Bullpen, Bull$&!#

Sunday, August 15 2004 @ 09:01 AM EDT

Contributed by: Pistol

After today's bullpen implosion there were many frustrated Bauxites in the game thread.

Mike in CT asked 'How many more games would the Jays have won this year if they had even an average major league bullpen?'

First, here's a look at the bullpen to see how they stack up against the rest of MLB, in various statistics:

Save Percentage


Rank	Team	               Saves Save Opp	sv%
1	Los Angeles Dodgers	38	45	84.4%
2	New York Yankees	43	53	81.1%
3	Minnesota Twins	        38	47	80.9%
4	Texas Rangers	        36	45	80.0%
5	Tampa Bay Devil Rays	27	34	79.4%
6	St. Louis Cardinals	38	49	77.6%
7	Chicago White Sox	25	34	73.5%
8	Atlanta Braves	        31	43	72.1%
9	Anaheim Angels	        36	50	72.0%
10	Milwaukee Brewers	35	50	70.0%
11	Florida Marlins	        37	53	69.8%
12	Montreal Expos	        25	36	69.4%
13	Boston Red Sox	        21	31	67.7%
14	Chicago Cubs	        30	45	66.7%
15	Toronto Blue Jays	24	36	66.7%
16	Baltimore Orioles	21	32	65.6%
17	San Diego Padres	34	52	65.4%
18	Pittsburgh Pirates	34	52	65.4%
19	Philadelphia Phillies	30	46	65.2%
20	New York Mets	        25	40	62.5%
21	Houston Astros	        29	48	60.4%
22	San Francisco Giants	32	53	60.4%
23	Cincinnati Reds	        37	62	59.7%
24	Colorado Rockies	29	49	59.2%
25	Detroit Tigers	        26	45	57.8%
26	Arizona Diamondbacks	20	35	57.1%
27	Kansas City Royals	20	36	55.6%
28	Seattle Mariners	21	39	53.8%
29	Oakland Athletics	23	43	53.5%
30	Cleveland Indians	23	48	47.9%

The Jays rank 15th out of 30 teams. That's about as average as you can get.

Winning percentage


Rank	Team	                 W	 L	Win %
1	Texas Rangers	        23	10	69.7%
2	Los Angeles Dodgers	21	10	67.7%
3	St. Louis Cardinals	20	10	66.7%
4	Tampa Bay Devil Rays	18	11	62.1%
5	New York Yankees	18	11	62.1%
6	Minnesota Twins	        25	16	61.0%
7	Atlanta Braves	        18	12	60.0%
8	San Diego Padres	17	13	56.7%
9	Chicago Cubs	        18	14	56.3%
10	Anaheim Angels	        17	14	54.8%
11	Baltimore Orioles	19	16	54.3%
12	Cincinnati Reds	        23	20	53.5%
13	Milwaukee Brewers	15	14	51.7%
14	Pittsburgh Pirates	19	18	51.4%
15	Philadelphia Phillies	20	19	51.3%
16	Chicago White Sox	15	15	50.0%
17	New York Mets	        20	21	48.8%
18	Oakland Athletics	18	19	48.6%
19	Boston Red Sox	        14	15	48.3%
20	San Francisco Giants	20	22	47.6%
21	Florida Marlins	        17	19	47.2%
22	Cleveland Indians	24	27	47.1%
23	Seattle Mariners	19	23	45.2%
24	Kansas City Royals	15	19	44.1%
25	Detroit Tigers	        14	19	42.4%
26	Montreal Expos	        14	20	41.2%
27	Colorado Rockies	15	23	39.5%
28	Arizona Diamondbacks	12	20	37.5%
29	Toronto Blue Jays	13	24	35.1%
30	Houston Astros	        11	21	34.4%

Ouch. 29th out of 30

ERA


Rank	Team	                 ERA
1	Los Angeles Dodgers	2.94
2	St. Louis Cardinals	2.99
3	San Diego Padres	3.37
4	Anaheim Angels	        3.42
5	Atlanta Braves	        3.42
6	Pittsburgh Pirates	3.51
7	Texas Rangers	        3.64
8	Minnesota Twins	        3.71
9	Tampa Bay Devil Rays	3.71
10	Chicago Cubs	        3.73
11	New York Yankees	3.73
12	Boston Red Sox	        3.81
13	Philadelphia Phillies	3.83
14	Chicago White Sox	3.84
15	Milwaukee Brewers	3.86
16	New York Mets	        4.00
17	Florida Marlins	        4.04
18	Montreal Expos	        4.15
19	Baltimore Orioles	4.16
20	Kansas City Royals	4.17
21	Oakland Athletics	4.17
22	Houston Astros	        4.27
23	Detroit Tigers	        4.41
24	Toronto Blue Jays	4.65
25	Seattle Mariners	4.76
26	Arizona Diamondbacks	4.79
27	Cincinnati Reds	        5.11
28	San Francisco Giants	5.14
29	Cleveland Indians	5.32
30	Colorado Rockies	5.34

The Jays would have to be almost 0.80 runs better to be 'average'.

Fielding Independent ERA


Rank	Team	                K/9	BB/9	HR/9	FIP
1	Minnesota Twins	        8.3	3.5	0.7	3.28
2	Anaheim Angels	        9.3	3.6	0.8	3.30
3	Los Angeles Dodgers	8.3	3.5	0.7	3.35
4	St. Louis Cardinals	6.6	3.0	0.8	3.69
5	New York Mets	        7.5	3.6	0.8	3.71
6	Atlanta Braves	        7.1	2.9	0.9	3.74
7	Boston Red Sox	        7.1	3.5	0.8	3.78
8	New York Yankees	6.3	2.9	0.9	3.81
9	Texas Rangers	        7.2	3.7	0.8	3.85
10	Baltimore Orioles	8.1	4.8	0.7	3.87
11	San Diego Padres	7.9	3.5	1.0	3.88
12	Pittsburgh Pirates	6.7	3.7	0.8	3.95
13	Milwaukee Brewers	6.3	2.7	1.0	3.99
14	Oakland Athletics	7.4	3.6	1.1	4.14
15	Tampa Bay Devil Rays	6.9	3.7	1.0	4.16
16	Philadelphia Phillies	6.4	3.0	1.1	4.21
17	Chicago White Sox	7.0	3.8	1.0	4.25
18	Houston Astros	        9.2	3.5	1.5	4.26
19	Chicago Cubs	        8.2	4.4	1.1	4.27
20	Florida Marlins	        7.6	4.4	1.0	4.27
21	Montreal Expos	        6.7	3.8	1.1	4.30
22	Kansas City Royals	6.5	4.1	1.0	4.32
23	Toronto Blue Jays	6.9	4.3	1.0	4.34
24	Cleveland Indians	7.8	3.7	1.3	4.39
25	Detroit Tigers	        6.5	4.0	1.2	4.65
26	Seattle Mariners	6.7	4.2	1.2	4.70
27	Arizona Diamondbacks	7.5	5.2	1.1	4.70
28	Cincinnati Reds	        5.9	3.6	1.4	4.93
29	San Francisco Giants	6.1	4.1	1.3	4.93
30	Colorado Rockies	6.4	4.6	1.3	5.02

Here the Jays rank 23rd in baseball (all stats are unadjusted).

So back to the original question: How many games would the Jays be with an average bullpen?

The Jays' bullpen has pitched 338.2 innings this season with an ERA of 4.65. An average bullpen ERA would be 3.93. Doing a little algebra tells me to get to an ERA of 3.93 the Jays' pen would have had to have given up 27 less runs.

I believe that 10 runs = 1 win, so if the Jays had an average bullpen (using unadjusted ERA) the Jays would have 2.7 more wins, and I'll round it up to 3 because it's been a frustrating season.

30 comments

https://www.battersbox.ca/article.php?story=20040815090118999