Prospect-us

Saturday, February 01 2003 @ 01:18 AM EST

Contributed by: Coach

I know, it was only last Tuesday that I posted a "prospecting" article featuring Aaron Gleeman's list, but it is that time of year, and the gang at Baseball Prospectus have not only weighed in with their Top 40+, but their approach is fascinating.

Steve Z linked to Part One of the BP roundtable in one of his comments on our previous thread, but here it is again. Rany Jazayerli listed his picks, then the other staff writers commented publicly. It's an excellent discussion, not only of the prospects, but of the different weights people give to the variables in compiling such a list. Yesterday, the Prospectus panel continued their friendly argument in Part Two, and Rany adjusted his ratings according to the opinions of his peers. Here's how it looks now:

Baseball Prospectus 2003 - Top 40 Prospects List:

1 Mark Teixeira, 3B, Texas
2 Hideki Matsui, RF, New York (AL)
3 Jose Reyes, SS, New York (NL)
4 Victor Martinez, C, Cleveland
5 Jose Contreras, SP, New York (AL)

6 Brandon Phillips, 2B/SS, Cleveland
7 Hee Seop Choi, 1B, Chicago (NL)
8 Jerome Williams, SP, San Francisco
9 Joe Mauer, C, Minnesota
10 Chris Snelling, OF, Seattle

11 Jason Stokes, 1B, Florida
12 Rich Harden, SP, Oakland
13 Jesse Foppert, SP, San Francisco
14 Marlon Byrd, CF, Philadelphia
15 Michael Cuddyer, RF, Minnesota

16 Shin-Soo Choo, OF, Seattle
17 Aaron Heilman, SP, New York (NL)
18 Brendan Harris, 3B, Chicago (NL)
19 Kurt Ainsworth, SP, San Francisco
20 Travis Hafner, 1B, Cleveland

21 Francisco Rodriguez, RP, Anaheim
22 Joe Borchard, CF, Chicago (AL)
23 Scott Hairston, 2B, Arizona
24 Adrian Gonzalez, 1B, Florida
25 Jason Arnold, SP, Toronto

26 John Patterson, SP, Arizona
27 Casey Kotchman, 1B, Anaheim
28 Rocco Baldelli, OF, Tampa Bay
29 Miguel Cabrera, 3B, Florida
30 Justin Morneau, 1B, Minnesota

31 Wilson Betemit, SS, Atlanta
32 Cliff Lee, SP, Cleveland
33 Hanley Ramirez, SS, Boston
34 Justin Huber, C, New York (NL)
35 Clint Nageotte, SP, Seattle

36 Juan Rivera, LF, New York (AL)
37 Khalil Greene, SS, San Diego
38 Jayson Werth, OF, Toronto
39 Joey Thurston, 2B, Los Angeles
40 Bobby Jenks, SP, Anaheim

Honorable Mentions

Bobby Basham, SP, Cincinnati
Jeremy Bonderman, SP, Detroit
Bozied/Nady/Gautreau, H, San Diego
Kevin Cash, C, Toronto
Prince Fielder, 1B, Milwaukee
Gavin Floyd, SP, Philadelphia
Ken Harvey, 1B, Kansas City
Brad Hawpe/Jack Cust, H, Colorado
Brandon Larson, 3B, Cincinnati
Todd Linden, LF, San Francisco
James Loney, 1B, Los Angeles
Miguel Olivo, C, Chicago (AL)
Adam Wainwright, SP, Atlanta
David Wright, 3B, New York (NL)
Kevin Youkilis, 3B, Boston

This is heavily weighted in favour of proximity to the big leagues, which makes it very helpful if you include prospects in a fantasy draft, or if you want to start predicting the 2003 Rookie of the Year winners. Many of the guys we've discussed in other threads are near the top -- the three outstanding Giants pitchers are all in the top 20, and unlike Aaron Gleeman's list, "veteran rookies" Matsui and Contreras were considered. That's why Kevin Cash rates an honourable mention, but longer-range potential Jays are absent. If it was a "highest ceiling" list, kids like Joe Mauer would move up even more, while the likes of Juan Rivera and Jayson Werth might not have been included.

Even when a group of experts reaches consensus on the definition of a prospect, the process remains subjective. Rany dropped Bobby Jenks from #31 to #40, but stubbornly refused to exclude him, and even asked why "everybody" hates him. Two words, R.J. -- Steve Dalkowski. The similarities extend from the awesome fastball and complete lack of control to some questionable off-field habits. Sometimes you have to look beyond the radar gun and the K rate. Credit to Rany for admitting that Jenks, Prince Fielder and others are "interesting to write about" (like I just did) -- perhaps being controversial is the overlooked Sixth Tool.

Jason Arnold inched up a few spots, not because of overwhelming support, but because a few others got downgraded; he's the sixth best SP prospect and 25th overall. Nate Silver was outvoted, but gave a nod to Jason Perry, one of the phenomenal 2002 Jays draft class. Now I don't want to steal Jordan's thunder before the next farm report, but this guy is certainly worth watching:

 AVG   G  AB   R   H  TB 2B 3B HR RBI SH SF HP  BB IB  SO  SB CS DP   SLG   OBP  
.425  30 106  25  45  85  6  2 10  36  0  0  6  12  2  19   0  2  3  .802  .508


That's what Perry did in Rookie-league Medicine Hat, earning a late-season promotion not to one of the short-season or "low A" clubs, but all the way up to the Florida State League. In other words, he started at a lower level than #1 pick Russ Adams, but vaulted into similar company in his first (partial) pro season. The former Georgia Tech star should get a full year in Dunedin next, and is chasing a lot of other promising lefty-swinging OF/1B/DH types in the system, but adds to the organizational depth that has been constantly upgraded since J.P. and his staff took over.

BTW, if you want to check out 2002 minor-league stats, there's no better place than the Baseball America Player Finder. It's where I learned that another of the Jays recent collegiate picks, Brad Hassey, the former Arizona Wildcat SS, was rewarded for a promising NY/Penn League season with a late callup to Syracuse. So he's another who has impressed the brass.

Speaking of Nate Silver, remember PECOTA? It's his new statistical tool to help predict breakout seasons and collapses. He applied it to a bunch of hitters on a Peter Gammons list, and we discussed the results on BB a while back. In case you care, and haven't seen it yet, here is the followup piece on the pitchers PG mentioned. The stuff about Jake Peavy (PECOTA says beware) is worth reading if you are interested in the development of young pitchers.

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