The Art of Prediction

Thursday, January 30 2003 @ 06:11 AM EST

Contributed by: Craig B

Our newest stalwart, Robert Dudek, has loaned me a copy of Bill James's 1984 Baseball Abstract, for which I can't thank him enough. Already, I found something interesting.

In the Boston Red Sox team comment, James has a block of stats with the tag "This is what Wade Boggs's career statistics are going to look like when he retires. Remember, this is where you read it first."

James's predicted career totals for Boggs?

G     AB    Runs  Hits  2B   3B  HR   RBI   Walk  Avg
2446  8771  1352  3023  509  52  129  1266  1261  .345


And his actual stats?

G     AB    Runs  Hits  2B   3B  HR   RBI   Walk  Avg
2439  9180  1513  3010  578  61  118  1014  1412  .328


Other than the fact that Boggs eventually became a leadoff hitter, instead of a #3 hitter as he was in 1983, this is extraordinary. (The Runs Scored and RBI are each off quite a bit, but James predicted 2618 Runs + RBI, and Boggs wound up with 2,527).

Remember, James did this off of one full season, the 1983 season, and one half-season in 1982.

Uncanny.

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