The unorthodox Jack McKeon has done everything right so far in 2003, turning around the Marlins and guiding them to the brink of a championship. Tonight, he risks it all by sending his ace, Josh Beckett, to the mound on three days' rest.
The 23-year-old missed most of May and all of June with elbow problems, and has never started on short rest in his big league career. Though Beckett’s four-inning relief appearance against the Cubs was courageous, it was hardly awesome. The first four batters he faced hit the ball very hard; three to the warning track and one right at an outfielder. In his third inning of work, he got two more long outs and surrendered a home run to Troy O’Leary. There's no telling how effective he'll be tonight, or how long he'll last.
If this hunch works out, McKeon will be hailed as a genius. If it doesn't, he's painted himself into an uncomfortable Game 7 corner, with Carl Pavano, also on short rest, facing Mike Mussina. To me, it's like a boxer ahead on points in the late rounds trying to land a haymaker but leaving himself wide open for a knockout counter-punch. In other words, unnecessary and ill-advised.
I know, Jack's alternatives aren't great, and he doesn't want to concede Game 6. Mark Redman has been getting knocked around, Dontrelle Willis is overworked, and Rick Helling is past his best-before date. However, Andy Pettitte might not be as good as he was in Game 2, and it's possible that the Fish could have won a shootout. If it did go to a deciding game, at least the Florida ace would be fully rested, with Pavano in the bullpen, so the skipper wouldn't be as vulnerable to second-guessing.
Obviously, McKeon doesn't care what anyone thinks, and he's convinced Beckett will be just as good tonight as he would be tomorrow. If Jack's wrong, he'll be subjected to as much criticism as Grady Little and Dusty Baker combined. I would support this choice if his team was in a must-win situation, but under these circumstances, I just don't get it.
If Beckett is at his best, the Marlins could maintain their incredible record of having never lost a postseason series. They will have a great chance to become two-time world champions, even though they've never won a division title. But if Josh falters and they don't win tonight, I think it's all over, and Jack's decision to rush his ace back into action will be remembered as a classic managerial blunder.
Anyway, that's just one story line in what could be the last baseball game of a fantastic year. Should the Fish win, most observers will look back on Joe Torre's decision to entrust Game 4 to Jeff Weaver as the turning point, with Boomer's back spasms as "evidence" that Team Steinbrenner was too old, but it's mostly been a lack of offensive production. As a team, the Yanks are hitting .163 with runners in scoring position, including 0-for-6 with the bases loaded. Alfonso Soriano (assuming he starts) and Jason Giambi will be under a microscope tonight.
Recent history, strangely enough, is in the Yankees' favour, as Pistol pointed out in another thread:
The only team to take a 3-2 lead on the road in a World Series over the last 22 years and prevail was Toronto, which beat Atlanta in six games in 1992. Seven other teams in that span failed.
Last year, it was the Angels coming home to win the last two games. The year before, the Diamondbacks. Is it a trend, or does it mean the visitors are overdue?
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