At Kent’s very kind invitation, I’m going to try contributing a couple of articles to this terrific Weblog. My name is Jordan Furlong and I’m a legal magazine editor in Ottawa, as well as a long-time Blue Jays fan. How long-time? I remember when Barry Bonnell, Lloyd Moseby and Hosken Powell patrolled the outfield at Exhibition Stadium, and Roy Lee Jackson was the team’s best option to close out games.
Not exactly halcyon days, and like most Jays fans, I became spoiled by the 1983-93 run of success, was heartbroken by the many near-misses (I’m looking at you, Larry Herndon), and the still-astonishing triumphs of ’92 and ’93. But the Dark Ages from 1994-2001, the years of the Belgian brewers, Gord Ash and Tim Johnson, almost made me nostalgic for people named Iorg. Under the new management, however, my interest in the team has been revitalized, and I’m as positive about this organization as I’ve been in a long time.
I’m also a fellow poster at Baseball Primer (http://www.baseballprimer.com), and I second Kent’s recommendation for this site as one of the best around for intelligent and civil baseball discussions. I’m probably more thoroughly ensconced in the sabrmetric camp than Kent is – being a lawyer and all, I have a real fondness for hard evidence, and I’m a devotee of innovative thinking. Sabrmetrics provides both of these angles to its analysis, and though it’s definitely a work in progress, and some of its disciples can be a tad overenthusiastic, it’s still my guiding principle in baseball analysis.
I hasten to add, however, that I am by no means a number cruncher or any kind of sabrmetric expert: I’m a liberal arts major who managed a 55 in the last math course he ever took (okay, it was Calculus, but still...), so any errors in the calculations or assessments below are entirely mine, and corrections will be welcomed.
This first article is going to review the Jay hitters’ individual 2002 major-league performances in light of the more sophisticated statistical measurements out there. These stats are provided courtesy of Baseball Prospectus (http://www.baseballprospectus.com), and the least I can do is offer a serious plug for this site and its works.
The folks at BP are on the cutting edge of serious baseball analysis, guided by (but not limited to) powerful statistics that look beyond traditional measures of performance and find a player’s real contribution to pitching and offence (defensive analysis is still a sabrmetric work in progress, but between BP’s Fielding Runs and Bill James’ Win Shares, we’ve just about turned the corner). This link to BP’s new glossary (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/cards/glossary.shtml) will explain some of the terms in this analysis, but here’s a brief description of the most significant:
EqA and EqR: Equivalent Average and Equivalent Runs. BP defines EqA as “combining a player’s abilities to hit for average, hit for power, draw walks and steal bases into one number” – kind of a one-stop superstat, if you like. EqA is the rate statistic, and it can usefully be thought of in the same way as batting average: a .300 EqA player is considered sabrmetrically valuable in the same way that a .300 batter has been considered traditionally valuable. Likewise, producing 100 EqR can be compared to scoring 100 runs or compiling 100 RBI.
RARP: Runs Above Replacement Position. This is an estimate of the number of runs a player contributes above a “replacement level” player at this position, defined as the level of performance at which a player can easily be found at little or no cost to a team. There are numerous opinions on what “replacement level” amounts to in real terms, and of course it varies from position to position. BP’s new glossary contains a good definition. I tend to think of replacement-level players as guys you could pull out of a paper bag, which is probably both inaccurate and a little mean-spirited. Anyway, you get the idea. For some minor-league players, I'll refer to Major League EqA (ML_EqA), a BP calculation that assesses the EqA the player would have produced if he'd been in the bigs, taking into account league difficulty, ballaprk effects and so forth.
In terms of other statistics in this article: I’m a great fan of the walk-to-strikeout (BB/K) ratio, which I think needs to be at least 1-to-2 before you can take a player seriously. It basically reflects a player’s knowledge of the strike zone, which for most hitters is the key to any degree of long-term major-league success. From time to time, I’ll also bring up the holy trinity of batting average/on-base percentage/slugging percentage (BA/OBP/SLG), as well as OPS, the shorthand addition of OBP and SLG that closely mirrors overall value (an 800 OPS is pretty much the baseline level of effective major-league production).
Defensively, my tools are fewer, so I’ll refer to three basic but still useful stats: fielding percentage (FP, which you know about), range factor (RF, a rough assessment of how many balls the player gets to, useful but impacted by pitching staff and other factors), and zone rating (ZR, a Stats Inc. assessment of how many balls in a player’s zone he gets to, also useful but also affected by subjectivity and context).
Finally, in placing a player among his contemporaries, I set a minimum number of plate appearances for that position, so that most of the starters or near-regular players would be available for comparison. Because of two-player or multi-player platoon situations on some teams, the number of players ranked at each position is usually in the mid- to high-20s.
Ready, after all that introductory baffleglab? :-) Great! Here we go. This first part of the article will look at the infield positions, while Part 2, to be posted in a few days’ time, will examine the outfield and DH. In between, I hope to have a few words on the Blue Jays’ first off-season signing, Doug Creek.
Catcher
Player: Ken Huckaby (279 Plate Appearances)
EqA/EqR/RARP: .200/18.3/-4.2
Rank: 23/24 (Minimum 300 PA for this position)
Players Directly Above & Below: Bengie Molina and Einar Diaz
Player: Tom Wilson (295 PAs)
EqA/EqR/RARP: .260/33.7/9.1
Rank: 18/24
Between: Tom Lampkin & Brad Ausmus
Although Wilson had more plate appearances in 2002, he’s listed here behind Huckaby, because one-third of Wilson’s PA came at positions other than catcher. That’s kind of too bad, because Wilson was at least a half-decent offensive contributor, while his platoon mates were giant centre-of-the-galaxy black holes, sucking outs into their vast nothingness like so many hapless suns (Darrin Fletcher, for example, posted a .199 EqA in 131 PAs before taking a permanent All-Star Break). Huckaby was four games worse than a replacement-level, pulled-out-of-a-paper-bag catcher, and replacement standards for catchers are not terribly high.
The counterbalance for Huckaby, of course, was his defensive reputation; though there was a hole in his bat, they said, he was a steadying influence behind the plate. So how good was he? Well, he threw out 20 of 57 attempted base-stealers, a .351 clip, not bad, but good for only middle-of-the-pack status: 12 semi-regulars threw out 40% or more in 2002, and baserunning has declined in importance anyway. Wilson, by the by, threw out only 13 of 57, a .228 clip. Huckaby also had 13 passed balls, third in the majors behind Jason LaRue and Geromino Gil, both of whom threw out more baserunners. Really, Huckaby’s only redeeming feature was his Catcher’s ERA of 4.28, better than Wilson’s 5.07 and Fletcher’s 5.57. But there is serious doubt that CERA is a reliable measure of receiving and pitch-calling skills, because there’s almost no consistency in CERA rankings from year-to-year.
Assessment: Maybe they should have simply moved Buck Martinez behind the plate, because catcher was a real problem for Toronto last year. Huckaby is clearly little more than a placeholder for Kevin Cash, whose rapid ascent through the minors knocked Josh Phelps and Jayson Werth into other positions (more on that later). But Cash produced only a .225 Major-League EqA in a half-season at Syracuse, following a half-season .260 ML_EqA at AA Knoxville. By most estimates, he won’t be ready for the bigs until at least June, and even then likely won’t be putting up Piazzaish numbers, though his defence comes highly touted. Me, I’d be giving Tom Wilson a lot more time behind the dish in 2003 till then.
First base
Player: Carlos Delgado (616 PA)
EqA/EqR/RARP: .330/114/54.4
Rank: 5/26 (500 PA min)
Between: Rafael Palmeiro & Ryan Klesko
For all the grief he took this year, Carlos Delgado finished 2002 among the best first basemen in the majors, ahead of big names like Jeff Bagwell and Todd Helton and young up-and-comers like Richie Sexson and Paul Konerko (he also rated 12th in overall AL RARP). Those eager to cut Delgado loose or deal him for pitching need to understand that he is not an easily replaceable commodity. He’s younger than the four guys who finished ahead of him in RARP (Thome, Giambi, Olerud and Palmeiro), and anyone who watched him play in the last month of the season saw a different person than the one worn down by the constant losing, managerial circuses and unrelenting media scrutiny of the past several years. This is an enthusiastic team on the rise, and Delgado is demonstrating that he wants to belong.
The knocks on Delgado, of course, are his defence and hustle. The former is hard to measure, since defensive stats such as range factor are pretty meaningless for his position. His fielding percentage was one of the lowest among starting first basemen, his zone rating was in the lower half, and while he was second in the AL in double plays, that says more about his pitching staff and infield. It’s fair to say Delgado is meant to be a DH, but if he doesn't want to do it – and he’s been pretty clear that he doesn’t – he’s not killing the Jays with his glove. As for the latter point, it’s worthy of debate, but it’s fair to say that the player who moped around the basepaths in May and watched grounders roll past him into right field in July is not the same player who tore up the league in September.
Assessment: It’s not like Delgado’s going anywhere, not at that price, with that no-trade clause, and this evident newfound enthusiasm for the organization. He’s the central cog of the offence and a growing presence in the clubhouse (the celebrated rookie hazing is the most public example). And if he costs a lot of money, well, things could be worse: first base could be manned by Mo Vaughn ($10 M, 18.3 RARP), Tino Martinez ($5.75 M, 10.0 RARP) or Eric Karros ($6.5 M, 5.0 RARP). Those with low expectations of Delgado for 2003 could be very surprised: he is still a great hitter.
Second Base
Dave Berg (402 PA) (183 as 2B)
EqA/EqR/RARP: .251/43.0/6.6
Rank: 24/26 (400 PA min)
Between: Mark Grudzielanek and Brent Abernathy
Orlando Hudson (202 PA)
EqA/EqR/RARP: .268/25.6/8.3
Rank: 20/26
Between D’Angelo Jimenez and Pokey Reese
All you need to know about Homer Bush and Joe Lawrence is (1) they combined for a .188 EqA and -6.6 RARP in 250 PAs, and (2) they are so gone. I hope Homer invested the $3.25M he took home this past year, ‘cause he ain’t seeing those dollars again unless he plays a lot of Powerball. I have no idea what happened to Joe Lawrence: maybe he needs to go to another organization to get his career back on his track. I wouldn’t be surprised if all the position-jacking the Jays inflicted on him the last few years was a factor.
Anyway, the Blue Jays have found their second baseman of the immediate future, a man doomed to be profiled with cliches like “colourful” and “controversial”: Orlando Hudson. Setting all that aside (and I really hope we don’t have to hear any more about the pimp comment), Hudson had a pretty nice debut after his call-up in late July, marred only by a slump in September that shouldn’t raise too many concerns. He performed as advertised: a solid bat (.305 BA at AAA, .276 in Toronto), extra-base power (his combined 2002 totals: 37 doubles, 8 triples and 14 HRs) and a flashy glove. Hudson’s BB/K ratio wasn’t bad, 11/27 – not far off the solid 35/54 he posted at AAA – but he'll need steady plate discipline to survive in JP Ricciardi’s Toronto. The .360 OBP he posted at Syracuse in '02 would be a marvellous result for his first full Toronto season in ‘03.
Dave Berg turned out to be the Joe Lawrence the Blue Jays had hoped for, playing seven positions adequately and supplying reasonable offence for a utility guy. Assuming that Toronto will have a legitimate fourth outfielder on the roster next season and that right field won’t be the same kind of sinkhole again, Berg will probably stick to the infield and back up Hinske, Woodward and Hudson. As those three players (hopefully) settle into their positions for a full season, Berg shouldn’t count on getting this many ABs next year.
Assessment: After six different guys put in substantial time in the middle infield in 2002, the biggest improvement for Toronto’s double-play pairing will be consistency. Chris Woodward and Orlando Hudson should be the keystone combo from Dunedin onwards, and that should make a lot of difference both defensively and at the plate. However, keep in mind that the Blue Jays have Russ Adams and Dominic Rich in the lower minors, both of whom project as solid second basemen, and Orlando has evidently attracted trade interest from other clubs. The reality of player development seems to be getting as much as you can out of a guy before he becomes arbitration-eligible, then being ready to replace him with someone just as good but four years younger and cheaper. Hudson is a very promising player, but I wouldn't let my kid get too attached to him if I were you.
Shortstop
Chris Woodward (341 PA)
EqA/EqR/RARP: .281/47.3/19.3
Rank: 11 of 28 (400 PA min)
Between: Alex Gonzalez (yes, that one) and Rich Aurilia
Felipe Lopez (306 PA)
EqA/EqR/RARP: .236/30.1/2.5
Rank: 26 of 28 (400 PA min)
Between: Barry Larkin (how sad is that?) and Rey Ordonez
One big disappointment here, and one big surprise. Though really, Lopez’s struggles shouldn’t have come as any great shock. His numbers at Syracuse in 2001 were not promising: a .279 average with a terrible 30/94 BB/K ratio. He duplicated the ratio - a dreadful 23/90 – but the average dropped to .229. Ninety strikeouts in 282 ABs is not what you want to see from your shortstop of the future. Not that I'm second-guessing the dumping of Alex Gonzalez, which was absolutely necessary and positive; but Lopez, at just 21, was clearly not ready for the bigs this year. And not just on the field; if persistent rumours are to be believed (and what’s the point of rumours if you don’t believe the most persistent ones?), Lopez fell in love with the nightlife and chose Raul Mondesi as his role model, which is like having your daughter decide she wants to grow up to be Lara Flynn Boyle.
What’s Lopez’s future? He hit very well in Syracuse after his demotion, but the Jays keeps insisting Woodward is their shortstop. Another year in Syracuse would not be bad for Lopez, giving him time to grow up a little and take advantage of the on-base teachers the Blue Jays are no doubt deploying even now to P&C Stadium. But if he can be made part of a package this winter for a solid starting pitcher – and crazy optimist that I am, I keep imagining Damian Moss in a Toronto uniform – I have a feeling Ricciardi will bid him adieu.
Woodward, of course, was the surprise. We all assumed he was another Ryan Freel; who figured he’d spend the year looking like the next Jeff Kent? He hit pretty well in the minors and showed occasional power, but this was totally unexpected. Ricciardi has already named him the starting shortstop for 2003, which some people wonder about, not unreasonably. Woodward posted a 26/72 BB/K ratio and cooled down so dramatically the last several weeks of the season that one could reasonably wonder if this was a late-season slump or a failure to adjust to pitchers’ new approach to him.
How about defensively? Among regular shortstops, only Mike Bordick and Neifi Perez had better range factors. But RF is a stat highly dependent on the degree to which one’s pitching staff is a groundball or flyball staff, and led by extreme groundballer Roy Halladay, Toronto’s staff killed a lot of worms at home plate. Woodward’s fielding percentage and zone rating were mediocre. In other words, Chris Woodward was a pretty average shortstop in 2002. Considering the team’s expectations going in, that’s got to be considered a huge success story. But is that the optimal long-term solution at this key position?
Assessment: We’ll have to wait till next season to find out if Woodward is a legitimate major-league shortstop. Lopez still gets scouts excited, but this is not an club much interested in what excites scouts. Without better all-around discipline, Lopez will not advance further in this organization. If Lopez and Woodward both make it to spring training, then it’s Woodward’s job to lose and Lopez’s future to regain. A full season for Woodward with an 800 OPS and a steady glove will seal Lopez’s ticket out of town ... but this story’s not written yet.
Third Base
Eric Hinske (641 PAs)
EqA/EqR/RARP: .299/99.5/46.0
Rank: 1/27 (400 PA min)
Between: Nobody and Eric Chavez
That’s right – according to RARP, Eric Hinske was the best offensive third baseman in baseball last year. Chavez had a slightly better EqR and Edgardo Alfonzo had a slightly higher EqA, but overall Hinske was the man. He started strong, survived a mid-season slump and finished with most team rookie records in his pocket. And his attitude has to be considered a plus. I watched him the last weekend of the season in a meaningless game against the meaningless Tigers. He hammered a ball to the left-centrefield gap that Andres Torres ran down for an out. Seeing the catch made, Hinske slammed his helmet down in disgust on the basepaths. I probably wouldn’t want to live with someone that competitive, but I sure love having him on my baseball team.
Then, of course, there’s Hinske’s defence. Brutal at the start of the year, it improved markedly following intense training with third-base coach Brian Butterfield. That said, he finished the year at the lower end of the third base spectrum in fielding percentage, range factor, zone rating, double plays and most every other kind of defensive measure. This should be a concern for the Jays: with an extreme groundballer for a staff ace, they should be giving consideration to what kind of gloves populate the left side of their infield. About the best you can say for Hinske and Woodward defensively is that they’re not terrible and they should both improve with hard work, which both have shown they’re quite capable of.
Assessment: Hinske was a revelation for Toronto, and if Justin Miller continues to round into shape next season, then the Billy Koch trade is going to look even more lopsided a year from now. He is a legitimate big-league hitter with excellent plate discipline, good power and surprising speed. So of course, it’s time to sound a note of caution: fans should keep their expectations in check. I’ve already read projections of 35–40 HRs for Hinske next year. While that may be an eventual upside for him, let’s not get hasty. If Hinske can again launch 25 or more HRs and even approach a 900 OPS, while continuing to improve his defence, Toronto fans should be extremely happy.
Okay, I think I’ve taken up quite enough of your time at this point. I’ll deliver the second half of this opus, featuring the outfielders and DH, in several days’ time. If you have any questions, comments, objections, brickbats or anything else feedback-related, please drop me a line at gideonjclarke@yahoo.com. Thanks for reading.
https://www.battersbox.ca/article.php?story=20021030060748999