This has been an excellent series. Doc tossed a masterpiece, Kelvim battled, the bullpen came through and there have been plenty of timely hits, especially from Box favourite Josh Phelps. The team has climbed back to .500, with a chance to clinch their season series with the AL's finest.
Tonight's starters underline the difference in philosophy between the Yankees and the Jays. Jose Contreras, all tools and reputation, hasn't produced anything near $8 million in results. Cory Lidle, "rented" for $5 million as a one-year stopgap, has also disappointed, but Toronto isn't on the hook for three more years and another $24 million.
The Cuban righty, who has battled inconsistency and shoulder woes, made five relief appearances against the Jays earlier this year, allowing six earned runs in nine innings, walking six and striking out twelve. He was brilliant against the Orioles in his first start off the DL, only to be rocked by the Red Sox in his latest for seven runs in three innings.
Once again, Reed Johnson and Kevin Cash sit in favour of Catalanotto and Myers. Chris Woodward's at short, despite 3 K in 4 AB vs. Contreras; Eric Hinske (2-for-2) moves up to second in the order.
There are 24 games left for the 2003 Blue Jays. If they split with the Yankees (tonight and Monday's makeup game in New York) and take two of three in their remaining meetings with the Tigers, Orioles and Indians, that's 11 more wins. Plus they have seven more with Tampa, so depending on whether the D-Rays have their number, or Toronto is overdue for some good luck, they could win three, maybe six. In other words, Carlos Tosca's 85-win preseason goal is still attainable, but they need to go 16-8 down the stretch. 82 or 83 victories seems more likely, with a 13-11 or 14-10 finish.
One reason the Jays will fall short of my 89-win projection is Cory Lidle. There were many reasons to expect better than 12-11, 6.08 from him in a play-for-pay year. He's 2-1, 5.68 against the Bombers this season and 6-2, 3.43 for his career, off an encouraging start in Cleveland.
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