Pulaski Round-Up, part 1

Wednesday, August 27 2003 @ 09:01 AM EDT

The Advanced Rookie-level Pulaski Blue Jays finished their Appalachian League campaign recently, and I've taken the opportunity to import individual stats for every player in the league into one spreadsheet. Pulaski compiled the third best record in the league at 38-29 (.567). I haven't checked, but I think that with Auburn possessing one of the best records in minor league baseball (52-15, .776), the Blue Jays farm system will sport the best short-season winning percentage this year. That is a testament to the quality of the last two drafts, which provided the majority of the players for the two squads.

After getting all the data into one worksheet and cleaning it up a bit, I was able to calculate league norms for the component batting stats that are at the heart of my approach to evaluating the hitting skills of prospects (see earlier article on Simon Pond for more details). The following are 2003 Appalachian League norms:

Power = .114;
Walks = .088;
Strikeouts = .201;
Ball in Play Average = .316

I selected all batters who had at least 100 plate appearances for further analysis - there were 116 batters on 10 teams, including 13 P-Jays. I compared each player's component measures to the league norm and determined the percentage above or below average for each component. The average age (as of July 1, 2003) for these regulars was almost exactly 21 - not surprising, since the league is heavily populated by second tier college draft picks (the more advanced ones usually end up in short season A) as well as some second-year Latin and drafted-out-of-high-school players.

I calculated an overall batting rating by combining the component stats so that power is weighted at 35%, the strikeout rate at 25%, the walk rate at 20% and bip average at 20%. This rating system likes guys with power, but otherwise matches up fairly well with super OPS (1.7*OBP + SLG) - there was an 0.95 correlation between the two measures with the main difference being the ranking of high power/high strikeout guys.

Here are the Appalachian League's top 10 regulars by overall component rating:

Table notes: the component rating is designed so that a league average performer scores 0; P/K is the ratio of power to strikeout rate, in this case the percentage above or below league average; $OPS is 1.7*OPS + SLG.

The top 4 hitters are definitely old for this level. They face an uphill battle to become even fringe prospects because of their late start. Joseph Wolfe, Pulaski's #2 catcher, was the second best hitter in the league by both super OPS and the component rating system, but he was also 19 months older than the average Appalachian regular.

The next top 10 list presents similar information, but excludes players who were older than 21.00.

Three Blue Jays prospects make the list; let's take a closer look at the component stats of these players.

Nick Thomas is an interesting case. He was drafted last year out of Sacramento CC in the 38th round as a pitcher. He didn't sign in time to play in 2002, so he debuted professionally with Pulaski.

His stats don't look fancy at first blush - .290 AVG/.389 OBP/.489 SLG - but he amassed an extra-base hit every 8.45 ABs, good for a power rating of .204 against a league average of .114 (79% above average). He walked in 13.2% of his opportunities, which was 50% above average. His strikeout rate was a minor weakness - 21.3% strikeouts per opportunity - 6% below average. His broad batting skills added up to the 5th best overall component ranking in the Appalachian League (100+ PA).

Robinzon Diaz has been mentioned in some of the Batter's Box minor league reports. Because of his age and position, he should be considered the best position prospect at Pulaski.

He played last year in Medicine Hat (Pioneer League, similar level of difficulty) in 2002 and improved his power numbers considerably this year. The Dominican catcher doesn't walk much right now, but he was one of the best contact hitters in the league (7.1% K rate, 2nd best in the league to teammate Jayce Tingler). He's a line drive hitter (.392 bip average, 9th best in the league) with decent power (22% above average). He played 33 games at catcher and made 8 errors (31 games, 7 errors in 2002), but that could be nothing more than temporary wildness on stolen base attempts.

Luke Hetherington was drafted in 2001 in the 9th round out of Kentwood HS in Covington, Washington. He was overmatched in the Pioneer League that year, hitting .207 AVG/.299 OBP/.305 SLG in 51 games that year. He was out of action in 2002.

Hetherington shares his skill-set with John-Ford Griffin, pitched lower. He hits line-drives, has decent power, walks above average, but strikes out a bit too much for comfort. It's much too early to tell if he'll even get to where Griffin is now, much less to the majors.

These three youngsters as well as a few of the older Pulaski Blue Jays who performed well, Wolfe, Esposito, Tingler and Acey among them, will be worth keeping an eye on.

If I were visited by a person from the future and told that one regular in the Appalachian League in 2003 would become an impact player at the major league level one day, I would put my money on the St. Louis Cardinals first rounder in 2003, Daric Barton.

A catching prospect, Barton was chosen 28th overall and became the youngest regular in the Appalachian league before his 18th birthday. He was 24% and 18% above average in the power and line drive departments respectively this year. His strikeout rate was only a little below average and he drew tons of walks, ranking 3rd in the league among regulars.

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