Who will lead MLB in home runs in 2008? (Current total shown.)
| Chase Utley (20) |  0 (0.00%) |
| Lance Berkman (17) | 1 (20.00%) |
| Adrian Gonzalez (16) | 0 (0.00%) |
| Dan Uggla (16) | 0 (0.00%) |
| Josh Hamilton (15) | 0 (0.00%) |
| Adam Dunn (15) | 2 (40.00%) |
| Ryan Howard (15) | 1 (20.00%) |
| Ryan Braun (15) | 0 (0.00%) |
| Matt Stairs (6, leads TOR) | 1 (20.00%) |
| Other (who?) | 0 (0.00%) |
I voted for Glaus, but deep, deep, deep inside me, where some silly person lurks - I wanted to vote for "other" and plug Johnny Mac to have a break out year and hit 40 dingers. BUT, I just couldn't bring myself to it. Chickenin' out in my old age.
Seriously: Glaus 42, Thomas 36, Wells and Rios 31 each, Overbay 24, Stairs and Hill 20 each, Johnson 12 and Zaunnie 12. And oh yea, Johnny Mac hits an inside the park homer on a very, very foggy day in April.
If Mylegacy is right, or even in the ballpark of right (230+ homers?), it'd be a shock. A pleasant shock, to be sure, but a shock nonetheless. It happened before, in 2000, when the Jays hit 244 HRs on a series of career HR years. That year the team's starting lineup averaged 27-28 years old...it hurts to remember that they never got better, but they did basically peak when they should have been expected to. The 2008 Jays (barring major changes) don't look nearly as likely to manage something like that, being a fairly old team. Also, 2000 was the peak of the HR era, so 230 HRs this year would be way more impressive than 244 back then.
With the surgery on his foot a success, Glaus will go back to hitting dingers and will finish the year with 39. Thomas and Wells will rebound and hit 34 and 32 respectively, Rios will belt 28, and Overbay and his healed hand will launch 22. Stairs won't get the at-bats to break 20, and unless Johnson is non-tendered, niether will Lind.
That's my prediction.
Rios (32), Glaus (31), Thomas (24), Overbay (24), Wells (20). Healthy seasons for Glaus [well, no more healthy than usual], Thomas, and Wells. But overall downward spikes from their career norms. All 3 have already peaked.
I like your optimism, but I don't see it happening for 2 major reasons - coming off major shoulder surgery and 'the book' is out on Vernon Wells.
Injuries aside last year, I saw some of the worst plate approaches from an established major league hitter in my time watching baseball. Consistantly swinging at bad pitches and the EXACT SAME ONES - High, hard and inside, and low breaking stuff away. Wells is going to have to show that he can reestablish himself and not swing at those pitches - like he did ALL last year. You just didn't see the marked improvement that you should from a major league hitter. Blaming Brantley isn't the answer either. If the Average fan was noticing it in the first quarter of the season, you bet Brantley was.
CLS, buddy, you sound like you have November bitterness. I'll buy the surgery excuse for a below average Vernon 08 season, but not the book being out. The dude has been a big leaguer for 8 years and they only figured him out in '07? I think it has more to do with anxiety, pain and pressing. He's only 29 in next summer and I think he'll bounce back.
I think some go up (Thomas more, Vernon more, Rios more, Lyle more) and hopefully Glaus more.
Then again, it may also be true that it's later seen as a good job by JP. Time will tell the tale.
I don't think Wells' troubles last year were a result of pitchers finally figuring him out. His 2003 season was his best to date, and three years later in 2006, he finished the season with a .899 OPS. I think his struggles were a combination of injury and pressing too much after signing his new contract.
Until I saw this poll I didn't know that Hill our HR'd Wells this year. With that as a stat how can our offence not be better. Rundown by position
- C: Should improve: Zaun's healthy, and if he goes down we should have a better backup than Phillips.
- 1b: Should improve: Assuming Overbay's healthy and returns to anything even remotely near career norms.
- 2b: Should stay where it is: Hill had an up and down season, I'd expect any upgrade or decline to be minimal.
- SS: Sigh... Stay the same: Unless we get Tejada, or Pronky teaches J-Mac a thing or two.
- 3b: A real wild card but in my opinion should improve: All of this bank's on Glaus being remotely healthy. I think he will because of the surgery.
- LF: Should stay where it is: Any decline by Stairs should negate Reed's improvement.
- CF: Should improve: I mean... Wells can't be worse than last year... Right?
- RF: Should stay where it is: Just a conservative guess, could explode to be even better.
- DH: Should stay where it is: I assume it'll be a bit better but not by too much.
So we don't see a real decline in any position and hopefully we'll stay more healthy.
Guy's come on we can't expect a 40 home run season from Wells he's just not that type of player. What we should come to expect from Vernon is a solid .270avg/26 home runs/around 100 rbi and stellar defence. It's the same thing with Rios, he is not a big time power hitter as he's improving on taking the ball the other way we should expect around 28-30 homeruns and a .300 plus average.