Division Series: Wednesday, October 1st, 2003

Wednesday, October 01 2003 @ 07:04 AM EDT

Contributed by: robertdudek

Chicago Cubs at Atlanta Braves, 7 PM ET (game 2)

A must-must-win game for the Braves. Facing Prior in Wrigley in Game 3 down 2-0 would just about spell curtains for the top regular season dog in the National League. If the Braves lose this series, it won't be a big upset in my book. But it will add just a little bit of spice to the "Bobby Cox can't manage in a short series" broth that's been simmering for almost 20 years.

Carlos Zambrano (2002/2003)
versusABHHRTBWKHBPSBCSOBPSLGK pctW pct
right70917111235811481063.328.331.185.103
left477111716576113447.343.346.203.137

Zambrano's problem has always been control and the Braves are a patient ballclub. The number of runs the Braves score depends on how well they do with men on base, because I'm confident they'll have plenty of those situations.


Atlanta Braves versus Righthanded Pitchers (2002/2003)
PlayerABH2B3BHRWKSBCSHBPavgobpslg
R Furcal10312994616177614845156.290.342.415
M DeRosa3379315171758236.276.322.389
G Sheffield858273501521209425416.318.411.561
L Jones87927757347162139743.315.423.547
J Lopez63917931341471190211.280.340.531
A Jones9432595025810421411414.275.355.516
R Fick739203522217294105.275.343.436
V Castilla88522345527341345310.252.287.406
pitcher

notes: OBP is calculated without including sac flies (H+W+HBP)/(AB+W+HBP); player in red indicates the batter is at a platoon disadvantage.

The Braves weren't able to handle Wood's stuff last night, but Zambrano's is ever so slightly less potent. Working the count is going to pay off aginst Zambrano - I don't think he'll be effective past 110 pitches tonight.

Mike Hampton (2002/2003)
versusABHHRTBWKHBPSBCSOBPSLGK pctW pct
right114232625476134130347.362.417.102.105
left31688131363554541.360.430.152.100

Mike Hampton's game is controlling the running game and getting the ground ball double play. He'll give up a bunch of walks, but isn't less effective against righthanders than lefthanders. The Cubs don't run anyway, so the key to their offence in this game will be avoiding the GIDP.



Chicago Cubs versus Lefthanded Pitchers (2002/2003)
PlayerABH2B3BHRWKSBCSHBPavgobpslg
K Lofton24460 13511629664.246.303.348
M Grudzielanek2096416032428112.306.383.426
S Sosa206726 1185447010.350.485.650
M Alou2428117282624101.335.401.521
A Ramirez26071 130191541002.273.318.542
E Karros2137317162817211.343.421.516
R Martinez1404310 231623211.307.382.471
D Miller2005218023244000.260.362.380
pitcher              

notes: OBP is calculated without including sac flies (H+W+HBP)/(AB+W+HBP); player in red indicates the batter is at a platoon disadvantage.

Kenny Lofton leading off for the Cubs against a lefthander is a bad idea. He's the only lefthanded batter in the lineup and should be batting 8th. I'd lead off Grudzielanek, followed by Ramon Martinez. The Cubs offence against lefties is potentially as good as the Braves versus rightahnders. This game will come down to how much command Zambrano has. If he walks too many guys, the final score might be something like 7-4 for the Braves.

Playoff Schedule
       
TuesdayMINJohan SantanaatNYYMike Mussina3-1 MIN
...FLAJosh BeckettatSFJason Schmidt2-0 SFG
...CHIKerry WoodatATLRuss Ortiz4-2 CHI
       
Wednesday FLABrad PennyatSF Sidney Ponson4:00
...CHICarlos ZambranoatATL Mike Hampton7:00
...BOSPedro MartinezatOAK Tim Hudson10:00
       
ThursdayBOSTim WakefieldatOAKBarry Zito4:00
...MINBrad RadkeatNYYAndy Pettitte8:00
       
FridaySFKirk RuerteratFLAMark Redman4:00
...ATLGreg MadduxatCHIMark Prior8:00

 

2003 Playoff Series
New York Yankees
versus
Minnesota Twins
MIN leads 1-0
...........| |...........
Atlanta Braves
versus
Chicago Cubs
CHI leads 1-0
 
ALCS
 
NLCS
 
Oakland Athletics
versus
Boston Red Sox
ALDS-WC
...........| |...........
San Francisco Giants
versus
Florida Marlins
SF leads 1-0

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