American League Championship Series: Thursday, October 9th, 2003

Thursday, October 09 2003 @ 08:00 AM EDT

Boston Red Sox at New York Yankees, 8 PM ET (Game 2)

The Yankees have scored only 18 runs in 5 post-season games, which is almost 2 runs less per game than their regular season rate. Of course you don't face the likes of Tampa Bay and Texas in the post-season so a drop off should be expected. The Red Sox have experienced a similar drop off, but have faced a more impressive assortment of pitchers in their 6 post-season games.

I'm not worried about the linedrive hitters - Jeter, Bernie and Nick Johnson. Posada and Giambi are more of a concern - hitters who depend on the walk and the deep fly. Collectively, they have 8 hits in 40 AB, with 4 doubles, 3 walks and 13 strikeouts. Derek Lowe is fairly good at preventing walks and homerunss, and it's especially difficult to hit homeruns off Pedro. With mediocre offensive players Juan Rivera (I'd love to see them start Sierra) and Aaron Boone at the bottom of the lineup, the offence doesn't look all that great when Jorge and Jason are making outs.

Andy Pettitte is a little bit of a mystery to me. When I watch him, I often think: "this guy has the stuff to be one of the 5 best pitchers in the American League". He always seems to lose a little of his command at the wrong time or has games when he gets torched. He entered the Yankees rotation as a 23-year old and made a seamless adjustment to the big leagues. His year-end numbers have been consistent throughout his career - but they've never been awesome.

After Pettitte's massive workload in 1997, he suffered a decline in his strikeout rate. It looked like he might be on the finesse lefty career path. The arrival of Roger Clemens in New York signalled a return to higher strikeout rates for Pettitte. Whether it was Roger's influence, arm recovery, or something else, his strikeout rate has climbed to a career best in 2003 of just over 20% (one of the highest rates among American League starting pitchers).

There's been some talk that Andy Pettitte will be cut loose by the Yankees after this post-season. I find this hard to believe, but if he bombs against the Red Sox and George gets angry we ought to entertain this as a possibility. I think Pettitte has about 6 very good years left in him, and he should get up to the 260-275 wins range by the time he calls it a day. That would make him an interesting Hall of Fame candidate, but having great offensive and bullpen support has boosted his win total and I'm not sure the next generation of sportswriters will be able to account for it.

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