Cy Guys

Sunday, August 08 2004 @ 09:25 AM EDT

Contributed by: Gwyn

In The Neyer/James Guide to Pitchers Bill James introduced a formula designed to pick the Cy Young award winner (not it should be noted necessarily the best pitcher in the league, but, the pitcher most likely to be thought the best by the Cy Young voters).

The formula is:
wins times 6
minus losses times 2
plus strikeouts divided by 12
plus saves times 2.5
plus shutouts
plus runs saved
plus 12 points for pitching for a division winner

(Runs Saved James calculates as ((5-era)/9)*innings pitched)

James claims 'the system picks the actual winner of the Cy Young award more than 80 percent of the time, and often picks the top finishers in something near their voter order'.

Here are the year-to-date leaders in both leagues:

AL
Player Team IP ERA W L SV SHO K CY score
Rivera Yankees 58 1.55 3 1 38 0 46 149.06
Mulder As 162 3.5 15 3 0 1 110 133.17
Nathan Twins 49.2 0.91 1 0 31 0 57 122.58
Cordero Rangers 46.1 1.95 2 0 33 0 51 114.36
Schilling Red Sox 154.2 3.39 13 5 0 0 137 107.08
Santana Twins 152.2 3.31 10 6 0 1 173 103.97
Vazquez Yankees 148.2 4.07 13 6 0 0 114 102.83
Rogers Rangers 142.2 4.3 13 4 0 1 81 88.75
Martinez Red Sox 143.2 4.09 11 4 0 0 143 84.47
Brown Yankees 95 3.6 9 1 0 0 60 83.78

NL
Player Team IP ERA W L SV SHO K CY score
Gagne Dodgers 54.2 1.66 4 1 32 0 79 140.69
Schmidt Giants 157.2 2.75 14 4 0 2 175 131.92
Benetiz Marlins 50.1 1.26 2 1 33 0 45 117.08
Clemens Astros 143.1 2.7 12 3 0 0 147 114.75
Isringhausen Cardinals 54.1 2.5 3 2 29 0 46 112.39
Ortiz Braves 145.1 3.16 12 6 0 0 108 110.61
Pavano Marlins 151.1 3.22 12 4 0 1 94 102.78
Smoltz Braves 56 2.09 0 0 27 0 60 102.61
Johnson D'Backs 164.1 2.96 11 9 0 2 184 102.5
Mesa Pirates 47.1 2.29 2 1 30 0 28 101.5

Closers to win both Cy Youngs ?

(notes: I awarded the 12 points as division winners to members of the Yankees, Twins, As, Braves, Cardinals and Dodgers - as they are the current division leaders.
Stats were taken before Saturdays games from dougstats.com.)

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https://www.battersbox.ca/article.php?story=20040808092550999

Player	Team	IP	ERA	W	L	SV	SHO	K	CY score
Rivera	Yankees	58	1.55	3	1	38	0	46	149.06
Mulder	As	162	3.5	15	3	0	1	110	133.17
Nathan	Twins	49.2	0.91	1	0	31	0	57	122.58
Cordero	Rangers	46.1	1.95	2	0	33	0	51	114.36
Schilling	Red Sox	154.2	3.39	13	5	0	0	137	107.08
Santana	Twins	152.2	3.31	10	6	0	1	173	103.97
Vazquez	Yankees	148.2	4.07	13	6	0	0	114	102.83
Rogers	Rangers	142.2	4.3	13	4	0	1	81	88.75
Martinez	Red Sox	143.2	4.09	11	4	0	0	143	84.47
Brown	Yankees	95	3.6	9	1	0	0	60	83.78