Minor Context: League Averages & Blue Jay Hitting Prospects

Friday, August 13 2004 @ 07:36 AM EDT

Contributed by: Jonny German

For a team that concentrated very heavily on pitching in the 2002 and 2003 amateur drafts and has called up two of its top hitting prospects already this season, the Toronto Blue Jays still have an abundance of interesting hitters in their farm system.

This article is the hitting equivalent to the look at pitching prospects I posted two weeks ago. We begin with a look at league norms for professional baseball in North America; data courtesy of Clay Davenport at Baseball Prospectus.

Table 1: League Averages

League	LEV	AB	GPA	AVG	OBP	SLG	IsoD	IsoP
PIO	R+	13,640	.279	.286	.379	.432	.093	.146
PCL	AAA	63,279	.272	.284	.354	.452	.070	.168
CAL	A+	39,494	.264	.278	.352	.422	.074	.144
INT	AAA	54,437	.261	.271	.340	.431	.069	.160
AL	MLB	54,194	.260	.270	.338	.431	.068	.161
TEX	AA	30,696	.256	.270	.343	.408	.073	.138
NL	MLB	60,624	.255	.263	.333	.422	.070	.159
EAS	AA	46,024	.254	.263	.337	.409	.074	.146
SAL	A	60,370	.253	.260	.340	.401	.080	.141
NWN	A-	13,675	.253	.260	.343	.395	.083	.135
APP	R+	15,445	.251	.261	.343	.388	.082	.127
SOU	AA	37,017	.251	.261	.333	.403	.072	.142
CAR	A+	29,824	.249	.264	.339	.384	.075	.120
FLA	A+	44,291	.244	.257	.333	.375	.076	.118
MID	A	52,998	.243	.255	.329	.381	.074	.126
NYP	A-	23,371	.238	.251	.325	.365	.074	.114
Overall avg:	39,961	.255	.266	.341	.406	.075	.140

Next, the stats of individual Blue Jay prospects. The "Age" given in the tables below is 2004 Baseball Age; league average age is for hitters only and calculated as of July 1, 2003. Brackets are used to denote players who have moved on to another level of the farm system. Eric Crozier and John Hattig are marked with an asterisk (*) as they spent most of this season with the Buffalo Bisons and Portland SeaDogs, respectively. For both, I'm using their season totals. Thanks to Baseball America for stats for players from Triple-A down to A-ball, and to MinorLeagueBaseball.com for Short-season A-ball stats and Rookie level stats.

Table 2: Unadjusted Stats Of Blue Jay Prospects

Triple-A Syracuse SkyChiefs

Name          	Age	AB	GPA	AVG	OBP	SLG	IsoD	IsoP
Eric Crozier*	25	303	.314	.297	.377	.578	.080	.281
Howie Clark	30	155	.296	.303	.414	.439	.111	.136
(Gabe Gross)	24	377	.285	.294	.381	.454	.087	.160
Glenn Williams	26	392	.267	.260	.320	.492	.060	.232
Julius Matos	29	196	.264	.301	.341	.444	.040	.143
Anton French	28	156	.263	.269	.343	.436	.074	.167
Russ Adams	23	382	.256	.277	.353	.390	.076	.113
Simon Pond	27	269	.250	.268	.316	.431	.048	.163
G. Quiroz	22	186	.247	.226	.318	.414	.092	.188
Jorge Sequea	23	257	.238	.257	.332	.354	.075	.097
(Alexis Rios)	23	185	.225	.259	.292	.373	.033	.114
League      	27.6	-	.261	.271	.340	.431	.069	.160

Double-A New Hampshire Fisher Cats

Name         	Age	AB	GPA	AVG	OBP	SLG	IsoD	IsoP
John Hattig*	24	311	.311	.293	.405	.514	.112	.221
(Anton French)	28	124	.282	.282	.362	.476	.080	.194
JF Griffin	24	371	.264	.245	.333	.456	.088	.211
Aaron Hill	22	402	.258	.279	.357	.388	.078	.109
Dominic Rich	24	420	.253	.271	.350	.383	.079	.112
Tyrell Godwin	24	426	.240	.256	.327	.373	.071	.117
Maikel Jova	23	387	.237	.276	.298	.413	.022	.137
League      	25.0	-	.254	.263	.337	.409	.074	.146

High-A Dunedin Blue Jays

Name         	Age	AB	GPA	AVG	OBP	SLG	IsoD	IsoP
Raul Tablado	22	260	.312	.308	.358	.604	.050	.296
Big Vito	23	393	.288	.282	.384	.461	.102	.179
Ron Davenport	22	365	.284	.285	.349	.507	.064	.222
Carlo Cota	23	382	.272	.296	.360	.440	.064	.144
Miguel Negron	21	310	.258	.271	.348	.406	.077	.135
Ryan Roberts	23	147	.258	.272	.358	.388	.086	.116
John Schneider	24	153	.249	.190	.365	.340	.175	.150
Jayce Tingler	23	373	.248	.252	.384	.300	.132	.048
(Rodney Medina)	22	197	.241	.259	.321	.386	.062	.127
Manny Mayorson	21	267	.194	.228	.289	.255	.061	.027
League      	23.2	-	.244	.257	.333	.375	.076	.118

Single-A Charleston Alley Cats

Name         	Age	AB	GPA	AVG	OBP	SLG	IsoD	IsoP
(Ryan Roberts)	23	226	.322	.283	.440	.496	.157	.213
Clint Johnston	27	386	.287	.269	.390	.446	.121	.177
Chris Snavely	22	265	.279	.249	.362	.464	.113	.215
Joey Reiman	23	324	.277	.290	.380	.423	.090	.133
David Smith	23	347	.272	.268	.363	.435	.095	.167
Jermy Acey	23	118	.262	.297	.366	.390	.069	.093
Mike Galloway	21	338	.236	.249	.317	.373	.068	.124
Robinzon Diaz	20	353	.229	.272	.319	.343	.047	.071
Juan Peralta	21	356	.197	.225	.282	.281	.057	.056
League      	22.3	-	.253	.260	.340	.401	.080	.141

Short-Season-A Auburn Doubledays

Name         	Age	AB	GPA	AVG	OBP	SLG	IsoD	IsoP
Brian Hall	22	149	.307	.302	.388	.530	.086	.223
Chip Cannon	22	148	.291	.291	.344	.547	.053	.256
Curtis Thigpen	21	108	.286	.287	.358	.500	.071	.214
Adam Lind	20	180	.285	.322	.374	.467	.052	.182
Joe Metropoulos	20	80	.282	.275	.363	.475	.088	.193
Eric Nielsen	22	147	.278	.279	.373	.442	.094	.164
Ryan Klosterman	22	172	.277	.297	.363	.453	.066	.176
Jarad Mangioni	20	94	.273	.277	.358	.447	.081	.174
Vinny Esposito	23	136	.243	.243	.335	.368	.092	.125
Aaron Mathews	22	190	.239	.274	.346	.332	.072	.093
League      	21.9	-	.238	.251	.325	.365	.074	.114

Rookie Pulaski Blue Jays

Name         	Age	AB	GPA	AVG	OBP	SLG	IsoD	IsoP
Chuck Anderson	22	125	.335	.320	.437	.552	.117	.217
Yuber Rodriguez	20	168	.321	.321	.412	.542	.091	.221
Nick Thomas	21	126	.307	.278	.413	.484	.135	.177
Eugenio Velez	22	104	.282	.298	.365	.471	.067	.189
Brian Bormaster	22	108	.259	.241	.344	.417	.103	.158
L. Hetherington	21	148	.251	.243	.329	.412	.086	.161
Jay Ashford	20	112	.247	.241	.325	.402	.084	.155
Emmanuel Sena	19	126	.226	.214	.344	.286	.130	.060
League      	20.9	-	.251	.261	.343	.388	.082	.127

As I did with the pitchers, I translated this data into league-adjusted numbers. These numbers are normalized, such that 100 is the league average, higher is better. At-bats are included so the reader can adjudge for himself if the sample sizes are large enough to be meaningful.

Table 3: Stats Of Blue Jay Prospects, Normalized To League

Triple-A Syracuse SkyChiefs

Name         	Age	AB	GPA	AVG	OBP	SLG	IsoD	IsoP
Eric Crozier*	25	303	120	110	111	134	116	176
Howie Clark	30	155	114	112	122	102	161	85
(Gabe Gross)	24	377	109	108	112	105	126	100
Glenn Williams	26	392	102	96	94	114	87	145
Julius Matos	29	196	101	111	100	103	58	89
Anton French	28	156	101	99	101	101	107	104
Russ Adams	23	382	98	102	104	90	110	71
Simon Pond	27	269	96	99	93	100	70	102
G. Quiroz	22	186	95	83	94	96	133	118
Jorge Sequea	23	257	91	95	98	82	109	61
(Alexis Rios)	23	185	86	96	86	87	48	71

Double-A New Hampshire Fisher Cats

Name         	Age	AB	GPA	AVG	OBP	SLG	IsoD	IsoP
John Hattig*	24	311	122	111	120	126	151	151
(Anton French)	28	124	111	107	107	116	108	133
JF Griffin	24	371	104	93	99	111	119	145
Aaron Hill	22	402	101	106	106	95	105	75
Dominic Rich	24	420	100	103	104	94	107	77
Tyrell Godwin	24	426	95	97	97	91	96	80
Maikel Jova	23	387	93	105	88	101	30	94

High-A Dunedin Blue Jays

Name         	Age	AB	GPA	AVG	OBP	SLG	IsoD	IsoP
Raul Tablado	22	260	128	120	108	161	66	251
Big Vito	23	393	118	110	115	123	134	152
Ron Davenport	22	365	117	111	105	135	84	188
Carlo Cota	23	382	112	115	108	117	84	122
Miguel Negron	21	310	106	105	105	108	101	114
Ryan Roberts	23	147	106	106	108	103	113	98
John Schneider	24	153	102	74	110	91	230	127
Jayce Tingler	23	373	102	98	115	80	174	41
(Rodney Medina)	22	197	99	101	96	103	82	108
Manny Mayorson	21	267	80	89	87	68	80	23

Single-A Charleston Alley Cats

Name         	Age	AB	GPA	AVG	OBP	SLG	IsoD	IsoP
(Ryan Roberts)	23	226	127	109	129	124	196	151
Clint Johnston	27	386	113	103	115	111	151	126
Chris Snavely	22	265	110	96	106	116	141	152
Joey Reiman	23	324	109	112	112	105	113	94
David Smith	23	347	107	103	107	108	119	118
Jermy Acey	23	118	104	114	108	97	86	66
Mike Galloway	21	338	93	96	93	93	85	88
Robinzon Diaz	20	353	91	105	94	86	59	50
Juan Peralta	21	356	78	87	83	70	71	40

Short-Season-A Auburn Doubledays

Name         	Age	AB	GPA	AVG	OBP	SLG	IsoD	IsoP
Brian Hall	22	149	129	120	119	145	117	195
Chip Cannon	22	148	123	116	106	150	71	224
Curtis Thigpen	21	108	121	114	110	137	96	188
Adam Lind	20	180	120	128	115	128	71	159
Joe Metropoulos	20	80	119	110	112	130	118	169
Eric Nielsen	22	147	117	111	115	121	127	144
Ryan Klosterman	22	172	116	118	112	124	89	155
Jarad Mangioni	20	94	115	110	110	122	110	153
Vinny Esposito	23	136	102	97	103	101	125	110
Aaron Mathews	22	190	100	109	106	91	97	82

Rookie Pulaski Blue Jays

Name         	Age	AB	GPA	AVG	OBP	SLG	IsoD	IsoP
Chuck Anderson	22	125	133	123	127	142	143	171
Yuber Rodriguez	20	168	128	123	120	140	111	174
Nick Thomas	21	126	122	107	120	125	165	140
Eugenio Velez	22	104	112	114	106	121	82	149
Brian Bormaster	22	108	103	92	100	107	126	124
L. Hetherington	21	148	100	93	96	106	105	127
Jay Ashford	20	112	98	92	95	104	103	122
Emmanuel Sena	19	126	90	82	100	74	159	47

Thanks to park factors supplied by Clay Davenport at Baseball Prospectus, we can now take things one step further and adjust for park. Clay's park factors are "run" park factors, meaning they indicate how much a park suppresses or promotes run-scoring. Of the stats I've included in the tables above, only GPA (Gross Production Average) purports to be a measure of overall offensive production, so it is the only stat I will apply the park factors to. Before we get to this final adjustment, here are the relevant park factors.

Table 4: Park Factors

Team        	Level	Park Factor
Toronto   	MLB	1050
Syracuse  	AAA	1044
Buffalo  	AAA	989
New Hampshire	AA	978
Portland   	AA	1034
Dunedin  	A+	1049
Charleston WV	A	1036
Auburn   	A-	1005
Pulaski    	R+	1010

As 2004 park factors were not available for Auburn and Pulaski, I'm using 2003 park factors as given in Baseball Prospectus 2004. Buffalo is included above as its factor was applied to Eric Crozier's totals in Table 5 below. Similarly, Portland was used for John Hattig.

Table 5: GPA Of Blue Jay Prospects, Normalized To League And Park-Adjusted

Players With 200 Or More At-Bats

Name          	Age	Level	AB	GPA+
---------------	-------	-------	-------	-------
Raul Tablado	22	A+	260	125
(Ryan Roberts)	23	A	226	125
Eric Crozier*	25	AAA	303	121
John Hattig*	24	AA	311	120
Big Vito	23	A+	393	115
---------------	-------	-------	-------	-------
Ron Davenport	22	A+	365	114
Clint Johnston	27	A	386	111
Carlo Cota	23	A+	382	109
Chris Snavely	22	A	265	108
Joey Reiman	23	A	324	107
---------------	-------	-------	-------	-------
(Gabe Gross)	24	AAA	377	107
David Smith	23	A	347	106
JF Griffin	24	AA	371	105
Miguel Negron	21	A+	310	103
Aaron Hill	22	AA	402	103
---------------	-------	-------	-------	-------
Dominic Rich	24	AA	420	101
Glenn Williams	26	AAA	392	100
Jayce Tingler	23	A+	373	99
Russ Adams	23	AAA	382	96
Tyrell Godwin	24	AA	426	96
---------------	-------	-------	-------	-------
Maikel Jova	23	AA	387	95
Simon Pond	27	AAA	269	94
Mike Galloway	21	A	338	91
Jorge Sequea	23	AAA	257	89
Robinzon Diaz	20	A	353	89
---------------	-------	-------	-------	-------
Manny Mayorson	21	A+	267	78
Juan Peralta	21	A	356	76

Players With Less Than 200 At-Bats

Name       	Age	Level	AB	GPA+
---------------	-------	-------	-------	-------
Chuck Anderson	22	R+	125	132
Brian Hall	22	A-	149	129
Yuber Rodriguez	20	R+	168	127
Chip Cannon	22	A-	148	122
Nick Thomas	21	R+	126	121
---------------	-------	-------	-------	-------
Curtis Thigpen	21	A-	108	120
Adam Lind	20	A-	180	120
Joe Metropoulos	20	A-	80	118
Eric Nielsen	22	A-	147	117
Ryan Klosterman	22	A-	172	116
---------------	-------	-------	-------	-------
Jarad Mangioni	20	A-	94	115
(Anton French)	28	AA	124	112
Eugenio Velez	22	R+	104	112
Howie Clark	30	AAA	155	111
Ryan Roberts	23	A+	147	103
---------------	-------	-------	-------	-------
Brian Bormaster	22	R+	108	103
Vinny Esposito	23	A-	136	102
Jermy Acey	23	A	118	102
Aaron Mathews	22	A-	190	100
John Schneider	24	A+	153	100
---------------	-------	-------	-------	-------
L. Hetherington	21	R+	148	99
Julius Matos	29	AAA	196	99
Anton French	28	AAA	156	99
Jay Ashford	20	R+	112	98
(Rodney Medina)	22	A+	197	96
---------------	-------	-------	-------	-------
G. Quiroz	22	AAA	186	92
Emmanuel Sena	19	R+	126	90
(Alexis Rios)	23	AAA	185	84

This table is by no means a prospect ranking; GPA is an estimation of a player's performance, not a complete measure. More importantly, age and defence have not been considered, nevermind 'tools' or injuries or performance prior to 2004. I do find this data instructive to the question of which players look ready for promotion; My buddy Charles Anderson, at 22 years old and causing nightmares for Rookie-level pitchers, should be on his way up real soon. Meanwhile, previously unheralded Raul Tablado is looking like the real deal. Any questions about why J.P. was interested in acquiring Hattig and Crozier? Didn't think so.

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