Draft Preview - College Hitters

Monday, May 17 2004 @ 10:43 AM EDT

Contributed by: Pistol

The draft eligible college hitters are generally regarded as a weak class this year. As opposed to the strength of the college pitchers, as few as a handful of hitters will be selected in round 1 on June 7th. However, there are plenty of gems to be found if you’re willing to mine for them.

The stats listed are fairly straight forward, with the exception of aGPA. Thanks to the park factors and strength of schedules listed at Boyd's World adjusted statistics are possible to calculate. While not as thorough as Craig Burley’s adjusted statistics for 2003, aGPA still does a good job adjusting for parks and schedules (at least in my mind).

GPA is a stat created by Aaron Gleeman where GPA = ((OBP*1.8)+SLG)/4.

aGPA is GPA adjusted for parks and schedules. Park factors used for 2002 and 2004 are based on the park factors for 2000-2003. Park factors for 2003 are weighted average park factor for all stadiums a team played in 2003. Strength of schedule as presented in these listings is the average ISR of a team's opponents for each year listed.

Onto the prospects!

Following are a list of the top college hitting prospects, position, college, and batting side. Stats provided are through the games played on May 16th. Years listed are the years each player played in Division I.

1. Stephen Drew, SS, Florida State, Switch - The brother of J.D. Drew, Stephen is considered by most the top college position player in the draft. Spectulation has him going as high as #3 in the draft. However, opinions on Drew are mixed, and like his brother he has had some injuries in college.

Year	ABs	Ave	Obp	Slg	aGPA
2004	157	0.338	0.472	0.669	0.510
2003	263	0.327	0.435	0.582	0.435
2002	204	0.402	0.457	0.750	0.539

2. B.J. Szymanski, OF, Princeton, Switch - Normally when you think of the Ivy League and baseball you're thinking of front office personnel. However, Szymanski is one that has the scouts drooling with size, power and speed.

Year	ABs	Ave	Obp	Slg	aGPA
2004	164	0.378	0.453	0.646	0.394
2003	179	0.330	0.362	0.492	0.304

3. Dustin Pedroia, SS, Arizona St, Right - One of the candidates for College Player of the Year, Pedroia has put up some strong numbers across the board. One thing to be aware of, however, is that playing baseball in the SW US has a Coors-like effect on the stats. For comparison sake, Aaron Hill had an aGPA of 0.422 last season before being taken 13th overall.

Year	ABs	Ave	Obp	Slg	aGPA
2004	197	0.411	0.514	0.655	0.384
2003	297	0.404	0.472	0.579	0.358
2002	236	0.347	0.417	0.432	0.288

4. Danny Putnam, OF, Stanford, Left

Year	ABs	Ave	Obp	Slg	aGPA
2004	201	0.398	0.476	0.677	0.460
2003	230	0.348	0.423	0.630	0.403

5. Jeff Frazier, OF, Rutgers, Right

Year	ABs	Ave	Obp	Slg	aGPA
2004	186	0.376	0.452	0.640	0.409
2003	213	0.315	0.399	0.516	0.330

6. Eddy Martinez-Esteve, OF, Florida State, Right

Year	ABs	Ave	Obp	Slg	aGPA
2004	212	0.377	0.447	0.679	0.498
2003	186	0.371	0.457	0.608	0.456

7. Brad McCann, 3B, Clemson, Right

Year	ABs	Ave	Obp	Slg	aGPA
2004	206	0.388	0.462	0.660	0.526
2003	251	0.347	0.376	0.546	0.394

8. Jon Zeringue, OF, Louisiana State, Right

Year	ABs	Ave	Obp	Slg	aGPA
2004	199	0.422	0.481	0.698	0.436
2003	227	0.339	0.406	0.577	0.386
2002	97	0.247	0.298	0.361	0.260

Last season the Jays were able to find a couple of sleepers late in the draft. In the 18th round Toronto selected Ryan Roberts. Roberts is currently the starting 2B in Charleston and given his production so far he's moving up the Jays prospects rankings. In the 2003 NCAA season Roberts ranked fourth overall in Craig Burley's adjusted OWP.

Similarly, Jayce Tingler put up an OBP in excess of .500 at Missouri in 2003. Selected in the 10th round Tingler is starting in Dunedin this year and has an intriguing 31 BB+HBP against just 10 strikeouts.

So along those lines, here are 25 players that aren't as highly regarded, but have put up some interesting numbers that might be worth taking a flyer on. These players could go from as high as round 2 to as low as round 20 (or who knows, maybe not at all).

Players listed are sorted by 2004 aGPA:


Player	        School	       Pos	Year	ABs	Ave	Obp	Slg	aGPA
Brad Hayes	Arkansas State	3B	2004	135	 0.407 	 0.462 	 0.704 	0.544
Brad Hayes	Arkansas State	3B	2003	209	 0.321 	 0.367 	 0.493 	0.359
Brad Hayes	Arkansas State	3B	2002	197	 0.335 	 0.412 	 0.442 	0.433
								
Brendan Winn	South Carolina	OF	2004	189	 0.349 	 0.444 	 0.720 	0.520
								
Josh Morris	Georgia	        OF/1B	2004	182	 0.341 	 0.450 	 0.692 	0.517
								
Matt Barket	Tulane	        OF  	2004	200	 0.400 	 0.481 	 0.595 	0.515
								
Chip Cannon	The Citadel	1B	2004	185	 0.368 	 0.533 	 0.697 	0.501
Chip Cannon	The Citadel	1B	2003	206	 0.335 	 0.459 	 0.612 	0.400
								
Landon Powell	South Carolina	C	2004	205	 0.356 	 0.433 	 0.654 	0.491
Landon Powell	South Carolina	C	2003	245	 0.339 	 0.436 	 0.555 	0.444
Landon Powell	South Carolina	C	2002	274	 0.292 	 0.350 	 0.485 	0.407
								
Jason Vargas	Long Beach St	1B	2004	161	 0.342 	 0.470 	 0.516 	0.487
								
Wes Swackhamer	Tulane	        OF	2004	185	 0.368 	 0.447 	 0.573 	0.485
Wes Swackhamer	Tulane	        OF	2003	145	 0.297 	 0.401 	 0.566 	0.411
								
Ryan Jones	East Carolina	OF	2004	175	 0.406 	 0.507 	 0.891 	0.483
Ryan Jones	East Carolina	OF	2003	208	 0.264 	 0.336 	 0.370 	0.272
Ryan Jones	East Carolina	OF	2002	196	 0.260 	 0.370 	 0.327 	0.270
								
Matt Anderson	UC Irvine	Inf	2004	188	 0.330 	 0.417 	 0.473 	0.482
Matt Anderson	UC Irvine	Inf	2002	239	 0.381 	 0.444 	 0.494 	0.507
								
Greg Dini	Tulane	        C	2004	188	 0.372 	 0.418 	 0.606 	0.479
Greg Dini	Miami, Florida	C	2002	85	 0.247 	 0.270 	 0.353 	0.247
								
Steve Pearce	South Carolina	Inf	2004	196	 0.337 	 0.424 	 0.622 	0.474
								
Dallas Morris	LA-Lafayette	3B	2004	150	 0.373 	 0.434 	 0.740 	0.472
Dallas Morris	LA-Lafayette	3B	2003	224	 0.299 	 0.350 	 0.406 	0.314
Dallas Morris	LA-Lafayette	3B	2002	87	 0.264 	 0.414 	 0.368 	0.361
								
Mark Jurich	Louisville	OF	2004	216	 0.361 	 0.431 	 0.708 	0.469
Mark Jurich	Louisville	OF	2003	130	 0.285 	 0.351 	 0.531 	0.349
Mark Jurich	Louisville	OF	2002	203	 0.365 	 0.443 	 0.724 	0.480
								
Chris Campos	Oregon State	OF	2004	113	 0.310 	 0.497 	 0.549 	0.467
								
Chris Iannetta	North Carolina	C/1B	2004	189	 0.344 	 0.453 	 0.587 	0.466
Chris Iannetta	North Carolina	C/1B	2003	232	 0.319 	 0.407 	 0.496 	0.404
Chris Iannetta	North Carolina	C/1B	2002	165	 0.333 	 0.431 	 0.539 	0.457
								
Ryan Steinbach	IUPU-Fort Wayne	Inf	2004	167	 0.359 	 0.432 	 0.413 	0.463
								
Phillip Hawke	LA-Lafayette	1B	2004	124	 0.339 	 0.485 	 0.613 	0.461
Phillip Hawke	LA-Lafayette	1B	2003	203	 0.305	 0.387 	 0.468 	0.353
Phillip Hawke	LA-Lafayette	1B	2002	114	 0.246 	 0.428 	 0.351 	0.364
								
Barry Gunther	Mississippi	C	2004	142	 0.352 	 0.428 	 0.486 	0.460
								
Dustin Fremion	IUPU-Fort Wayne	OF	2004	146	 0.356 	 0.428 	 0.411 	0.460
								
Mike Ferris	Miami, Ohio	1B	2004	177	 0.379 	 0.528 	 0.831 	0.454
Mike Ferris	Miami, Ohio	1B	2003	175	 0.360 	 0.484 	 0.549 	0.336
Mike Ferris	Kentucky	1B	2002	114	 0.228 	 0.350 	 0.386 	0.297
								
Hunter Pence	Texas-Arlington	OF	2004	165	 0.418 	 0.462 	 0.618 	0.452
Hunter Pence	Texas-Arlington	OF	2003	239	 0.347 	 0.406 	 0.561 	0.379
								
Lou Santangelo	Clemson	        C	2004	203	 0.305 	 0.381 	 0.591 	0.450
Lou Santangelo	Seton Hall	C	2003	160	 0.281 	 0.335 	 0.381 	0.262
Lou Santangelo	Seton Hall	C	2002	131	 0.214 	 0.286 	 0.305 	0.226


Brett Anderson	Co Charleston	OF	2004	166	0.367	0.505	0.705	0.448
Brett Anderson	Co Charleston	OF	2003	189	0.286	0.369	0.407	0.278
Brett Anderson	Co Charleston	OF	2002	177	0.333	0.450	0.548	0.380


Kurt Suzuki	Cal St Full.	C	2004	189	0.439	0.537	0.709	0.445
Kurt Suzuki	Cal St Full.	C	2003	143	0.350	0.441	0.462	0.333

Preliminary Batter's Box Draft Coverage:
* College Pitchers - April 28th
* A review of the 2 Ricciardi Drafts - May 26th
* Mock Draft - June 2nd
* Batter's Box Draft Day Coverage - June 7th

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