It's the end of summer. The Jays are out of contention. We all grow relentlessly older. Blah. Here's my August report card for the Jays.
Offense
At this point, the Jays are no longer one of the best hitting teams in the league. In August, they scored 133 runs, or 4.75 runs a game. If they had scored at this rate all year, the Jays would have 646 runs, or roughly the same number as Baltimore and Oakland, teams not exactly known for their firepower. If this keeps up, the Jays will need to upgrade at several positions in order to contend.
Numbers shown are AVG/OBP/SLG for August (which I got from the ESPN stats page).
Dave Berg
.188 .297 .313
Is now at the bottom of the infield heap, behind Bordick, Woodward, and Hudson. Started once in the outfield, which was a lineup decision that can generously be described as quixotic. If the Jays decide to turn Woodward into a utility player, or Bordick stays on another year, Berg's job could be in jeopardy. As Craig Grebeck and Jeff Frye (and Howie Clark) will tell you, hard-working middle infielders are not exactly scarce commodities.
Grade: D-
Mike Bordick
.333 .390 .400
If he is planning on retiring after this season, he seems determined to go out on top. Plays three defensive positions well, and made a significant offensive contribution. Is given credit for teaching the other infielders how to play better defense; this may seem like damning with faint praise, but recall that the infield was awful defensively in April.
Grade: A
Kevin Cash
.154 .190 .179
I think I've figured out what is happening here: Cash has the Good Face. He looks like a good player, behaves like a good player (I don't mean that in a negative sense), and throws like a good player (though he hasn't quite read all the instructions in his missile launcher handbook). Is he a good player? So far, it doesn't look like it, as he is making oodles of rookie mistakes: he waves futilely at breaking pitches and regularly flings the ball away on defense. It's too bad he didn't hit that fourth-deck grand slam - if that ball had stayed fair, he'd have bought himself an extra few months of grace. Right now, it looks like Guillermo Quiroz is going to be the catcher of the future, and Cash is going to become the next Huckaby (arm of steel, bat of balsa).
Grade: F
Frank Catalanotto
.412 .508 .725
Has ludicrously awful platoon splits: he's batting .185/.250/.308 against lefties this year. Cleverly, the Jays have decided to play him only against right-handed pitching, and therefore he hit like a maniac this month. Better still, he's drawing walks. The only question now is whether he will demand a chance to play full-time - recall that he signed with Toronto precisely because he would get a chance to play regularly. Will have a career regardless of what happens, as there are more right-handed pitchers out there than lefties.
Grade: only an A, because of limited playing time
Carlos Delgado
.284 .468 .477
In J.P.'s interview on the Batter's Box, he hinted that Carlos is playing hurt, which may be why his power numbers are falling off. American League pitchers have decided, once again, that giving Delgado anything good to hit is an extremely bad idea: he drew 28 walks in August, which is a rate of one walk a game. Normally, only Barry Bonds draws walks at that pace. Despite dropping off a bit during the summer, Delgado leads the American League in on-base percentage at .435, which is a full fourteen points better than his nearest rival, and is second in the league in slugging, trailing only A-Rod. Unfortunately, I fear that injuries and frightened pitchers will drive Carlos's numbers down, so he won't win the MVP. This is a crying shame.
Grade: A+
Eric Hinske
.237 .318 .443
Is about as good a hitter as you can be when you're batting only .235 for the year: he draws lots of walks, and over half his hits are for extra bases. Seems to be trying as hard as possible to overcome his limitations, both on the field and at the plate: he's built like a tank, not like a third baseman, and eventually will have to accept the inevitable and become a 1B/DH type. May need to relax a bit out there: every time he pops up with men on base, he slams his bat down in frustration. Eventually will turn some of those doubles into home runs, and his average will go up when he has a hot streak. I'm still not worried about him.
Grade: C+
Orlando Hudson
.241 .282 .329
I wonder whether he's playing hurt too: he didn't steal any bases or hit any triples this month, which suggests that he is battling some minor owies. Has an extreme platoon split: has an OPS of .431 against lefties, but .799 versus righties. This would be enough to condemn switch-hitting, except that (if I recall correctly) the O-Dog is a natural right-handed hitter, and is doing better while hitting left-handed. Go figure. Still playing good defense, but right now is in danger of following Homer Bush's career path. You've probably noticed that Homer isn't here any more.
Grade: D-
Reed Johnson
.218 .304 .297
As always, enjoyable to watch, as he hustles conspicuously. But he's not hitting; my guess is that American League pitchers have found his weak spots, as his 22 strikeouts led the team this month. It's hard for me to say bad things about someone who has actually posted to the Batter's Box, but he's going to have to hit better than this in order to stick around. Rob Faulds' favourite stat: the Jays have not yet lost a game in which Johnson has scored two or more runs.
Grade: D-
Bobby Kielty
.164 .325 .284
What odd numbers. Kielty isn't hitting at all, but he's drawing lots of walks: his 15 free passes is second on the team to Delgado, and projects out to nearly 100 walks a year over fulltime play. I'm not sure what's happening. Is he in a slump? Is he covering up a weakness by trying to zone down? Is he hurt? I'd have more of an answer to this question if I had a clearer idea of what kind of a hitter he is - I've watched him for a while, and yet I have no memory of him at the plate. He doesn't do anything particularly well or particularly badly. If he were a flavour of ice cream, he'd be vanilla.
Grade: D+
Greg Myers
.190 .238 .224
The clock has struck midnight. The glittering gold carriage has turned back into a pumpkin, the team of horses has turned back into rats, and Cinderella's beautiful prom dress is once again rags. It's been a heck of a ride, but you can see why the Jays are giving Kevin Cash lots of playing time. It's too small a sample size to draw conclusions, but Crash seems to be following Darrin Fletcher's career path. Opposing base stealers were successful in 18 of 22 attempts this month.
Grade: F, sadly
Josh Phelps
.333 .425 .587
I think I know what is happening: the Jays are spotting Phelps carefully in order to put him in situations where he will succeed. Against certain pitchers, Joshua (as Jerry Howarth refers to him) flails away helplessly with that long swing of his; he still strikes out in one-third of his at-bats. But when he's not striking out, he's whacking the cover off the ball, and he's starting to draw more walks. Given that this is his first full year in the majors, he's doing very well indeed. I'm not sure I want to climb aboard the Free Josh Phelps! bandwagon, but I'm now on the Respect Josh Phelps! motor-scooter.
Grade: A
Vernon Wells
.345 .391 .471
I seem to recall reading an article that claimed that V-Dub could become as good as Garret Anderson someday. The writer didn't notice that Wells is already better than Anderson: his offensive numbers are almost an exact duplicate of Anderson's, and he's a better defender. Right now, he's leading the league in total bases. And he's still getting better and better. If he keeps this up, the 5-year contract he signed at the start of this year will be the best bargain in baseball. Heck, it already is.
Grade: A+
Tom Wilson
.188 .291 .250
The other half of Frankencatcher isn't doing much better. He's still patient at the plate, but he's not hitting his pitches when he gets them. His major league career now depends entirely on Kevin Cash's. Someday, that batting stance is going to cost him: eventually, somebody's going to accidentally throw a fastball right into his lap. Ow.
Grade: D-
Chris Woodward
.300 .318 .450
Is starting to flail away at everything; he drew only one walk in August, but his average went up. Some of this may not be his fault - now that his three-homer game is a distant memory, pitchers aren't exactly afraid of him at the plate. You can't draw walks unless pitchers throw you four pitches out of the strike zone. My view of him is the same as last month: he has to decide whether he wants to be a utility player on a contending team, or the starting shortstop for the Detroit Tigers. (If they can play Kevin Witt fulltime, they'll certainly be willing to give Woodward a starting job.)
Grade: C+
Pitching
The good news: the bullpen was better this month (though there was nowhere to go but up). The bad news: most of the starting pitching sucked. The team ERA for the month was 5.11, and Jays pitchers gave up 32 home runs. The good news: the club's K/W ratio for the month was exactly 2/1 (80 walks, 160 strikeouts). They're throwing the ball over the plate more often, which is a step in the right direction: a home run loses a game more quickly than an assortment of walks and dribblers. It's less painful to be executed by a single swift chop to the neck than by a series of slow-bleeding cuts.
Juan Acevedo
2 1/3 IP, 3 H, 2 BB, 1 SO, 0.00 ERA
In his final 2 1/3 innings of work, Acevedo allowed three hits, two walks, one loss - and no earned runs. He'd make a useful minor-league pickup for somebody: he throws hard, and sometimes those guys can find the range. Usually, though, they don't.
Grade: Gone
Brian Bowles
4 IP, 5 H, 1 BB, 1 SO, 2.25 ERA
The human Whack-A-Mole: pops up periodically, gets beaten about the head and shoulders, then disappears again. Will likely remain up for the rest of the year, thus allowing Carlos Tosca to do what he seems to enjoy doing most, which is change pitchers. Four innings is too small a sample size to judge, but I'd like to see more than one strikeout every four innings, please.
Grade: C
Kelvim Escobar
42.2 IP, 39 H, 13 BB, 30 SO, 4.22 ERA
So, where will Kelvim wind up in 2004? It almost certainly won't be here: somebody's going to offer him megabucks over three years, and that's more than the Jays can, or should, pay. The perfect place would be somewhere like St. Louis, where the ballpark is big, the offense is functional, and the fans are supportive. Kelvim needs a little love in order to thrive; as I say every month, he would get killed in the Bronx. I think Texas is going to throw the most money at him, however. K/IP down a bit this month, but walks are still down. Do the Jays get one draft pick or two for him when they offer him arbitration?
Grade: B+
Roy Halladay
40.0 IP, 53 H, 4 BB, 35 SO, 5.40 ERA
The good news is that his ratios are still great: his K/IP, BB/IP and K/BB are all outstanding. (Boy, that sounds geeky. If Richard Griffin is reading this, chances are he just threw his keyboard across the room.) The Doc just isn't locating his pitches quite as well, and he's getting hit. As long as he's healthy, he should find the range soon - but, alas, not soon enough to give him a chance to win the Cy. (Which will now go to L-L-L... no, I can't say it. I just can't.)
Grade: C
Mark Hendrickson
33.2 IP, 39 H, 7 BB, 16 SO, 5.08 ERA
I have a quick rule of thumb that I use to determine whether a pitcher is toast: take his innings pitched, divide by two, and compare the result with his strikeouts. If he doesn't strike out at least one batter every other inning, he's history. (We'll call this the Michalak Line.) Lurch has fallen below the line this month: 16 K in 33.2 IP just isn't good enough. Still, you've got to give him credit for persistence: he's held his spot in the rotation all year. Will keep his spot until one of Arnold, McGowan or Bush is ready, which might not be for awhile. Since Lurch is a lefty, there will be several teams who will want him; when the Jays next visit Detroit, he might want to take a little tour of the city, as it may become home soon.
Grade: D+
Jason Kershner
17 IP, 14 H, 5 BB, 13 SO, 4.24 ERA
Stats came back down to earth a bit after a great July, but he was still a very useful pitcher, as he can go more than one inning. What's more: if he sticks around, we'll never see Doug Creek ever again.
Grade: B
Cory Lidle
16 IP, 22 H, 6 BB, 6 SO, 8.44 ERA
So much for that strong second-half we'd been hoping for. I think he's still hurt: 6 K in 16 IP is not exactly overpowering. One year ago, he looked like he was about to become a very wealthy man: now, he'll have to accept a one-year deal from somebody. Somehow, I don't think it will be with the Jays: for some reason, I get the impression that he's not very happy here.
Grade: F
Aquilino Lopez
6.1 IP, 6 H, 2 BB, 6 SO, 2.84 ERA
Am I the only one who didn't notice that Lopez had five saves this month? The bullpen may finally be taking shape: Politte for the eighth, Lopez for the ninth, Miller as the spot lefty, Kershner to fill in the gaps, and everybody else to mop up when the starters implode. Has any Rule V draftee ever had a better season in his Rule V year?
Grade: A-
Trever Miller
5.2 IP, 7 H, 5 BB, 3 SO, 4.76 ERA
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Grade: C-
Cliff Politte
8 2/3 IP, 7 H, 1 BB, 8 SO, 2.08 ERA
For the most part, he's been kept out of the closer's spot. As a consequence, he's gone back to being the Politte we remember from last year. Seemingly, he was born to pitch the eighth inning. These guys are useful, as the eighth inning is pretty important. All the Jays need is a Henke to go with Politte's impersonation of Ward. Only had one hold all month.
Grade: A-
Dan Reichert
8 IP, 14 H, 2 BB, 6 SO, 6.75 ERA
The good news: he throws strikes. The bad news: opposing batters hit them. One of six different pitchers to collect at least one hold in August. (Four Jays picked up at least one save.) I'd rather see him out there than Tam or Sturtze; that's not exactly fulsome praise, but that's the best he deserves for now.
Grade: F
Scott Service
1.1 IP, 2 H, 1 BB, 2 SO, 0.00 ERA
Actually picked up holds in his last two appearances in a Toronto uniform. Someone's got to redefine the hold stat, as this is silly.
Grade: Gone
Tanyon Sturtze
14 IP, 16 H, 13 BB, 10 SO, 5.79 ERA
Of course, it's possible to be well above the Michalak Line and still suck. He averaged over two baserunners an inning, and this was a relatively good month for Sturtze. I think I've figured out why he's still here: he can go for several innings an outing, so he's useful to have around in case of extra innings. It's better to throw Tanyon out there and concede a game than to risk injuring tired pitchers by throwing them in there when they're worn out. It looks like he'll make it through the entire year, which I never would have guessed would happen. Does he have incriminating photographs of J.P. Ricciardi hidden away in his desk drawer?
Grade: F
Corey Thurman
9 IP, 16 H, 7 BB, 5 SO, 10.00 ERA
Pitched great in his first outing, and extremely not great in his next two. I assume that he can't yet handle the pressure of starting regularly in the majors. I can't see any other reason to keep sending Lurch and Lidle out there instead of this guy. At some point, the Jays will have to find out whether the Thurmanator is going to be in their plans for the future, and now is as good a time as any to do it - unless they have already decided, which is quite possible.
Grade: F
Josh Towers
27.2 IP, 30 H, 4 BB, 12 SO, 5.53 ERA
Had one great outing, and then was beaten up severely a few times. He's below the Michalak Line too: 12 K in 27.2 innings. I find that I can't trust ex-Orioles. Throws strikes, so he's not totally useless.
Grade: D-
Pete Walker
8.1 IP, 5 H, 7 BB, 6 SO, 3.24 ERA
Wilder than a frosh week party, but was his usual just-above-replacement-level self. That's not a knock on P-Walk: marginal competence is a vast improvement over what we've seen in these parts lately. (Actually, I'm told that frosh don't drink heavily any more. When I was in university, they used to send the frosh bar-hopping; now, they all play dodge ball. I suppose they'll all live to be 95. But I digress.)
Grade: B-
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