by Leigh Sprague
We have a Pinch Hit today from Leigh Sprague, who will be familiar to you all from his posts on Batter's Box. Welcome Leigh! He writes "suffering a horid case of BWS (Baseball Withdrawal Syndrome), I decided to dive headlong into the Manager Stats on Baseball-Reference.com..."
Part I
In 2003, Grady Little, Carlos Tosca and Buck Showalter were the only three Major League managers without Major League playing experience. Little was fired early in the offseason, leaving only Tosca and Showalter. Why are there only two? Do former players make the best managers? Are managers who were above average major league players better managers than those who were not very good players?
Before beginning the research, I developed a couple of hypothesis:
1. The best managers either (a) played very well, or (b) never played.
2. The worst managers played in the Majors, but very poorly.
I used all managers who (a) began managing any time between 1980 and 2003, and (b) managed at least 100 games. Since 1980, the majority of managers have been former position players. The years 1980-2003 saw the beginning of 96 managerial careers, and of those 96 managers, 81 were former major leaguers. Of those 81 former major leaguers, only four - Larry Dierker, Marcel Lachemann, Phil Regan and Larry Rothschild - were pitchers.
I divided the managers into five groups: (a) 105 or better career OPS+, (b) 81-104 career OPS+, (c) 80 or worse career OPS+, (d) only around for a cup of coffee, and (e) did not play
[All groups sorted by career winning percentage. Managers with an asterisk were pitchers, and ERA+ substituted for OPS+. Those in the Cup of Coffee group had fewer than 500 career plate appearances or 100 innings pitched]
Group A - 105 or better career OPS+: Davey Johnson, Bob Brenly, Dusty Baker, Lou Piniella, Pete Rose, Mike Hargrove, Felipe Alou, Doug Rader, Don Baylor, Tony Perez, Clint Hurdle, Hal McRae, Larry Parrish, Buddy Bell, Davey Lopes, Frank Howard and Alan Trammell.
Group B - 81-104 career OPS+: Larry Dierker*, Bill Russell, Cito Gaston, Mike Scioscia, Bobby Valentine, John Wathan, Art Howe, Phil Regan*, Cookie Rojas, Marcel Lachemann*, Jim Lefebvre, Jim Essian, Bruce Bochy, Ray Knight, Butch Hobson, Phil Garner, Tony Pena, Steve Boros, Bob Boone, Jerry Coleman, Terry Francona, Lloyd McClendon, Tony Muser, Russ Nixon and Jim Davenport.
Group C - 80 or worse career OPS+: Bob Melvin, Ron Gardenhire, Tim Johnson, Bud Harrelson, Hal Lanier, Johnny Oates, Bob Lillis, Gene Michael, Buck Rodgers, Larry Bowa, Buck Martinez, Doc Edwards, Jerry Narron, Chuck Cottier, Billy Gardner, Mike Ferraro, Ned Yost, Bill Plummer, Bobby Mattick, Jerry Royster and Luis Pujols.
Group D - Cup of Coffee: Ken Macha, Jim Tracy, Jimy Williams, Joe Morgan (no, not that Joe Morgan), Charlie Manuel, Jim Fanning, Jerry Manuel, Gene LaMont, John Felske, Tom Kelly, Jackie Moore, Tom Runnells, Lee Elia, Rene Lachemann, Jim Snyder, Eric Wedge, Eddie Haas and Larry Rothschild*.
Group E - Did not play: Grady Little, Carlos Tosca, Kevin Kennedy, Jim Frey, Buck Showalter, Terry Collins, Terry Bevington, Greg Riddoch, Tom Trebelhorn, Ray Miller, John Boles, Jim Riggleman, Nick Leyva, Stump Merrill and Cal Ripken Sr.
Here are the winning percentages for each group (they do not add up to an even .500 because I included only managerial careers which began between 1980 and 2003):
Group A .506
Group E .496
Group D .491
Group C .487
Group B .484
Suspicion confirmed, I suppose. The winningest managers are those who never played, played very little, or played very well. Those managers who played, but were not good hitters (here's lookin' at you, Mr. Guillen) had the worst record.
Part II
[Note : The "Pythagorean Theorem" uses runs scored and runs allowed in order to ascertain a team's probable winning percentage. It is generally accurate. The formula is Runs Scored^1.83/(Runs Scored^1.83 + Runs Allowed^1.83).]
While looking through manager's data during my research for the above, I got the idea of Pythagorean +/- for managers. I looked at the team's actual W-L record relative to the it's Pythagorean W-L. If any one manager managed more than 100 games for that team in that season, then that manager got the credit for the +/-. For example, in 2002, the Blue Jays' actual record was 86-76, whereas their Pythagorean W-L was 87-75. So, for 2003, Carlos Tosca earned a -1.
Obviously, I am not trying to infer anything about Tosca's managerial skills from a -1 +/- in 2003. -1 is certainly small enough to attribute to chance.
What about causation? Well, there could be many reasons for a team either surpassing or falling short of its Pythagorean W-L total. Most notably: luck or lack thereof. But sometimes the correlation is really strong. Is it possible that certain managerial attributes help a team's distribution of runs scored and runs allowed? Conversely, is it possible that certain managerial attributes hurt a team's distribution of runs scored and runs allowed?
I was skeptical at first, but then I found one delightfully strong correlation. No team managed by Jimy Williams has ever reached its Pythagorean W-L: not the Jays of 1986, 1987 or 1988; not the Red Sox of 1997, 1998, 1999 or 2000; not the Astros of 2002 or 2003. That's ten teams finishing with records worse than their run differentials would indicate. The odds of flipping a coin ten times and getting tails each time is 1 in 1,024. Maybe Jimy is unlucky and his teams keep coming up tails, or maybe there really is something there. Whether it is ineptitude, misfortune, or some sort of gypsy curse, I would not want Jimy in my team's clubhouse.
Of those managerial careers that began between 1980 and 2003, here are the top 10 in cumulative Pythagorean +/-:
Manager Team(s) Seasons +/-
Bobby Valentine Tex,NYM 13 +22
Dusty Baker SF,ChC 11 +18
Felipe Alou Mtl,SF 10 +13
Ron Gardenhire Min 2 +13
Pete Rose Cin 5 +12
Jim Frey KC,ChC 3 +11
Mike Hargrove Cle,Bal 12 +10
Art Howe Hou,Oak,NYM 13 +10
Jim Tracy LA 3 +9
Kevin Kennedy Tex,Bos 4 +8
And the worst:
Manager Team(s) Seasons +/-
Jimy Williams Tor,Bos,Hou 10 -27
Jim Riggleman SD,ChC 7 -23
Buddy Bell Det,Col 5 -21
Larry Dierker Hou 5 -16
Lee Elia ChC,Phi 4 -16
Phil Garner Mil,Det 10 -14
Doug Rader Tex,Cal 5 -13
Bud Harrelson NYM 2 -10
Gene LaMont ChW,Pit 7 -10
Tom Trebelhorn Mil,ChC 6 -9
The degree of causation is at least questionable, but some of the numbers do make strong implications. For example: Bobby Valentine, in 13 years of managing (a significant sample size) simply refuses to bring himself closer to the mean. In a thirteen year battle with Pythagoras - who is supposed to win as often as he loses - Valentine is beating him by 22 games. And then there's Jimy.
https://www.battersbox.ca/article.php?story=20031212123806999