Advance Scout: Arizona Diamondbacks

Friday, June 11 2004 @ 06:44 AM EDT

Contributed by: robertdudek

In rushed the scout. "I'm sorry I'm late, good sir", he said, "but news of the strangers from the cloudless kingdom was hard to come by". As exhaustion overtook him, he held out the papers at arms length. Sadly for him, just then he collpased in a heap and drew his last breath. I took his notes and saw that they were in disarray.

I sighed and reflected - this is a major editing job. So I set to work as best I could.

On to the advance scout ....

* The Diamondbacks sit 8.5 games behind co-leaders Los Angeles and San Diego in the NL West, 12 games under .500 (24 and 36) with 102 to play. They are a middle-of-the-road 8th in runs scored with 274 in 60 games (4.57 per game), 7th in slugging percentage (.424), but only 14th in on-base percentage (.320). In a park like the BOB, that just won't cut it. At the same time, the pitchers have fallen on hard times. They've allowed 335 runs in 60 games (5.58 per game), the second-most in the National League. The main problem has been walks - 4.27 per game, also second-worst in the league.

* The trade that had everyone excited in Arizona has turned sour. The adage is that the team that gets the best player wins the trade, but this one has proven to be the exception. Lyle Overbay is wowing them in Milwaukee, Craig Counsell and Junior Spivey are at least playing and pitching prospect Jorge De La Rosa is showing a live arm in AAA. Richie Sexson is done for the season and is slated to become a free-agent at the end of it.

You think the Toronto Blue Jays have injury problems? Arizona now has a major-league leading 11 players currently on the DL:

* Richie Sexson is on the 60-day DL and is out for the season after left shoulder surgery;
* Roberto Alomar's quest for 3000 hits has hit another major speed bump: He's played only 13 games this season and is on the 60-day DL with a fractured right hand. He has resumed batting practice and is expected to start a rehab assignment shortly;
* Matt Kata is on the 60-day DL with a dislocated left shoulder;
* Ex-Jay Brandon Lyon is on the 60-day DL after right elbow surgery;
* Ex-quality pitcher Shane Reynolds is on the 60-day DL with an inflamed rotator cuff.

And six more players with less severe injuries ...

* Oscar Villareal after a very good rookie campaign was knocked around early has been out for a month with a right flexor strain;
* Matt Mantei, after getting knocked around and showing diminished velocity, was put on the DL a month ago with right-shoulder tendinitis;
* Veteran pinch-hitter Greg Colbrunn, brought back from Seattle, has been out for over three weeks with right wrist tendinitis. Like Alomar, he's been working in the cage and will go down to the minors for rehab;
* Hardthrowing righthanded relief prospect Brian Bruney has missed two weeks with an inflamed right elbow. He was called up after an impressive start to his AAA season (20.1 IP, 11 hits, 10 walks, 20 strikeouts, 2.24 ERA);
* Backup catcher Brent Mayne experienced back spasms serious enough to warrant a trip to the DL. Bob Brenly's description of the injury: "In an attempt to get something out of his suitcase or out of the closet, he had his back lock up on him, it just went into severe spasm, and he really couldn't get out of bed to come to the ballpark for treatment yesterday.";
* Finally, Carlos Baerga will be able to concentrate on his cheerleading duties now that his left calf strain has put him out of action.

* All of these injuries mean that the AAA Tuscon Sidewinders have had many of their key players called up as replacements for the wounded. One exception is the toolsy Luis Terrero, but he's unavailable to the AAA club because he must first complete a three-week anger-management class (yes, you did read that correctly).

A list of farmhands pressed into service:

* Consensus top prospect Scott Hairston got his big league baptism at second base earlier than expected due to Roberto Alomar's injury. Hairston is the 5th member of his family to play big league baseball, joining brother Jerry Junior (of Baltimore), father Jerry Senior (a great bench player in his day), uncle John (briefly with the Cubs in 1969) and grandfather Sam (the first African American to play for the Chicago White Sox). The brothers faced each other for the first time when Arizona visited Camden Yards this week. Hairston #5 has been as hot as a fircracker: In 21 games he's blasted 11 extra-base hits, good for a slugging percentage of .603.
* Third baseman of the future Chad Tracy was called up to take over third base in the present after Shea Hillenbrand was moved to first to cover for Richie Sexson. After a blazing start, Tracy has tailed off to the tune of .233 OBP/.276 SLG in June (29 AB) and .310 OBP/.390 SLG in May (105 AB) after a hot .455 OBP/.581 SLG in April (31 AB)
* Tim Olsen has been recruited as a utility infielder. Olsen didn't hit particularly well in AAA last year (.262 AVG/.323 OBP/.363 SLG). Increasingly, he's been playing the junior partner role in a third-base platoon with Tracy.
* Almost-27-year-old infielder Andy Green has just been called up to fill in for Baerga. Green has some speed, some pop and above-average strikezone judgment, and has had a breakout year so far at AAA. He's hitting .330 AVG/.414 OBP/.577 SLG with Tucson in 215 at-bats. He may do this year what Matt Kata did in 2003. We may be witness to his major league debut in Toronto over the weekend.
* Longtime Kansas City Royals minor league catcher Juan Brito fills in for Mayne as the #2 backstop behind Robby Hammock. Brito appeared in four games with the Royals in 2002 and was hitting .314/.358/.490 for the Sidewinders in 34 games this season.
* 36-year-old Alan Zinter had played over 1400 minor league games and only 39 in the majors (with the Astros) before this season. Zinter is the third catcher, but will see more time as an infield-outfield scrub.
* The D-backs started the season with 3 outfielders, despite injury-prone Danny Bautista being one of them. After Sexson went down the first time, Doug Devore filled his roster spot and has served as the fourth outfielder/pinch-hitter.

* Speaking of Danny Bautista, the veteran right-fielder has played in 59 of the team's 60 games so far this season. His career-high for At-Bats in a season is 328 and he's only 118 shy of that total with over 100 games to go. Bautista is third behind Steve Finley and Luis Gonzalez in runs scored with 35 and two behind club leader Gonzalez in RBI with 34.
* With ageless wonder Steve Finley putting together a carbon-copy of his excellent 2003 campaign, there have been rumours of a pre-deadline trade to a contender. Finley is a 10-year veteran with at least 5 years on his current team, which means he must give his approval before any trade takes place.
* Luis Gonzalez, affectionately known as Gonzo, has earned NL Player of the Week honours with a 15 for 26 week including 6 extra-base hits (5 doubles and a triple). Danny Bautista and Randy Johnson have also won the award this season.

* Remember the grizzled bunch that won the 2001 World Championship? Out of 13 position players on the active roster, only 4 have two or more years of major league service time (Danny Bautista, Steve Finley, Luis Gonzalez and Shea Hillenbrand).

* In my season preview, I wrote that Arizona was knee-deep in righthanded relievers. After ineffectiveness and injury felled both Mantei and Villarreal, only a decent Mike Koplove and a wobbly Jose Valverde remain from the original group. Elmer Dessens has been demoted to the pen, while Brandon Villafuerte and former cup-of-coffee Blue Jay Scott Service have arrived.
* As for the lefthanded relievers, holdover Stephen Randolph has had his troubles with walk-itis (27 walks in 29 innings). Randy Choate is now the LOOGY and has struck out a bunch (25 in 18.2 innings), but has been otherwise unsuccessful (6.75 ERA; 1.93 WHIP).
* Shane Nance started the season on the DL with a sore elbow, returned in early June for 2 appearances and was then demoted to AAA.
* Team saves leader Jose Valverde has inherited the closer role from the injured Matt Mantei. Valverde has allowed an un-closer-like 7 homeruns and 18 walks in 28.2 innings, but has struck out 38.
* The rotation consists of Randy Johnson, Brandon Webb, Casey Fossum, Steve Sparks and Andrew Good - about as varied a collection of 5 starters as you're ever going to see.

* Randy Johnson has been the lone bright spot on a pitching staff performing below expectations. Perfect Game Johnson has averaged 6.8 innings per start (he's not the workhorse he once was), but otherwise he's looked a lot like the old Randy. He's posted a miniscule WHIP of 0.83, struck out 98 batters in 88.1 innings, and limited the opposition to just 30 runs (27 earned; 2.75 ERA).

* Sinker-ball artist Brandon Webb has had a sophomore swoon. His walk rate has jumped to 5.1 per 9 innings from 3.4 per 8 innings in 2003. Manager Brenly surmises that Webb has struggled with his command of both the sinker and breaking ball. Webb has managed to post a 4.18 ERA through it all - not bad in a hitter's park like the BOB.

* Casey Fossum, the main prize acquired from Boston in exchange for Curt Schilling, got his first win of the season in his sixth start. He pitched 6 shutout innings, allowing 5 hits. His mound opponent, Oriole rookie Daniel Cabrera, matched Fossum's goose-eggs with a perfect game through 6, before allowing a walk and a two-run homerun (to Steve Finley) in the 7th. Finley's jack was the first by a D-back in 52 innings.

* Casey Daigle had a hot spring and made the club, but has since shown that he's not ready for prime time. Daigle made 10 starts and pitched 49 innings, which divides out to less than 5 innings a start. He's put up numbers that would make Pat Hentgen run for cover: 27 walks, only 17 strikeouts, 9 homeruns allowed and a 7.16 ERA. Arizona mercifully optioned him to AAA on June 1st. The 23-year-old Daigle had a decent 2003 in AA, but was rocked in his first ever AAA start to the tune of 7 runs in 6.2 innings.

* Andrew Good has pitched ... well out of the pen (23.1 IP, 8 walks, 18 strikeouts, 3.47 ERA); he's set to make his first start of the season on Saturday.

* Could super-prospect Sergio Santos make his major league debut sometime this season? Santos, a shortstop listed at 6'3", was drafted just two years ago out of high school, and has proceeded to tear his way through the minor league chain. The not-quite 21-year-old has hit 10 homeruns in 57 games at double-A El Paso of the Texas League with a .307/.356/.496. The one caveat is strikezone judgment: 15 walks to 56 strikeouts.

* There will soon be a new challenger to the top prospect crown in the desert: First-round pick Stephen Drew. Drew was regarded by most as the top draft-eligible position player in college baseball, but slipped to 15th overall. With Scott Boras representing him, Drew was subject to the same signability concerns that allowed the Angels to get Jered Weaver.

* The BOB no more? It is expected that the name of the ballpark in Phoenix will change next season as a result of the pending merger of Bank One Corp. and J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. I hate all this name changing stuff - if they had called it Colangelo Field in the first place, we wouldn't have this problem.

Probable Batting Orders

vs. LH
4 Hairston
8 Finley
9 Bautista
7 Gonzalez
3 Hillenbrand
2 Hammock or Brito
DH Zinter
5 Olson
6 Cintron

vs. RH
2 Hairston
8 Finley
9 Bautista
7 Gonzalez (or DH)
3 Hillenbrand
5 Tracy
DH Zinter (or 7 Devore)
6 Cintron
2 Hammock or Brito

Devore might sub for one of the outfielders who would in turn DH, Luis Gonzalez being the obvious candidate.

Pitching Probables
Friday: RH Sparks vs. Hentgen
Saturday: RH Good vs. Halladay
Sunday: LH Johnson vs. Lilly

Bullpen Usage
Long: Dessens R, Randolph L
Short: Choate L, Villafuerte R
Setup: Koplove R, Service R
Closer: Valverde R

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