Cy Halladay? Baker, Griffin Offer Thoughts

Tuesday, September 23 2003 @ 10:43 AM EDT

Contributed by: Mick Doherty

Returning from the flooded plains of Corpus Christi to the silicon prairie that is Dallas, it's time to get back to baseball, Toronto-style with the Star's baseball stars.

Eighth in a 10-part series

One of the astonishing things about online communities -- whatever they may be called -- is something a former boss of mine liked to call "synergy." Note that I no longer work there and also avoid workplaces that use terms like "out of the box" and, ironically given my profession, "let's take it offline."

So, yes, Mr. Burley, "a lot of people will be doing [it] this week... talking about the Cy Young Award candidates in both leagues," that is. Seems like we've been up to that here on Batter's Box for, oh, the whole season.

After all, doesn't the Blue Jays' entire 2003 campaign have the potential to be summarized by the single phrase, Roy Halladay, Cy Young Award winner?

Sure it does. And while the argument has raged back and forth here on Da Box, Toronto Star baseball guys Richard Griffin and Geoff Baker weighed in on the topic themselves recently.

Just keep in mind ... a lot can happen between "recently" and "ballots are due."

***


Would you believe the argument dates back to March 11?

That's the day that the erstwhile Coach started a thread called Cy's the Limit in which he noted somewhat incredulously that for that day, anyway, "Richard Griffin has only nice things to say about Roy Halladay."

Regardless of those nice things, when Batter's Box originally sat down (virtually speaking) with Griffin and Toronto Star cohort Geoff Baker a couple of weeks ago, the columnist was pretty blunt in his opinion that Halladay would not take home the 2003 American League Cy Young Award.

"I've had a vote on the A.L. Cy Young the last four years," said Griffin. "I would love for it to be Doc."

But while Griffin noted that he might have "trouble voting for [former Jay Esteban] Loaiza," personally speaking, he concluded -- hang on to your Batters Box Helmets, roto geeks and SABR rattlers -- "… if the numbers say so …"

But as noted above, the thing about numbers is that they can change quite a bit in the space of two or three weeks.

Or in spring training, in a matter of two or three hours. In fact, within half a March day of Coach's original posting, another Batter's Box regular -- who shall remain nameless here -- posted an extremely well-thought-out, deeply developed and brilliantly written argument entitled Why Roy Halladay Won't Win the 2003 Cy Young Award.

Of course, the door was left open just the tiniest crack for a Halladay trophy, and Coach charged through, claiming that over 36 starts, "With just average luck and support this season, I figure he'll be 22-7 or thereabouts." And almost eerily, heading into start #36, the man Griffin referred to as "Doc" -- in spite of recent umpire antics -- sported a mark of 21-7. Been channeling Dionne Warwick, Coach?

So through the attention-grabbing winning streak, a brief flirtation with contention, a mercurial MVP effort first by Carlos Delgado and now, more quietly, by Vernon Wells, the question has remained ... "Roy Halladay, Cy Young Award winner?"

It's a question that kept Boxers throwing jabs through late July when Jonny German's terrific analysis lit the flame anew, and then, of course, this week's "Cy Guys" post points toward the homestretch.

Back when Da Box originally asked Baker about Halladay's candidacy, he echoed Griffin's reluctance and said, "I really hate to say it, but Esteban Loaiza will win. He will be pitching in meaningful games throughout September and his ERA lead over Halladay is so big that only a complete collapse would bring them close."

In fact, said Baker at the time, "All Loaiza has to do, in my mind, is win 20 games and he's got it. Halladay has to pitch his remaining starts the way he did against [the Yankees on September 1] to have a shot."

But ... hang on a moment, said Baker just this week. "Obviously things have changed in the weeks since we [originally] answered the questions." Referring back to his original caveat, Baker said, "Halladay has pitched just like he did against the Yankees earlier in the month and, in my mind, has done enough to overtake Loaiza and win."

In fact, said Baker, "I think there was a real anti-Loaiza movement brewing among some voters anyway and he would have had to outdistance Halladay by at least a half-run of ERA to have a chance." The former Jay's ERA lead over Halladay is now just about a third of a run and could conceivably shrink still further.

"I have to admit, I never envisioned [Halladay] being this good in September," said Baker. "And Loaiza, well, has collapsed. With Halladay so far ahead in other categories like innings pitched and complete games, I think he is a lock," Baker concluded.

Anti-Loaiza movement?

Halladay a lock?

Well, wait a moment.

Loaiza is still going to get plenty of votes -- sure, you can claim he had a real "1976 Randy Jones" season -- the Padre lefty started the All-Star Game with a 16-3 record then collapsed to finish 6-11 in the second half. Oh by the way ... Jones' 22-14 overall mark earned the hardware that season.

Mike Mussina is getting some mention here on Da Box, but nary a blogging would-be-voter has mentioned veteran southpaw Andy Pettitte, who like Jamie Moyer, quietly won his 20th game of the year this week. And 20-game winners on big-market (don't kid yourself, Seattle -- with that ownership, you're big market) playoff teams will get plenty of votes.

Tim Hudson has probably been the "best" pitcher in the American League, but that of course has rarely correlated perfectly with award-winners. But haven't voters gotten used to voting for the big winner with the emerald "A" on his chest, whether the name across the back be Mulder or Zito ... or Hudson?

And Pedro Martinez is … well, he's Pedro Martinez.

It really comes down to what Spicol wrote back on July 31: "I'm more interested in trying to get into the minds of voters to figure out who will win and voters aren't the most objective bunch."

Yes ... yes, that's the key point right there.

A couple of weeks ago, Griffin -- who has a vote -- was ready to cast it for Loaiza. Just this week, Baker was waffling on his concession to the former Jay and indicated the hometown ace was now a "lock."

There are similar arguments being made by newspaper columnists, and by beat writers (and on blogs) based in Seattle ... and Boston ... and New York ... and Oakland.

And yes, right here in Toronto. Where ultimately, finally, a split vote among several big-name candidates is precisely -- to coin a phrase -- "Why Roy Halladay Won't Win the 2003 Cy Young Award."

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