The Jays O-Woes

Monday, August 16 2004 @ 01:39 AM EDT

Contributed by: Pepper Moffatt

As I mentioned in another thread I was looking at the Current Equivalent Averages page at Baseball Prospectus and I was stunned to find that Frank Menechino is leading the Blue Jays in "Runs Above Replacement Player". I decided to look closer at the stats provided to see what else I could learn about the Jays woeful 2004 offense.

I decided to examine two statistics. The first RAP stands for "Runs Above Position" that shows how many runs a player has produced over the average hitter at his position. The second RARP or "Runs Above Replacement Position" shows how many runs a player has produced over a replacement level player at his position.

Baseball Prospectus compares players at the position they've played the most at this year to determine RAP and RARP. I decided to sort the Jays by position to see how they've performed. Since some players such as Dave Berg have played at many positions this year please take these figures with a grain of salt. Without comment, here are your 2004 Toronto Blue Jays:


Player	POSN	PA	RAP	RARP
Zaun	C	288	7.5	15.5
Estale'	C	17	0.1	0.5
Cash	C	172	-10.1	-4.7
TOTAL		477	-2.5	11.3
				
Delgado	1B	347	-4.4	8.8
				
Menech'	2B	201	13.1	18.7
Hudson	2B	349	1.1	11.9
TOTAL		550	14.2	30.6
				
Hinske	3B	455	-15.1	1.1
				
Gomez	SS	313	-5.9	4.0
Woody	SS	167	-7.7	-2.0
TOTAL		480	-13.6	2.0
				
Rios	RF	273	-6.6	3.4
Reed	RF	449	-15.3	1.3
Howie	RF	128	-8.1	-3.0
TOTAL		850	-30.0	1.7
				
Wells	CF	403	4.6	18.0
				
Cat	LF	246	-3.2	5.8
Gross	LF	14	-0.2	0.3
Herman'	LF	7	-1.5	-1.1
Berg	LF	144	-10.1	-4.3
TOTAL		411	-15.0	0.7
				
Myers	DH	20	-1.0	-0.3
Phelps	DH	320	-15.3	-2.3
Pond	DH	55	-6.0	-3.7
TOTAL		395	-22.3	-6.3

To better see where the Jays are weak with the stick, here are the totals for each position:


POSN	PA	RAP	RARP
2B	550	14.2	30.6
CF	403	4.6	18.0
C	477	-2.5	11.3
1B	347	-4.4	8.8
SS	480	-13.6	2.0
RF	850	-30.0	1.7
3B	455	-15.1	1.1
LF	411	-15.0	0.7
DH	395	-22.3	-6.3
TOTAL	4368	-84.1	67.9

If the Jays had average hitters at each position, they would have scored an extra 84 runs this season and won an extra 8 or 9 games.

There's a few things that jumped out at me here. This is by no means an exhaustive list, so I'd like to hear what you spotted:

The Jays are getting killed at the corners and DH: Five of the bottom six of the Jays positions are what we'd normally consider power positions. Keep in mind that RAP and RARP rank players relative to other players at the same position, but we can still see that DH, the corner outfield spots, and third base are weak offensive points for the Jays.
What ever happened to Eric Hinske? Eric has shown big platoon splits in the past, but is hitting lefties and righties equally badly this season. Is there a way to get Hinske back on track or to get more production at the third base position? Would playing Menechino at third against tough lefties be a good idea?
Do the Jays really need a shortstop? Getting a "name player" at short has been one of the wishes of Bauxites for the past couple of months. However, batting wise, short isn't their weakest position, and the Jays do have a couple of good middle infielders in the minors. Would the money be better spent on a big bat or two?

What are these stats telling you?

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