Boston Red Sox at New York Yankees, 8 PM ET (Game 1)
I see these two clubs as evenly matched. I don't think level of playoff experience will mean much in this series - many of the Red Sox have plenty of post-season experience. In my mind, the series hinges on the starts made by Pedro Martinez. He's matched up against Roger Clemens, who is vulnerable to teams who walk and have power. On the other hand, Pedro hasn't been all that great against the Yankees in recent years. If Boston can't win both of the Pedro starts, they will probably lose the series.
Game 1's largest variable is Tim Wakefield. He can be great and awful in the same game and often is; Jeter and Soriano will surely attempt some steals if they reach base.
| Player | Starts | IP/start | R/9ip | W/9ip | K/9ip | HR/9ip | Team |
| Mike Mussina | 31 | 6.92 | 3.61 | 1.68 | 8.18 | 0.88 | NYY |
| Andy Pettitte | 33 | 6.31 | 4.71 | 2.16 | 7.78 | 0.91 | NYY |
| Roger Clemens | 33 | 6.41 | 4.21 | 2.47 | 8.08 | 1.02 | NYY |
| David Wells | 30 | 6.91 | 4.34 | 0.87 | 4.30 | 1.04 | NYY |
| Tim Wakefield | 33 | 6.04 | 4.79 | 3.16 | 7.59 | 1.04 | BOS |
| Derek Lowe | 33 | 6.16 | 5.00 | 3.19 | 4.87 | 0.75 | BOS |
| Pedro Martinez | 29 | 6.44 | 2.51 | 2.27 | 9.93 | 0.34 | BOS |
| John Burkett | 30 | 5.76 | 5.47 | 2.40 | 5.21 | 0.99 | BOS |
| New York Yankees | 6.60 | 4.20 | 1.93 | 7.48 | 0.95 | ||
| Boston Red Sox | 6.15 | 4.30 | 2.81 | 7.14 | 0.75 |
According to regular season stats, Pedro is the best starting pitcher in the series, followed by Mike Mussina. The Yankees have greater starting depth, but Derek Lowe has pitched much better than his regular season numbers in the post-season. Yankee starters are likely to go deeper into the game, but are actually a little worse on paper than Boston's starters when you account for park (though most of that difference is Pedro). If the Yankees pitchers don't give up many long balls they will be tough to beat.
| Team | IP | H | ER | W | K | HR | BF | BIP | BIP avg | K rate | W rate | Pitches per BF | ERA |
| New York Starters | 28.7 | 24 | 6 | 7 | 27 | 2 | 117 | 81 | .272 | .233 | .052 | 3.57 | 1.88 |
| Boston Starters | 32.3 | 32 | 13 | 12 | 19 | 1 | 141 | 106 | .292 | .136 | .080 | 3.89 | 3.62 |
| New York Pen | 7.3 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 25 | 16 | .125 | .250 | .043 | 3.64 | 0.00 |
| Boston Pen | 16.3 | 6 | 2 | 9 | 18 | 0 | 63 | 35 | .171 | .286 | .145 | 3.98 | 1.10 |
notes: BIP rate is batting average on balls in the field of play; W rate is non-intentional walks per opportunity (PA-IW-HBP)
The Yankee pitchers had the free-swinging Twins to contend with - now they will have to face a much more patient and potent offensive club. Boston's pitchers faced a patient team in the first round, but one with less power than the Bombers. I figure New York will have to make more of an adjustment.
Both bullpens excelled in the first round. The Red Sox needed their pen in the first round and they passed all the tests with flying colours. The Yankees must be very upset at the prospect of NOT facing Mr. Kim.
| Wednesday | FLA | Brad Penny | at | CHI | Mark Prior | 8 PM ET |
| BOS | Tim Wakefield | at | NYY | Mike Mussina | 8 PM ET | |
| Tuesday | FLA | Josh Beckett | at | CHI | Carlos Zambrano | 9-8 FLA |
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https://www.battersbox.ca/article.php?story=20031008074557999