The 2003 Syracuse SkyChiefs will be the last team of their type during JP's tenure in Toronto. Very few of Syracuse's position players this year were young prospects who had been drafted by the Blue Jays and advanced through the system. Most of the promising players that Gord Ash drafted or signed in the latter years of his tenure have either moved up to Toronto (Phelps, Wells, Hudson, Johnson, Woodward) or been traded (F-Lop). Gabe Gross and Kevin Cash were the only Ash draftees, undrafted free agents, or international signings to make a significant impact with the bat in Syracuse this summer; they'll be followed by Alexis Rios, Guillermo Quiroz, and Dominic Rich next year, who pretty much represent the end of that cohort. Russ Adams, Aaron Hill, Jason Waugh, Vito C, and other Ricciardi draftees will reach Syracuse in the next year or two, but the only three of Ricciardi's men to swing the bat in the Almost-Show this year were the immortal Scott Dragicevich, Brian Patrick, and Michael Galloway, who compiled 76 plate appearances in late-season call-ups.
So who filled in for the missing homegrown players? The plurality of SkyChief hitters were minor league veterans in their mid-twenties to early thirties who had been in one or two other organizations before landing in upstate New York. These guys are like the indigenous fauna of South America just before the Panama land bridge was formed. They're about to face massive competition from a horde of invaders, and they won't all still be around when the dust settles. In years to come, the minor-league vets will dwindle and be replaced by the patient (even zombie-like) college hitters coming off the Ricciardi drafting treadmill.
On to the player comments!
A note on statistics
Two sets of batting statistics are employed throughout this article without annotation:
1. The traditional BA/OBP/SLG
2. Robert Dudek's $H/$BB/$K/$P. (I've invented the notation "$P" for consistency.)
Metric How to read it in English How it is calculated
------ --------------------------------- ----------------------
$H "batting average on balls in play" (H-HR)/(AB-K-HR)
$BB "walk rate" BB/PA
$K "strikeout rate" K/PA
$P "power rating" (2*HR+2B+3B)/(AB-K)
Sets of three numbers represent BA/OBP/SLG; sets of four numbers represent Robert's stats. The latter are sometimes explicitly called "Dudek numbers" for clarity; Robert, I apologize for any embarrassment.
Player ages are as of July 1 and are given in the form years.months.
The 2003 International League
International League batsmen hit .265/.327/.401 in 2003 with a .340 batting average on balls in play, a .077 walk rate, a .179 strikeout rate, and a power rating of .134. The average IL team scored 625 runs.
The 2003 Syracuse Skychiefs
Without adjusting for park effects, Syracuse's 2003 offense was just slightly below league average. The SkyChiefs scored 598 runs while hitting .260/.327/.396; their Dudek numbers were .336/.082/.184/.136.
Statistics and comments are provided for those players who spent a substantial amount of time in Syracuse and didn't lay a firm claim to a job in Toronto. Therefore, this report includes Jayson Werth (whose future with the Jays is quite uncertain) but not Reed Johnson (who has fourth-outfielder tenure), Howie Clark (who made a good bid for a backup infield job) and Kevin Cash (who hit spectacularly badly in Toronto but will nevertheless probably start 2004 with the big club.) You'll have to get your fix of those guys elsewhere.
Alvarez, Jimmy SS/2B, age 23.9, bats B, throws R, 5'10", 168 lbs
AAA: 342 AB, 45 R, .257/.342/.371, 13 2B, 7 3B, 4 HR, 45 BB, 92 K, 11 SB, 5 CS, .358/.116/.237/.112
Sequea, Jorge 2B/SS/3B, age 22.9, bats B, throws R, 5'10", 165 lbs
AA: 111 AB, 17 R, .342/.400/.459, 7 2B, 0 3B, 2 HR, 11 BB, 21 K, 0 SB, 4 CS, .309/.097/.146/.111
AAA: 271 AB, 43 R, .255/.341/.373, 15 2B, 4 3B, 3 HR, 30 BB, 45 K, 7 SB, 5 CS, .432/.088/.168/.122
Total: 382 AB, .280/.358/.398, .344/.095/.152/.114
Since 2001, Jimmy Alvarez has advanced a level a year while putting up pretty good numbers for a middle infielder. At 21 years of age plus a full-term pregnancy, he hit .283/.351/.392 in Dunedin (Russ Adams, anyone?); last year, he bumped those numbers up to .278/.383/.402 in the more hitter-friendly Southern League. In Syracuse this year, he carbon-copied a .273/.363/.414 line ... that is, if you ignore the .211/.278/.245 tailspin in August and September. All in all, it wasn't a great season for Alvarez. He isn't very old and he doesn't have any glaring weaknesses at the plate, but neither does he really stand out from the crowd of middling infielders. Alvarez's future will likely be determined by greater powers than he can contradict: if he catches a break, he could be Dave Berg; if he doesn't, he could be Moonlight Graham. Finishing your first AAA season 18-for-86 tends to put you on the latter career path, small sample size or no.
Jorge Sequea came over from the Tigers in the offseason; when you have Omar Infante and Ramon Santiago around, what need could you have for a middle infielder who hit a respectable .267/.343/.380 in AA at age 21? Sequea hit over his head in New Haven until mid-June (c.f. Pond, Simon) and played Staples Delivery Truck Race with Alvarez after being promoted to Syracuse. Although the two players finished the season in a virtual dead heat, you have to call Sequea the better prospect at this point simply because he's a year younger. Alvarez may be a better fielder; over two-thirds of his starts were at shortstop, whereas Sequea played mostly second base after his promotion.
While Alvarez and Sequea hit for the same batting average and displayed similar power and patience at the plate, there is one important difference between their batting styles. Alvarez struck out once more every eleven plate appearances than Sequea did, but compensated by getting one extra hit on every 21 balls in play. Does this observation predict greater success for one player than for the other? If I had to put money on it, I'd say that it's more likely that Sequea will boost his $H than that Alvarez will slash his $K, but I'd like to see the evidence, too.
Aven, Bruce OF, age 31.4, bats R, throws R, 5'9", 180 lbs
AAA: 192 AB, 21 R, .214/.309/.286, 26 BB, 44 K, .283/.118/.200/.074
Colangelo, Mike OF, age 26.8, bats R, throws R, 6'0", 185 lbs
AAA: 310 AB, 42 R, .281/.375/.413, 37 BB, 74 K, .377/.103/.206/.140
Ryan, Rob OF, age 30.0, bats L, throws L, 5'11", 190 lbs
AAA: 181 AB, 30 R, .249/.333/.442, 21 BB, 24 K, .298/.101/.116/.185
Although none of these guys has a stellar minor-league track record, there was some talk in the offseason that one or more of them would head north with the big team. They all played themselves out of a job in spring training and were kicked off the team bus a few hours before it pulled into T.O. Rob Ryan hit pretty well for the SkyChiefs in the early going but was released on June 19 in anticipation of Bruce Aven's return from the DL. Well, you can't win 'em all. Mike Colangelo hit better than either of the other two; he's also by far the youngest, and his name is just priceless. He was something of a hot prospect back in 1999 with the Angels, but he missed all of 2000 with injuries and didn't do much at the plate the next two years. If the Jays gave out a Minor League Comeback Player of the Year Award, Colangelo would have to be in the running; more to the point, however, his chance of making it past Wells/Cat/Kielty/Sparky/Gross/Griffin/Lexi/Werth and grabbing a fourth outfielder's job is comparable to the Tigers' chance of making the playoffs in BP's latest Postseason Odds Report. Mike, you're in the wrong organization.
Burnham, Gary 1B, age 28.9, bats L, throws L, 5'11", 200 lbs
AAA: 349 AB, 44 R, .269/.328/.424, 25 BB, 54 K, .326/.065/.141/.149
Baseball Prospectus 2003 made the caustic remark that Burnham fits the first two-thirds of the phrase "freely available talent" but comes up short in the remainder. Unfortunately, their assessment is largely accurate. After being stuck in AA for three years in the Phillies' organization, Burnham hit well for Syracuse in 2002 but didn't manage to push past Brian Lesher and Pedro Swann in the Let's-Acquire-Major-League-Service-Time Sweepstakes. In 2003, Burnham's walk rate fell and his strikeout rate rose; more importantly, Simon Pond has passed him in the ranking of guys who can hit AAA pitching but don't have any defensive versatility. The Jays are willing to give AAA veterans a chance, but they've got an enormous backlog of guys who can hit a little and have more upside, so Burnham really needs to find another organization that's just as open to minor-league vets but doesn't have as much talent at the higher levels. Either that, or he'll spend the next few years playing a pretty good first base in the IL and PCL; it's probably not such bad work.
Gross, Gabe OF, age 23.8, bats L, throws R, 6'3", 205 lbs
AA: 310 AB, 52 R, .319/.423/.481, 23 2B, 3 3B, 7 HR, 52 BB, 53 K, .396/.141/.144/.156
AAA: 182 AB, 22 R, .264/.380/.456, 16 2B, 2 3B, 5 HR, 31 BB, 56 K, .397/.144/.259/.222
Total: 492 AB, .299/.407/.472, .396/.142/.186/.178
Gross's 2002 was about as big of a disappointment as one could have imagined. I recall Baseball America claiming that he made a lot of loud outs early in the season, got frustrated, and lost his stroke. Considering that Gross's year by year $H numbers for 2001-2003 are .403, .298, and .396, the theory certainly seems plausible. Anyway, Gross had an excellent year in 2003; repeating AA, all four of his Dudek numbers improved. He demonstrated excellent plate discipline and good gap power; one hopes that some of those two-baggers will turn into four-baggers down the road. After a July 10 promotion to Syracuse, Gross continued to hit well, and his power jumped markedly. A note of caution: so did his strikeouts. In fact, Gross's numbers in AAA are reminiscent of Jayson Werth's numbers the previous year (insofar as one can really reminisce about such things):
Player Year Level Age $H $BB $K $P
Jayson Werth 2002 AAA 23.1 0.380 0.128 0.239 0.198
Gabe Gross 2003 AAA 23.8 0.397 0.144 0.259 0.222
Both players hit for a high average on batted balls and demonstrated power and willingness to take a walk. Oh, and they both struck out an awful lot. I don't mean to suggest that Gross is no better of a prospect now than Werth was a year ago. However, I hope that he gets sent back to AAA for a few months to start the year with instructions that he is expected to cut his strikeout rate before getting called up. As we are all aware, strikeouts qua strikeouts aren't very damaging, but a high strikeout rate at one level is often thought (based on admittedly sketchy evidence) to be a negative indicator of success at the next level. Anyway, Gross has an excellent and well-deserved chance to seize the right field job sometime next year, and he could hit like Eric Hinske v.2002. The comparisons to Shawn Green are more than a tad ridiculous, but Gross should be a good right fielder for years to come.
Huckaby, Ken C/1B, age 32.5, "bats R," throws R, 6'1", 205 lbs
AAA: 267 AB, 24 R, .292/.326/.378, 15 BB, 30 K, .333/.053/.105/.084
If Colangelo and Burnham are in the wrong organization, Huckaby's in the wrong era. He doesn't have a great arm, but he has a reputation for calling a good game and framing pitches better than just about anybody. He doesn't walk or hit for power, but he hardly ever strikes out, so his batting average is respectable. He could have been Brad Ausmus if everything had broken his way. Huckaby and Simon Pond are working on a scheme for getting called up together to play on days that Mark Hendrickson pitches: Hendrickson will bat for himself and Pond will DH for Huckaby.
Keene, Kurt OF/3B/2B/SS/1B, age 25.10, bats R, throws R, 6'0", 190 lbs
A: 135 AB, 20 R, .341/.388/.467, 7 BB, 19 K, .404/.048/.129/.121
AA: 153 AB, 18 R, .281/.327/.366, 10 BB, 12 K, .309/.060/.071/.078
AAA: 140 AB, 20 R, .236/.299/.314, 13 BB, 28 K, .297/.084/.182/.080
Total: 428 AB, 58 R, .285/.337/.381, .335/.064/.126/.092
In 2001, Keene hit .179/.216/.211 in 190 AB for Charleston and Dunedin, so he's actually improved a great deal in two years. Check back in two more; if he's improved again by the same amount, he could be the second coming of Luis Sojo, and sit on the end of Joe Torre's bench for several years collecting World Series rings.
Combining his totals over all three levels, Keene played 26 games at second base, 30 at short, and 19 at third, as well as 32 in the outfield and 4 at first base. You have to figure he knows how to field a baseball pretty well.
Moriarty, Mike SS/3B, age 29.4, bats R, throws R, 6'0", 195 lbs
AAA: 176 AB, 25 R, .233/.317/.318, 21 BB, 30 K, .287/.106/.151/.082
In five previous AAA seasons, Moriarty showed patience at the plate and not a great deal else. His numbers slipped in 2003 and the Jays released him on June 20, whereupon he was signed by Houston and sent to New Orleans for the duration.
Pond, Simon 3B/1B, age 26.10, bats L, throws R, 6'1", 190 lbs
AA: 228 AB, 44 R, .338/.440/.513, 17 2B, 1 3B, 7 HR, 39 BB, 33 K, .410/.143/.121/.164
AAA: 248 AB, 33 R, .306/.353/.460, 21 2B, 1 3B, 5 HR, 16 BB, 42 K, .378/.060/.158/.155
Total: 476 AB, 77 R, .321/.397/.485, .393/.102/.139/.160
Much as I hate to do this, here are Simon Pond's month-by-month 2003 hitting stats:
Month AB BA OBP SLG BB K Comp (by OPS)
April 74 .378 .516 .622 18 7 Albert Pujols
May 112 .357 .438 .518 16 19 Richard Hidalgo
June 86 .291 .358 .500 8 13 Steve Finley
July 84 .298 .337 .452 4 8 Angel Berroa
Aug./Sept. 120 .292 .346 .383 9 28 Mark Kotsay
I haven't seen anyone decline that much in six months since I took a half-year Latin course. Don't get me wrong; the June/July version of Simon Pond is still a valuable organizational soldier; however, he won't be getting the call from T-dot anytime soon. Pond was on the disabled list for a brief period in June, so it's possible that he was playing hurt the rest of the year. In its totality, Pond's 2003 season should not really have been so surprising; the man hit .321/.378/.473 in the FSL in 2000, .268/.321/.443 in the EL in 2001 and .284/.357/.479 back in the FSL last year. The FSL is a poor hitters' league, so those batting lines are actually quite good.
So where does he go from here? If he hits .290/.350/.460 in Syracuse next year, I don't think he'll be able to crack the 25-man roster -- the Jays have loads of cheap guys who can hit a little, and many of them are younger than Pond and better fielders to boot. Even if he hits .320/.400/.500 for the SkyChiefs, it's hard to see what role the Jays would have for him.
"A patient hitter with a sweet line-drive swing and good but not great power. Stuck in the minor until his late 20s. Played a rotten third base (with some first base on the side) before becoming a full-time DH." I remember once reading of a certain hockey player that "if Mike Foligno is a poor man's Mark Messier, then this guy's a poor man's Mike Foligno." I'm not sure who the poor man's Edgar Martinez would be, but Simon Pond is the poor man's version of him. Cheap jokes aside, Seattle could do worse than taking a flyer on a guy like Pond if Edgar retired.
And no, in case you were wondering, I never actually took a half-year Latin course.
Werth, Jayson OF/C, age 24.1, bats R, throws R, 6'5", 190 lbs
A: 62 AB, 10 R, 23 H, .371/.388/.645, 5 2B, 0 3B, 4 HR, 3 BB, 14 K, .523/.045/.209/.271
AAA: 236 AB, 37 R, 56 H, .237/.285/.441, 19 2B, 1 3B, 9 HR, 15 BB, 68 K, 11 SB, 1 CS, .352/.059/.266/.226
MLB: 48 AB, 7 R, 10 H, .208/.255/.417, 4 2B, 0 3B, 2 HR, 3 BB, 22 K, .417/.059/.431/.308
Total: 346 AB, 54 R, 89 H, .267/.300/.474, 28 2B, 1 3B, 15 HR, 21 BB, 104 K, 13 SB, 1 CS, .392/.057/.283/.244
While Werth modestly boosted his power in 2003, he slipped in every other hitting category, most noticeably walk-drawing:
Year Level $H $BB $K $P
2001 AA .407 .146 .215 .217
2002 AAA .380 .128 .239 .198
2003 AAA .352 .059 .266 .226
Werth has several things going for him: speed, athleticism, power, defence, and positional versatility. However, it's unclear what role he might have in the Jays' plans. He's not ready to grab an outfield job right now, and he's not going to bump Wells, Gross, or Rios in the medium to long term. He's several inches above the Ricciardi/Law height limit for catchers, and Quiroz is a better hitter to boot. Reed Johnson soundly thrashed Werth in the 2003 Fourth Outfielder Sweepstakes. At the risk of sounding like a broken record, Werth really needs to get out of Toronto. There are lots of teams that could use a fourth outfielder and backup catcher with some pop in his bat; hell, there are lots of teams that could do worse than to give Werth a shot as their starting catcher. Maybe we can get John Bale back for him.
Williams, Glenn 3B/1B/OF/2B/SS, age 25.11, bats B, throws R, 6'1", 190 lbs
AAA: 210 AB, 27 R, 49 H, .233/.277/.352, 12 BB, 56 K, .325/.054/.250/.123
Williams came over from the Braves after the 1999 season. He hit well in Dunedin the following summer (.261/.318/.448), had an off year in 2001, and made himself mildly interesting in 2002 by hitting .274/.319/.478 in Syracuse. After last year's implosion, it's hard to imagine him ever making it to T.O. His BB/K ratio has worsened in each of the last two years. Williams, like Keene, is another guy who played all over the diamond in 2003.
Wise, DeWayne OF, age 25.4, bats L, throws L, 6'1", 180 lbs
AAA: 285 AB, 37 R, 62 H, .218/.262/.389, 11 2B, 4 3B, 10 HR, 17 BB, 72 K, 11 SB, 3 CS, .305/.056/.236/.164
The Jays took Wise in the Rule 5 draft after the 1999 season, and he spent all of 2000 on the major league roster (apart from a brief "rehab assignment" to Tennessee.) Needless to say, this experience did nothing for his development as a baseball player. Wise did nothing with the bat in 2001; the following summer, however, he put together a very creditable .297/.350/.471 batting line in Tennessee. The 2003 debacle has probably ruined Wise's chance of making it back to Toronto.
Zuniga, Tony 3B, age 28.6, bats R, throws R, 6'0", 185 lbs
AAA: 261 AB, 33 R, 77 H, .295/.362/.510, 20 2B, 0 3B, 12 HR, 27 BB, 47 K, .381/.093/.162/.206
Syracuse's best hitter in 2003, and the only one to beat league norms in all four Dudek numbers. This was probably Zuniga's career year, so it's kind of a shame that he only piled up 261 AB and never got called up to The Show.
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