The Quarter Pole: The Offence
Friday, May 16 2003 @ 07:44 AM EDT
Contributed by: robertdudek
The Blue Jays hitters got off to a pretty good start against some stingy pitching staffs, so it was expected that their solid offensive production would continue against weaker opposition. That, indeed, has happened: the Jays are now third in the AL in runs per game at 5.71, trailing the Red Sox (6.13) and the Yankees (6.08), but solidly ahead of the homerun-happy Rangers (5.38).
THE TEAM:
The 2003 Blue Jays' offence has at least four distinguishing characteristics, reflected by the following stats: 1) The club is on pace for 0 sacrifice hits this season; 2) it leads the AL in strikeouts per opportunity at 18.5% (followed by Detroit and Texas at 17.9 and 17.8% respectively); 3) it leads the AL in doubles and extra-base hits, a nose ahead of the BoSox on both counts; and 4) it has, by far, the highest batting average on balls in the field of play - at .325.
In other news, the team is 4th in Walks per Opportunity at 8.5 percent, but well back of the top two in the league (the Yankees and the Mariners in a virtual tie at 10.4%). Only one team, the Oakland A's, have attempted to steal a base less frequently than the Jays. Although a relatively young offensive team, the Jays sit in 6th in pitches per plate appearance at 3.80 (the Athletics lead at 3.96).
THE STARTERS:
Let's look at how individual hitters have faired in the last 21 games as compared to the first 20. I list the starters in descending order of year-to-date Extrapolated Runs (XR - a linear weights measure of contribution to runs).
Carlos Delgado 36.6 XR (21.0 XR per 100 PA)
gms PA pit/PA BIPavg Krate Wrate Power XR /100PA
1-20: 88 4.0 .404 .235 .153 .250 17.7 20.1
21-41: 86 4.2 .280 .173 .101 .386 18.9 22.0
Carlos has been putting the ball in play much more often (cutting down on walks and strikeouts) but his success on balls that stay in the yard has dropped back to normal levels. Overall, he has maintained his patient approach and his production.
Vernon Wells 27.7 XR (14.5 per 100 PA)
gms PA pit/PA BIPavg Krate Wrate Power XR /100PA
1-20: 93 3.5 .273 .183 .065 .229 11.3 12.1
21-41: 98 3.2 .247 .082 .052 .205 16.4 16.8
Vernon has been hitting the ball more consistently of late. He still has a ridiculously low ball in play average (he's the only Jay currently below .289 - the league average) for someone who hits the ball as hard as he does. He's attacking the ball early in the count and striking out a lot less. After GIDP'ing 6 times in the first 20 games, Vernon has only done it twice in the next 21 - a more respectable rate.
Shannon Stewart 26.6 XR (13.2 per 100 PA)
gms PA pit/PA BIPavg Krate Wrate Power XR /100PA
1-20: 100 3.6 .333 .081 .092 .099 14.2 14.2
21-41: 102 3.7 .298 .089 .069 .141 12.4 12.2
Because he is difficult to strikeout, Shannon seems to be best suited to batting leadoff rather than second or third (his propensity to put the ball in play could lead to many double plays if he had a high OBP guy batting in front of him). There never seems to be much fluctuation in Shannon's performance.
Frank Catalanotto 22.9 XR (14.8 per 100 PA)
gms PA pit/PA BIPavg Krate Wrate Power XR /100PA
1-20: 74 3.7 .351 .162 .041 .136 9.7 13.1
21-41: 80 3.9 .368 .075 .063 .130 13.2 16.5
The top three hitters in the lineup are the most difficult Jays to strikeout. The whiffers come up in the 4-6 slots, usually with lots of men on base. That is a good thing, because double plays are the quickest way to snuff out a big inning.
Facing lesser pitching staffs, Cat was able to dramatically improve his K/W ratio. Overall, he's put up a .350 BIP average, which is (believe it or not) 5th best on the team.
Josh Phelps 22.0 XR (13.4 per 100 PA)
gms PA pit/PA BIPavg Krate Wrate Power XR /100PA
1-20: 83 3.8 .304 .265 .114 .146 8.5 10.3
21-40: 81 3.4 .380 .247 .052 .264 13.5 16.7
Opposing pitchers seem to be going after Phelps more aggresively than earlier in the season. He's responded by trying to hit the ball earlier in the count; a .380 BIP average over the past 21 games is evidence that he's been fairly successful in that approach. After a slow start in the power department, Joshua is coming around. His mammoth total of 8 HBP's has propelled his OBP up to .360, good enough for 5th on the team.
Greg Myers 15.5 XR (18.4 per 100 PA)
gms PA pit/PA BIPavg Krate Wrate Power XR /100PA
1-20: 40 4.1 .348 .250 .125 .200 6.1 15.3
21-40: 44 4.0 .414 .159 .114 .281 9.4 21.3
The catching duties have been split down the middle and both halves of the tandem have wielded remarkably productive bats. Myers has been the 2nd most efficient hitter on the team in terms of XR per PA. His ability to take walks and hit line drives and homeruns has been the biggest Jays-related surprise of 2003 so far (okay, maybe 2nd biggest, next to Kelvim's regular implosions in April).
Eric Hinske 15.0 XR (9.7 per 100 PA)
gms PA pit/PA BIPavg Krate Wrate Power XR /100PA
1-20: 75 3.9 .356 .320 .067 .239 7.6 10.1
21-40: 80 4.2 .291 .203 .101 .164 7.4 9.3
He's been the least productive hitter on the club so far this year. His inabililty to make consistent contact was a concern in the early going, but he's struck out only 20.3% of the time during the last 21 games.
Orlando Hudson 14.9 XR (11.8 per 100 PA)
gms PA pit/PA BIPavg Krate Wrate Power XR /100PA
1-20: 66 3.5 .256 .258 .091 .116 4.6 6.9
21-40: 60 3.6 .362 .083 .100 .143 10.4 17.3
The much-maligned O-Dog has been characterized by some as "not a Ricciardi-type player". The numbers don't really support that notion. His walk rate is quite good for a second year player (and higher so far than the two youngsters that were signed to long-term contracts in spring). His power is more than satisfactory for a middle infielder.
Chris Woodward 13.6 XR (11.1 per 100 PA)
gms PA pit/PA BIPavg Krate Wrate Power XR /100PA
1-20: 62 4.0 .302 .161 .129 .136 8.2 13.2
21-40: 60 3.7 .289 .167 .083 .089 5.4 9.0
His year-to-date component numbers are very similar to Hudson's. Woody sees slightly more pitches at the plate, but otherwise they have been almost the same offensive player. On defense, Woodward was nearly as erratic as the O-Dog in the early going; both have settled down since.
Tom Wilson 12.8 XR (14.9 per 100 PA)
gms PA pit/PA BIPavg Krate Wrate Power XR /100PA
1-20: 42 4.4 .435 .310 .119 .292 6.8 16.2
21-40: 44 4.4 .292 .250 .140 .192 6.0 13.6
The other half of the dynamic duo. Together, Wilson and Myers have amassed 28.3 XR, a figure that would put them 2nd on the team if they were 1 person. Wilson goes into deep counts more often than anyone else on the team.
THE BENCH:
Small sample sizes preclude the drawing of firm conclusions. Overall, the Jays' bench has been remarkably productive. Berg has cooled off, but Bordick picked up the slack in games 21-40. Even Werth, who struck out in over 44% of his chances before being demoted, hit with enough power to contribute something to the offence.
Dave Berg 9.0 XR (16.1 per 100 PA)
gms PA pit/PA BIPavg Krate Wrate Power XR /100PA
1-20: 25 3.6 .333 .160 .040 .300 5.3 21.1
21-40: 31 3.5 .400 .161 .032 .040 3.7 12.0
Mike Bordick 7.3 XR (12.6 per 100 PA)
gms PA pit/PA BIPavg Krate Wrate Power XR /100PA
1-20: 33 4.2 .318 .212 .121 .136 3.1 9.4
21-40: 25 3.8 .450 .200 .000 .150 4.2 16.7
Jayson Werth 3.9 XR (11.5 per 100 PA)
gms PA pit/PA BIPavg Krate Wrate Power XR /100PA
21-40: 34 4.5 .313 .441 .029 .389 3.9 11.5
In closing, a chart listing year-to-date component skills:
player PA pit/PA BIPavg Krate Wrate Power
Stewart 202 3.7 .315 .085 .080 .120
Wells 191 3.4 .259 .131 .058 .216
Delgado 174 4.1 .340 .205 .128 .321
Phelps 164 3.6 .344 .256 .083 .208
Hinske 155 4.0 .320 .260 .084 .198
Cat 154 3.8 .360 .117 .052 .133
O-Dog 126 3.5 .311 .175 .095 .130
Woodward 122 3.8 .295 .164 .107 .112
Wilson 86 4.4 .363 .279 .129 .240
Myers 84 4.0 .385 .202 .119 .246
Bordick 58 4.1 .381 .207 .069 .143
Berg 56 3.6 .372 .161 .036 .156
Werth(AAA) 34 4.5 .313 .441 .029 .389
(Note: I have discussed component batting stats and XR in some detail in various articles posted at Batter's Box - please refer to my review of the 2003 offence through game 20)
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