Fun for a bitterly cold afternoon ...
This simulation reflects free agent signings and trades through Tuesday, January 13th (up to and including Jay Payton to the Padres). In his recent file release, Dan Szymborski created starting lineups and assigned some of the pitching roles for each team, which I have tweaked and updated. As in the first edition, I created manager profiles for all the (NL) teams, including playing time for backups and utility players. The number of simulated seasons was increased to 25 and the "no injuries" setting was used. The following results are based on average (not median) performance.
| NL East | Wins | Runs | RA | Pyth | Range | playoffs |
| Philadelphia | 94 | 791 | 684 | 92 | 99.7 - 87.6 | 78% |
| Atlanta | 84 | 784 | 747 | 85 | 89.2 - 79.1 | 16% |
| Montreal | 82 | 788 | 770 | 83 | 87.5 - 76.5 | 16% |
| Florida | 77 | 640 | 668 | 78 | 83.9 - 70.4 | 8% |
| NY Mets | 76 | 708 | 748 | 77 | 83.6 - 69.1 | 4% |
Notes: (1) Pyth is the pythagorean winning percentage, a predictor of wins and loses based on runs scored and allowed; (2) Range is based on expected wins plus/minus one standard deviation (actual wins will fall within that range two-thirds of the time given a normal distribution)
The Phillies have a 10-game talent lead over the field in the N.L. East. However, the Phillies' manager is Larry Bowa and the Braves counter with Cox/Mazzone, so that advantage will likely shrink when it comes time to play the games for real. There isn't a lot to choose from among the other three clubs: Florida will regress, the Mets are still old, and the Expos won't have the resources to deal with problems that arise during the season. On paper, the Phillies ought to be considered clear, but not prohibitive, favourites to break the incredible run of division titles by the Braves.
| NL Central | Wins | Runs | RA | Pyth | Range | playoffs |
| Saint Louis | 97 | 779 | 647 | 95 | 103.7 - 90.1 | 84% |
| Houston | 90 | 721 | 645 | 89 | 94.9 - 84.3 | 50% |
| Chicago | 86 | 692 | 645 | 86 | 92.7 - 79.0 | 30% |
| Milwaukee | 72 | 684 | 764 | 73 | 77.3 - 66.4 | 4% |
| Cincinnati | 70 | 709 | 797 | 72 | 76.0 - 64.2 | 0% |
| Pittsburgh | 69 | 680 | 786 | 70 | 75.3 - 63.2 | 0% |
The divison is split down the middle into strong and weak teams. The Cardinals were a surprise to me, as I expected them to trail the Astros and Cubs. The Cubs appear to be closing in on Greg Maddux, and may yet land Pudge Rodriguez, which would likely push them past Houston. The manager factor (Baker/Jimy/La Russa) favours Chicago significantly. There should be a tight battle for the Central crown, with the wildcard very likely coming from this division as well.
| NL West | Wins | Runs | RA | Pyth | Range | playoffs |
| Arizona | 87 | 738 | 714 | 83 | 93.0 - 80.3 | 50% |
| Colorado | 81 | 823 | 829 | 80 | 87.4 - 74.4 | 30% |
| San Diego | 80 | 721 | 716 | 81 | 87.8 - 72.6 | 26% |
| San Francisco | 77 | 704 | 734 | 78 | 84.7 - 70.3 | 8% |
| Los Angeles | 72 | 610 | 685 | 73 | 77.9 - 66.9 | 0% |
Easily the most unpredictable of all the divisions in baseball. Pythagoras says there is only a 10-game talent difference between first and last. The San Diego Padres were touted as darkhorses for the 2002 NL West pennant by many in the online community; this is the year they become serious contenders in a division without a dominant club. The Giants have lost Ponson, Aurilia, Cruz Jr, Grissom, Santiago and Worrell and are paper-thin beyond Bonds and Schmidt. A major injury to either and we could see San Fran fall to the basement. In Arizona, the addition of Sexson brightens the outlook for their offence (Alomar will help too, if he bounces back). Los Angeles has done nothing to improve their offence, and now there is talk of Shawn Green moving to first base (reducing his positional value).
https://www.battersbox.ca/article.php?story=20040115124952999