Batter's Box Interactive Magazine - Blue Jays 2012 Top Prospects: 10-1

Blue Jays 2012 Top Prospects: 10-1

Welcome to the creme de la creme, the number one through ten prospects. In case you missed it number 11 through 20 are here, and number 21 to 30 are here.

We hope you enjoyed this top 30 and the hope it brings to the future of the Blue Jays organization. Check back tomorrow for a few who missed the top 30.

10. Marcus Stroman | RHP

Year	Age	Level	G	GS	IP	H/9	HR/9	BB/9	K/9	ERA
2012	21	RK	7	0	11.1	6.4	0.0	2.4	11.9	3.18
2012	21	AA	8	0	8	9	1.1	6.8	9.0	3.38

You can't write up Stroman without acknowledging the 50 game suspension. Though he came out of the draft with the label of the pick most likely to reach the majors first, any doubt he would pitch with the Blue Jays in 2012 was wiped away by the suspension (despite the curious quirk of the rules which would have allowed him to pitch in the majors despite the suspension). Stroman will not be able to join his 2013 teammates, presumably the Dunedin squad but possibly New Hampshire, until the third week of May.

The predictions of a fast track to the majors presumed, of course, that he was brought along, at least initially, as a reliever (in the mold of the Chicago White Sox's Chris Sale). There's no clear indication whether the Jays plan to do that, or to take the slower road and develop him with an eye towards the starting rotation. If the latter, Stroman's outstanding slider will have to be complimented by an improvement in his fastball, as well as one or more secondary pitches.Still, it's not beyond the realm of possibility that development and circumstances would combine to put him in a Toronto uniform by the end of the coming season. It will be interesting to see how willing the Blue Jays are to buy in to Stroman's defiance of the conventional wisdom that a (relatively) short man can't succeed as a major league starter.

9. Daniel Norris | LHP

Year	Age	Level	G	GS	IP	H/9	HR/9	BB/9	K/9	ERA
2012	19	RK	11	10	35.0	11.3	1.0	3.3	9.8	7.97
2012	19	A-	2	2	7.2	16.4	0.0	5.9	5.9	10.57
2012	19	A-	2	2	7.2	16.4	0.0	5.9	5.9	10.57

Norris famously fell to the fourth round and 74th overall pick in the 2011 draft because of his bonus demands, where the Blue Jays selected him and were able to convince him to sign for a $2 million bonus. Although that was half of what Norris was reportedly asking, it was still at that point the fourth highest bonus in franchise history. The southpaw had been named the best high school prospect by Perfect Game that year. He was also named Baseball America’s High School Pitcher of the Year in 2010 and won the Jackie Robinson Award the same year as the best high school player nationally. Prior to the draft, Baseball America named him the 16th-best draft-eligible prospect and Keith Law ranked him 33rd.

Norris stands 6’2” and weighs 210 pounds. His repertoire includes four pitches that he throws from a three-quarters arm angle. Norris’ main weapon is a fastball that can reach 96, but usually sits closer to 92. He also throws an inconsistent curveball that sits in the mid-70’s with tight spin but low velocity; a change-up that that can be deceptive and sits around 83 and a still-developing slider in the mid-80’s that is used mainly against right-handed batters. Prior to the draft, scouts were split about whether the curve or change-up was Norris’ second-best pitch, although they noted that his slider remained a work in progress.

One thing that may have caused teams to shy away from Norris and his bonus demands was that his delivery was inconsistent and caused him to have command issues. Although not uncommon among high school pitchers and although the minor league coaching staff has plenty of time to correct Norris’ flaws, some high school pitchers never make those adjustments.

Some of those issues were evident during Norris’ first season as a professional, which he spent entirely with Bluefield except for two starts with the Vancouver Canadians. Norris walked 18 batters over 42.2 innings. He surrendered 58 hits and struck out 43. He put up an 8.44 ERA on the year, but that’s not really important for Norris at this stage.

Norris sounds very humble in interviews and speaks of his determination to work hard and succeed. His makeup, including his passion for the sport, consistently garnered praise in pre-draft scouting reports. Prior to the season, he was rated the 93rd best prospect in the sport by Baseball America and although his season wasn’t particularly successful, his ceiling may allow him to sneak onto the back end of the Top 100 list again this offseason. He is one of the few arms in the system who has the upside of a true #1 or #2 starter.

8. DJ Davis | OF

Year	Age	Level	AB	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
2012	17	Rk	163	7	2	4	18	54	18	7	.233	.339	.374
2012	17	Rk	47	3	1	1	4	10	6	2	.340	.415	.511
2012	17	A-	18	0	0	0	5	6	1	1	.167	.348	.167

Ben Revere, Brett Gardner and Kenny Lofton - those are the names that have come up to describe the potential type of player the Blue Jays received with the 17th overall pick in the 2012 draft. In fact, Jays scouting director Andrew Tinnish labeled Davis as a Lofton-type with more power. Tinnish made that declaration after shaking his hand, "His hands are very big and very strong and I think that's a very good indicator for raw bat speed and power.” The Mississippi high school product, signed to a $1,750,000 bonus, was touted to be the fastest player in the draft, even faster than 2nd overall pick Byron Buxton, with scouts giving him an 80 on the traditional 20-80 scouting scale. Davis has been timed at 3.8 seconds running from home to first from the left side of the plate and at 6.4 seconds in the 60 yard-dash. Davis’ father Wayne played in the Jays minor league system from 1985-88 but his career was cut short due to a degenerative eye condition.

Davis told The Toronto Sun that he needs to work on swinging at pitches in the strike zone and how to get to ground balls in the gap. Davis is said to have excellent range in center field and gets a good jump on fly balls but he does not have the strongest arm. According to Gulf Coast League manager Omar Malave, Davis “has a nice, compact line drive swing…and will hit with occasional power. “ Baseball America, who rated Davis as the Gulf Coast League’s number three prospect, says he needs to work on using the lower half of his body in his swing and to improve his recognition of offspeed pitches.

Davis has shown the ability to draw a walk with 27 free passes in 266 plate appearances but he also struck out just over 27 percent of the time. He made three stops in the minor league system, getting promoted to Bluefield and Vancouver. He joined the Canadians in time for their playoff drive where he had his struggles with the bat. He was 0-for-10 with six strikeouts in the first two games of the Northwest League final against Boise but he bounced back with a 3-for-5 effort with a run scored in the third and final game to help the C’s defend its league title.

Though he advanced a pair of levels in 2012, Davis will probably get a bit more seasoning in Vancouver before climbing the minor league ladder in 2013. He will turn 19 on July 25.

7. Roberto Osuna | RHP

Year	Age	Level	G	GS	IP	H/9	HR/9	BB/9	K/9	ERA
2011	16	MEX	13	2	19.2	11.4	1.4	5.0	5.5	5.49
2012	17	RK	7	4	24.0	6.8	0.4	2.3	9.0	1.50
2012	17	A-	5	5	19.2	6.4	0.5	4.1	11.4	3.20

One of the most sought after international free agents to sign from the 2011 class, Osuna stepped right into short season ball and gave the Jays a glimpse of what could well be a very bright future. At just 17 years of age, but measuring 6'2" and 230 pounds, Osuna carved up the Appalachian League in just seven appearances. From there, he was promoted to Vancouver and debuted with one of the best performances of the Jays minor league season by striking out 13 in just five innings of work.

Osuna is still a little rough around the edges but that's hardly a knock on a guy who was pitching in Mexico's highest level at the age of 16. Featuring a low to mid 90s fastball with excellent swing-and-miss stuff, Osuna will likely spend the spring in Extended before making his 2013 debut with one of the short season teams. He's still a long ways away but given his age, stuff and results to date, it wouldn't be much of a surprise to see him move up a few notches come this time next year.

6. Adeiny Hechavarria | SS

Year	Age	Level	AB	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
2010	21	A+	161	7	3	1	5	25	7	0	.193	.217	.292
2010	21	AA	253	11	1	3	12	40	6	3	.273	.305	.360
2011	22	AA	464	22	6	6	25	78	19	13	.235	.275	.347
2011	22	AAA	108	6	2	2	8	21	1	2	.389	.431	.537
2012	23	AAA	443	20	6	6	38	86	8	2	.312	.363	.424
2012	23	MLB	126	8	0	2	4	32	0	0	.254	.280	.365

Hechavarria made his big league debut for the Blue Jays in 2012, just two years after signing a 4-year, $10 million contract as a free agent from Cuba. Lauded for his plus defence by scouts, he enjoyed his best minor league season yet with the bat and earned a berth in the Triple-A All-Star Game in Buffalo, the home of the Jays new Triple-A affiliate. He was also rated the 14th best prospect in the Pacific Coast League by Baseball America.

The 5-foot-11 right-handed hitting shortstop got the call to Toronto August 4 after Brett Lawrie hurt his oblique August 4. His first career hit came against Tampa Bay August 7. He was sent back down to Las Vegas August 25th when Yunel Escobar returned from paternity leave. His demotion lasted all of one day after Jose Bautista and David Cooper went to the disabled list. Two days after that, he belted his first home run off the New York Yankees Phil Hughes.

Hechavarria batted just .204 in August but came to life in September by hitting .292. However, he struck out over 23 percent of the time and drew a walk less than three percent of the time - a drop of nearly five percent from his walk rate in Las Vegas. Still, former Jays manager John Farrell praised the young Cuban for his improved plate discipline and his all-fields hitting approach late in the season.

Hechavarria also showed his versatility in the field by playing second base and third base in addition to short. Las Vegas manager Marty Brown says Hechavarria showed good instincts, range and anticipation when the ball is hit but Baseball America notes he has a tendency to flip his throws to first. He won the R. Howard Webster award as the Jays top minor leaguer in Las Vegas.

Hechavarria hopes to celebrate his 24th birthday April 15 by wearing a Jays uniform. That will depend on whether Escobar remains with the club along with any other off-season developments. The Jays would probably like to send Hechavarria back to Triple-A for a little more seasoning and see how he will fare in the more normalized hitting environment of Buffalo.

5. Justin Nicolino | LHP

Year	Age	Level	G	GS	IP	H/9	HR/9	BB/9	K/9	ERA
2011	19	A-	12	9	52.1	4.82	0.0	1.89	11.01	1.03
2011	19	A	3	3	8.2	11.42	0.0	2.08	9.35	3.12
2012	20	A	28	22	124.1	8.1	0.4	1.5	8.6	2.46

The lefty among the Lansing "Big 3", Nicolino is also widely considered to be the most polished and advanced of the three (though not the one with the highest ceiling). Ask a scout about Nicolino and it's not unusual to hear the name "Tom Glavine" mentioned, ask a Jays fan and the Jimmy Key comparisons come easily. The 6'3" Nicolino brings a fastball with plus movement and command and improving velocity (registering in the low 90's regularly with the potential for a tic or two more) as a compliment to a top-shelf change-up. He's working on a curve which has shown significant improvement. Like his rotation mates covered in this list, he's a lock to open 2013 in Dunedin, and of the three has a half-step (at least) lead in the race to be the first to AA.

It's not a crazy thing to suppose that if the circumstances worked in his favor, he could follow the footsteps of Drew Hutchison and leapfrog into a major league job very quickly, though certainly the team would hope that their upper level depth holds up a bit better than that this time around.

4. Jake Marisnick | OF

Year	Age	Level	AB	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
2010	19	R	122	12	0	3	13	18	14	1	.287	.373	.459
2010	19	A	127	8	2	1	9	37	9	2	.220	.298	.339
2011	20	A	462	26	7	14	43	91	37	8	.320	.392	.500
2012	21	A+	266	18	7	6	26	55	10	5	.263	.349	.451
2012	21	AA	223	11	3	2	11	45	14	4	.233	.286	.336

Jake Marisnick came into 2012 as one of the Jays top prospects and he is still considered a top prospect even after a challenging 2012. Marisnick started the season in Dunedin where he posted a wRC+ of 127 in the difficult hitting environment of the Florida State League. Marisnick was promoted to AA mid-season where his numbers fell off. Marisnick did not hit well, did not walk and did not hit for much power. He did not strike out a lot (20%) but he did not get good wood on the ball. The Jays said at the end of the season that they were working to make some changes to his swing. He was assigned to the Arizona Fall League to get him more at-bats against better pitching.

Marisnick has five tool potential. He is a very good centre-fielder with a strong arm. He can run and steal bases and he does have power potential in his bat. He just needs to start making better contact in AA.

Marisnick will return to AA for 2013 where he will turn 22 just as the season starts.

3. Noah Syndergaard | RHP

Year	Age	Level	G	GS	IP	H/9	HR/9	BB/9	K/9	ERA
2010	17	Rk	5	5	13.1	7.6	0.0	2.7	4.1	2.70
2011	18	A-	7	5	32.0	6.5	0.3	3.1	10.4	1.41
2011	18	A-	4	4	18.0	7.5	0.0	2.5	11.0	2.00
2011	18	A	2	2	9.0	8.0	0.0	2.0	9.0	3.00
2012	19	A	27	19	103.2	7.0	0.3	2.7	10.6	2.60

Noah Syndergaard was drafted with the compensation pick the Jays received for not signing James Paxton. Paxton has proven himself to be a fine prospect and should be appearing on Top 100 prospects this offseason alongside the player the Jays drafted as his replacement.

The 6’7” right-hander was thought of as a signable pick out of high school, but the 17-year-old power pitcher was clocked as high as 97 MPH in the months leading up to the draft. He pitched briefly in Rookie Ball in 2010 and Syndergaard started 2011 in extended spring training before throwing 59 innings across three levels, finishing the season in Lansing. Syndergaard pitched well everywhere, not allowing any homers, keeping his walk total relatively low and racking up the strikeouts.

In 2012 it was more of the same for Syndergaard. He spent the whole year in Lansing and continued to rack up strikeouts, maintain a respectable walk total and keep the ball in the ballpark. Syndergaard was part of the notorious tandem starter setup for the Lugnuts, and he made 19 starts and 8 relief appearances. He threw 103.2 IP, with a 2.60 ERA. He allowed 81 hits, 31 walks and struck out 122. The tall Texan has only allowed four homers in 176 professional innings.

Scouting reports on Syndergaard are impressive. Routinely clocking in the upper 90s, Syndergaard complements his heat with an already above-average curve and a developing change up. His delivery is described as easy and effortless, which can be rare in someone with his size and youth. It looks like he’ll spend next season in High-A, where the Jays will continue to protect what may the crown jewel of their elite low-minor league arms.

2. Aaron Sanchez | RHP

Year	Age	Level	G	GS	IP	H/9	HR/9	BB/9	K/9	ERA
2010	18	RK	8	8	19.0	9.0	0.5	5.7	13.3	1.42
2010	18	RK	2	2	6.0	6.0	0.0	7.5	13.5	4.50
2011	19	RK	11	6	42.2	9.6	0.9	3.8	9.1	5.48
2011	19	A-	3	3	11.2	6.2	0.0	6.2	10.0	4.63
2012	20	A	25	18	90.1	6.4	0.3	5.1	9.7	2.49

Two years after being scooped up early in the Supplemental First Round, Sanchez is, in many eyes, on the verge of being considered an elite prospect. While his results don't always match those of his rotation mates Justin Nicolino and Noah Syndergaard, scouts drool over Sanchez's mix of swing-and-miss fastball and complement of off-speed pitches.

Sanchez was brought along slowly in 2012, tandem starting and going anywhere from 3-5 innings each time out. And while he still has a tendency to allow too many free passes, he's virtually unhittable when around the plate and most observers feel his command needs refinement rather than an overhaul.

Sanchez will likely begin the 2013 season in the Dunedin rotation along with the other two-thirds of the "Lansing Trio". If things continue to click, Sanchez will be the favourite to head this list next year and could see the majors some time in the 2015 season.

1. Travis d'Arnaud | C

Year	Age	Level	AB	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
2008	19	A	64	5	0	2	5	10	0	0	.297	.357	.469
2009	19	A	482	38	1	13	41	75	8	4	.255	.319	.419
2010	20	A+	263	20	1	6	20	63	3	1	.259	.315	.411
2011	21	AA	424	33	1	21	33	100	4	2	.311	.371	.542
2012	22	AAA	279	21	2	16	10	59	1	1	.333	.380	.595

The 23-year-old catcher appeared in just 67 games at the triple-A level in 2012 before injuring his knee. The lost time shouldn't hurt because d'Arnaud was pretty much a finished product when the injury occurred. However, the organization is committed to incumbent backstop J.P. Arencibia, thanks in part to his rapport with the pitching staff, so d'Arnaud is likely headed back for a second tour of duty at the triple-A level. With the club looking to make significant upgrades during the off-season - according to comments from General Manager Alex Anthopoulos - d'Arnaud could also be trade bait as the club looks to make a splash (You have to give talent to get talent). The organization has further catching depth behind the prospect in the form of A.J. Jimenez and Santiago Nessy.

Posted by Gerry on Wednesday, October 31 2012 @ 05:32 AM EDT.

Blue Jays 2012 Top Prospects: 10-1 | 67 comments | Create New Account

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Lugnut Fan - Wednesday, October 31 2012 @ 06:19 AM EDT (#264984) #

One thing to add on Syndergaard and Nicolino is that both started throwing a slider in the second half of the season. Syndergaard's slider is actually very good and it has helped add some velocity to his curve ball. Nicolino's slider isn't as advanced as Noah's, but was something that he was focusing on during Instructs.

Chuck - Wednesday, October 31 2012 @ 06:39 AM EDT (#264985) #

Daniel Norris looks ready for any vampire attack.

Mike Green - Wednesday, October 31 2012 @ 09:43 AM EDT (#264987) #

Excellent job, gentlemen.

I have beaten the Syndergaard/Sanchez comparison to death, so let's just say that I don't agree. Frankly, I would probably have Nicolino ahead of Sanchez, as well.

MatO - Wednesday, October 31 2012 @ 09:58 AM EDT (#264990) #

A guy who didn't make the top 30 is part-timer Anthony Alford. He's had a pretty miserable freshman year as the main starting QB for Southern Mississippi. The team is 0-8 and Alford has a less than 50% completion percentage and has yet to throw a TD pass. If that wasn't bad enouhg his mother was arrested at a game for getting into a confrontation with a fan who was criticizing the play of her son. I wonder if the Jays won't have a full-time baseball player on their hands in the near future.

John Northey - Wednesday, October 31 2012 @ 10:29 AM EDT (#264993) #

As always a history lesson...

2011 top 10 - #1: Travis d'Arnaud C
2010 top 10 - #1: Kyle Drabek P
2009 top 10 - #1: Zach Stewart RHP
2008 top 10 - #1: Travis Snider OF
2007 top 10 - #1: Travis Snider OF
2006 top 10 - #1: Adam Lind OF
2005 top 10 - #1: Dustin McGowan RHP
2004 top 10 - #1: Aaron Hill SS

greenfrog - Wednesday, October 31 2012 @ 10:43 AM EDT (#264994) #

Considering how things have gone for Michael Taylor, Dominic Brown and Kyle Drabek (and some of the other Phillies prospects mentioned at the time), AA has to be happy that he managed to get d"Arnaud (and, indirectly, Gose) in the Halladay trade.

Mike Green - Wednesday, October 31 2012 @ 10:52 AM EDT (#264995) #

If that wasn't bad enouhg his mother was arrested at a game for getting into a confrontation with a fan who was criticizing the play of her son. I wonder if the Jays won't have a full-time baseball player on their hands in the near future.

The club will have to offer a course though, "The Baseball Parent", with at least two registrants now.

eldarion - Wednesday, October 31 2012 @ 10:56 AM EDT (#264996) #

A hearty thanks to all of the Battersbox contributors to these pieces; they're always informative and interesting.

I really hope that AA trades Arencibia before D'Arnaud; it's not that I have the rose-coloured prospect lenses on...it's that I don't think that Arencibia's plus power tool makes up for his average defence and lousy hit tool. I get that he's a fun guy and well liked in the clubhouse but likability alone doesn't win championships.

Final note: I'll be really happy if AA can avoid trading one of the Lansing Three this off-season.

vonwafer234 - Wednesday, October 31 2012 @ 11:23 AM EDT (#264998) #

I'm really excited to see what DJ Davis will do next season with a year under his belt. If this kid truly does have Billy Hamilton speed, WATCH OUT!

bpoz - Wednesday, October 31 2012 @ 11:29 AM EDT (#264999) #

Thanks Guys. So far only happy thoughts on 1-10. Great.

MatO - Wednesday, October 31 2012 @ 11:48 AM EDT (#265002) #

The club will have to offer a course though, "The Baseball Parent", with at least two registrants now.

Apparently she was tossed from one of her son's HS baseball games as well so she's a serial offender.

acepinball - Wednesday, October 31 2012 @ 11:50 AM EDT (#265003) #

Very excellent work, as always, Batter's Box writers. As good a time as any to commend your work as by far the finest writing on the up-and-comers for the Blue Jays and the system as a whole.

Just wondering where Tony Gose would have ranked had he not burned his eligibility?

I'll also agree that things seem a little bleaker in the system compared to last year. But if you project ahead to next year, it's entirely conceivable that the MLB club will have an improved rotation, Buffalo will have the injured pitchers returning and getting a much needed AAA stint that wasn't available the last few seasons (Hutchison, Drabek, maybe Alvarez) as well as current Fisher Cats McGuire (?) and Nolin. Meantime, the big 3 and Stroman could progress to AA which begins to create a logjam of exciting young starting arms. All without depleting the lower level minors with Osuna, Cardona, Norris, Smoral.

Not to mention a top 10 pick. Things could get very promising quickly.

John Northey - Wednesday, October 31 2012 @ 12:12 PM EDT (#265004) #

Odd - just 4 guys in the top 10 played A+ or higher last year at any point (I see A+ as the level a guy can reach the majors from in under 1 year). Not too many top 10's who are ML ready which suggests a weaker system I'd think (guys miles away shouldn't be your top prospects). Seems low, but is it?

2011: 6 at A+ or higher
2010: 8
2009: 7
2008: 7
2007: 3
2006: 8 (2 low ones were Snider & Chi-hung Cheng)
2005: 10
2004: 9 (Purcey the lone exception)

Hmm... seems my assumption might be backwards. Who was there in 2007 when the top were all lower? Rzep, Ricky Romero, Cecil, Snider all made it to various degrees. 2005 with no low guys Marcum, Romero, Lind, Janssen, McGowan. No real clear line there I'd say - interesting that both groups have Ricky Romero though.

joeblow - Wednesday, October 31 2012 @ 12:49 PM EDT (#265005) #

If anyone has seen both in action, i'm curious why Sanchez ranks above Syndergaard?

To me, Sanchez is the one most likely of the big 3 to be traded this offseason.

eldarion - Wednesday, October 31 2012 @ 01:23 PM EDT (#265006) #

Wasn't AA once rumoured to have said he considers Sanchez to be his best prospect? I could be wrong. Something about someone having been at a party and having asked him outright.

In any case, I think AA's first plan of attack will be trying to trade Escobar and Arencibia (hopefully) for some starting pitching. If he can get a #3 and #4 from those trades, then the team will be far better off going forward in terms of not pushing their young pitchers to the big leagues prematurely a la Hutchison. Not that he crashed and burned but he probably could have used more time.

92-93 - Wednesday, October 31 2012 @ 01:27 PM EDT (#265008) #

Sanchez has better command and feel for a breaking ball than Syndergaard.

It's hard to look at Nicolino and get very excited having followed Cecil's career since he was drafted with "mid-90's velocity" and a "major league pitch right now" in his slider. I wouldn't hesitate to include Nicolino in a deal this offseason for the right piece.

92-93 - Wednesday, October 31 2012 @ 01:34 PM EDT (#265009) #

"In any case, I think AA's first plan of attack will be trying to trade Escobar and Arencibia (hopefully) for some starting pitching. If he can get a #3 and #4 from those trades, then the team will be far better off going forward in terms of not pushing their young pitchers to the big leagues prematurely a la Hutchison."

If all he can get for Escobar and Arencibia is mid to back end starters he shouldn't bother, unless by a #3 you mean someone of Ricky Romero's ilk. It's one thing to move the hacking slugger Arencibia knowing the dropoff to Mathis isn't enormous with a consensus top prospect in d'Arnaud around the corner. It's another thing for a free swinging, low OBP team to move an excellent defensive SS on a great contract whose primary offensive skill is getting on base when his backup is known only for his glove and his bat has serious questions as to whether it can handle an everyday job in an AL lineup. Selling low on Escobar because of the eyeblack incident is very likely to be a terrible mistake and would seem to be the opposite of the sort of moves AA has been making since he arrived.

I'm very interested to see what sort of value Haren & Santana bring back and which teams are willing to pay.

eldarion - Wednesday, October 31 2012 @ 01:39 PM EDT (#265010) #

Agreed! The Haren and Santana situations bear close watching.

For me, I just don't see Escobar as a premiere defensive shortstop...he's good but I think Hechavarria is likely to be better. And provided the money saved on his trade is allocated appropriate to another acquisition, then I'm fine with trading him.

Gerry - Wednesday, October 31 2012 @ 02:22 PM EDT (#265011) #

Not only does Sanchez have better command and feel for his breaking ball, the pitch itself is better. Sanchez's ceiling is higher because of that. Syndergaard is able to command his fastball better, particularly down in the zone and is probably more likely to have a major league career than Sanchez.

So if you grade on potential Sanchez is higher. If you grade based on likely ultimate value, Syndergaard could be ranked higher. It's very close right now and if one of them is traded half the fans will think AA traded the wrong guy.

TamRa - Wednesday, October 31 2012 @ 02:34 PM EDT (#265012) #

I don't get why anyone would default to Cecil as a comp for Nicolino except morbid pessimisim. There are plenty of good left handed comps past/present without resorting to Cecil for no apparent reason.

They aren't physically similar, their stuff isn't similar, their history isn't similar.

In fact - other than being left handed, they are pretty much nothing alike.

Mike Green - Wednesday, October 31 2012 @ 02:37 PM EDT (#265013) #

hypobole - Wednesday, October 31 2012 @ 02:40 PM EDT (#265014) #

"It's hard to look at Nicolino and get very excited having followed Cecil's career"

Agreed that when one thinks of Nicolino, excitement doesn't come to mind, but Cecil is a poor comp. Cecil's major undoing, even more than his loss of velocity, is his lack of command, especially his inability to keep the ball down in the strike zone. Nicolino's major strength is plus command.

Beyonder - Wednesday, October 31 2012 @ 02:51 PM EDT (#265016) #

I think that's right 92-93. Apart from Aaron Hill, it is not AA's M.O. to sell low on an asset. Escobar certainly falls into that category, and to a lesser extent JPA. If you were going to sell high and make a splash, D'Arnaud is the more likely candidate to be dealt.

The Molina/Santos deal gives me some comfort that if AA does decide to deal one of the Lansing three (or D'Arnaud) -- he'll pick the right one.

92-93 - Wednesday, October 31 2012 @ 03:05 PM EDT (#265017) #

Since my point was apparently poorly made the first time, I'll try again. I was really excited about Cecil based on all the draft reports. He was a first round LHP with an MLB-ready slider and a mid-90s fastball, 3 components that tend to make one a top prospect. He's amounted to very little, and unless he can magically turn himself into Cliff Lee he's a replacement level player. Nicolino, on the other hand, doesn't even have those attributes. He only throws in the low 90s and relies on command to succeed, a formula that works well in Low-A but way more often than not starts getting exposed as one climbs the ladder. It's therefore hard for me to get excited about Nicolino as a prospect when the prospects reports are indicating to me his ceiling is that of a Shaun Marcum, a control artist who gets by with command of a fastball that can move a bit and a really good changeup. I was not trying to comp them at all.

Ryan Day - Wednesday, October 31 2012 @ 03:09 PM EDT (#265018) #

The problem with the concept of "selling low" is that it presumes a knowledge of the future. If Escobar bounces back to career norms, then selling him now would certainly be considered selling low, even aside from the part where he writes homophobic slurs on his face. But it's also possible that Escobar has lost it, for whatever reason, and his value will only go down from here.

See also: Rasmus, Colby, who was a widely-acclaimed "buy low" acquisition last year who would likely bring less in a trade now than a year ago.

greenfrog - Wednesday, October 31 2012 @ 03:22 PM EDT (#265019) #

Nicolino may or may not turn out to be a good ML pitcher, but I don't see how his having some similarities to Cecil is a big deal. Should every prospect who resembles Cecil be automatically downgraded to marginal status? Are there successful ML pitchers with profiles similar to either Nicolino or Cecil? Definitely. I get that Cecil has been a disappointment to date (with the exception of 2010), but that doesn't mean Nicolino is fated to follow the same trajectory. It's just one comp.

Beyonder - Wednesday, October 31 2012 @ 03:28 PM EDT (#265020) #

The only presumption about the future I would make about Escobar is that this time next year he will have put a year's distance between himself and the eye-black incident. That alone will rehabilitate his market value to some extent.

Of course, "selling high", and selling in general presumes knowledge of the future as well.

Lugnut Fan - Wednesday, October 31 2012 @ 03:43 PM EDT (#265021) #

Ahhhh, I love the debate in how to rank the Lansing 3. Having seen them multiple times, I think the box got the rankings correct. Nicolino is the most polished, but his upside is probably that of a middle to back end of the rotation starter. He is a crafty lefty and although I love his stuff, I would rank Syndergaard and Sanchez ahead of him. Nicolino's change up is very much a plus pitch and is his bread and butter.

As far as Sanchez and Syndergaard, they are similar guys, but I would rank Sanchez ahead of Syndergaard. His stuff is just nastier. Sanchez is the one guy I wouldn't let go. His curve ball is good, has a decent change up and his fastball, when it is low in the zone, is devistating.

Of the three, I would personally trade Syndergaard if I had to trade one of the three. The development of his CB, while it got better, is still a big question mark and if he can't develop that pitch, I think he turns into a guy that may be in a bullpen. Initially in the season, he routinely hit 95 to 96 on his FB and threw his CB at 68-70. The differential was just to great and talking with Vince Horsman at the end of the year, they introduced him to the slider because there was / is some concern that the curveball may never come with Noah. The slider did improve his CB last year as he was throwing it in the mid 70's by seasons end, but it was still an inconsistent pitch. When his CB is on and everythign is working, he is as good as it gets, but I see him ultimately as having two good pitches and that is FB and SL.

jgadfly - Wednesday, October 31 2012 @ 03:44 PM EDT (#265022) #

Hitting ... more misses than hits
There has to be a cliff somewhere with a huge collection of high priced Blue Jay hitting prospects at the bottom of it ... whether they were thrown or jumped should be determined ... perhaps a review of their hitting coaches should be Job # 1 ... perhaps their coaches should join them ?
How do Crouse(2011's #19), Knecht (11's #15), Anderson (11's #24), Thon (11's #28), Arce (11's # 29) all disappear from the Top 30 while Marisnik and Hawkins regress ? Where did Sweeney & Dean disappear to, not to mention IFA's Pierre, Balbuena, Cenas, et al as well as last years IFA's class led by Lugo (hardly stellar), likewise the hardly hitting wise, stellar former MLB progeny Smith & Davis ...
Given the success of acquiring pitching prospect depth, how could the Jays' scouting have been so far off base with their hitting prospects or does the problem lie with the numbers ?

92-93 - Wednesday, October 31 2012 @ 03:53 PM EDT (#265023) #

"but I don't see how his having some similarities to Cecil is a big deal. Should every prospect who resembles Cecil be automatically downgraded to marginal status?"

Well, he doesn't have many similarities to Cecil, which is actually kind of the problem. So yes, I think every prospect who can be considered inferior to what Cecil was should be downgraded to marginal status, and I would not have had Nicolino in my top 10. Doing a quick browse I'm pretty sure I'd trade Nicolino straight up for the 6-18th ranked BB prospects. A team that can't spend on the FA market needs as much upside as it can get.

Mike Green - Wednesday, October 31 2012 @ 03:58 PM EDT (#265024) #

Nicolino's ceiling is probably Tom Glavine, Jimmy Key...

greenfrog - Wednesday, October 31 2012 @ 04:03 PM EDT (#265025) #

every prospect who can be considered inferior to what Cecil was should be downgraded to marginal status

Career in the minors, Brett Cecil walked 2.7 and struck out 8.3 per 9 innings, while allowing 8.6 hits and 0.6 HR per 9 innings.

In his career, Nicolino has walked 1.7 and struck out 9.3 per 9 innings, while allowing 7.3 hits and 0.3 HR per 9 innings.

It sounds as though you might be getting the words "inferior" and "superior" confused.

China fan - Wednesday, October 31 2012 @ 04:22 PM EDT (#265026) #

People keep referring to the eyeblack incident as a factor in Escobar's future. I really don't see it. It's over and done with. He's paid his penance, he's had his required meetings with the gay athletes, he's been "re-educated." Time to move forward. If he's traded, it's because the Jays have concluded that some combination of Hech and Aviles can replace him adequately in 2013.

Of course the Jays shouldn't trade Escobar at the bottom of his perceived value, but I don't think the eyeblack incident has any impact on his perceived value. His value is determined by his predicted performance in the future. Was 2012 an outlier season? Or a predictor of his likely future performance? Everyone has an opinion, but he'll have a much lower value if he doesn't bounce back in 2013, so trading him now could actually be a "sell-high" move. GMs today can still remember his great season in 2011. A year from now, his 2011 numbers could be nearly forgotten, and his value could plummet.

Mike Green - Wednesday, October 31 2012 @ 04:23 PM EDT (#265027) #

Comparing Cecil (or Key) to Nicolino is tough. Nicolino did pretty much the same thing at age 19 in the Northwest League as Cecil did at age 20/21 in the NYPL. The following year, the summer that Cecil turned 22, he was in double A and striking out 10 batters per game. When Jimmy Key turned 22, he was also in double A and striking out 5 per game (while walking over 3). Some movies have happy endings...

MatO - Wednesday, October 31 2012 @ 04:48 PM EDT (#265028) #

Nicolino throws plenty hard enough. Low 90's is above average for a lefty. His current fastball velocity will be the least of his issues in determining if he gets to the majors.

greenfrog - Wednesday, October 31 2012 @ 04:48 PM EDT (#265029) #

The thing about Cecil is that he's never really fine-tuned his control, with the exception of his six starts in Vegas this year. Nicolino has had outstanding control from the get-go, and it got even better in 2012 (1.5 BB / 9 IP). Not saying the lack of stuff won't be an issue going forward, but when it comes to control (command?), it's clearly advantage Nicolino.

Krylian19 - Wednesday, October 31 2012 @ 04:52 PM EDT (#265030) #

DJ Davis will turn 19 on July 25th, not 20 on June 27th.

John Northey - Wednesday, October 31 2012 @ 05:03 PM EDT (#265032) #

Fixed Davis' stats via Baseball Reference. This was his age 17 season - sweet to cover all of the short season levels at that age. I suspect he'll be at SS at 18 next year, then full season by 19 which is fantastic. He was on pace, with 25 steals, for 63 over 150 games and is just learning how to steal I suspect. Lets hope he does well as I love having speed demons on the team. More fun to watch, although I do know that they don't add a ton of value unless they steal at a Tim Raines level of efficiency.

soupman - Wednesday, October 31 2012 @ 05:07 PM EDT (#265033) #

You should expect a fair degree of movement on this list before next April. Some of these prospects will almost certainly disappear in trades – the Jays have clear needs at the major-league level and, for the first time in a long time, have the wherewithal to help acquire it. Prospects also get hurt, especially those who pitch for a living, so it’s a good thing the Jays have a surfeit of them. There’s also minor-league free agency and the Rule 5 Draft to consider. The Jays have a lot of players of interest and only 40 spots with which to protect them; some of these guys will be snatched up by other teams. But that’s the price of a healthy farm system, something that the Blue Jays unquestionably now possess.
-2004

I stopped watching baseball after the strike, and didn't return much of my attention until 2005, so I wasn't following developments on the farm during this time at all. I don't remember what it "felt" like - but reading the 2004 report has got me worried that what we're experiencing is "deja vu all over again". Maybe I'm just in a cynical mood today - can anyone speak to how their impressions of the system now (with a system that appears to have far more depth, especially in pitching) compare to 2-3 years into JP Ricciardi's tenure?

China fan - Wednesday, October 31 2012 @ 06:11 PM EDT (#265035) #

The Jays have declined Rajai Davis's option, but signed him to a one-year $2.5-million contract, which is slightly more in line with his value. And they have picked up Oliver's $3-million option. Does this mean that Oliver is not retiring? Or is it just a technicality as they await his decision on whether to retire?

China fan - Wednesday, October 31 2012 @ 06:20 PM EDT (#265037) #

Okay, further information is trickling in: Oliver's return is still unknown, according to the Jays. If he returns, he'll get $3-million. So the renewal of his option today was just a technicality, indicating that the Jays will pay him $3-million if he decides not to retire, which we already assumed.

As for Davis: his new $2.5-million salary is not guaranteed (unlike the $3-million option), so he could still be cut in spring training or thereafter if the Jays decide they have better options in the outfield and the bench.

metafour - Wednesday, October 31 2012 @ 06:54 PM EDT (#265040) #

It's hard to look at Nicolino and get very excited having followed Cecil's career since he was drafted with "mid-90's velocity" and a "major league pitch right now" in his slider.

Lets remember that Cecil was drafted as a reliever and his velocity dropped as soon as he began starting games. I dont think he was ever throwing "mid 90's" in the minors for the Jays coming up. The pre-draft "plus" slider also never materialized, as by the time he got up to the majors he was actually throwing a curveball, and his changeup became his best secondary pitch. Cecil is really a guy who's stuff declined...or was extremely overrated from the get go.

metafour - Wednesday, October 31 2012 @ 06:58 PM EDT (#265041) #

eldarion - Wednesday, October 31 2012 @ 07:37 PM EDT (#265044) #

Hold the phone - Davis was how young when he competed at three levels this year?! Wow. That's really impressive. Actually, really, really impressive. I thought what Osuna had done was terrific but that might be better.

Waveburner - Wednesday, October 31 2012 @ 08:12 PM EDT (#265045) #

First, I just want to say thanks to all the writers for their hard work. Batters Box remains my favourite sports site on the net for content.

To quibble with the latter part of the list (21-30), I'm a little surprised pure org guys like Avendano and particularly Walden made the list over more highly regarded players. I sort of get it with Avendano with the K's, but every scouting report I have read has been unflattering. He seems to be a guy using a good breaking ball to dominate low A ball hitters and is pegged as a bullpen arm. I know Deck McGuire had an awful year, but I'd still take him over Walden and Avendano. It's just nitpicking though, no biggie.

Question for Gerry-do you know what the injuries were to Kevin Nolan and Peter Mooney? Thanks.

grjas - Wednesday, October 31 2012 @ 08:14 PM EDT (#265046) #

I really hope that AA trades Arencibia before D'Arnaud

Would rather they didn't trade a catcher at all. The team has not had a lot of success at the position over the years, and injuries set in fast. Would rather trade one of the CF's in the majors or minors. We have rasmus, gose and marsnick, all with in 4 years of each other. Surely we can part with one (would prefer it's not gose). Of course none of them really had stellar years which ain't great for trade value.

Gerry - Wednesday, October 31 2012 @ 08:26 PM EDT (#265047) #

I don't know what happened to Mooney. Kevin Nolan had a bad hamstring strain, bad enough to shut him down for the second half of the season.

McNulty - Wednesday, October 31 2012 @ 08:52 PM EDT (#265048) #

Soupman: This is only my take........

I think the general consensus amongst scouts and writers is that the Blue Jays do indeed have a quality farm system in 2012. There is definitely value to having your system highly regarded by those outside of your organization.
As of today, its reasonable to expect that virtually any of their top 10 prospects could be significant piece in a trade to acquire help at the ML level.

In 2004/2005 the Jays, despite their own belief that they had a strong system, could not expect the same. Their pitching prospects had significant "issues", (McGowan had a history of arm trouble, so did Rosario) and those who did not (Vermilyea, Banks) were considered safer college picks that the Jays could get to the majors quicker. In short, the Jays were high on "their" guys, but few others were. Certainly this philosophy has worked for some teams, but for the Jays it had mixed results.

I think we can safely say that in 2012, we're better off in terms of prospects.

greenfrog - Wednesday, October 31 2012 @ 09:18 PM EDT (#265049) #

I really like reading these writeups. A lot of similarities with my own rankings, but there are a few noticeable differences:

- No Alford (I have him at #17)

- No Barreto (I have him at #18)

- No DeSclafani or Ybarra (I had them in the mid-20s)

Here is my own (somewhat fickle and no doubt idiosyncratic) top 20:

1. d'Arnaud
2. Sanchez
3. Syndergaard
4. Nicolino
5. Gose
6. Marisnick
7. Hechavarria
8. Stroman
9. Davis
10. Osuna

11. Norris
12. Smoral
13. Jimenez
14. Nolin
15. Nessy
16. DeJong
17. Alford
18. Barreto
19. Tirado
20. Lopes

TamRa - Thursday, November 01 2012 @ 12:27 AM EDT (#265050) #

To quibble with the latter part of the list (21-30), I'm a little surprised pure org guys like Avendano and particularly Walden made the list over more highly regarded players.

One of the quirks of this sort of consensus "poll" ranking is that occasionally you can have a guy make the bottom of the list because one or two voter(s) was particularly high on him. Not to get into the weeds of the "internals" of this list, but just noting that as a general observation regarding the bottom of the list. I don't think I'm revealing too much to say that only 2 points separated McGuire and Avendano.

I do agree with you though, while none of the three you mentioned is in my own top 30 (nor is Jenkins, BTW) I do have the two first rounders well ahead of the other two. in fact, on my own personal spreadsheet, Walden isn't in the top 50.

TamRa - Thursday, November 01 2012 @ 03:24 AM EDT (#265052) #

Also, I'm kind of flabbergasted as to how Alford doesn't even crack the Top 30. Yes there are serious concerns as to whether he even sticks to baseball, you're talking about a legitimate first round talent. From all indications the Jays actually wanted to draft him at #17 (given he gave up football) but were told not to.

If he had signed to play baseball exclusively, I'd have ranked him in the 8-12 range (I think most of us would have) instead of 31 (which is where I have him on my personal spreadsheet). The minute he walks away from football he shoots up the list.

TamRa - Thursday, November 01 2012 @ 04:17 AM EDT (#265053) #

Since my point was apparently poorly made the first time, I'll try again.

Acknowledged.

I was really excited about Cecil based on all the draft reports. He was a first round LHP with an MLB-ready slider and a mid-90s fastball, 3 components that tend to make one a top prospect.

I was excited about him too, albeit the atributes you describe were the atriburtes of a reliever and were always going to be modified as a starter. Perhaps you remember the posts i made when he was in the high minors noting that his results were comperable to the considerably more talented David Price's minor league track record? The thing is - Cecil WAS a Top prospect and, for inexplicable reasons - has failed to fulfill that promise. that does NOT mean that those who's track record was not as good as his will likewise struggle to blossom. Are not major league rosters RIFE with highly touted (and successful in the minors) major league prospects who were ordinary or worse, for whatever reason, once they reached the majors? At least in the first few years of their career?

Snder? Rasmus? Heck, how long did it take Chris Carpenter to turn into the guy we were looking for? None of this is to say Cecil will, in fact, pull a Cliff Lee type turnaround (I tend to doubt it, though he may be Scott Downs someday if things go well for him) but rather to note the obvious: that minor league statistical performance does not serve as the only or even main indicator of future major league success. As someone else noted in reply to this post, compare the minor league stats of Cecil and Key and tell me who should, based on that alone, have had the better career.

He's amounted to very little, and unless he can magically turn himself into Cliff Lee he's a replacement level player. Nicolino, on the other hand, doesn't even have those attributes. He only throws in the low 90s and relies on command to succeed, a formula that works well in Low-A but way more often than not starts getting exposed as one climbs the ladder.

Cecil's velocity AS A STARTER was never any higher than Nicolino's is now and there's an opinion that Nicolino may yet add a couple of tics (he's still young). Plus, his command is better than Cecil's ever was as a pro. Note for reference the statistical comparison posted in this thread which illustrates that Nicolino out-preforms Cecil's record on EVERY rate state commonly used to measure pitcher results.

It's therefore hard for me to get excited about Nicolino as a prospect when the prospects reports are indicating to me his ceiling is that of a Shaun Marcum, a control artist who gets by with command of a fastball that can move a bit and a really good changeup. I was not trying to comp them at all.

You know Shaun Marcum turned out to be a BETTER pitcher, by a wide margin, than Cecil has so far - right? Nevermind that if Marcum were just as good as he is now, and left handed, he'd be regarded even more highly than he is at the moment. Oh, and that the only knock against Marcum of any consequence is that he seems to get hurt a bit much - which is NOT apparent in Nicolino so far.

Is Marcum an Ace? of course not. Professional evaluators will tell you that it would be generous to assert there are as many as 10 aces in the entire major leagues. Marcum IS, however, a perfectly fine mid-rotation starter - and if the Jays get that out of Nicolino, they (and we) will be very pleased indeed. I guarantee you they (and we) wish we could have gotten that out of Cecil.

TamRa - Thursday, November 01 2012 @ 04:30 AM EDT (#265054) #

I won't repeat myself too much, but the other issue with Sanchez is durability. He's got a slight frame, faded a lot later in the year and didn't start at all in the playoffs. He is 20 years old, so it is not as though this is the end of the world, but the balance between Syndergaard v. Sanchez comes to control/durability/good stuff vs. poorer control/less durability/better stuff.

I'm not in a position to dig into this tonight, if ever, but I'd love to see some of the wiser heads here look into the extent to which the "Big Hoss v. more slender guy" theme creates a comparison between Syndergaard/Sanchez and Cain/Lincicum.

On the surface, it doesn't work. Per BR, Syndergaard has ONE inch and TEN pounds on Sanchez. (who, by the way, has one inch and THIRTY pounds on Nicolino)

By contrast, Can has 4 inches and 55 pounds on Lincicum. Perhaps there are better comparisons.

But, in any case, visuals aside - according to the official stats, Syndergarrd is not THAT much bigger and thicker than Sanchez.

Lugnut Fan - Thursday, November 01 2012 @ 07:58 AM EDT (#265055) #

"Also, I'm kind of flabbergasted as to how Alford doesn't even crack the Top 30. Yes there are serious concerns as to whether he even sticks to baseball, you're talking about a legitimate first round talent. From all indications the Jays actually wanted to draft him at #17 (given he gave up football) but were told not to.

If he had signed to play baseball exclusively, I'd have ranked him in the 8-12 range (I think most of us would have) instead of 31 (which is where I have him on my personal spreadsheet). The minute he walks away from football he shoots up the list."

I agree with Tamra on this. From what I have heard asking around with scouts this past summer, they said Alford was a sure fire first rounder if he didn't play football. My concern with Alford is his commitment to baseball. I had read an interview that he gave to his home town newspaper right after he left the GCL and was preparing for football in mid / late July and he had made a statement that indicated he wasn't intending to return to baseball until May. Presumably this is so he can participate in spring practice for football

He will miss all of ST, which I'm presuming means he will be in extended (he may have anyway), but when short season assignments come out, he may only play a couple of weeks and then it is back to football. I don't know how much he can develop if he only intends to play a month or two a year.

greenfrog - Thursday, November 01 2012 @ 08:25 AM EDT (#265056) #

I agree. I see two ways to rank Alford: (1) warts and all (skills plus raw talent/atheticism plus football commitment plus impact of reduced baseball development time), or (2) Tamra's two-tier system, giving him a current low ranking with the proviso that he skyrockets upwards if he commits to baseball full-time.

Imperfect as it is, I prefer the first way, because I like each ranking I do to be in "real time," that is, a snapshot of how would I rank the player today based on all the information I currently have. It's sort of like giving each prospect a tangible dollar value so that I know, more or less, what I would currently trade him for on the open market. Thus, ranking him at #31 seems artificially low, because there is no way I trade Alford for the equivalent of, say, Avendano, Pompey or McDade. For me, #17 seemed the right balance of the factors I mentioned (it might still be a bit low).

Similarly, I had Barreto at #18, as I wouldn't "trade" him for anyone ranked #19-30.

But I get the logic behind Tamra's approach too, as it gives a "true" ranking of the players she is certain will be playing baseball for the organization going forward.

John Northey - Thursday, November 01 2012 @ 09:23 AM EDT (#265057) #

Organization rankings via other sources (Baseball-Prospectus, Baseball America to name two) are always interesting and give a non-biased view.

Both do rankings in March
2012: BP: #2, BA: #5
2011: BP: #5, BA: #4
2010: BP: #22, BA: #19
2009: BP: #10, BA: #19 (Snider, JPA)
2008: BP: #24, BA: #25
2007: BP: #20, BA: #26
No rankings I can find from BP pre-2007.
2006: BA: #25
2005: BA: #15
2004: BA: #8

Having trouble finding older rankings than that. Up until I found 2004's I thought 'OK - Jays never ranked highly during JPA's years' then I hit 2004 with a top 10 ranking. Oops. The kids who were there for that spring ranking? Top 100's of Baseball America included #6 Alex Rios OF, #18 Dustin McGowan rhp, #35 Guillermo Quiroz c, #72 Gabe Gross of, #87 Francisco Rosario rhp, #96 Aaron Hill SS A lot of talent there, so I guess I can see why they ranked so high that year. Just McGowan, Werth, and Jason Arnold were top 100's the year before, while Josh Phelps, Werth, Gross, Hudson, and McGowan ranked in the pre-2002 list.

Seems Ash left overs kept the system strong, along with Aaron Hill and a couple of other guys JPA drafted, but not a lot of his draft picks did well (low ceiling types).

soupman - Thursday, November 01 2012 @ 09:31 AM EDT (#265058) #

In short, the Jays were high on "their" guys, but few others were. Certainly this philosophy has worked for some teams, but for the Jays it had mixed results.

I think we can safely say that in 2012, we're better off in terms of prospects.

That's what i wanted to hear! heh.

I'm curious as to what you mean when you say: "this philosophy has worked for some teams" but not the jays - are you referring to the strategy of drating college arms? I ask because, initially i was thinking: some prospects just come out of nowhere- like lance lynn this year, and then you have guys like molina or zack stewart, that the jays traded, who were never guys i could really get excited about, and i wondered if part of having guys "come out of nowhere" was related to how a team portrays or hypes its own prospects? one of the things that i've always appreciated about the 'box, is that i feel there's a nice community of people who spend time watchign the farm teams who have an excellent sense of who is "putting it together", often times before a scouting consensus, or the boxscores are suggesting the same. so, i'm leaning towards the JPR draft interpretation, but wasn't sure!

92-93 - Thursday, November 01 2012 @ 11:55 AM EDT (#265063) #

Perhaps you remember the posts i made when he was in the high minors noting that his results were comperable to the considerably more talented David Price's minor league track record?

Of course. I enjoy reading your attempts at showing why the Jays are as good as the Rays every year.

Cecil WAS a Top prospect and, for inexplicable reasons - has failed to fulfill that promise. that does NOT mean that those who's track record was not as good as his will likewise struggle to blossom. Are not major league rosters RIFE with highly touted (and successful in the minors) major league prospects who were ordinary or worse, for whatever reason, once they reached the majors? At least in the first few years of their career?

Sure. And there's tons of unheralded prospects who becomes very good MLB players. But better prospects become better players more often, and that's why they are considered more valuable than inferior prospets. Cecil was a better prospect than Nicolino.

but rather to note the obvious: that minor league statistical performance does not serve as the only or even main indicator of future major league success. As someone else noted in reply to this post, compare the minor league stats of Cecil and Key and tell me who should, based on that alone, have had the better career.

I've never mentioned stats once, so I'm not really sure why they are being used to try showing Cecil vs. Nicolino when it has nothing to do with my point. Minor league stats are pretty much irrelevant.

Oh, and that the only knock against Marcum of any consequence is that he seems to get hurt a bit much - which is NOT apparent in Nicolino so far.

The other knock is that his 86mph fastball looks like a cookie if he isn't cutting it. And Marcum had little injury history coming up through the minors.

Is Marcum an Ace? of course not. Professional evaluators will tell you that it would be generous to assert there are as many as 10 aces in the entire major leagues. Marcum IS, however, a perfectly fine mid-rotation starter - and if the Jays get that out of Nicolino, they (and we) will be very pleased indeed. I guarantee you they (and we) wish we could have gotten that out of Cecil.

I'm very aware that if Nicolino turns into Marcum the Jays would be thrilled, but when you mention a player's ceiling, that's their best case scenario. Every player considered a prospect has a ceiling of that of a 3-4 WAR player, otherwise they wouldn't be prospects, so what you're saying is more than just obvious; it's irrelevant. When a pitcher sits 89-92 with his fastball and it doesn't really project to ever be much more there isn't a lot of margin for error.

You can all feel free to be excited about Justin Nicolino based on these scouting reports. I'm not.

92-93 - Thursday, November 01 2012 @ 12:03 PM EDT (#265065) #

Greenfrog, that's the problem with all these lists; knowing how to balance the probability of providing MLB value with ceiling.

Dr B - Thursday, November 01 2012 @ 03:02 PM EDT (#265073) #

Of course. I enjoy reading your attempts at showing why the Jays are as good as the Rays every year.

I enjoy TamRa's writing too. It sure beats the sarcasm and negativity we get round here sometimes.

bpoz - Thursday, November 01 2012 @ 06:28 PM EDT (#265077) #

I understand this argument fully. LHR that become starters cannot succeed long term. Key was a starter, then reliever and then starter again.
Cecil could not succeed as a starter long term. Was not David Bush a college reliever.
Bottom line if Kenny Williams (thankfully not GM any more) were to offer C Sale to us I would not pay any more than our 21-30 prospect. Even then I would be wary.

McNulty - Friday, November 02 2012 @ 03:40 AM EDT (#265083) #

Soupman:

You'd get a more detailed answer from Mike Green, Magpie, or some of the other guys who've been here forever (although I've been here since the days of Coach) but yeah, the JPR regime was what I was alluding to. My answer was based on opinion. I would elaborate a bit more, but I don't want to re-open a debate that's been beaten more than a rented mule. Only time will tell if AA's drafts were better than JPR's. All I was saying is that generally, the scouts and writers have held the farm system in higher stead under AA than at any time under his predecessor.

#2JBrumfield - Friday, November 02 2012 @ 01:16 PM EDT (#265094) #

DJ Davis will turn 19 on July 25th, not 20 on June 27th.

Noted and corrected, thanks.

John Northey - Friday, November 02 2012 @ 01:52 PM EDT (#265095) #

Just found old BA rankings so to expand on my earlier post (BP = Baseball Prospectus, BA = Baseball America)...

Both do rankings in March
2012: BP: #2, BA: #5
2011: BP: #5, BA: #4
2010: BP: #22, BA: #19
2009: BP: #10, BA: #19 (Snider, JPA)
2008: BP: #24, BA: #25
2007: BP: #20, BA: #26
No rankings I can find from BP pre-2007.
2006: BA: #25
2005: BA: #15
2004: BA: #8
2003: BA: #6 (first full year of JPR)
2002: BA: #13
2001: BA: #17

So when JPR took over it was a middle of the road club as far as BA was concerned. Climbed in year one to #6, then dropped a little to #8 and then dropped until AA took over and it climbed to #4/5.

My read is BA gets very optimistic about new Jay GM's but then comes to earth. The question is how they will rank it this year - if it is still a top 5 organization then it is safe to say the perception now is better than during the JPR years. If it starts to drop though...

Of note...FanGraphs does this too...
2012: #9
2011: #8
2010: #26
2009: #20

Couldn't get earlier, but the same trend is there too.

So 3 sites, 3 methods, all put the Jays under JPR near the end as a bottom 1/3rd of MLB, all 3 put the Jays under AA as top 10. Lets hope they are onto something.

Shane - Friday, November 02 2012 @ 04:55 PM EDT (#265102) #

"My read is BA gets very optimistic about new Jay GM's but then comes to earth."

Between the holdover Ash picks graduating or floundering (Gross, Phelps, Rosario, Quiroz, McGowan, League) to MLB and the shine coming off his initial College drafts, yes, the top 10 rankings plummeted quickly.

Gerry - Monday, November 05 2012 @ 09:22 AM EST (#265192) #

Marc Hulet, who is one sixth responsible for the Batters Box top 30 prospects, has written-up his own top 15 Jays prospects at Fangraphs.

Fangraphs also has an interview posted with Aaron Sanchez.

eldarion - Friday, November 09 2012 @ 10:15 AM EST (#265333) #

Marc, I really enjoyed your piece. Thanks.

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