130-140s. 

Decent, but far from special.

I think AJ will just creep over the 150 mark. What with modern medicine and big contracts players seem to hang around forever.

I think AJ will just creep over the 150 mark. What with modern medicine and big contracts players seem to hang around forever.

Yeah, but will AJ's arm hang around?

"Yeah, but will AJ's arm hang around?"

If David Wells can do it I'm thinking AJ can too.

CLS, I think you're bang-on with that 130's guesstimate. The key for Jay fans, is he 138-116 or 136-143?

To the three people (so far, as I write this) who selected 200+ ... I would seriously like to hear your rationale. That's not a criticism, it's an invitation.

If Burnett averages 18 wins a year through 2013, that would get him to 185. (He's never won more than 12 in a single season, yet, anyway.)  So if he matched his career high in season wins for the next 11 years -- until he is 41, in 2018 -- he'd be at 191.

Am I over-complicating the projection, or what am I missing?

 

I think you're missing a little something, yes.  That being, when your career high in Wins is a mere 12, I don't think it's such a big deal to exceed that for many years to come.  Wins are a team stat, not a personal stat, so being on good teams over the next decade would be a huge factor as well.

Personally I don't think he'll get 200, it's just too far to go.  But I could see him hit 170.

Ryan's absolutely right, you're really missing something by focusing on wins. Following the logic you're putting forward, Chien-Ming Wang (218 IP, 122 ERA+) should have won the same number of games as John Lackey (217-2/3 IP, 124 ERA+) in 2006, right? But of course that's not what actually happened - Wang won 19, while Lackey was credited just 13 wins.

As for Burnett in particular, he'll have a very strong offence behind him for the near future, and the only time he's ever posted a bad ERA in a season was his 23 inning 2003. The key for him is simply health.

"As for Burnett in particular, he'll have a very strong offence behind him for the near future, and the only time he's ever posted a bad ERA in a season was his 23 inning 2003. The key for him is simply health."

Having a good team is easily the biggest factor in wins, but it is not the only one. Burnett has major injury problems which have kept his wins low his entire career. Also, he often throws too many pitches which means he has to come out of games a little earlier which again means fewer wins. Also, I would call the Jays offense average for the AL and "very good" is certainly a large stretch.