Division Series: Wednesday, October 1st, 2003

Wednesday, October 01 2003 @ 03:37 AM EDT

Contributed by: robertdudek

Florida Marlins at San Francisco Giants, 4 PM ET (Game 2)

It looks like the righthander Ponson will start game 2. The Marlins have very few potent lefthanded bats (even on the bench) and so Ponson is a solid choice. Rueter wouldn't be a bad choice, either: he'd be a good bet to shut off the running game, and it's hard for the Marlins to generate runs in other ways.

It didn't have a large impact on the game, but the automatic walk to Bonds with the bases empty and two outs in the 8th was a bit much. By all means pitch him carefully - at least you'd have a shot at getting the out.

Brad Penny (2002/2003)
versusABHHRTBWKHBPSBCSOBPSLGK pctW pct
right66217822290421171114.313.438.166.060
left59116517264641143103.353.447.173.098

Brad Penny walks significantly more lefthanded batters, but otherwise has a minimal left-right split. Bonds will most likely be walked 3 times out of 5 plate appearances and the Giants have three other lefties that draw walks. Prediction: if Penny walks more than 4 guys he's going to lose.

San Francisco Giants versus Righthanded Pitchers (2002/2003)
PlayerABH2B3BHRWKSBCSHBPavgobpslg
R Durham729206489199713727137.283.372.451
JT Snow6341683741290111027.265.363.393
R Aurilia8152194821854139235.269.318.399
B Bonds54418939254265676112.347.568.724
E Alfonzo7772153822178771019.277.350.412
B Santiago6631843161937105213.278.319.459
M Grissom65718136417231131222.275.302.420
J Cruz72717636628120183860.242.349.424
pitcher

notes: OBP is calculated without including sac flies (H+W+HBP)/(AB+W+HBP); player in red indicates the batter is at a platoon disadvantage.

The Giants go with the same lineup. Is Jose Cruz in Felipe's doghouse?


Sidney Ponson (2002/2003)
versusABHHRTBWKHBPSBCSOBPSLGK pctW pct
right75219325321471195122.305.427.148.059
left7351901728177135267.330.382.166.095

Patient lefhanded hitters can draw walks against Ponson, but the Marlins have only one batter who fits that description (Luis Castillo). The conclusion I draw from the data is that Ponson goes after righthanded batters and is very careful against lefties. Last night off Schmidt, the Fish could do nothing more than hit flyballs to rightfield (only Pudge was able to make good contact on those). Ponson will be more hittable, and we'll see if Florida's righhanded mashers can find the gaps.

Florida Marlins versus Righthanded Pitchers (2002/2003)

PlayerABH2B3BHRWKSBCSHBPavgobpslg
J Pierre92627240102757186258.294.352.365
L Castillo87126521719010356262.304.371.347
I Rodriguez69420347428501301176.293.345.493
D Lee88823453646136236351413.264.369.492
M Cabrera2596416292274012.247.311.429
J Encarnacion9352584810366315932137.276.326.464
J Conine7892175162647921107.275.321.454
A Gonzalez53413130514351132415.245.310.399
pitcher              

notes: OBP is calculated without including sac flies (H+W+HBP)/(AB+W+HBP); player in red indicates the batter is at a platoon disadvantage.

Florida goes with the same lineup, and should have more success than they did yesterday. I'd like to see Encarnacion and Conine batting ahead of Cabrera.

Playoff Schedule
       
TuesdayMINJohan SantanaatNYYMike Mussina3-1 MIN
...FLAJosh BeckettatSFJason Schmidt2-0 SFG
...CHIKerry WoodatATLRuss Ortiz4-2 CHI
       
WednesdayFLABrad PennyatSFSidney Ponson4:00
...CHICarlos ZambranoatATLMike Hampton7:00
...BOSPedro MartinezatOAKTim Hudson10:00
       
ThursdayBOSTim WakefieldatOAKBarry Zito4:00
...MINBrad RadkeatNYYAndy Pettitte8:00
       
FridaySFKirk RuerteratFLAMark Redman4:00
...ATLGreg MadduxatCHIMark Prior8:00

 

2003 Playoff Series
New York Yankees
versus
Minnesota Twins
MIN leads 1-0
...........| |...........
Atlanta Braves
versus
Chicago Cubs
CHI leads 1-0
 
ALCS
 
NLCS
 
Oakland Athletics
versus
Boston Red Sox
ALDS-WC
...........| |...........
San Francisco Giants
versus
Florida Marlins
SF leads 1-0

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