As usual, here's my monthly report card for July. It wasn't a good month, but it could have been worse: only one star player went on the disabled list. And nobody got arrested or anything like that.
Hitters
The Jays' offense in July can best be described as anemic. The club was second-last in the league in runs scored with 103, and last in the league in home runs with 19. The club batting average, .265, was a slightly more respectable ninth, which leads me to suspect that many of the big guns are still at less than 100% effectiveness.
If you're looking for good news: the Jays were in the middle of the pack in strikeouts. I guess that's not a lot of good news, is it?
Stats listed are BA/OBP/SLG.
Dave Berg
.296 .276 .444
Everybody's back now, so Berg can go back to doing what he was supposed to do. Batted 27 times and drew exactly zero walks, and wound up with an on-base percentage lower than his batting average. An impressive, if horrible, accomplishment. Summary: as a 25th man, he's valuable; if he's your 7th or 8th man, you're in trouble.
Grade: C+
Kevin Cash
.056 .190 .056
Caught in a vicious cycle: he isn't hitting, so he doesn't play. Because he doesn't play, he doesn't get enough experience in game conditions, so he doesn't hit. And so on, and so on. I get the impression that the Jays are in a holding pattern, waiting for Quiroz to ripen. It's a darned shame – as you know, Cash is a wonderful defensive catcher. But if he can't hit .200, he won't even have Alberto Castillo's career, let alone Mike Matheny's.
Grade: F
Frank Catalanotto
.286 .355 .357
Is apparently suffering from hockey groin. I guess that's better than suffering from tennis elbow. Basically picked up where he left off, except that he's not driving the ball as much; it's hard to generate power when you have an owie in your, erm, intimate regions. Heck, if I had hockey groin, I doubt I'd even crawl out of bed.
As for his future: he has said, loudly and repeatedly, that he likes it here and wants to stay here. There's got to be room somewhere for a guy like that, especially since he bats left.
Grade: B
Howie Clark
.143 .143 .214
Is the 26th man on a 25-man roster. He'll be needed again someday, but for now it's back to upstate New York. It's better than pumping gas for a living. For one thing, you get to travel more.
Grade: Gone
Carlos Delgado
.192 .276 .410
His stats scream that he's pressing at the plate: nearly half his hits were for extra bases, he's stopped walking, and he led the team in strikeouts in July. Your guess is as good as mine as to when he'll snap out of his slump. He hasn't lost his hitting ability.
I suppose there's still a chance that he and the Jays could reach a deal in the offseason before the arbitration deadline, but I guess we have to adjust to the fact that he's going to be gone. If he goes, I hope, for his sake, that he winds up on a team where he doesn't have to be the focus of attention - after nearly a decade of being The Man, he deserves to get a chance to sit quietly in the corner and do his job.
I fail to see what all the fuss was about, Part I: "God Bless America" is not the national anthem of the United States, so who cares whether a player is standing at respectful attention in the dugout or not? Last I heard, we were living in the free world. (By the way, I associate "God Bless America" with the Philadelphia Flyers of the 1970's. I think of Kate Smith, and of Mel Bridgman sucker-punching Borje Salming. I doubt that this is what Bud Selig had in mind.)
I fail to see what all the fuss was about, Part II: The whole point of a no-trade clause is that they can't trade you unless you want to go. Carlos doesn't want to go anywhere, so end of story. To his credit, J.P. has had no problem accepting this.
Grade: C-
Chris Gomez
.319 .351 .361
Had a great month, but... He's not going to hit anywhere near .300, let alone .319, in the long term, and he doesn't have any offensive strengths other than batting average. Eventually, he'll revert to his norm, and the Jays won't have anybody to play short, as Woodward has withered on the vine. I guess they're clearing the decks for Russ Adams or something.
Grade: B+
Eric Hinske
.320 .349 .470
Like many other Jays, he's stopped drawing walks, as he's trying to overcome the team's offensive deficit singlehandedly. He's back to doing everything else at the plate that he normally does. I fear that he'll never hit for a lot of power, but when you can do as many things as he can, that's not a big concern. Just write him in at third and worry about bigger problems.
Grade: B+
Orlando Hudson
.173 .271 .227
Was hot at the plate in June, but cold in July. He scored two (2) runs all month. The good news is that he's drawing walks. The bad news is that he slugged .227, which is a figure many pitchers can reach. Will stay in the lineup forever as long as he keeps playing that wondrous, other-worldly defense at second. By now, it's obvious that he is one of the two greatest defensive second basemen in Blue Jays history, the other being Alomar.
Grade: C (F for offense, A+ for defense)
Reed Johnson
.267 .313 .343
Unfortunately, he appears to be showing us exactly how far hard work, dedication, effort, and knowledge of the game can take you without grade-A talent. Sparky is still a joy to watch, but he's not drawing walks and he's not hitting for power. And the problem here is that better teams have outfielders that do these things. As we all know, life is not fair.
Grade: C-
Frank Menechino
.326 .383 .535
Hit well, but there's no place to play him. I assume he can't handle shortstop on a regular basis, or he'd push everyone else aside; normally, the guys hitting .320 get to stay in the lineup.
Grade: A
Josh Phelps
.318 .388 .818
In a broadcast late in July, one of the analysts (I think it was Candiotti) pointed out that Phelps's batting stance doesn't allow him to effectively cover the outside half of the plate. When you look at him hitting, you can see that this is obviously true - he's opened his stance so that he can turn on inside pitches, and has left himself vulnerable to breaking stuff down and away. I fear that what this means is that, if you're a righthanded pitcher and you throw the ball to certain well-known places, you can easily get Josh out.
On the other hand, if you are a soft-tossing lefthander, Phelps starts hitting like Barry Bonds. Last night, Lou Piniella had to pull John Halama because he didn't want Phelps to hit a third long bomb off him, which seemed exceedingly likely.
I'm not sure what happens next. There's always the possibility that some hitting coach can turn him into a consistent hitter against all types of pitchers, but I don't expect it to happen: while many hitters have growing pains, compare Phelps's career path with that of Alex Rios. But Phelps obviously has some value against lefthanders. Perhaps a platoon role (with Cat?) is in his future.
Grade: B+
Alex Rios
.347 .380 .505
Oh yeah. The one good thing about the Jays' injury parade is that Rios was given a full chance to acclimatize to major league pitching, and to work his way through his initial slump, as there literally was no one else available. Had anyone else been healthy, Rios would have been sent back to AAA. Now, he'll never go back. He's still very much a work in progress - as he isn't hitting home runs or drawing walks yet - but, in July, he led the team in doubles, extra-base hits, stolen bases and batting average. And the elevator is still going up. I compare him to the young Dave Winfield.
Grade: A
Vernon Wells
.241 .302 .448
Sometimes, a player's greatest strength can become his greatest weakness. Wells has never learned plate discipline, as he's never needed to: when he was at his peak, he could hit anything anywhere near the strike zone for distance. Unfortunately, he's lost some of his plate coverage since his injury, and has taken to flailing wildly at balls outside the zone. He'll get it back as he recovers, and after a few dozen trips to the video room and the batting cage; all we have to do is wait. That's the theme for 2004, I guess: we have to wait. By now, we're good at waiting. Like Delgado, nearly half of Vernon's hits were for extra bases.
Grade: C
Chris Woodward
.158 .158 .158
Occupies space at the end of the bench, and plays whenever Chris Gomez needs a rest. Which isn't that often. They've given up on him, obviously; there are teams out there playing shortstops that are worse than Woodward, and he needs to find one of those teams. I suspect that he will get the chance sometime soon.
Grade: F
Gregg Zaun
.264 .376 .417
He's remarkably patient at the plate, and he whacks a lot of doubles, which is why the Jays keep batting him fifth in the order. I mean no disrespect to Zaun and Gomez when I say that if they are among your team's best hitters, your offense is in the toilet. Still playing good defense.
Grade: B+
Pitchers
Who would have thought that the Jays would become a pitching-based team? In July, the Jays' team ERA was 4.21. That's the third-best in the league, and nearly a full run better than that of the New York Yankees (5.12), who spent a billion zillion jillion dollars on pitching. I worry that the Jays are doing it with mirrors, though: the staff struck out only 5.5 batters every nine innings, which was tied for second-worst in the league. At some point, you have to throw the ball by people, or they'll figure out how to hit it.
Stats are IP H BB SO ERA.
Terry Adams
6.2 10 3 7 2.70
He's got good stuff: he struck out over a man an inning in his last days in Toronto. I suspect that he will pitch well in Boston, but I won't miss him.
Grade: C, and goodbye
Miguel Batista
39 39 13 16 3.92
Anybody who seriously suggests that Batista should be traded ought to have his head examined. He's pitching well, and he's signed to a long-term deal at a reasonable salary - what more can you want? K/IP is way down, which worries me; somebody had better ask him whether he's hurt.
Grade: A-
Dave Bush
27 23 6 14 2.00
Let's not get too excited: Bush is at the start of what will be a very long journey. Young pitchers, as they say, always break your heart; Bush will likely take his share of lumps over the rest of this season, and into next season. The other worrying sign is that his K/IP ratio isn't great - one slip, and he'll be into the Brandon Lyon Zone. And he hasn't yet proven that he can handle a starter's workload without arm damage (the only way you can prove that is by Ordeal by Fire: you keep running him out there, and if his arm doesn't fall off, he obviously can handle it). OK, enough pessimism - Bush is poised, mature, throws "quality strikes" (I hate that term), nearly threw a no-hitter, and looks like he belongs.
Grade: A
Vinnie Chulk
14 13 6 12 5.14
Throws hard, and challenges hitters. Sometimes, the hitters win the challenge, but that's the way baseball works. I don't think he's a top-drawer relief pitcher, and I fear that he could be due for a royal stomping sometime soon, but he's already seen off one relief pitcher, and is clearly ahead of the other two expensive guys J.P. brought in. That's way more than anyone ever expected of him before this year.
Grade: C+
Sean Douglass
5 5 4 8 7.20
Pitched better in his one start than the numbers indicate: the home plate umpire was squeezing his strike zone, thus forcing him to throw the ball down the middle. Perhaps managers should be paying attention to umpires' tendencies when sending a kid out to battle for the first time. Do umpires tend to give veteran players the benefit of the doubt over rookies? Do they do this to keep the rookies in line? It's a tough world out there.
Grade: Incomplete
Bob File
7.2 13 3 3 7.04
Got beaten up one too many times, and wound up back in Syracuse. There's nothing in any of his numbers to suggest that he'll ever be especially effective.
Grade: F
Jason Frasor
12.0 11 5 8 3.00
Becoming human - i.e., merely good, as opposed to otherworldly. Still, he converted all his save opportunities. The Frasor-for-Werth trade is looking like one of those rare trades that benefit both teams.
Grade: A
Kevin Frederick
2 1 0 1 0.00
So far, so good: two innings, no runs. Let's check back on him in a month.
Grade: Incomplete
Roy Halladay
17 24 5 10 5.82
As I understand it, his arm is merely fatigued; he's not suffering from any major injury. That seems to be the theme for the Jays this year: they've worked, suffered, and strained until they've broken. Sigh.
I think they got him out of there just in time - on one TV broadcast, they showed footage of Halladay in 2004 versus Halladay in 2003, and you could plainly see that Doc's arm angle was lower this year, as he was trying to compensate for his shoulder problem. Had he kept that up, he would likely have damaged something. If Halladay were to suffer a career-ending injury at this point in his career (and contract), I fear that the Blue Jays would be dealt a blow from which they would find it difficult to recover, given their precarious financial situation. The Yankees can afford to toss $40 million away; the Jays can't.
Grade: C-, with a medical excuse
Pat Hentgen
4.2 8 4 1 15.43
Now that I think about it, I realize that Hentgen's career ended in about the best way possible, as he suddenly went from very effective (2003) to totally ineffective (2004). Most players decline gradually, often struggling through injuries, and spend the twilight years of their career being released by one team after another, desperately clinging to the illusion that they can still play in the majors; look at Rickey Henderson, for example. Some believe, even years after the end, that if they just get their act together a little bit, they can come back; Jim Palmer tried it in his mid-forties. Pat has been spared all of that.
Since it was obvious, both to Hentgen and to everyone else, that he didn't have it any more, he will be able to continue on with his life without any regrets. He left it all on the field, he was able to end his career on his own terms, and he retired, as a Blue Jay, to a standing ovation from his teammates. Congratulations, and good luck. (By the way, a note to the Kansas City player who mocked Hentgen for having class-AA stuff at best: dude, your team is playing .350 ball.)
Before I forget: who would have thought that Hentgen, Olerud and McGriff would see their careers end in the very same month? I don't know about you, but I feel a lot older now than I did a few weeks ago.
Grade: Thanks
Kerry Ligtenberg
9.2 14 6 8 8.38
He pitched well in a couple of outings, but has often looked totally helpless out there. I suspect that he needs a change of scenery. Many citizens of the Greater Toronto Area would be pleased to see him shipped out of town, preferably locked in a car trunk with a contingent of angry ferrets.
Grade: F
Ted Lilly
30.1 22 13 23 3.56
An extremely competent left-handed starting pitcher without enough service time to command an expensive contract. An extremely valuable property at this point. While J.P. has been blasted (unfairly) from here to Smiths Falls for his bullpen signings and everything else, he deserves credit for upgrading the starting rotation relatively cheaply.
Grade: A
Mike Nakamura
1 2 0 1 18.00
Same as he ever was: 90% of his pitches are great, 10% are batting-practice pitches. That's not a good enough ratio. It's called Jim Acker Disease, and it's inevitably fatal.
Grade: F
Justin Speier
12.1 11 7 7 4.38
Seven walks in 12.1 innings suggest somebody who hasn't quite gotten everything together yet. You know that, if you get rid of him, he'll go on and pitch well for somebody else, and one of the Toronto baseball writers will interview him for a "Gee, it feels great to be out of Toronto and playing for a REAL baseball team" article. Sigh. As somebody once put it, some days it's not worth chewing through the leather straps.
Grade: C-
Josh Towers
27.2 25 2 13 2.60
Can he keep this up? In July, Towers walked only two batters, which isn't unusual for him. But what is unusual is that he surrendered no home runs, despite only striking out 13 batters in 27 2/3 innings. To be successful in the major leagues with that K/IP total, you have to throw every pitch exactly where you want it to go; Towers did this in July, but how long can he keep it up? Still, I'm impressed that he managed to do it for an entire month. That's quite an achievement for somebody who was outrighted off the 40-man roster at one point this season.
Grade: A
Overall
Over the next few weeks, we will find out exactly what the Jays have to work with for 2005. Are the hitters in a slump, or are they genuinely not good enough? Can the pitchers keep this up? Can the team collectively rebuild its confidence, or do some players need a change of scenery just because this Season Of Woe has been too much for them? The Jays will be playing the Yankees over and over again in the last part of the season, which should give us an idea of how things really are.
By the way, I predict that the Jays will finish third. They are clearly better than Tampa Bay and Baltimore, even when so many things have gone wrong.
https://www.battersbox.ca/article.php?story=20040731083710999