Yikes. After some desultory play over their last dozen games, the Jays face a hungry and hot-hitting Red Sox club, playing in one of the most difficult parks in which to steal a series.
That said, the White Sox managed to do just that this weekend, thanks to a struggling Boston pitching staff. Between Derek Lowe and Tim Wakefield, the Jays might finally get to inject some power into their offensive attack. With Pedro going tomorrow night, though, Ted Lilly might have to win that game all by himself.
This week's Scout features a bevy of blistering bats, a blistered and battered starting pitcher and a much-maligned third base coach that, well, ought to be maligned.
On to the Advance Scout!
* Boston still plays the walk-and-power game effectively, leading the majors in on-base percentage and the AL in slugging ... The Bosox have won six of nine, and are in an improbable three-way tie with the Rangers and Angels for the AL wild card ... They have a balanced team, so what's holding them back? For starters, they've been snakebitten in one-run games, going just 8-17 on the season ... They run the bases poorly, and too aggressively for a slow squad ...
* For the first time ever, and despite ticket prices bordering on the absurd, the Red Sox will sell out their entire season ...
* Kevin Mill-AHH is red-hot at the plate, as he's riding a seven-game hitting streak (.458) ... Fenway is indeed friendly to the righthanded pull hitter, as he's putting up a monster .347/.413/.580 line at home ... Incredibly, eight of his thirteen home runs have come since the All-Star Break. He's a ridiculous .383/.444/.691 since the Midsummer Classic ... Millar made headlines by publicly criticizing Terry Francona's penchant for frequently juggling the team's batting order and defensive lineup. After racking up four hits and four RBI in his first four at-bats last Wednesday, though, Millar was in a more charitable mood: "I made a mistake...[Francona] said 'turn the page,' and we have" ... Francona responded graciously, noting that he had held firm in playing Millar regularly despite widespread Red Sox Nation dissatisfaction with his unproductive first half ... Millar's poor glove at first was ostensibly the reason for the Doug Mientkiewicz acquisition, but he's hitting too well to come out of the lineup now ...
* Tonight's starter, Derek Lowe, has continued to struggle ... The sinkerballer left Wednesday's game after 5 2/3 innings with a blister on his pitching thumb, and was charged with three runs (one earned) on eight hits. That start snapped a streak of nine consecutive appearances with at least four runs allowed ... His BB/K ratio is a mediocre 55/68 on the season ... His 4.68 home ERA is more than a full run better than his average away from Fenway ... His 10-10 records is misleading: He's received nine or more runs in support of fully eight of those wins ... Lowe on his untimely blister recurrence: "As far as the frustration level goes, it can't get any higher" ... The blister apparently only emerges on hot, humid days. Forecase tonight: Humid, but a cool 19C/67F ... Lowe has surrendered 24 stolen bases this season, tied with teammate -- knuckleballing teammate -- Tim Wakefield ... Thankfully, Lowe's family in Fort Myers, FL, was safe during Hurricane Charley. Lowe was prepared to fly to Florida and take leave from the club if any damage occurred ...
* Although career part-timer Gabe Kapler has hit .330 and slugged .557 against lefthanded pitching, he's put up rather poor .248/.293/.328 against righties ... Four of his five homers have come since the All-Star Break ... Kapler explained that his poor start in the midst of a pennant race has made this season "a tough year mentally" ... Francona recently praised Kapler for his ability to not play every day -- i.e., to be a content clubhouse man despite playing irregularly. Kapler took a pay cut from $3.4M to $750,000 to stay with the Red Sox and compete for a pennant this year ...
* One of the great hitters of our generation, Manny Ramirez is dangerous in all situations and against all pitchers ... Still, it's worth pointing out that he particularly beats up on lefties (.325/.459/.650) and pitchers that dare to venture into Fenway Park (.325/.415/.689) ... Ramirez is tied with teammate David Ortiz for the AL lead in home runs with 30 ... That said, he is slumping a bit of late. He's only hit .229/.302/.406 since the All-Star break ... Francona has been encouraged by Ramirez's swing of late, despite his decreased production: "Manny has the ability to strike out three times, and then twelve hours later hit three home runs" ...
* The dangerous Jason Varitek has hit in his last six starts behind the plate (.545), with 10 RBI over that span ... The switch-hitter is particularly dangerous from the right side, where he hits .333/.419/.539 ... He's another Fenway fanatic, where he rakes at a .341/.426/.535 rate ... He knocked in four runs last Wednesday on two doubles ... Varitek and Millar were the two hapless victims of Rocco Baldelli assists on Thursday afternoon ...
* Tomorrow's starter will be Pedro Martinez, who tossed his first complete game of the season on Thursday -- a six-hit shutout, with no walks and ten Ks against his personal whipping boys from Tampa Bay ... After going an unheard-of thirteen consecutive starts with single-digit strikeouts, he's put up 11, 11 and 10 over his last three outings ... His 97 double-digit games put him in a fourth-place tie with Sandy Koufax in baseball history ... He's been awesome in August at 2-0, 1.17 with 3 walks and 32 Ks ... He's put up a stingy 1.00 WHIP at Fenway Park this year ... He's 9-1 since Roy Halladay and the Jays beat him on May 16 ... Francona: "When it heats up, he seems to heat up" ... With 2590 strikeouts, Pedro has passed Bob Feller and Warren Spahn on the all-time list ... When he's not pitching, Pedro has become the official swinger of the "Rally Bat," a fine Nerf product that he swings wildly in the dugout whenever Ramirez or Ortiz are hitting ...
* Notwithstanding his actual ethnic origin or the precise number of bases on balls he draws, Kevin Youkilis has been tagged by Michael Lewis with the nickname "Greek God of Walks" -- and like it or not, it's stuck ... He's hit in eight of his last nine (.333) ... The Bosox expected him to produce offensively, and it's been a bonus that he's impressed both with his defensive effort and his seamless entry into the clubhouse ... Youkilis injured his ankle in getting thrown out at the plate (a theme with this team) yesterday. Sandy Alomar Jr. blocked the plate effectively, and Youkilis got tangled up with Alomar's shinguard ... X-rays were negative and he could play this series ... Alomar was also hurt on the play ... Youkilis is in fact a Romanian Jew, and he and Kapler comprise 20% of the Jewish population in the majors ...
* Leadoff man Johnny Damon rips righties to the tune of .311/.396/.502 ... Twelve of his thirteen home runs have come off righthanded pitching ... Damon's use-the-whole-field approach at the plate works well at home, where he hits .336/.415/.473 ... Damon reached base four times last Wednesday ... Last Wednesday, Damon took the unusual step of lobbying the official scorer after the game to charge him with an error. The Tino Martinez drive to deep centre was originally scored a double, but Damon reasoned that he should have made the play since it kicked off his glove, and since he didn't leave his feet to make the attempt ... The official scorer did indeed make the change ...
* Old friend Mike Timlin has been dreadful in August, putting up a 14.73 ERA and .389 opposing batting average in six appearances ... He's given up ten runs in twelve innings pitched since the All-Star break ... In his career against his former team, Timlin's notched a 3.44 ERA with 8 walks and 38 strikeouts ...
* Lefty Alan Embree hasn't fared much better of late, yielding a .371 opposing average and a 5.87 ERA since the break ... Lefties hit .273 off him, but he hasn't really been used as a LOOGY. He's actually faced more righthanded hitters than left on the season ...
* David Ortiz has hit in five of his last six (.429), with seven runs scored and seven RBI ... At an impressive RBI total of 105, Ortiz has already set a personal best ... A LOOGY would come in handy for Ortiz purposes. Although he clobbers righties at a .338/.406/.710 clip, lefties limit the big man to a more modest .255/.321/.426 ... 26 of his 30 homers have come against righties ... On Saturday, Ortiz went deep twice, including the game-winner, despite being kept up all night by five-week-old D'Angelo Ortiz ...
* Bill Mueller is also on the offensive upswing, having hit in five of his last six (.500) with seven runs scored ... Strangely, the switch-hitting infielder puts up similar numbers from each side of the plate -- except for patience. For some reason, 28 of his 32 walks have come from the left side ... He's yet another killer hitter at home, going .323/.397/.551 at Fenway ... With Mark Bellhorn on the disabled list, Mueller's had to play second of late, where his less-than-soft hands have been exposed ... Hitting coach Ron Jackson said that Mueller's knee is 100% for the first time this season. He came off the DL on July 2 ...
* Closer Keith Foulke has held opponents to a .105 average over five outings in August ... He's posted a microscopic 0.70 ERA against the Jays in his career, tops against any AL opponent ...
* Doug Mirabelli continues to play only as Tim Wakefield's personal catcher ... In a small sample of 30 at-bats, Mirabelli has ripped three doubles and three homers off lefties (.367/.424/.767) ... He's worn out the Jays in his four starts against Toronto this year at .333/.429/.833 ...
* Wednesday's starter will be Wakefield, who has been tagged for an unsightly 14 gopher balls over his last six starts ... That said, he's been 3-2 with a no-decision over that span ... I attended his outing last Sunday in Detroit, and he was full value for his six home runs allowed ... Lefties hit .241 off him, and righties have hit 15 of the 22 home runs he's allowed overall. Switch-hitting Dmitri Young batted righthanded against Wake ... Francona unsurprisingly blames Wakefield's recent struggles on his dangerously high location of late: "The long ball has been hurting him for sure" ...
* He'd better bring his glove to work each day, because Doug Mientkiewicz is only slugging .324 as a Bosox platooner ... He struggles against lefthanded pitching, going .222/.311/.324 on the season ... As a Twin, he put up a .250/.318/.250 line in 20 at-bats against the Jays this year ...
* Ditto for Orlando Cabrera, who has hit just .203/.230/.322 since the blockbuster deal ... He's been dreadful against righthanded pitching all season, putting up meagre .219/.265/.295 numbers ... He's only hitting .207/.233/.241 at Fenway Park ... Cabrera blames his struggles on "trying too hard" since the trade ...
* Yet another deadline acquisition, Dave Roberts, has been used sparingly, going 2-for-9 with a single, double and walk in his pinch-hitting and defensive-replacement role ... Although he went an amazing 33 for 34 on the basepaths in Los Angeles, he hasn't yet attempted a steal in Boston ... Roberts stranded three runners by fanning on a 65 mph changeup from Shingo Takatsu in yesterday's loss ... Francona: "I think Dave realizes I'd like to play him more...It just hasn't worked out so far" ...
* The news isn't good for last season's bullpen acquisition, Scott Williamson ... Tests in Cincinnati showed a potential tear of the MCL in his pitching elbow. If confirmed, the righty will need a second Tommy John procedure ... Regardless, he's done for the season ... Pokey Reese (strained oblique) and Ellis Burks (knee surgery) are both not expected back until September at the earliest ... Curtis Leskanic could return soon ...
* Wakefield and Damon held a successful fundraiser for the Franciscan Hospital for Children last week ...
* After two horrible decisions to send plodding Red Sox to the plate against Baldelli's throwing arm, Dale Sveum earned standing ovations from the Fenway crowd for finally putting up a stop sign in the sixth inning on Thursday ... Sveum: "You don't go through 162 games and not get anybody thrown out...I'm confident in my decisions, my ability and my instincts" ... For his part, Francona grumbled that if Baldelli "wins a Gold Glove, he can thank us" ...
* Cranky old Dan Shaugnessy flashed some rare optimism in his Friday column: "[T]he Sox are suddenly...playing like the team with the second-highest payroll in baseball" ... Meanwhile, the entertaining Jerry Remy continues to resist a full-time national baseball gig, despite his occasional appearances on Fox's MLB coverage. He recently expressed his hope to be one of the Red Sox voices for life ...
* Curt Schilling has become famous in the baseball blogging community for his occasional appearances on the Sons of Sam Horn website ... Meanwhile, "Curt on a car phone" has called in to the raucuous WEEI sports talk show at least four times this season, including once last week, to vent. When asked for his thoughts on the departed Nomar Garciaparra, Curt replied cryptically -- his comments included the loaded observation that "Derek Jeter is a winner" ...
Probable Batting Orders
vs. LH
8 Damon/Kapler
5 Mueller/Youkilis
7 Ramirez
DH Ortiz
2 Varitek
6 Cabrera
3 Mientkiewicz/Millar
4 Gutierrez/Mueller
9 Kapler/Millar
vs. RH
8 Damon
5 Youkilis
7 Ramirez
DH Ortiz
9/3 Millar
2 Varitek/Mirabelli
6 Cabrera
4 Mueller
3 Mientkiewicz/9 Kapler
Pitching Probables
Monday: RH Lowe vs. Miller
Tuesday: RH Martinez vs. Lilly
Wednesday: RH Wakefield vs. Batista
Bullpen Usage
Long: Mendoza R
Short: M Myers L, Timlin R, Adams R
Setup: Embree L
Closer: Foulke R
https://www.battersbox.ca/article.php?story=20040816054521999