2004 Arizona Diamondbacks Preview

Sunday, February 29 2004 @ 12:30 PM EST

Warning: Contained herein is very likely more information about the Diamondbacks than you'd ever want to know. In other words (as Sting once sang): "Too much information running through my brain; too much information driving me insane". Enter at your own risk.

Daedalus fashioned wings of feathers and wax for his son, Icarus, and himself. He cautioned Icarus to fly neither too high, nor too low, for the sun would melt the wax or the waves drench the feathers. Icarus ignored his father's warnings and thrilled with the power of flight, flew too close to the sun and perished.

And so it was with the Arizona Diamondbacks. Born in recent times and endowed with a certain brashness, they sought immediate gratification where others had suffered hardship and piously waited for better times. The traditional mode of operation of an expansion franchise is to suffer and build through the farm system. Model citizens Kansas City and Toronto showed the proper way to build a franchise from the ground up, establishing decade-long runs of competitiveness. The Diamondbacks were going to have none of that.

Arizona is in the middle of a morality play, in which the exuberant and impatient youth indulges in merry-making with little thought of the future, only to later pay for his sins with years in oblivion. Icarus must have felt an intoxication beyond description when approaching the sun; similarly, the Diamondbacks fulfilled all their hopes in only their 4th year of play. But now the time had come to pay the price (so sayeth the chorus). Arizona is entering Year 7; here is how other expansion clubs have done in their early years:

          * Houston's best season in years 7 to 12 was prorated to a 162-game schedule

It's easy to see why the Royals are considered the blueprint for franchise building. They recording eight .500+ seasons in their first 12, including a league championship. The Blue Jays and Mets, after many years of squalor, built successful teams in their second six-year tenures. The Marlins have been extremely lucky, posting only two .500+ seasons and winning the World Series each time. The Angels and Rockies, after promising starts, stagnated. The Padres, Mariners and Senators/Rangers achieved the least.

The Diamondbacks and the Rockies, because of their high revenue-generating ballparks, had an opportunity to build competitive ballclubs from the start. The Rockies failed and, entering Year 12, are poised to fall to the bottom of their division. Most of their expensive purchases have let them down and they've been among the poorest developers of talent over the last decade in baseball. The Snakes rolled a seven: They endup up choosing the right 30-something veterans and parlayed that to almost instant success.

2003 in Review

The curtain fell on the first act of the morality play in April 2003 when Randy Johnson went on the DL, presaging a long and difficult year for the twin pillars of the Diamondbacks pitching staff. Almost as quickly, the second act was ushered in with the arrival of the unheralded Brandon Webb. A parade of rookies filled in for injured players or pushed out fading veterans. Considering the excellent hitting conditions in the BOB, the pitching held up extremely well, thanks in large part to Webb and a deep bullpen. The problem was the offence, featuring three leading culprits who have since been dispatched. Let's call it addition by subtraction, but before we look ahead, lets put the 2003 Arizona offence under the microscope.

The offence may look average at first blush, but after adjusting for park Arizona drops to 14th out of 16 NL teams. In any case, they lost about 100 runs as compared to 2002. Here's a breakdown by batting order position and fielding position. Bear in mind that these numbers are not park-adjusted.

          * GPA is the Gleeman Production Average - (1.8*OBP+SLG)/4 - a very good estimate of overall offensive production

Despite batting Tony Womack leadoff for much of the first half of the season, the D-backs got near average production (non park-adjusted) from that spot. Take a gander at the NL OBP for the leadoff position: Is there any doubt that baseball men are still in the thrall of the speed goof leadoff man? Here's a look at who led off for Arizona and what they did while they did it:

I'm not sure if all of Womack's leadoff games were with Arizona, but I don't think the Rockies batted him leadoff much. The other leadoff men did well, bringing the overall team performance up to league average. Steve Finley is slated to earn leadoff duties in 2004. Right field was another problem, as Danny Bautista endured another injury-plagued season. David Dellucci and Quinton McCracken put up terrible numbers, before mid-season acquisition Raul Mondesi hit up a storm in the final month and a half.

Lyle Overbay put up a solid .362 OBP, but slugged only .400. Overbay came into the season reputed to be a line drive hitter with good plate discipline. But his numbers were posted in favourable hitting environments at an advanced age for AA and AAA. After Overbay's demotion, Shea Hillenbrand shifted over from third. In between, the Snakes deployed a superannuated Mark Grace. The D-backs have landed a real first baseman for 2004, which leaves right field, catcher and serious lack of outfield depth as the major onstacles to a productive offence heading into spring.

2003-04 Off-Season

Arizona was involved in two major trades and one relatively minor one since losing out in the wildcard race. They sent Quinton McCracken to Seattle for pinch-hitting specialist Greg Colbrunn, who joins Carlos Baerga as the one-two punch off the bench. The other two trades you may be somewhat familiar with. The net result is that Arizona swapped Curt Schilling for Richie Sexson, and sent Chris Capuano, Chad Moeller, Junior Spivey and Craig Counsell on their way, taking back Casey Fossum, Brandon Lyon and Shane Nance. Arizona probably lost more talent than they gained, but Sexson improves their offence and they still have tons of pitching depth. Fossum has a greater chance of success than Capuano, and Counsell wasn't going to provide anything that Kata can't do. I'm less sanguine about Junior Spivey's departure: He had a down year but is still on the good side of 30 and plays better defence than Alomar at this point. Robbie was brought in for a million bucks and I think his performance won't quite justify that. Nevertheless, they aren't risking much and it means Kata can fill a role (utility) he's suited for.

Moeller's departure is potentially damaging, since it leaves Arizona dependent on the inexperienced Robby Hammock, with scrapheap veteran Brent Mayne (ick) backing him up. It looks as though Hammock will not be 100% for opening day, due to recent surgery on his left knee {knee surgery + catching? Not a good mix). That means retread Bobby Estallela has a shot at making the team when it heads ... uh east, I think. I'd love to see "old-man" Craig Ansman get a shot based on his superb performance in AA last year.

The Players Section ...

A rip-off of Jonny German's HTML stylin' featuring the garish colours of the Diamondbacks.    Notes: Age listed is as of July 1st, 2004; batting and pitching splits are for the last three seasons (2001-2003) with At Bats in parentheses, and include only major league data

The Starting Lineup

The ageless wonder you never hear about. Looking at Finley's last seven years, I'm hard pressed to find evidence of offensive decline. I would swap him with Alomar in the order, since, at this point, Finley has more power. His defensive skills, however, have deteriorated to the point where he's a sub-par defensive centrefielder. Unfortunately there isn't anyone in the organsiation that can take over and push Finley to rightfield, apart from Luis Terrero (and we don't want to see his bat in the lineup).

His abrupt decline took most of us by surprise. Only four men have played more major league games at 2nd base than Alomar has, and he needs 30 more to claim #3 on the list (Collins, Morgan, Whitaker, Fox, Alomar). Examing the details of his decline, one comes to the conclusion that Alomar's skills have deteriorated across the board:

Durable, patient and possessing a classic lefthanded swing, Luis has posted OBPs right around .400 since coming to Arizona 5 years ago. A very good hitter who has aged exceptionally well.

The decision to provide Luis Gonzalez with a weighty contract extention (about $10 million per year, 2004-06, with a team option for 2007) was an ominous sign for a franchise dangerously close to financial ruin. His age and performance can't justify the contract extention, but of course, there were extenuating circumstances. Gonzalez is the most popular player on the team and a leading citizen in the community. Alas, such noble sentimentality won't aid the D-backs in trimming their payroll over the coming years./p>

#4

Richie Sexson

Age: 29.5

First Base

Bats RIGHT

v R .353/.535 (1412)

v L .394/.525 (362)

By far the most important D-Backs acquision since getting Curt Schilling from the Phillies. Richie has always been able to generate power with his long, fluid righthanded swing. His progress as a hitter has come down to the impressive development of one skill in particular since his first few years in the majors:

Sexson's increased walk rate is all the more impressive when you consider his height (6'8").

I labelled Cintron a slap hitter in my 2003 preview at Baseball Primer and his .489 SLG including 13 homeruns in 2003 screams fluke. For this year, number 5 in the order seems about right given the lack of depth in the Snakes' lineup. Cintron plays a competent shortstop and runs well. His strength is putting the ball in play - I think with the right coaching and work-ethic he'll develop into a .300 hitter who could post a .350 OBP out of the leadoff spot. That would make him a switch-hitting version of Shannon Stewart, at least offensively.

Similar to Matt Williams without the glove and less power. His walk rate is creeping up (.020 to .031 to .036) and his power is good for a third baseman. Incremental improvements are to be expected, but it's highly probable that this is essentially as good as it gets for Hillenbrand. He doesn't have the bat for first base, which means he needs to keep working on his defence at third to keep a regular job.

Injuries, injuries and more injuries. Last year's catalogue: bruised knee in spring training, strained right hip flexor in April, and a sprained left hamstring after running out a groundball in June. That last one forced Bautista to miss almost six weeks. His career high in games ABs is 351. Danny's about done, which begs the question: Who will be the next Diamondbacks regular rightfielder? Julio Ramirez?

As mentioned earlier, he won't start the season at full strength. Tabbed as the number one catcher, but also expected to play the outfield on occasion a la Eli Marrero. He does a bit of everything, but his power was sub-par in most of his minor league stops. His minor league record shouts journeyman at me.

The Bench

Much like Hammock, Kata came out of nowhere. He showed he could handle second, third and (in a pinch) short at the major league level. Unlike Hammock, Kata isn't being counted on to be a regular. He'll ply his trade at three infield positions, allowing the regulars to rest when necessary. He's shown good speed, decent power and average strikezone judgement in the minors.

Who says you can't dig up an old ballplayer and put a majorleague uniform on him? Baerga was last a regular in 1998 for the Mets, finishing up his third straight awful season. After trials in San Diego and Cleveland in 1999, Carlos began his long exhile - trying his hand with the D-Rays (contract voided), the Mariners (released), Samsung (Korea) and Long Island of the Atlantic League. Syrprisingly, he made the Red Sox in 2002 and put up okay numbers - about what he had done in his last year with the Mets.

2003 was a rebirth. The former all-star became the ultimate bench player: He switch-hit his way to a .343/.396/.464 and was the best cheerleader in the National League. I don't think he'll approach those numbers in 2004, but at the very least he'll keep everyone loose.

Bob Brenly should be happy to see this face, as Colbrunn returns to Arizona after a one-year absence. Seems to have been around for ages and likely has several good years as a pinch-hitter left. Absolutely mashes lefties.

Uh oh. Brent Mayne as a first-string catcher sends shivers up my spine. He doesn't strike out much but has below average power and hasn't hit for average in 3 years. Mayne's main asset these days is his status as a grizzled veteran and a lefthanded-hitting catcher. If Hammock falters, Brenly might find a convenient excuse and give the top job to Mayne.

The Starting Rotation

There's almost no chance of the Randy Johnson of 2001/2002 returning, but 80% of that would go a long way in making Arizona contenders in a division without an overwhelming favourite. Despite suffering from a bum right knee for nearly the entire year, Johnson struck out 25.7% of the batters he faced, while walking only 5%. When batters were able to make contact, they hit him harder than they had in his two previous years, causing his ERA to balloon.

If Johnson's knee and arm are okay, I think he'll strike out about 30% of the batters he faces and post an ERA in the high twos/low threes. I doubt we'll ever see 250+ IP in a season from him again, but the Big Unit will pitch until he decides he no longer wants to, or until his body completely breaks down.

Unheralded by the experts, Webb came up in May and proceeded to have the best rookie year in the National League. The word is that he's working on a cut-fastball, which would be a great addition to his repertoire featuring the heaviest sinker left standing in the National League. He had the highest groundball to flyball ratio among NL starters at 3.92 in 2003.

There's some question about his age, with ESPN Player Profiles and the 2004 Baseball America Almanac listing 1971, while the 2004 Bill James Handbook and the 2003 Sporting News Register list 1972 as his birth year. I'm going with the former.

The Snakes thought they had bolstered their rotation considerably when they pencilled him in the #3 slot, but Dessens plexiglassed to his most disappointing season in the majors. 32-year-old righthanders with below average strikeout rates don't usually age well, and I don't expect significant improvement from Dessens in 2004. His strikeout and homeruns rates were actually better in 2003, though his walk rate suffered a bit. But his ball in play average against zoomed up (to .325 from .265), as did his ERA (to 5.07 from 3.03) - most of that is good luck turning bad.

In his prime he sported one of baseball best K/W ratios among starting pitchers. The Astros' move to Enron corresponded in time to Reynolds losing his best stuff. Injuries have now reduced him to topping out in the mid 80s, but guile has enabled him to survive. Expect more of what we got last year: A back-of-the-rotation guy who should provide about 150-170 innings.

Rail-thin lefty with a great cut-fastball that burrows down and in to righthanded hitters. He relies too much on his cutter, despite possessing a decent fastball. His stamina is his nemesis. For whatever reason, he's been unable to add any bulk to his frame and tends to run out of gas at about 90 pitches. I suspect Brenly will try him in the rotation, but bounce him back to the 'pen occasionally. Doesn't have anything left to prove in the minors.

An old knuckleballer for an old team - that's a good fit. Sparks was used exclusively as a reliever last year, which is at odds with the way most recent kncuckleball pitchers have been deployed. A concern will be Hammock, Mayne and Estallela's abilities to handle the knuckleball.

The Bullpen

Paid like as elite relief pitcher, though he's a notch below that when healthy. He's had injury problems throughout his big league career, but it hasn't stopped him from decreasing his walk rates steadily since his rookie year. He'll be a free agent after 2004, unless he's willing to take a substantial pay cut. Could be traded to a contender if D-backs fall out of the race by July.

Some observers feel his unorthodox delivery significantly increases his risk of injury. He pauses his windup after moving the ball behind his head and before his arm comes forward, creating the impression of distinct loading and firing motions. His fastball resides in the 91 to 94 mph range. His best pitch is the splitter. It's not your typical bottom falls out type of splitter - rather, it has a bend in it, seeming to rise before it dips sharply at the finish. He starts it out at the middle of the plate and it finishes just below the strikezone (not in the dirt). He throws it at about 83 mph.

He won't be as effective in 2004 as he was in 54 appearances last year. His strikeout rate will regress towards the rate he posted in AAA (26.8%).

With non-roster invitee Jesse Orosco deciding to retire instead of competing for a job out of the pen, the short (listed at 5'8") relief pitcher has the inside track on the specialist lefty role.

He relies on spotting his fastball, which showed more life in Boston last year than in his time in Toronto. Gopher balls have been a problem; if he can maintain his homerun rate against from 2003, he should be a useful relief pitcher in the Paul Quantrill mould.

Arizona has scouted heavily in Mexico and Villareal is one of their first pitching finds. He came to spring training in 2003 with a ticket for AAA, but was impressive enough to earn a spot on the big club over several veterans. He possesses an assortment of pitches: a sinker thrown at 89 mph, a 4-seamer thrown at 93-94 mph with very good movement, a slider that comes in at 86 mph and a change-up with a nice drop to it, thrown at about 82 mph. He needs a bit of polish on all these pitches to become an all-star caliber hurler.

That repertoire makes some think that Villareal is destined for the starting rotation, and I concur. There's always the concern about racking up innings on a young arm, but he could very well be Arizona's 3rd best starter at the moment. His role coming out of spring will depend on how the other back-end-of-the-rotation candidates fare.

He reached AAA in 1998 and it took him 5 more years to pitch in his first major league game. He beat out veteran Greg Swindell for the lefty spot coming out of spring training in 2003. The Quintessential journeyman pitcher who throws around 90 mph. With a bit of luck, he'll hang around as a LOOGY for years and collect his pension at the end of the day.

If healthy, a lock to make the team. The knucklescraping righthander has had great successful at every professional level he's pitched at. Coming off a lambrum problem, I have my doubts he'll be ready in April.

Cut loose by San Diego, and a longshot to make the club because of all the righthanded relievers coming out of the BOB's woodworks.

A finesse pitcher (good control, not overpowering) who has difficulty keeping the ball in the yard. Good saw a lot of action last year due to a slew of D-Back injuries, and showed very mixed results. Could bounce up and down this year and may eventually have to settle for bullpen filler roles.

Important notice ... I've purposely left out John Patterson. John needs a change of scenary, as he seems to be going backwards in this organisation

Prospects

Luis Terrero - CF - Age: 24.1

Toolsy outfielder who is making slow progress on his strikeout-to-walk ratio. Due to lack of depth, he's got a decent shot at making the team out of spring, especially if Hammock starts the year on the DL. He'll be the first outfielder called up in case of injury, but I can't see him making a positive impact. He can handle centre, but lack of power and walks suggests a fringe major league career.

Chad Tracy - 3B - Age: 24.1

Moved rapidly up the chain out of college, but his power numbers haven't been impressive considering the parks he's played in. Doesn't walk a bunch but is improving in that area. Some say he's a stretch as a third baseman. Like many D-Backs prospects, he doesn't strike out much and, as a result, will hit for a good average. Has a shot of turning into Shea Hillenbrand with a better batting average.

Scott Hairston - 2B - Age: 24.1

The younger brother of Jerry Hairston Jr. and the number one prospect in the organisation accoring to Baseball America. Carries a very potent bat for a middle infielder. There's been talk of shifting him to corner outfield, but I'd like to see how Hairston handles second base in AAA before reducing his value so drastically. His strikeout rate spiked in AA last year, suggesting he isn't close to being ready. Needs a full year at AAA and hopefully a shot at a starting job in 2005.

Sergio Santos - SS - Age: 21.0

A once highly-touted high school shortstop, Santos slid to the late first round but is now one of the top position prospects to emerge from the 2002 draft. He's listed at 6-3 and considered by some to be too big and too clumsy to play short in the majors. Nevertheless, the organisation plans to keep him there for the time being. Santos has very good power and decent batting eye for a shortstop. If Alex Cintron fulfils expectations, Santos' future may lie at the hot corner.

Conor Jackson - OF - Age: 22.1

Some speculated that the Athletics had their eye on Jackson as one of their two first round picks in the 2003 draft. With good reason, since Jackson's combination of power and batting eye (.319/.410/.533 in the Northwest League) is the base upon which great hitters are built. Jackson's debut half-season was impressive and I expect him to move fast. He could get a cup of coffee in September.

Brian Bruney - RHP - Age: 22.4

Fireballer who's worked his way up the chain after being drafted out of high school, Bruney was named the #2 relief pitching prospect in baseball by Baseball America. He's nearly ready for prime-time. If the D-backs find a taker for Mantei before the trade deadline, Bruney might slide into the righthanded setup role, with Valverde becoming the closer.

Mike Gosling - LHP - Age: 23.8

A lefthander that Baseball America considered the best Arizona pitching prosect in recent times. He hasn't put up numbers to justify that, but you never know about southpaws.

Edgar Gonzalez - RHP - Age: 21.3

A forgotten man on prospect lists. The young Mexican has above average stuff and decent command of it. The fastball has lots of movement and comes in at 91-93 mph. He complements that with an 80 mph change-up and a slider thrown at about 86. He hasnt shown a high strikeout rate (only 14.5% strikeout rate above A ball) in the minors, but that could be due more to his youth and inexperience than his stuff. He has decent control and is tough to take out of the yard (a very low 1.3% homerun allowed rate at AA and above). Gonzalez desperately needs a full season of AAA to master his pitches, and that's likely what he'll get because of Arizona's righthanded pitching depth.

Beltran Perez - RHP - Age: 22.7

Righthanded Dominican who's drawn some attention. Perez struggled in Double-A El Paso (not an easy place to pitch).

Outlook for 2004

The pitching will be above average due to depth, although the rotation isn't strong behind the front two. The offence should be better thanks to the presence of Sexson, with rightfield and catcher being the areas of most concern. Unfortunately, there is next to no outfield help on the immediate horizon in the farm. If the D-backs are out of the race, Finley, Dessens and/or Mantei may be moved for hitting prospects.

Over the long haul, the pitching looks good, but Arizona could use a few more potential #1 or #2 starters in the farm system. They'll have to search outside the organisation for hitting talent, as there isn't enough to fill the holes as the remaining wheeze kids take their final bows.

Prediction: 85 wins and 3rd place in the West

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