2004 Cincinnati Reds Preview

Thursday, March 18 2004 @ 08:09 AM EST

Contributed by: Pepper Moffatt

The year 2003 is one that Reds fans would love to forget. The team was beset with injuries, the starting pitching was horrendous, and the team finished only one game above the last place Milwaukee Brewers. This was followed up by the senseless murder of outfielder Dernell Stenson and the death of former owner Marge Schott.

2003 in a Box - Cincinnati Reds, 69-93, 5th Place NL Central

Team Batting and Pitching Stats

Team Batting			Team Pitching
Category	Amount	NL Rank	Category	Amount	NL Rank
R	694	13	ERA	5.09	15
2B	239	16	W	69	13
3B	21	16	SV	38	10
HR	182	6	CG	4	10
BB	524	11	SHO	5	13
SO	1326	1	IP	1446.3	8
BA	.245	15	H	1578	14
OBP	.318	14	R	886	15
SLG	.395	13	BB	590	14
SB	80	6	HR	209	14
CS	34	10	SO	932	13

Source: Baseball Reference.

Can things improve for the Reds in 2004? It would appear that they have nowhere to go but up. The pitchers couldn't strike anyone out last year, while the batters did nothing but strike out. The Reds batters recorded 394 more strikeouts than their pitchers did. To put this number into perspective, the 1962 Mets only had a strikeout gap of 219, while the 2003 Tigers struck out 335 more times than their pitchers struck out opposing batters. It's not as if the Reds were making up for it in either places. Their batters recorded 66 less walks and 27 less home runs than their pitchers gave up. There are a lot of areas the Reds can improve on, but will they in 2004?

Analysis

We consider all the players currently on the 40 man roster, along with the 18 players who have NRIs from the Reds. For each player, we've included his ZiPS projection if it is available. A big round of applause goes to Dan Szymborski for making these available on Baseball Primer's Transaction Oracle page.

A note about the ZiPS projections: Under any system the playing time predictions tend to be a poor predictor of reality; Reds catchers as a group are not going to total 1500 at bats this season, for instance. Mr. Szymborski also wishes to note that "ZiPS doesn't try to project who will get a job".

For each batter we've calculated his Gleeman Production Average (GPA) as a shorthand way of comparing the offensive production (or expected offensive production) between players. For the 2003 figures we've placed each player at the position where he played the most games, and for the 2004 figures we've placed each player at the position where we expect he'll see the most action at.

Position Players

Catcher - 2003 Stats

2004 Team	First	Last	B/T	Age	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	GPA
CIN	Jason	LaRue	R/R	29	379	.230	.321	.422	.250
KCR	Kelly	Stinnett	R/R	33	179	.229	.294	.352	.220
CIN	Corky	Miller	R/R	27	30	.267	.395	.267	.245
CIN	Dane	Sardinha	R/R	24	2	.000	.000	.000	.000
TOTAL					590	.231	.315	.391	.240

Catcher - 2004 Projections

Uni	First	Last	B/T	Age	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	GPA
57	Javier	Valentin	S/R	28	384	.268	.329	.435	.257
23	Jason	LaRue	R/R	30	375	.237	.317	.413	.246
22	Corky	Miller	R/R	28	357	.246	.319	.417	.248
67	Dane	Sardinha	R/R	25	328	.220	.266	.296	.194
80	Steve	Lomasney	R/R	26	0	.000	.000	.000	.000
78	Miguel	Perez	R/R	21	0	.000	.000	.000	.000

Barring injury, Jason LaRue will be the Reds catcher on opening day. La Rue is not known for his offensive prowess; he's a career .236/.315/.410 hitter in his 5 seasons in the major leagues. La Rue's $2.6 million salary is a lot to pay for a guy who will put up a .230 average with 15 homeruns.

Corky Miller and Javier Valentin are fighting for backup jobs, although Manager Dave Miley hasn't ruled out keeping them both on the 25 man roster. Valentin, who appeared in 49 games for the Devil Rays last season, has been playing some first base during spring training, as the Reds have no obvious backup for Sean Casey. Valentin has never played an inning of first base in a major league regular season game.

Before spring training started it appeared that Miller was a lock to take over for the departed Kelly Stinnett as backup catcher, but Valentin has turned a few heads in camp. Miller was named the International League's top defensive catcher last season, while hitting .249 with 11 homers for Louisville. Valentin is the better hitter, but Miller's defensive reputation and the fact he's spent part of three seasons with the Reds may tilt the scales in his favor. Don't be surprised if both players are shuttled between AAA and the big club this season.

Former 2nd round draft pick Dane Sardinha is a long-shot to make the team. Sardinha has struggled with the bat in his minor league career, hitting only .256 with 3 homeruns in 246 at-bats last season for the AA Chattanooga Lookouts of the Southern League.

Dane Sardinha is not the only Reds catcher who had trouble hitting in the minor leagues last year. Steve Lomasney batted .241 with 10 doubles and no homeruns in 253 at-bats with Baltimore's AAA affiliate Ottawa Lynx. Lomasney will likely return to AAA and split catching duties with Sardinha.

The Reds are hoping that the 21-year old Miguel Perez will be their catcher of the future. The 6'3" Venezuelan split the 2003 season between the Pioneer League's Billings Mustangs and the Low A Midwest League's Dayton Dragons. In 534 career minor-league at-bats Perez has hit .322 with one homerun. If Perez can add power as he fills out, he could become a top catching prospect.

Outlook: The Reds didn't get much offense from their catchers in 2003, and the same should hold true in 2004.

First Base - 2003 Stats

2004 Team	First	Last	B/T	Age	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	GPA
CIN	Sean	Casey	L/R	28	573	.291	.350	.408	.260

First Base - 2004 Projections

Uni	First	Last	B/T	Age	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	GPA
21	Sean	Casey	L/R	29	537	.292	.358	.415	.265

Is Sean Casey really only 29? It seems like he's been around forever. Casey has been unable to match a breakout 1999 season where he hit .332 with 25 homeruns. Sean is well-known for his contact hitting, as he has neither struck out nor walked more than 60 times since 2001. Casey will earn $6.8 million this season and $7.8 million for the 2005 season, after which he will become a free-agent. Since cost-cutting appears to be the name of the game for the Reds, if Casey can have a hot first-half, don't be surprised to see him flipped to a contender at the deadline. If they can get a pitching prospect or two for him, all the better.

Outlook: Don't expect another 1999 from Casey, but he should be able to improve on his lackluster 2003 season.

Second Base - 2003 Stats

2004 Team	First	Last	B/T	Age	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	GPA
CIN	D'Angelo	Jimenez	S/R	25	290	.290	.365	.421	.270
CIN	Juan	Castro	R/R	31	320	.253	.290	.387	.227
TOTAL					610	.271	.326	.403	.247

Second Base - 2004 Projections

Uni	First	Last	B/T	Age	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	GPA
3	D'Angelo	Jimenez	S/R	26	587	.293	.377	.429	.277
4	Ray	Olmedo	S/R	23	433	.259	.318	.321	.223
6	Ryan	Freel	R/R	28	387	.258	.323	.385	.242
64	Jermaine	Clark	L/R	27	377	.223	.320	.329	.226
7	Juan	Castro	R/R	32	279	.244	.290	.373	.224
61	Aaron	Holbert	R/R	31	0	.000	.000	.000	.000

Former Baseball Prospectus favourite D'Angelo Jimenez had a great second-half of the season after being acquired in a July 6th trade for reliever Scott Dunn. He followed that up with a monster season in the Dominican Winter League, where he hit a league-leading .385 with an on-base percentage of .485. Jimenez will likely be the everyday second baseman and lead-off hitter for the Reds. If you're looking for a roto player who will score a lot of runs, D'Angelo is an excellent sleeper pick.

Former Blue Jay Ryan Freel will likely make the team, in large part due to his versatility. Freel played second, third, let, and center last season, while hitting .285 with 4 homeruns in 137 at-bats. Manager Dave Miley feels "pretty comfortable" with Freel at third, and unlike some former Jay/current Red infielders, there are no questions about his work ethic or attitude. Freel is a fun guy to root for, but unless the Reds suffer a number of injuries, he shouldn't collect more than a couple hundred at-bats this season.

Joining Freel in a utility role is the 32 year-old Juan Castro. Castro played all four infield positions last season, while hitting .253 with 9 homeruns in 320 at-bats.

Last season infielder Ranier (Ray) Olmedo hit a disappointing .239/.280/.274 in his rookie year. The "22 year old" Venezuelan played in 18 games at second and 51 games at shortstop, where he committed an eye-popping 14 errors. Only one of Felipe Lopez and Ray Olmedo will likely make the team. Neither of the pair have impressed in camp, so don't be surprised to see GM Dan O'Brien grab another utility player off of waivers if one is needed. Olmedo and Lopez would make an above-average double-play combination for AAA Louisville.

Former Texas Ranger Jermaine Clark is a long-shot to make the team. The 27 year old left-handed hitter will likely start the season in AAA Louisville, but is a better option for a utility role than either Olmedo or Lopez. If GM O'Brien uses Clark in this manner is another issue entirely.

Aaron Holbert has already been assigned to the minor league camp. Holbert's claim to fame was playing in one game for the 1996 St. Louis Cardinals while Ozzie Smith was on the disabled list.

Outlook: ZiPS appears to agree with my hunch that D'Angelo Jimenez will have a break-out season with the Reds. With his ability to get on base, he could score over 120 runs as the lead-off hitter on this team, despite the fact this team does not appear to be an offensive powerhouse. Jimenez at second full-time could be worth 2 to 3 games in the standings over last year's Castro-Jimenez tandem.

Shortstop - 2003 Stats

2004 Team	First	Last	B/T	Age	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	GPA
CIN	Barry	Larkin	R/R	39	241	.282	.345	.382	.251
CIN	Ray	Olmedo	S/R	22	230	.239	.280	.274	.195
CIN	Felipe	Lopez	S/R	23	197	.213	.313	.299	.216
TOTAL					668	.247	.313	.320	.221

Shortstop - 2004 Projections

Uni	First	Last	B/T	Age	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	GPA
2	Felipe	Lopez	S/R	24	450	.260	.343	.411	.257
11	Barry	Larkin	R/R	40	340	.229	.292	.344	.217
69	William	Bergolla	R/R	21	0	.000	.000	.000	.000

How the once mighty have fallen. While Barry Larkin is a future hall-of-famer, his performance is likely to drag the Reds down in 2004. The Reds captain has announced that this will be his final season in the major leagues. Barring injury, expect to see Larkin play at least 120 games at short due to the Reds lack of alternatives.

Former Blue Jay Felipe Lopez was supposed to be the Reds shortstop of the present, but things haven't exactly gone as planned. It would be generous to say 2003 was a rough year for Lopez, as he hit only .218 for the Reds, then he injured his ankle playing for AAA Louisville. Lopez doesn't turn 24 until May 12th, so there's still plenty of time for him to become a quality major leaguer. A career .232 batting average over 656 big league at bats, often erratic and absent-minded defensive play, and a reputation for having a bad attitude makes major league success for Lopez unlikely from this writer�s point of view.

Although he has primarily been a shortstop in the minors, the Reds are hoping William Bergolla is their second baseman of the future. The Venezuelan born Bergolla has been optioned down to AA Chattanooga, where he will likely spend the entire season. He impressed quite a few Reds players during spring-training, including Adam Dunn who said "That kid can play. He is going to be really good, really special." Bergolla only hit 2 homeruns last year in 523 at-bats, which isn't too surprising given that he's listed at 6'0" and 150 lbs. Like many young prospects, time will tell if William can develop some power as he fills out.

Outlook: The Reds got little production from the shortstop position in 2003, and may even get less in 2004. Given his impressive tools, there's always the possibility Felipe Lopez could finally put it all together and put up some monster numbers. If the Reds are going to have any chance of competing for the Wild Card, they'll need this to happen.

Third Base - 2003 Stats

2004 Team	First	Last	B/T	Age	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	GPA
NYY	Aaron	Boone	R/R	30	403	.273	.339	.469	.270
ATL	Russ	Branyan	L/R	27	176	.216	.322	.437	.254
CIN	Brandon	Larson	R/R	27	89	.101	.212	.146	.132
CIN	Tim	Hummel	R/R	24	84	.226	.290	.357	.220
CIN	Jim	Chamblee	R/R	28	2	.000	.000	.000	.000
TOTAL					754	.233	.314	.410	.244

Third Base - 2004 Projections

Uni	First	Last	B/T	Age	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	GPA
60	Tim	Hummel	R/R	25	557	.273	.343	.399	.254
16	Brandon	Larson	R/R	28	393	.270	.333	.468	.267
68	Edwin	Encarnacion	R/R	21	390	.267	.322	.397	.244

John Fay of The Cincinnati Enquirer reports that Brandon Larson will be the starting third baseman this season, and Tim Hummel will be his backup. One of the biggest questions on the minds of Reds fans is "Which Brandon Larson will show up this year?" Will it be the one who has demolished AAA and slugged .549 in 23 games with the Reds in 2002, or will it be the one that hit .107 over 46 games in 2001 and 2003? I think the idea of an AAAA-player is greatly overstated in the mainstream baseball media, but Larson may be one of those guys. If Larson can put up the .270/.333/.468 it is predicting of him, I think Reds fans should be happy.

Backup third sacker Tim Hummel has a grand total of 84 big league at-bats under his belt. Hummel, who was the player to be named later in the deal that sent reliever Scott Sullivan to the White Sox hit a respectable .284 with 15 homeruns in 476 at-bats last season for Chicago's AAA affiliate Charlotte. Hummel can play at second or short in a pinch, making him a valuable bench player for the Reds.

The Reds need to avoid rushing the progress of top prospect Edwin Encarnacion, although there will be great pressure to as the Reds are lacking talent at the left side of the infield. Encarnacion was originally drafted by the Texas Rangers, but was dealt to the Reds along with Ruben Mateo for pitcher Rob Bell. Given that Bell only lasted one and a half seasons with Texas before signing a minor league deal with the Devil Rays, this has to be considered a major steal for the Redlegs. Edwin has impressed many during spring training, and appears on most prospect lists. The Puerto Rico native turned 21 in January, and has hit .283 with 38 homeruns in 1404 minor league at-bats. In order to become a top-prospect, Encarnacion needs to continue to improve his plate discipline. In 2002 he had 40 walks and struck out 108 times in 517 at-bats. In 2003 he was able to improve this to 46 walks and 76 strikeouts in 469 at-bats. If he is able to continue this trend, he should have a cup of coffee with Reds by the time the season is over.

Outlook: Who knows? Brandon Larson is one of the biggest unknown quantities in baseball. I wouldn't be surprised if he hit .320 with power, but I also wouldn't be surprised if he hit .180 and was sent packing. Both Larson and Hummel are placeholders until Encarnacion arrives.

Rightfield - 2003 Stats

2004 Team	First	Last	B/T	Age	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	GPA
ANA	Jose	Guillen	R/R	27	315	.337	.385	.629	.331
CIN	Austin	Kearns	R/R	23	292	.264	.364	.455	.278
PIT	Ruben	Mateo	R/R	25	207	.242	.290	.329	.213
NYM	Eric	Valent	L/L	26	42	.214	.250	.214	.166
TOTAL					856	.283	.348	.477	.276

Rightfield - 2004 Projections

Uni	First	Last	B/T	Age	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	GPA
28	Austin	Kearns	R/R	24	364	.308	.413	.516	.315
25	John	Vander Wal	L/L	38	321	.240	.328	.417	.252
9	Jacob	Cruz	L/L	31	0	.000	.000	.000	.000

If Austin Kearns can stay healthy, he'll be the Reds everyday player in rightfield. That's a rather big if, as Kearns missed a considerable amount of time last season and had shoulder surgery in the off-season. The Reds have been using Kearns as a DH during spring training, but hope he'll be ready to play the field once the regular season starts. If he's healthy all season, Kearns could hit .300 with 30 homeruns, and play rightfield with the range of a centerfielder. If he's not, the Reds will have difficulty matching the performance of last year's Guillen-Kearns-Mateo trio.

Former Montreal Expo John Vander Wal was supposed to be the team's top pinch-hitter, as well as injury insurance at left, right, and 1st base. Unfortunately he injured himself slipping on a patch of ice which lead him to be put on waivers for the purpose of giving him an unconditional release. The Reds will likely sign Vander Wal to a minor league deal, but don't expect to see John wearing a Reds uniform again until after the All-Star break.

With Vander Wal's injury, Jacob Cruz will likely make the team as a backup outfielder. Cruz has played for the Giants, Indians, Rockies, and Tigers but has only collected 455 at-bats in his seven year major league career. Despite being a career .248 hitter he has a major league on-base percentage of .337. Cruz is a decent enough bench player, but if he breaks his 2001 record of 144 at-bats, in means the Reds are in all kinds of trouble.

Outlook: The Reds desperately need Kearns to stay healthy. If Kearns is healthy, he'll collect 500 at-bats in right, with Cruz, Freel, and possibly prospect Stephen Smitherman picking up the rest.

Centerfield - 2003 Stats

2004 Team	First	Last	B/T	Age	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	GPA
CIN	Reggie	Taylor	L/R	26	180	.217	.266	.350	.207
CIN	Ken	Griffey Jr.	L/L	33	166	.247	.370	.566	.308
CIN	Wily Mo	Pena	R/R	21	165	.218	.283	.358	.217
CIN	Ryan	Freel	R/R	27	137	.285	.344	.431	.263
PHI	Mark	Budzinski	L/L	29	7	.000	.000	.000	.000
TOTAL					655	.237	.310	.420	.245

Centerfield - 2004 Projections

Uni	First	Last	B/T	Age	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	GPA
26	Wily Mo	Pena	R/R	22	322	.261	.343	.410	.257
73	McKay	Christensen	L/L	28	322	.258	.317	.373	.236
19	Reggie	Taylor	L/R	27	322	.261	.306	.410	.240
30	Ken	Griffey	L/L	34	236	.258	.352	.504	.284

Like 2001, 2002, and 2003, 2004 will be the year that Ken Griffey Jr. finally gets healthy and puts up the kind of numbers we were used to seeing from him in the mid 1990's. If Griffey, Kearns, and Dunn can all stay healthy, this team can break .500 despite a lackluster pitching staff. If Griffey can show that he's healthy, don't be surprised to see the Reds deal him in order to cut payroll and gain prospects. The Mariners have been mentioned as a possible destination, but there are other teams interested, such as the White Sox.

If Griffey is dealt, Reggie Taylor would likely become the everyday centerfielder. Taylor has not lived up to the potential the Phillies thought he had when he was drafted 14th overall by them in 1995. He's a career .233 hitter with a career .275 on base percentage in the major league, but does have 14 homeruns in 485 big league at-bats. If the Reds are to deal Griffey, they need to find a long-term solution for centerfield, because Reggie Taylor isn't it.

Unfortunately Wily Mo Pena isn't it either, largely due to his lackluster defense. Pena presents a problem for the Reds. He was rushed to the majors after accumulating all of 51 AAA at-bats. He's also out of options, so if the Reds do try to send him to the minors, they risk losing him to a waiver claim, and there's a number of teams that would be willing to take a chance on a 22 year old outfielder that can hit for power. He'll likely end up making the team and rotting on the bench, which is neither good for player nor team. If the Reds can find a team interested in acquiring Pena in a trade, he's gone.

Former Dodger, Met, and White Sock McKay Christensen is in camp, fighting for a bench spot. Christensen is a long-shot to make the team, and will likely spend the bulk of the season at AAA Louisville. McKay would love to improve on his 2003 season, where he hit .238 in 181 at-bats for Scranton of the International League.

Outlook: As with rightfield, the production from centerfield will depend wholly on the health of its starter. The Reds didn't get a great deal of production out of center last season, so a healthy Griffey is worth a few games in the standings. Don't be surprised to see Griffey dealt at the deadline if he can stay off of the DL. If Griffey is traded, look for Kearns to move to center, and rookie Steve Smitherman to be called up and take a full-time role in the outfield.

Leftfield - 2003 Stats

2004 Team	First	Last	B/T	Age	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	GPA
CIN	Adam	Dunn	L/R	23	381	.215	.354	.465	.276
---	Dernell	Stenson	L/L	25	81	.247	.333	.420	.255
CIN	Stephen	Smitherman	R/R	24	44	.159	.213	.273	.164
TOTAL					506	.215	.338	.441	.263

Leftfield - 2004 Projections

Uni	First	Last	B/T	Age	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	GPA
37	Stephen	Smitherman	R/R	25	475	.269	.342	.436	.263
44	Adam	Dunn	L/R	24	473	.245	.408	.484	.305

Leftfield is an unusual position for the Reds, as the incumbent player is younger than the up-in-coming prospect. Like the rest of the Reds outfield, Adam Dunn spent a fair amount of time on the disabled list last year. Dunn had problems with a sprained left-thumb, which may have been at least partly responsible for his disappointing .215 average last year. Adam Dunn was the co-winner of the "Three True Outcomes crown for 2003", as his 74 walks, 27 homers and 42 singles was positively Deeresque. ZiPS predicts a similar Three True Outcomes season for Dunn, as his slugging and on-base percentages will each be over .400 while his batting average is a lowly .245. If Dunn can find a way to stay healthy and cut down on the strikeouts a little, look out!

Steve Smitherman has already come a long way for a guy who was drafted in the 23rd round. Smitherman followed up his impressive 2002 campaign with an equally good 2003 season, batting .310, drawing 54 walks and hitting 19 homeruns in 365 at-bats for AA Chattanooga, which led to his being named Reds Minor League Player of the Year. Smitherman has already been assigned to AAA Louisville. Smitherman is ill-suited for centerfield, but should be able to handle either corner position, which would allow the Reds to play Kearns in center if Griffey is traded.

Outlook: I can only say it so many times: It depends on the health of the outfield starters, and whether or not Griffey is traded. At worst the Reds should be able to match the performance of 2003's left fielders.

Pitchers

Starting Five - 2003 Stats

2004 Team	First	Last	B/T	Age	G	GS	IP	ERA	W	L	SV	BB	BB/9	HR	HR/9	K	K/9	K/BB
CIN	Paul	Wilson	R/R	30	28	28	166.7	4.64	8	10	0	50	2.7	24	1.3	93	5.0	1.9
CIN	Danny	Graves	R/R	29	30	26	169.0	5.33	4	15	2	41	2.2	30	1.6	60	3.2	1.5
CHC	Ryan	Dempster	R/R	26	22	20	115.7	6.54	3	7	0	70	5.4	14	1.1	84	6.5	1.2
CIN	Jimmy	Haynes	R/R	30	18	18	94.3	6.30	2	12	0	57	5.4	14	1.3	49	4.7	0.9
CIN	Aaron	Harang	R/R	25	9	9	46.0	5.28	4	3	0	10	2.0	6	1.2	26	5.1	2.6
TOTAL					107	101	591.7	5.52	21	47	2	228	3.5	88	1.3	312	4.7	1.4

Starting Five - 2004 Projections

Uni	First	Last	B/T	Age	G	GS	IP	ERA	W	L	SV	BB	BB/9	HR	HR/9	K	K/9	K/BB
15	Cory	Lidle	R/R	32	30	30	189	4.48	10	12	0	54	2.6	22	1.0	123	5.9	2.3
40	Paul	Wilson	R/R	31	31	28	172	5.02	7	11	0	56	2.9	26	1.4	110	5.8	2.0
29	Jose	Acevedo	R/R	26	32	23	147	4.65	8	11	0	46	2.8	22	1.3	119	7.3	2.6
36	Brandon	Claussen	R/L	25	17	17	101	4.10	4	5	0	47	4.2	8	0.7	98	8.7	2.1
39	Aaron	Harang	R/R	26	27	27	142	4.12	9	10	0	49	3.1	12	0.8	110	7.0	2.2
TOTAL					137	125	751	4.52	38	49	0	252	3.0	90	1.1	560	6.7	2.2

The first two spots in the rotation are settled, while a number of players are battling it out for the final three spots. One fact sums up the lack of talent in the Reds rotation: Cory Lidle is the ace of the staff. Lidle signed with the Reds after having a disastrous 2003 season with the Jays that saw him go 12-15 with a 5.75 ERA. ZiPS is far more optimistic about Lidle's chances in 2004 than I am, I'd be shocked if Lidle only gave up 1 homerun per 9 innings while pitching in the Great American Ballpark.

Former 1st overall pick Paul Wilson will enter the 2004 season as the second starter. Wilson has a career record of 28-47 and has been consistently mediocre since 2001, putting up an ERA+ of 92 in each of his last three seasons. Todd Lorenz of MLB.com stated that "Wilson was the Reds' most consistent starter last season", which is about as flattering as being called the prettiest girl in the leper colony. A record of 7 wins, 11 losses and an ERA of around 5 seems like a reasonable prediction of how Wilson will perform in 2004.

Righthander Jose Acevedo has turned a lot of heads in camp, and should go north with the title of 3rd starter. Acevedo appears to have fully recovered from an ankle injury that ended his 2003 season last August. Blue Jays manager Carlos Tosca was particularly impressed with Acevedo after a recent exhibition game, stating "(He had) real good life on the fastball, pounding the ball in on left-handed hitters (and a) real hard slider on right-handed hitters".

There have been a lot of eyes on Brandon Claussen after being acquired from the Yankees in the deal that sent Aaron Boone to the Yankees. Claussen appears to be fully recovered from the arm problems that caused the Reds to shut him down just a few games after being acquired from the Pinstripers. Hall of Fame writer Hal McCoy of the Dayton Daily News has noted that Clasusen has a terrific work ethic, so I've got a good feeling about him. The Reds are hoping Claussen will become the ace they've been looking for. They'll need that to happen if they're going to contend at any point this decade.

Possible fifth starter Aaron Harang was acquired by the Reds along with pitchers Joe Valentine and Jeff Bruksch in the deal that made Jose Guillen an Oakland Athletic. The Reds aren't expecting the former Texas Rangers draft pick to become a superstar, but if he can eat innings while providing the Reds with an ERA under 5, he'll be an asset to the franchise.

Even after a season that saw him go 2 and 12 with an ERA over six, Jimmy Haynes was seen as a lock for the number 3 slot in the rotation. The Reds are hoping that Haynes can recapture his 2002 form, as he pitched nearly 200 innings that season while keeping his ERA just a shade above four. Haynes was marred by back injuries last season, and they've made the 31 year old hurler undergo core strengthening exercises in order to alleviate the problem. I wouldn't be surprised to see the Reds remain cautious with Haynes by having him start the season in long relief, then enter the rotation when one of the other five starters falters or gets injured.

Lefty Jesus Sanchez wasn't on many people's radars a couple of months ago, but now it appears that he has a shot at winning a spot on the team as either a starter or as a long reliever. Manager Dave Miley has stated that Sanches is in the running for the fourth or fifth spot in the rotation. Barring injury, however, I see him as being no better than number 7 on the depth chart.

Outlook: The 2004 starting five is somewhere between mediocre and terrible, but they're an upgrade on the 2003 squad that went 21-47 with a collective ERA of 5.52. I think ZiPS is being optimistic when it states that they'll improve by a full run in 2004, but if Miley gives inexperienced pitchers such as Acevedo, Claussen, and Harang a full-season worth of starts, I think Reds fans will be pleasantly surprised with their performance.

Bullpen - 2003 Stats

2004 Team	First	Last	B/T	Age	G	GS	IP	ERA	W	L	SV	BB	BB/9	HR	HR/9	K	K/9	K/BB
BOS	Scott	Williamson	R/R	27	42	0	42.3	3.19	5	3	21	25	5.3	6	1.3	53	11.3	2.1
NYY	Felix	Heredia	L/L	28	57	0	72.0	3.00	5	2	1	28	3.5	9	1.1	41	5.1	1.5
CIN	Chris	Reitsma	R/R	25	57	3	84.0	4.29	9	5	12	19	2.0	14	1.5	53	5.7	2.8
KCR	Scott	Sullivan	R/R	32	50	0	49.7	3.62	6	0	0	26	4.7	4	0.7	43	7.8	1.7
CHC	Ken	Mercker	R/R	35	49	0	38.3	2.35	0	2	0	25	5.9	5	1.2	41	9.6	1.6
CIN	John	Riedling	R/R	27	55	8	101.0	4.90	2	3	1	47	4.2	7	0.6	65	5.8	1.4
CIN	Brian	Reith	R/R	25	42	1	61.3	4.11	2	3	1	36	5.3	8	1.2	39	5.7	1.1
CIN	John	Bale	L/L	29	10	9	46.3	4.47	1	2	0	12	2.3	7	1.4	37	7.2	3.1
CHC	Jimmy	Anderson	L/L	27	8	7	38.7	8.84	1	5	0	14	3.3	8	1.9	13	3.0	0.9
CIN	Todd	Van Poppel	R/R	31	9	4	35.7	4.54	2	1	0	6	1.5	7	1.8	25	6.3	4.2
NYY	Gabe	White	L/L	31	34	0	34.3	3.93	3	0	0	6	1.6	5	1.3	23	6.0	3.8
CIN	Seth	Etherton	R/R	26	7	7	30.0	6.90	2	4	0	15	4.5	4	1.2	17	5.1	1.1
CIN	Dan	Serafini	L/L	29	10	4	30.0	5.40	1	3	0	14	4.2	5	1.5	13	3.9	0.9
CIN	Jeff	Austin	R/R	26	7	7	28.3	8.58	2	3	0	21	6.7	9	2.9	22	7.0	1.0
CIN	Scott	Randall	R/R	27	15	2	27.7	6.51	2	5	0	11	3.6	1	0.3	25	8.1	2.3
CIN	Jose	Acevedo	R/R	25	5	4	27.0	2.67	2	0	0	6	2.0	3	1.0	23	7.7	3.8
CIN	Josh	Hall	R/R	22	6	5	24.7	6.57	0	2	0	15	5.5	4	1.5	18	6.6	1.2
CIN	Ryan	Wagner	R/R	20	17	0	21.7	1.66	2	0	0	12	5.0	2	0.8	25	10.4	2.1
CIN	Phil	Norton	R/L	27	17	0	14.7	2.45	0	0	0	6	3.7	0	0.0	7	4.3	1.2
CIN	Juan	Cerros	R/R	26	11	0	13.0	4.85	0	0	0	5	3.5	1	0.7	9	6.2	1.8
SDP	Joey	Hamilton	R/R	32	3	0	10.7	12.66	0	0	0	5	4.2	3	2.5	7	5.9	1.4
CIN	Josias	Manzanillo	R/R	35	9	0	10.7	12.66	0	2	0	4	3.4	7	5.9	12	10.1	3.0
CIN	Matt	Belisle	R/R	23	6	0	8.7	5.19	1	1	0	2	2.1	1	1.0	6	6.2	3.0
CIN	Joe	Valentine	R/R	23	2	0	2.0	18.00	0	0	0	1	4.5	1	4.5	1	4.5	1.0
CIN	Mark	Watson	L/L	29	2	0	2.0	4.50	0	0	0	1	4.5	0	0.0	2	9.0	2.0
TOTAL					530	61	854.8	4.79	48	46	36	362	3.8	121	1.3	620	6.5	1.7

Bullpen - 2004 Projections

Uni	First	Last	B/T	Age	G	GS	IP	ERA	W	L	SV	BB	BB/9	HR	HR/9	K	K/9	K/BB
43	Jimmy	Haynes	R/R	31	29	28	161	5.09	8	14	0	73	4.1	18	1.0	102	5.7	1.4
32	Danny	Graves	R/R	30	46	16	134	5.04	5	9	0	33	2.2	19	1.3	58	3.9	1.8
41	Chris	Reitsma	R/R	26	40	19	139	4.53	8	10	0	36	2.3	17	1.1	86	5.6	2.4
46	John	Riedling	R/R	28	47	5	80	4.28	2	3	0	37	4.2	4	0.5	55	6.2	1.5
38	Ryan	Wagner	R/R	21	26	0	30	3.60	2	2	0	15	4.5	2	0.6	36	10.8	2.4
33	Mike	Matthews	L/L	30	61	4	68	4.50	3	5	0	31	4.1	6	0.8	53	7.0	1.7
79	Jesus	Sanchez	L/L	29	0	0	0	0.00	0	0	0	0	0.0	0	0.0	0	0.0	0.0
45	Todd	Van Poppel	R/R	32	46	6	93	4.74	4	4	0	30	2.9	13	1.3	77	7.5	2.6
TOTAL					295	78	705	4.71	32	47	0	255	3.3	79	1.0	467	6.0	1.8

Trying to project saves is a fool's errand, so ZiPS has decided to avoid the matter entirely.

After an unsuccessful move to the rotation, Danny Graves will be back in the bullpen in 2004. Graves feels far more comfortable as a reliever and is quite happy to have been taken out of the rotation. To put his awful 2003 in perspective, consider this: Last season he only struck out 60 batters in 169 innings, while in 2002 he was able to strike out 58 in just 99. I'd ignore the ZiPS projection on Graves, there's no way that he will make 16 starts this season, and his ERA should be well below five. If you're a roto player looking for saves, Graves will likely start the season as the closer, but there's no guarantee he'll finish the season in that role.

A contender for the role of closer is former starter Chris Reitsma. Like many Reds pitchers, Reitsma had trouble keeping the ball in the park, allowing 14 homers in 84 innings. If he can cut down on his homers allowed while maintaining his high strikeout-to-walk ratio, he'll rack up a large number of saves and holds. He's a good late-round sleeper pick in roto leagues, because if Graves struggles, he'll become the closer and accumulate the saves that goes along with the position.

The righthanded John Riedling will be back in the bullpen, and should make a number of appearances in the seventh and eighth innings. The Reds have high hope for Riedling, who pitched well in the second half after returning from the disabled list. Rielding's ERA as a starter last year was 4.90, while his ERA as a reliever was 3.58, so don't expect Rielding to be making any starts for the Redlegs this season.

Despite the facts that he won't turn 22 until July 15th and that he's only pitched 9 innings in his minor league career, there is a lot of talk that 2003 1st round draft pick Ryan Wagner will make the team out of spring training. Wagner has already pitched in 17 games for the big club, sporting a 1.66 ERA over 21 innings. Drafting a reliever with your first pick, having him pitch with the big club in the same season he was drafted, and giving him a total of 9 career minor-league innings defies all common sense, but it appears that the Reds have a good one in Wagner.

It's possible that Mike Matthews will be the only lefty in the pen

11 comments

https://www.battersbox.ca/article.php?story=20040318080943999