Coach was kind enough to let me archive my Rich Harden post for ESPN.com, so here it is. Denizens of Da Box can ignore this. ESPN.com readers may plow forward at their discretion.
The Harden report
I'll do my very best to make my two cents different from the $5 million already spent on the most anticipated pitching prospect since Mark Prior. Before you consider picking up Harden in any league, you should ask the question, "Is he ready"? Clearly the A's ownership think he is ready; they have been pushing for this move, not Ken Macha, who two weeks ago did not want it. Steve Schott is a rotten owner; let's hope he's not putting Macha in the position of using a player he doesn't want to. Now let's do what Schott probably hasn't done: look at the numbers. In 88 2/3 AAA innings (I'll forget the 13 perfect AA frames), Harden has allowed 72 hits and 35 walks to go along with 92 strikeouts. The Ks are nice, as are the hits, but the walk rate, while not hideous, is a concern. Indeed, if you saw the futures game on ESPN2, you would have seen that, in addition to having a sublime pitching motion, Harden has occasional command problems.
This is not unusual in young pitchers, so it's nothing to worry about long-term. However, a pennant race is not the best time to work on command issues; these are best resolved in the minors, as I've indicated before. Consequently, Harden will go through some very rough stretches when he discovers that big-league hitters know the strike zone better than AAA hitters do. He will also, of course, go through unhittable stretches, because he tops out at anywhere from 96-98 MPH and possesses a sharp-breaking, if raw, curve. But his AAA stats are not jaw-dropping, and, while Harden must be called up at some point, I wish he had at least one AAA start when he struck out 15, or threw a one-hit shutout, or something. I'd feel better in that event, because right now I don't think he's ready.
A Prior connection?
Nearly every e-mail I've received about Harden mentions Prior. Because of their hype and their ages -- Prior was also 21 when he got called up -- I see the similarities, but I also see significant differences. First of all, for two of his three college years Prior played at USC, which is either the minor-league equivalent to high-A ball or low-AA ball (if there was such a thing). And Prior absolutely destroyed Pac-10 pitching in his junior year, striking out 189 hitters in 131 innings while walking only 17. USC is also a major Division I college, so every series counted. Prior capped off his year by striking out 13 hitters in seven innings in winning his only start in the 2001 College World Series -- an event closer to the pressure of the majors than a July game in sweltering Fresno.
Then, as we know, Prior went second overall in the 2001 draft after Joe Mauer, because the Twins couldn't afford Prior, who was the consensus best player in the draft, if not the best college pitching prospect of all time. Harden, meantime, was drafted out of Central Arizona JC in the 17th round of the 2000 draft. In his two minor-league seasons before this one, Harden struck 287 in 210 innings -- but he also walked 113 to go along with 163 hits allowed. Prior, who needed less than a year of minor-league ball, whiffed 79 in 51 innings, while allowing 39 hits and 18 walks, in nine starts at AA and AAA in 2002 (his E.R.A. was 2.29). Prior's control, while not perfect, was considerably better than Harden's has been so far, and his K rate is even higher than Harden's high rate.
In May 2002, after much speculation, Prior made his ML debut, and he went on to make 18 more starts, finishing the season with a 3.32 E.R.A. while striking out 147, allowing 98 hits and walking 38 in 116 2/3 innings. So, not surprisingly, the E.R.A. was higher and the K rate dropped (but was still very high), but, oddly, his control improved once he reached the Show. This could be because Prior faced DHs in the minors but not, of course, in the majors -- a luxury Harden will not enjoy. (Nor will he face the A's, one of the worst-hitting teams in the league, a factor that must be considered.) By any measure, Prior was the superior pitcher in college and in the minors. Harden's ceiling is very high, but his chances for immediate success in the majors aren't what Prior's were last season.
Get to the point!
Assuming Harden gets around 14 starts, here's what I expect: 84 innings (the A's will baby him and he will most likely rack up high pitch counts), 83 hits, 44 walks, 70 strikeouts, an E.R.A. over 4.00. Wins, as Tim Hudson will attest, are capricious; I won't project them. So ... I would not use the high waiver pick in AL-only leagues; Harden's more likely to damage your E.R.A. and ratio numbers than give you six points in those categories. In mixed leagues I might risk it, because I don't see anyone coming up and because Harden has considerable trade value due to his hype. There is, of course, a chance he'll have the same impact as Prior -- or Dontrelle Willis -- but don't count it, because, as I've said ad nauseum, rookie pitchers will break your heart far more often than not. -- JG out
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