Florida Marlins at Chicago Cubs, 8 PM ET (Game 1)
Both teams' offences are righthander-heavy. This is an advantage for the Cubbies, since all their starters will be righties, while lefties are scheduled to start Games 3,4 and 7 (unless McKeon starts Carl Pavano) for Florida.
The only lefthanded hitters we'll see on a regular basis are Kenny Lofton (Cubs), Juan Pierre (Marlins), and the switch hitter Luis Castillo (Marlins). Lefthanded hitting Paul Bako might catch Kerry Wood, and Randall Simon will make a few appearances for the Cubs. The rest of the starting lineups will feature righthanded hitters. It will be a tall order for the Fish to score runs in this series.
The Marlins-Giants series averaged 9 runs a game while the Cubs-Braves series averaged 6.8 runs a game. The Braves hitters are much better than Florida's, and their starting pitchers are a little worse. That's an indication the series will be a low scoring affair.
| Player | Starts | IP/start | R/9ip | W/9ip | K/9ip | HR/9ip | Team |
| Carlos Zambrano | 32 | 6.69 | 3.70 | 3.95 | 7.07 | 0.38 | CHI |
| Mark Prior | 30 | 7.04 | 2.85 | 2.13 | 10.43 | 0.64 | CHI |
| Kerry Wood | 32 | 6.59 | 3.28 | 4.27 | 11.35 | 1.02 | CHI |
| Matt Clement | 32 | 6.30 | 4.46 | 3.53 | 7.63 | 0.62 | CHI |
| Josh Beckett | 23 | 6.13 | 3.45 | 3.57 | 9.64 | 0.57 | FLA |
| Brad Penny | 32 | 6.14 | 4.40 | 2.57 | 6.33 | 0.96 | FLA |
| Mark Redman | 29 | 6.57 | 3.87 | 2.88 | 7.13 | 0.76 | FLA |
| Dontrelle Willis | 27 | 5.95 | 3.42 | 3.25 | 7.95 | 0.73 | FLA |
| Chicago Cubs | 6.71 | 3.45 | 3.46 | 9.33 | 0.67 | ||
| Florida Marlins | 6.23 | 3.84 | 3.04 | 7.74 | 0.76 |
The team lines are the weighted average by expected number of series starts, assuming a 7-game series. The Cubs have the edge in everything except walks per 9 IP. Keep in mind that Florida plays in a park where homeruns are hard to come by. Assuming both bullpens give up runs at a rate of 4 per 9 innings, the Cubs non-park-adjusted pitching edge is about half a run. That goes up to about 0.7 when parks are considered.
Prior and Wood are slated to pitch games 6 and 7 if necessary, so the Marlins pretty much have to be up 3-2 after 5 games. They need to win both games that Josh Beckett starts (Games 1 and 5) and beat one of Chicago's big two at least once in the first 5 contests. If the Marlins lose game 1, they potentially will face Wood/Prior in 4 of the 6 remaining games and will therefore need to beat them twice at a minimum. That's why this first game is more important to Florida than to Chicago.
| Team | IP | H | ER | W | K | HR | BF | BIP | BIP avg | K rate | W rate | Pitches per BF | ERA |
| Chicago Starters | 34.7 | 28 | 11 | 15 | 32 | 2 | 147 | 97 | .268 | .218 | .103 | 3.78 | 2.86 |
| Florida Starters | 22.3 | 18 | 12 | 11 | 21 | 0 | 96 | 64 | .281 | .223 | .096 | 3.69 | 4.43 |
| Chicago Pen | 9.3 | 7 | 4 | 6 | 10 | 1 | 41 | 24 | .250 | .250 | .125 | 4.20 | 3.86 |
| Florida Pen | 14.7 | 14 | 3 | 9 | 7 | 0 | 67 | 49 | .286 | .115 | .051 | 3.64 | 1.84 |
notes: BIP rate is batting average on balls in the field of play; W rate is non-intentional walks per opportunity (PA-IW-HBP)
The Marlins starters kept up with the Cubs in strikeouts and walks, but had a higher ERA. They didn't go as deep into games (5.58 IP/start versus 6.93 for the Cubs) as Chicago's starters and therefore relied heavily on their bullpen. That will likely repeat itself in this series.
| Tuesday | FLA | Josh Beckett | at | CHI | Carlos Zambrano | 8 PM ET |
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https://www.battersbox.ca/article.php?story=20031007075820999