Batter's Box regular Paul D takes a look at some late-summer reading.
After reading a review of Allan Schwarz's The Numbers Game: Baseball's Lifelong Fascination with Statistics written by Joe Sheehan at Baseball Prospectus, I decided to pick it up. I've enjoyed Schwarz's articles at ESPN, and thought that this would make an excellent summer read. I knew from the excerpt that it would be more interested in the people and characters behind the statistics, and not the statistics themselves. I imagined I'd get a quick, enjoyable read and perhaps even write a review for Batter's Box.
I didn't quite get what I'd expected, but it did prove to be an interesting read.
The first section of Schwarz's book is really a history of baseball statistics. He starts in the mid-to-late 19th century with a look at how the original boxscores were created, and what statistics were used at that time. The box score was quite different from what we would now recognize. Pitcher's weren't listed, as their contributions weren't deemed to be important, and the hitting stats that were listed were pretty odd. Schwarz briefly details the life of Henry Chadwick, one of the men most responsible for the genesis of baseball statistics as we know them. Chadwick was a British-born reporter for the New York Clipper. One of the fascinating aspects of baseball history is how much of what we consider "modern" knowledge has actually been known for a long time. Chadwick was not a proponent of using the number of errors a fielder committed as a way to evaluate defence, famously saying "the best player in nine is he who makes the most good plays in a match, not the one who commits the fewest errors".
However, Chadwick also believed that in order to assess a player's offensive contribution, you needed to be able to measure how many men he batted in (hence the birth of the RBI). Just like today, many newspaper columnists were not interested in using new techniques to evaluate a player: they'd believe their eyes, thank you very much. Of course, Chadwick was one of these newspaper men, and he could be as old school as the best of them: he thought players shouldn't try to hit homeruns, as it would tire them out too much.
Perhaps the most interesting character of baseball's early years (1920's) is Ferdinand Lane. While working with only paper, a pencil and a slide rule, Lane computed what each situation in baseball was worth. For example, a double contributes X number of runs, while a stolen base is worth Z number of runs. The numbers he come up with were very similar to those that Pete Palmer arrived at with his linear weights method. I suspect that you could write an entire book based on what Fred Lane learned about baseball.
Schwarz also tells the story of George Lindsay, a retired Canadian military man who created an early version of the run expectancy matrix (which has since been recreated multiple times), and Allan Roth, the Canadian born statistics guru of the Los Angeles Dodgers.
As hinted above, I did not find the early chapters of this book to be a quick read, and was somewhat disapointed. This book is meant to be the story of the people that developed the statistic, but the first part of the book reads more like a history of the statistics and the people that invented them. Also, by choosing to write about such a wide variety of people, there's very little flow. Schwarz follows a timeline, but there really isn't any reason why anyone is profiled, as one profile does not lead to the next. While I realize that this is a problem of the format and not of Schwarz as a writer, it meant that I had no qualms closing the book after finishing a chapter, and not picking it back up for a day or two.
Fortunately the second half of The Numbers Game is much stronger than the first. Coincedentally, the beginning of the more interesting parts of the novel coincides with Schwarz's profile of Bill James. Personally, I've never read any Bill James, although The Politics of Glory is next on my "to-read" list.
If you're like me, you may have thought that James invented many of the modern statistics and trends in baseball. Schwarz shows that this isn't true; despite what you've heard, James was not the first to emphasize on-base percentage. In fact, in the early years James didn't really emphasize on-base percentage at all. James was simply the first to popularize the idea of using the numbers to explain performances.
The main reason that the second half of The Numbers Game is more interesting, is the development of conflict. We see the war between James and the Elias sport bureau, the rise and fall of Mike Gimbel, the conflicts that tore apart STATS, Inc. and many more.
Furthermore, if you've read Moneyball, you may be under the impression that Billy Beane invented the use of statistics to gain an advantage in Oakland. Again, this isn't true. Forget Beane and Palmer and Epstein and James and the rest; the true hero of sabermetrics should be Eric Walker. While working in Oakland he caught the eye of Sandy Alderson, then an attorney with the A's. Alderson listened to his ideas about the value of on-base percentage, and was able to get those ideas implemented at the big league level. Alderson also had him work with many members of the A's, including a young Billy Beane.
There are literally dozens, if not hundreds of stories like that in The Numbers Game. I've barely scratched the surface of what goes on in this book. Almost every contributor to baseball statistic that you've heard of (such as the creator of Strat-O-Matic, the creator of rotisserie baseball, and the great Earl Weaver) and many that you haven't heard of, are briefly profiled in this book. Schwarz also details the struggles to keep accurate numbers, and reveals credible arguments that Babe Ruth should have one more homerun, and Ty Cobb one extra hit. Every chapter revealed at least one interesting fact that I'd never heard.
Upon finishing The Numbers Game, I realized that the Blue Jays, A's and Dodgers probably aren't as unique in their approaches as we like to think. The men who have worked with various statistical companies and teams include: Ed Wade, Gary Hunsicker, Eddie Epstein, Theo Epstein, Davey Johnson, Walt Jocketty, Ron Schueler, Bob Watson, Dusty Baker, Don Baylor, Dave Stewart, Tal Smith, Dan Evans, Kevin Towers and others.
Despite my initial hesitations, this is a great book for anyone interested in how the use of statistics has evolved in baseball. Schwarz does a good job of keeping the subject interesting, mainly by focusing on the debates and conflicts and personalities that surround the statistics, and not the statistics themselves. If you're looking for another baseball book to read this summer, pick up The Numbers Game: Baseball's Lifelong Fascination with Statistics.
Thanks, Paul D! If you are interested in sending a book review, article, or other submission to Batter's Box, we'd be happy to publish it as a Pinch Hit. Send contributions or ideas to craig@battersbox.ca
https://www.battersbox.ca/article.php?story=20040817101622999