Pennant Crunch: Friday, September 26, 2003

Friday, September 26 2003 @ 09:07 AM EDT

The NL Central will not be decided before Saturday and Florida has yet to clinch, but 6 other teams have claimed playoff spots. The American League matchups are now set: the Twins have announced Johan Santana as their game 1 starter (hooray!) in Yankee stadium and Tim Hudson gets the nod at home in their opener against the Sox. I'm not sure whether Houston or Chicago should be favoured to take the Central: both are at home against sub-.500 teams (Milwaukee and Pittsburgh). I'm half-rooting for the Astros to make it so that they can take revenge on the Braves and win their first ever post-season series (yes kiddies, it is possible to have a more miserable history than the Red Sox have). Of course if they are swept by Atlanta it will only add to the ignominy.

NL Central

Team	Wins	Losses	Remaining	Yesterday	Schedule	Elim
Chicago	86	73	3	Cin 7-9	pit 3	__
Houston	86	73	3	Mil 6-1	mil 3	__
St. Louis	83	76	3	idle	@arz 3	1

Yesterday I wrote that the Cubs-Reds game was a gimme for the Cubs. After all, Carlos Zambrano faced Todd Van Poppel and had to contend with this lineup: Ryan Freel, Ray Olmedo, D'Angelo Jimenez, Sean Casey, Russ Branyan, Wily Mo Pena, Dernell Stenson, Jason LaRue, and the pitcher. Well, baseball is nothing if not unpredictable: the Reds held off a late charge to beat Chicago 9-7. If the Cubs don't qualify for the post-season, their fans might point to this game as the one that should have been a W. Houston took care of business by beating the Brewers with relative ease. Going into the final weekend, a 3-way tie for the NL Central is still a possibility. The Cubs and Astros would have to lose all their games and Saint Louis would have to sweep in Arizona. My crude estimation tells me that the odds of that happening are about 1 in 2200.

I watched a lot of the Florida-Philadelphia series on MLB.TV and I was thoroughly impressed with the Marlins. I detest the owner of the team, but I love the old-school Jack McKeon. In my experience, it's rare for such an inexperienced club to play fundamentally sound baseball in the pressure of the pennant race. Apart from a bullpen meltdown in the 8th inning of the middle game, Florida looked very comfortable in their home ballpark. The Marlins were headed nowhere until McKeon was hired mid-season: I think the choice for NL manager of the year is as clear.

When I watch Juan Encarnacion play, I'm reminded a bit of the young Sammy Sosa: a very aggressive hitter who shows more than occasional brilliance, but doesn't possess the discipline or the consistency to be an all-star caliber player. Juan Encarnacion and Jeff Conine killed the Phils in this series. Tonight, Encarnacion broke open a 1-1 tie with a 3-run shot. Conine iced it when he poked a bases loaded, 2-out opposite field single to put the Marlins up 8-2. It's a shame the Marlins weren't able to celebrate the sweep and their second ever playoff berth at the same moment.

What must Larry Bowa be thinking right now? Has he done enough this year to keep his job? Or does being swept by their wildcard rivals mean that he's history?

Hideo Nomo pitched his heart out in San Diego, but the Dodgers found themselves down 1-0 and, this being the Dodgers offence, that was a concern. They did manage to load the bases with one out in the 6th off Padres ace Brian Lawrence. Jeromy Burnitz sent a screamer down the first base line that looked like it would clear the bases. Phil Nevin had a different idea: he snared the hot shot on one bounce, got up and threw a bullet home for the force out on LoDuca. It was as good a play as I've ever seen a first baseman make, and it was the turning point in a big game for the Dodgers. The next batter sent a sharp grounder up the middle that Lawrence speared and converted into the final out.

When Hideo Nomo struggled in the 8th, a 3-1 lead would have meant an early appearance by the Dodgers bullpen and most likely Eric Gagne at some point. Instead, down by a run, Nomo was allowed to work out his troubles. He loaded the bases and allowed a run-scoring single without recording an out before he was removed. An out later, Guillermo Mota gave up a flare into left-centre to promising rookie Khalil Greene, which cleared the bases after Burnitz' throwing error. The Dodgers' season was over.

Any drama that was left in the AL wildcard chase was snuffed out in short order. Boston put up a lot of crooked numbers in the first 4 innings, cruising to a 14-3 wildcard-clinching win. The AL batting title looks like it's coming down to two Red Sox: Manny Ramirez and Bill Mueller. Mueller leads Manny .327 to .324; Derek Jeter, Magglio Ordonez and Vernon Wells have fallen off the pace.

All of the fab four were idle last night

IF the season had ended last night ...

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