Division Series: Thursday, October 2nd, 2003

Thursday, October 02 2003 @ 04:00 AM EDT

Boston Red Sox at Oakland Athletics, 4 PM ET (game 2)

I couldn't keep my eyes open past 1 AM ET, so I missed the latter innings of this game. Some of what I wrote yesterday came true: the game was decided by the bullpens, the Sox did manage to elevate the ball, and the A's were very patient.

One thing that I did not foresee was the lack of confidence the Sox had in their bullpen, which precipitated leaving Pedro on the mound to face two tough lefthanders even as his pitch count climbed towards 130. Time will tell if his effort has an impact on his next start (assuming the series goes that long).

Today, the Athletics have the edge. Lefthander Barry Zito will attempt to neutralize some of Boston's potent lefthanded bats. Tim Wakefield is an enigma - I don't expect a lot of success for him against a team as disciplined as the A's.

Tim Wakefield (2002/2003)

versus	AB	H	HR	TB	W	K	HBP	SB	CS	OBP	SLG	K pct	W pct
right	724	160	25	263	45	175	18	20	8	.283	.363	.222	.059
left	651	154	13	242	77	128	3	24	7	.320	.372	.175	.106

These are interesting splits. Wakefield seems to pitch inside a lot more against righthanded batters (lots of HBP), while keeping the ball away from leafthanders (resulting in a high walk rate). This bodes well for the Durazo, Hatteberg and Chavez. Chavez has the speed to steal off Wakefield - we'll see if he gets the chance. Because of the number of passed balls Wakefield induces, the key for him will be keeping runners off the base paths.

notes: OBP is calculated without including sac flies (H+W+HBP)/(AB+W+HBP); player in red indicates the batter is at a platoon disadvantage.

With the exception of Byrnes instead of Singleton in centre, there are no changes to the Athletics' lineup.

Zito appears to have a reverse platoon split, but keep in mind that the better lefthanded batters bat against a top lefthanded starter for the most part. Zito faces about 2 lefties and 7 righties/switch hitters in a typical lineup. Zito likes to pitch up and the zone and walks guys when he can't command his excellent curveball. I'll be surprised if there are fewer than 10 runs scored in this ballgame.

notes: OBP is calculated without including sac flies (H+W+HBP)/(AB+W+HBP); player in red indicates the batter is at a platoon disadvantage.

How many lefties would Little put in the lineup? Damon was a lock, and Walker went from possible to likely after he hit a homerun off a lefty. David Ortiz seemed like a long shot, while Trot Nixon was almost sure to get the day off to rest. Boston might have gone with Mirabelli behind the plate with Varitek DH'ing (or vice versa)

So what did the Sox do? Varitek sits in favour of Ortiz as the DH. I, for one, do not see the percentage in this move.

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