I'm trying a new kind of trade analysis out today. Yesterday, the White Sox sent Miguel Olivo, Jeremy Reed and Mike Morse to the Mariners for Freddy Garcia and Ben Davis, plus an undisclosed amount of cash.
What I decided to do, is to look at how the various players' PECOTA projections compare, for the length of time that they are contractually bound to their new teams. The hidden assumption here is that once a player is a free agent, they will effectively be of zero current value because their future value will be determined by the market. There is a small amount of resdual value to be gained by having sole access to bargaining right vis-a-vis the player while he is under contract; but agents are increasingly wise to the game and tend not to sign many below-market deals before a player hits the open market.
Freddy Garcia will be a free agent at the end of the season. So the White Sox get 55% of Garcia's season. Ben Davis will be a free agent (I believe) at the end of the 2005 season. So the White Sox get 55% of Davis's season and his 2005 season.
Miguel Olivo will be a free agent after the 2008 season. So the Mariners get 55% of Olivo's 2004, plus his 2005-2008 seasons. Jeremy Reed is not currently in the major leagues; presumably the Mariners will wait until Reed has no chance of being a "super-two" to call him up, and will get six full seasons of Jeremy Reed, 2005-2010. Plus, if we assume he's a September callup, 15% of Reed's 2004.
Prospectus make only the five-year forecasts available, requiring me to interpolate my own numbers out beyond that mark. Obviously, five-year forecasts are pretty vague; but in my opinion BP do a good job of tempering expectations for distant years where that's appropriate. I am using the Wins Above Replacement forecast, reduicing every player to a single number.
PECOTA forecasts:
Freddy Garcia
2004 2.8 wins * 55% = 1.5 wins
Total 1.5 wins
Ben Davis
2004 0.9 wins * 55% = 0.5 wins
2005 0.7 wins
Total 1.6 wins
Total value to Chicago - 3.1 wins
Chicago will also receive free agent compensation for Garcia if offered arbitration
Miguel Olivo
2004 1.0 wins * 55% = 0.6 wins
2005 0.7 wins
2006 1.0 wins
2007 1.0 wins
2008 0.7 wins
Total 4.0 wins
As we can see, Olivo alone is probably worth Garcia plus Davis. He's a young catcher with a good arm and a power bat, who runs well enough and strikes out little enough to keep his average north of his weight.
Jeremy Reed
2004 1.4 wins * 15% = 0.2 wins
2005 1.6 wins
2006 1.9 wins
2007 2.1 wins
2008 2.1 wins
2009 1.9 wins
2010 1.7 wins
Total 11.5 wins
Total value to Seattle - 15.5 wins plus Michael Morse (no PECOTA card; ranked 29th prospect in ?Southern League by OnDeck; 7th by pure statistical measures in 2004).
That's what we mean when we say it's a steal for the Mariners. Kenny Williams just set a match to $15 million of his bosses' money. All in a day's work for your typical major league GM, but not exactly the kind of thing that would endear you to me if I was writing the cheques.
What do people think of this sort of analysis? Is it helpful? I'd be more than happy to run this for other recent trades if there is any interest in this.
https://www.battersbox.ca/article.php?story=20040628123920999