Division Series: Tuesday, September 30th, 2003

Tuesday, September 30 2003 @ 07:57 AM EDT

Contributed by: robertdudek

Chicago Cubs at Atlanta Braves, 8 PM ET

The best offensive team in the National League will face one of the best starting rotations around. The Braves would like to win tonight's game and put the pressure on Zambrano in game 2. The Cubs' best chance to win the series is to take the 3 games Wood and Prior are scheduled to start.

Kerry Wood (2002/2003)
versusABHHRTBWKHBPSBCSOBPSLGK pct
right83717828304832742497.302.363.290
left676143182301142091397.336.340.260

Wood is surprisingly tough to run on for a young power pitcher. Lefties reach base a little more often but hit for less power than righties off him. Prediction: Wood is going to throw 130 pitches before he comes out of this game.



Atlanta Braves versus Righthanded Pitchers (2002/2003)
PlayerABH2B3BHRWKSBCSHBPavgobpslg
R Furcal10312994616177614845156.290.342.415
M Giles59518154320659413511.304.383.506
G Sheffield858273501521209425416.318.411.561
L Jones87927757347162139743.315.423.547
A Jones9432595025810421411414.275.355.516
J Lopez63917931341471190211.280.340.531
R Fick739203522217294105.275.343.436
V Castilla88522345527341345310.252.287.406
pitcher

notes: OBP is calculated without including sac flies (H+W+HBP)/(AB+W+HBP); player in red indicates the batter is at a platoon disadvantage.

What's not to like about the Braves lineup? That's 5 consecutive batters with +.500 slugging averages. With apologies to Javy Lopez, it's the emergence of Furcal and Giles as a force at the top of the order that has ignited the offence.

Russ Ortiz (2002/2003)
versusABHHRTBWKHBPSBCSOBPSLGK pct
right82217321281921678199.296.342.181
left763195112771041190103.345.363.137

Ortiz is the first starting pitcher in the 2003 playoffs that you can get a significant edge against with the platoon advantage. His strikeout rate against lefthanded batters is dangerously low, and his OBP against is not very impressive.


Chicago Cubs versus Righthanded Pitchers (2002/2003)
PlayerABH2B3BHRWKSBCSHBPavgobpslg
K Lofton8352414912221019553141.289.366.455
M Grudzielanek8072324519271259212.287.320.379
S Sosa86723235171111240208.268.356.556
M Alou80721041029841041016.260.334.419
A Ramirez86821645226561534216.249.306.395
E Karros6451642511837103325.254.300.380
A Gonzalez8111934932962211449.238.299.413
P Bako3668818443979031.240.315.344
pitcher              

notes: OBP is calculated without including sac flies (H+W+HBP)/(AB+W+HBP); player in red indicates the batter is at a platoon disadvantage.

Much like the Marlins, the Cubs have a dearth of lefthanded batters in the lineup. I'm puzzled as to why Karros is starting instead of Simon (unless there's an injury I haven't heard about); Bako is the 2nd lefty "bat" (I use the term loosely) in the lineup. Ortiz isn't a great pitcher, so it's reasonable to expect the Cubs to score 3 or 4 runs in 7 or 8 innings off him. If Smoltz is up to full speed the Braves will have a slight edge late in the game, though I really like the work Remlinger has been doing in 8th innings this year.

Playoff Schedule
       
TuesdayMINJohan SantanaatNYYMike Mussina3-1 MIN
...FLAJosh BeckettatSFJason Schmidt2-0 SFG
...CHIKerry WoodatATLRuss Ortiz8:00
       
WednesdayFLABrad PennyatSFSidney Ponson4:00
...CHICarlos ZambranoatATLMike Hampton7:00
...BOSPedro MartinezatOAKTim Hudson10:00
       
ThursdayBOSTim WakefieldatOAKBarry Zito4:00
...MINBrad RadkeatNYYAndy Pettitte8:00
       
FridaySFKirk RuerteratFLAMark Redman4:00
...ATLGreg MadduxatCHIMark Prior8:00

 

2003 Playoff Series
New York Yankees
versus
Minnesota Twins
ALDS
...........| |...........
Atlanta Braves
versus
Chicago Cubs
NLDS
 
ALCS
 
NLCS
 
Oakland Athletics
versus
Boston Red Sox
ALDS-WC
...........| |...........
San Francisco Giants
versus
Florida Marlins
NLDS-WC

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