Bottom of the ninth, bases loaded, two outs, down one ... who do you most want at the plate? Tell us why!
| Roberto Alomar |  55 (16.27%) |
| George Bell | 9 (2.66%) |
| Joe Carter | 23 (6.80%) |
| Carlos Delgado | 41 (12.13%) |
| Tony Fernandez | 15 (4.44%) |
| Paul Molitor | 123 (36.39%) |
| John Olerud | 31 (9.17%) |
| Pat Tabler | 23 (6.80%) |
| Vernon Wells | 6 (1.78%) |
| Other (please specify) | 12 (3.55%) |
Pat Tabler? PAT TABLER? Should we queue up "One of These Things is Not Like the Others"?
Not at all. According to BBRef, Tabler was 43-for-88 (.489 BA!) in his career with the sacks jammed. Nobody has ever been better longer.
However, if the pitcher is Dennis Eckersley, then the answer is obviously Robbie Alomar.
Game 6, 2-2 count, Henderson, Molitor aboard, down 1...
Joe Carter. How can you deny his ability to get a clutch hit in a BJ uniform?
Give the man his appropriate credit.
Well, in real life Blue Jays history, it would probably be Roberto Alomar. I don't know what his actual LIPS AVG was from 91-93 but he seemed close to invincible.
However, on the heels of a tremendous April, I voted "other" for Frank Catalanotto. If all you need is a single, I have full confidence that the Cat will deliver. He's a professional hitter who doesn't seem overmatched against anybody. Sure the .500 OBP is unlikely to last, but Frankie's a singles machine.
I voted Alomar. I saw him hit two game-tying last-chance homers in the same game against Cleveland -- one from each side of the plate! (They did lose ultimately, alas.)
Jayjay, I'd be more likely to pick Carter if there were one out. He was an excellent source of sacrifice flies.
And, looking it up...indeed, Joe's the all-time SF king for the Jays, despite posting considerably fewer plate appearances than runner-up Delgado.
While the greatest hitter in team history is Carlos Delgado, and the greatest single season offensive performance is either Delgado in 2000 or John Olerud in 1993 - the one Blue Jay who delivered exactly what his team needed, time after time after time was Paul Molitor in 1993.
Runner-up: George Bell in 1989. Far, far indeed, from his best season, but for the same reason as Molitor. Whether it was a sac fly, or a single, or whatever... you needed it , he provided it.
From the 1993 World Series Video:
I knew if I hit a home run, we'd win the world series. But that's not percentages. Instead I'd look for the pitch to keep the inning alive.
--Paul Molitor
Even with the bases loaded and everyone else thinking the same thing (any on-base activity wins the game), I'd go with Molitor.
Becuase he's the best hitter on the list.
Incidentally, I didn't vote for either, swayed by the magic of Pat Tabler's bases-loaded history.
If we are playing to win it right there, right then, then my choice would be Molitor, because he is the best contact hitter of the bunch. Although guys like Joe Carter, who hit the most important hit in Jays history and George Bell, the only MVP in Jays history deserves some merit, but from an statistical standpoint, we have much better odds going with the other guys.
KR, I don't see how you can reasonably defend the idea that Delgado is the best hitter on a list that includes Molitor. Sure, Delgado will hit his 400th homer this year, but even as a power guy, he'll be another 150 XBH short of Molly's 953 career -- just not as many were homers for Molitor. And the speed issue, which is of course fundamentally different from "hitting" per se, isn't even close. That's not even to mention Molitor's career batting average (.306) was 22 points higher than Delgado's is right now. There's a reason Molitor's in the HOF, while Delgado may be some day but is right now probably a 50/50 proposition. (Yes, I think he should and will get in. But he's not there yet and his BBRef most similar player is one Albert Belle, who shouldn't make any Cooperstown plans any time soon.)
Delgado's best OPS+ seasons: 182, 161, 160, 153, 150, 141
Molitor's best OPS+ seasons: 161, 147, 142, 140, 138, 126
Molitor had speed, Delgado has power. Molitor's career OBP is .369, while Delgado's career OBP is .393. Given Delgado has been fairly healthy throughout his career, it is not unreasonable to suggest he will collect another 200 extra-base hits in his career. The Mets sure seem to think he'll do it. :) I think Delgado has had a higher peak and will probably at least have as valuable a career as Molitor, at least in terms of hitting. Once you bring defense into it... When he was younger, Molitor could play second, third, and shortstop, so that has some added value over what Delgado does at first base. Considering the whole package, as players they are probably pretty close to even, but in the scenario the poll describes, I'll take Carlos' patience over Molitor's situational hitting.
Mick, I don't see how it's relevant to compare Molitor's counting stats to Delgado's when Molly played 8 years more than what Delgado has so far. And even moreso, Molitor's batting average 'advantage' is totally meaningless - Delgado has a higher OBP and a higher SLG.
Now, Delgado is unlikely to remain a reasonably effective player through age 41 as Molitor did, and Molitor was most definitely an asset in the speed department (504 SB at a 79% success rate). But a better hitter than Delgado has been thus far? Not even close. As mentioned, coming into this season Delgado was ahead of him in OBP (24 points) and SLG (111 points). That translates to a 142 OPS+ for Delgado, 122 OPS+ for Molitor. And at Delgado's career .489 XBH / G, he's two and a half seasons from passing Molitor in the 'total extra base hits category'. That'd be halfway through his age 36 season. It'll take much more than normal age-related decline to stop Delgado from passing Molitor there.
Albert Belle isn't in the Hall because his career was cut short by injury and because he had the 'bad apple' label. It has nothing to do with how good of a hitter he was when he was playing.
Against a right-handed pitcher, Olerud '93 version. Against a lefty, Molitor '93-'94 version. That season Olerud had everything working. We don't have plate apperance distributions, but my guess is that against right-handed pitchers, his line was something like 25% line drives, 25% ground balls, 18% fly balls, 25% walks and 7% strikeouts. That's pretty much ideal in the bases loaded, 2 out, one run down situation.
For me, it came down to Fernandez, Alomar and Delgado, three players who always raised their games when it was all on the line and have great numbers in bases-loaded and in RBI situations. Alomar was great with the sacks jammed, and so was Delgado, but I gave it to Carlos on the basis that he did it for longer and he's not Roberto F. Alomar. Alomar did hit .442 as a Blue Jay with the bases loaded, so the Alomar boosters here have a real good point.
Here's what we do know. Olerud had 466 plate appearances vs RHP in 1993. He had 80 walks (17%) and struck out 42 times (9%).
He also had 150 hits (32%). He batted .396, with an OBP of .500, while slugging .678.
He didn't even make the cut, but Fred McGriff might have had the greatest three year run (1988-1990) of any hitter in team history. Changing offensive standards have masked the fact that the only offensive seasons in team history clearly more productive than McGriff's run are Delgado's 2000 and Olerud's 1993. And McGriff's three years are essentially identical in value - he never had one special career year that stands out from the rest - he was just consistently great.
Here are the Top 15 single season OPS+ in team history:
John Olerud, 1993 185
Carlos Delgado, 2000 182
Fred McGriff, 1989 161
Carlos Delgado, 2003 160
Fred McGriff, 1988 157
Fred McGriff, 1990 157
Carlos Delgado 2002 153
Carlos Delgado, 1998 150
Jesse Barfield, 1986 147
George Bell, 1987 146
Shawn Green, 1999 143
Jesse Barfield, 1985 142
Paul Molitor, 1993 142
Carlos Delgado, 2001 141
Roberto Alomar, 1993 140
Thanks, Magpie for the R/L figures. Had the situation been different (say runner on 1st, 2 outs in the bottom of the ninth and down by 1), McGriff or Delgado would have been my choice against a right-handed pitcher, and if forced to choose, I probably would flip a coin.