Or, put differently, some questions about the first 20 games on the Jays schedule, 19 of which are in the books and the last of which takes place on Patriots Day in Boston tomorrow morning. I suggested back in the spring, when reviewing the schedule and taking into account the fact this team had a steep learning curve ahead of it, that no one should be shocked if the Blue Jays were 6-14 at this point. Should they cough up another loss tomorrow, this team will have hit that sorry prediction square on.
So these are the questions that spring to mind this Easter Sunday:
1. How the hell did this happen?
2. Are these guys really as bad as this?
3. What should be done now?
As I'll attempt to show in this entry, the answers to those three questions are (1) oh, they earned it, all right, (2) No, and (3) Be concerned, but also be patient.
1. The Jays got to 6-13 the old-fashioned way. They were beaten soundly both by superior opponents and by themselves. Here's a quick glance at some of the key statistics after 1/8 of a season:
Hitting (ranking out of 14 teams)
BA: 7th
OBP: 7th
SLG: 8th
R: 7th
HR: 9th
BB: 3rd
K: 1st
SB: 14th
SB%: 14th
The main offensive stats are middle-of-the-road, which actually reflects the pretty awesome potential of this offence. Only four of the regulars are hitting at an acceptable clip so far:
Player----------OPS
Delgado--------1.088
Catalanotto-----.894
Wells-----------.782
Stewart--------.780
Woodward------.711
Phelps----------.690
Hinske----------.596
Hudson---------.522
As you can see, most of the damage has been done by the top of the lineup. Carlos and Cat are playing a little above their heads, but Wells and Stewart are pretty much where you'd expect them. It's the youngsters who are stinking the joint up in the early going: those lower four guys have a collective BB/K rate of 25/68, led by Eric Hinske's dreadful 4/22. All of those players are better hitters than this, but either because of slumps or superior pitching, or both, they're really scuffling right now. The next 20 games should give them an opportunity to vent their frustration on lesser pitchers, regain some confidence at the plate, and start striking fear in a few pitching staffs around the league.
The team BB and K rankings pretty much reflect the offensive philsophy of this organization: lots of walks, lots of strikeouts and lots of home runs, so that's working. Except the home runs aren't (9th in the league). The Jays also rank third in the league in Pitches Seen per At-Bat: they're working the count as instructed, though query whether they've been doing much useful with that knowledge. Further, as has been discussed here before, the Blue Jays don't run --- they stole their first base of the season this afternoon, which puts them on pace to steal their second around Memorial Day; after a 71/18 SB/CS ratio last year, one of the best in the majors, Toronto is on pace to post an 8/40 ratio this season.
Some Oakland A's fans have been heard to complain that even when their team is winning, the walk/strikeout/homer offensive style is boring to watch. I'm here to tell whoever is interested that when a team with that offensive style is losing, it's excruciating.
Pitching (out of 14 teams)
ERA: 12th
Saves: 12th
HR allowed: T13th
BB: 12th
WHIP: 12th
K/BB: 13th
H/9: 11th...
...and, well, you get the idea. In case you're wondering, the teams ranked below Toronto in these categories are the Tigers, Rangers and Devil Rays. The pitching, in short, has not been good. And it has not been all the bullpen's fault:
Halladay: 0-2, 4.96, 32 IP, 43 H, 8 BB, 26 K
Lidle: 2-2, 5.92, 24 IP, 27 H, 4 BB, 25 K
Sturtze: 2-1, 5.09, 23 IP, 20 H, 15 BB, 11 K
Hendrickson: 1-2, 6.97, 20 IP, 32 H, 5 BB, 13 K
Walker: 1-1, 2.60, 17 IP, 10 H, 7 BB, 6 K
Now, there's no question that some of the secondary numbers are pretty good: Halladay and especially Lidle have posted terrific BB/K ratios. But they're also getting tattooed on a fairly regular clip, and it ain't been infield singles. And while it's true that the relievers have been letting the inherited runners score, it's also true that the starters are leaving entire cocktail parties on base when they trudge off the mound.
There is, I think, particular reason to be a little concerned about Roy Halladay. In 34 starts last year, Roy allowed 10 home runs; in 5 starts this year, he's allowed 5. Last year, he hit 7 batters all season; he's already plunked 3 in '03. He's getting ahead in the count, but he's not finishing guys off. He seems to be missing just enough -- not by much, only a few inches -- but enough so that hitters are able to catch up with him. He has not pitched at all like an ace, during a stretch when his team really needed him to do just that. The stopper has been Pete Walker, and folks, that ain't good.
But of course, let's not forget that pen:
Escobar: 0-1, 18.00, 5 IP, 11 H, 3 BB, 7 K
Tam: 0-1, 5.59, 9 IP, 13 H, 11 B, 5 K
Politte: 0-1, 4.70, 7 IP, 11 H, 3 BB, 8 K
Creek: 0-0, 7.20, 5 IP, 4 H, 6 BB, 2 K
The question that goes begging here is, are we considering the opposition? The Yankees have a truly awesome lineup, and the Red Sox can knock you around 1 through 9: they're the two top offences in the game right now. The problem, of course, is that in such a small sample size, it's hard to tell the chicken from the egg: are the Jays getting hammered because these offences are so good, or do these offences look so good because they're lighting up a AAAA Toronto staff? The answer is somewhere in between, but we won't know exactly where in between for another month or so.
A few other pitching numbers to consider: the Jays have issued 11 intentional walks to lead the league; so what's a few more baserunners between friends, anyway? But at least one thing is going right: the team's groundout/flyout ratio is 2nd in the league, which is how this staff has been constructed. The pitchers are inducing the grounders. Which brings us to our next topic:
Defence (ranked out of 14)
Errors: 14th
Fielding %: 14th
Double Plays: 4th
SB allowed: 14th
CS: T10th
SB-CS: 14th
Our eyes have not deceived us: the Jays have been the worst defensive team in the league thus far. I don't have the slightly better defensive stats like Range Factor and Zone Rating, but I'd be surprised if the Jays would score much better in those.
And the numbers above don't reflect what Kent accurately calls "E-10s," the mental errors that don't show up in box scores but that prolong innings and allow runners to move into scoring position. It doesn't reflect the horrible throws from right field or the dadaist approach to second base taken by Orlando Hudson. Though the squad ranks 4th in double plays, that's more a reflection of the extreme groundball nature of the staff and the masses of opposing runners littering the basepaths. And as has also been noted here before, the Blue Jays seem utterly indifferent to the opposition stolen base: 18 runners have successfuly swiped bases against just 3 caught stealing, and if Toronto pitchers are working to keep baserunners close, they must be using the power of positive thinking, because I've not seen a whole lot of throws to first.
To sum up: this team is deservedly 6-13, and in some ways it's remarkable they have the 6 wins. Some of this, I think, can be fairly attributed to tough opposition. But too much of it can't: fielders botching both routine and difficult plays, starters unable to hold leads or sometimes even give the batters a chance, relievers arriving on the mound with gasoline tanks, and a managerial strategy that treats stolen bases as acts of God and invites way too much second-guessing.
2. Are these guys really as bad as this? Is this what the balance of the season will look like? I think the answer to that question has to be no. As noted, the batters have yet to really hit their collective stride, and Halladay and Lidle just have to improve. While Frank Catalanotto will never be a great right fielder, he and his teammates can work to minimize their defensive limitations and make the most of the skills and smarts they do have. This time last year, many fans were calling Carlos Delgado the worst defensive first baseman in the league; this year, he's already made several terrific plays and has won raves for his glove. Defence can be learned, enough at least to reach a league-average level. It's up to the coaches to instruct, the players to learn and execute, and the manager to assign consequences for failures in either area.
I think allowances should be made for the schedule, but not huge ones: the Jays fancy themselves a contender on the rise, and contenders on the rise are expected to hold their own with the top teams, to at least look respectable while getting beat. The Jays could well have finished this stretch at .500: three or four winnable games were lost in the late going. But it's an old saw that bad teams find a way to lose games. The Yanks, Sox and Twins are tough opponents, it's true; but they're tough in part because they do precisely the things the Jays haven't done: make the difficult plays, get the critical out, and generally execute with the game on the line. These 20 games provided a measure of how far the Blue Jays are from the upper echelon of the American League, and the result could not be clearer: the Jays have a long way to go.
3. So now what? Does the team panic, blow the whole thing up and start from scratch? Well, of course not, and no one is seriously suggesting it. We, the loyal fan base, have been saying over and over for the last few months that this is a major reconstruction project underway here, and that there will be learning curves and growing pains. But like all fans, we look for the upside and envision the best possible outcome, so it's no surprise we're disappointed. But the watchword has to be patience, and then when that's used up, more patience. JP has never talked about contention before the 2005 season, and if that seemed overly cautious in March, it seems wildly optimistic today. The truth is, he's probably right.
On Opening Day last year, three-fourths of the 2003 infield and the 2003 DH were in the minors; the 2003 right fielder was playing second base in Texas; and the 2003 centrefielder and #3 hitter was a long-hyped prospect with serious question marks. The #2 guy in the rotation had two wins for an Oakland powerhouse at the '02 All-Star Break, the #3 starter was on his way to one of the worst seasons by a starter in 10 years, the #4 guy was in Syracuse, and the #5 starter -- the de facto ace so far this year -- was in the Mets bullpen. Folks, these ain't the '27 Yankees. They aren't even the '93 Blue Jays. Out of today's 25-man roster, you can count on exactly three players -- Halladay, Wells, Hinske -- to be on the next Blue Jays playoff team.
But while patience and realism are required, there's no cause for despair. This team will not lose 100 games, or even 90. The young hitters will perform better, because they have the track records, both in the majors and the minors, that prove it. The rotation will settle down -- none of the starters will be this bad over a full season, not one of them. The bullpen will continue to evolve -- Jason Kershner will soon be followed by Dan Reichert, and don't be shocked if Corey Thurman surfaces around July. Even the manager will come around, growing more willing to set his intelligent baserunners loose and to instruct his pitchers to throw over to first base once in a damn while. If anyone wants to wager that the Royals will finish with a better record than the Blue Jays this year, I will happily take that bet.
So take heart: the Rays and Tigers and Orioles are coming, and hay will be made while the sun shines. But then the Angels will come, and the Mariners and Athletics and Dodgers and Giants, and soon the Yankees and Red Sox again. The next 142 games will not be a cakewalk. So watch for improvement: look for Aquilino Lopez to get more critical setup work, for Mark Hendrickson to finish off guys on 1-2 counts, for Orlando Hudson to maintain his concentration on every ground ball. These are the benchmarks of real progress, and while the W-L record should improve accordingly, in the end the standings truly are a secondary concern.
We are watching an organization that had grown flaccid, overstuffed and mouldy, trying now to shake off a decade's worth of rot and institute a whole different culture. This ship will not turn on a dime, and it won't always be easy to watch; God knows the last 20 games sure haven't been. But keep the faith, watch for the gradual and then the sudden improvement, and try to bear the losses with as much long-term vision as possible. Think positive: the darkest times are over, and better days are yet to come.
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