Batter's Box Interactive Magazine - Top 30 Prospects: #20

No intro - let's get to it!

20. Tyler Pastronicky, SS
Born December 13, 1989. Selected in the 5th round of the 2008 amateur draft.

Year	Age	Level	AB	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
2008	18	R	160	6	3	1	21	21	27	5	.263	.348	.356

Tyler Pastornicky was a non-heralded selection in the fifth round of the 2008 draft out of a Florida high school, but there was nothing quiet about his debut season in 2008 in the rookie Gulf Coast League. The 18-year-old shortstop is the son of former professionally infielder Cliff Pastornicky, so he has been around the game for years and it showed in his numbers.

Pastornicky hit .263/.349/.356 (.704 OPS) in 160 at-bats and stole 27 bases in 32 attempts. He walked 21 times and matched that with just 21 strikeouts. The power was lacking in Pastornicky’s game (0.94 ISO), but he has plenty of time to grow and gain strength. Average-wise, he improved each month from .167 in June, to .263 in July and .300 in August. Like many young players, Pastornicky struggled with runners on-base after presumably putting too much pressure on himself and he hit .292 with the bases empty, .219 with runners on base, and .200 with runners in scoring position.

He also played solid defence – especially considering his age and league. He made just six errors in 38 games at shortstop (.962 fielding percentage) and had a range factor per game (RFg) of 4.00. Due to his solid debut, and the lack of top options in front of him (assuming Justin Jackson is headed to Dunedin despite a lackluster second half to his season), Pastornicky could open 2009 in full-season ball at Lansing.

19. Kyle Ginley, RHP
Born September 1, 1986. Selected in the 17th round of the 2006 amateur draft.

Year	Age	Level	G	GS	IP	H/9	HR/9	BB/9	K/9	ERA
2006	19	R+	8	1	26.2	7.56	1.03	3.78	14.43	4.73
2006	19	A-	2	1	10.0	4.50	0.00	4.50	5.40	0.00
2007	20	A	26	26	121.2	10.54	0.82	3.04	9.58	4.73
2008	21	A	6	6	36.1	9.91	0.25	1.49	8.93	1.24
2008	21	A+	17	16	77.0	10.52	0.82	3.74	6.43	4.68

Kyle Ginley showed flashes of his potential this season, and remember he just turned 22 at the end of the season. Ginley returned to Lansing to start 2008 and pitched very well, earning a promotion after just six starts. Ginley was lights-out when he reached Dunedin, putting up a 2.36 ERA in five starts. But then things went downhill a little and Ginley was hit around for a five plus ERA in June and July before going on the DL with an oblique strain. Ginley's strongest pitch is his mid-90's fastball that he can spot down in the zone. Ginley also sports a slider and a change-up but he is still working on those pitches and relies on the fastball when he is in trouble.

Here is what Lansing pitching coach Tom Signore had to say about Ginley earlier in the year:

The big difference from last season is that he has become good at all the little detail things. He is better at controlling the running game, at having an idea of what he wants to do with each hitter, at throwing the fastball to both sides of the plate, and yes, his breaking pitches have come a long way. If you had to grade out his slider it's probably a touch below average for the big leagues and his change-up, while now it is below average for the big leagues, it will be an average major league change-up. He has the ability to spin a curve-ball but that is more of a get me over first strike pitch just to keep hitters honest.

As with most pitchers Ginley needs to continue to develop his off-speed pitches to succeed at higher levels. Ginley is headed for the AFL to experience pitching to more advanced hitters. Ginley will likely pitch in Dunedin next season unless he makes strides in the AFL.

18. Brad Emaus, 2B
Born March 28, 1986. Selected in the 11th round of the 2007 amateur draft.

Year	Age	Level	AB	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
2007	21	A-	136	6	0	2	12	26	2	0	.228	.291	.316
2008	22	A+	473	34	3	12	60	56	12	4	.302	.381	.463

Brad Emaus had a slow start to his pro career in 2007 with the Auburn Doubledays but he has been red-hot ever since. His success began with the 2007 New York Penn League playoffs where he hit 8-for-17 with three homers and six RBI. In 2008, Emaus took off despite skipping over the Midwest League for the Florida State League (FSL) where he hit .302/.380/.463 with 12 homers and 12 stolen bases in 473 at-bats. He also walked more times than he struck out: 60 walks, 56 strikeouts.

Emaus’ OPS was .844 and his ISO was a solid .161 (MLB average is considered .120). Emaus, who has always been a better hitter than fielder, was rated the best defensive second baseman in the Florida State League in 2008. He also has the ability to play third base and first base and could follow a similar career path to former Oakland Athletic Scott Spiezio (minus the booze, drugs, and rock & roll).

On the base paths, Emaus is a below-average runner and he could stand to shed a few of his 200 pounds. Emaus was originally drafted out of high school by the Atlanta Braves, but chose to attend Tulane University. Emaus will spend the fall season playing for the Honolulu Sharks of the Hawaii Baseball League. He was named a FSL post-season All-Star.

17. Tim Collins, LHP
Born August 29, 1989. Signed as a non-drafted free agent.

Year	Age	Level	G	GS	IP	H/9	HR/9	BB/9	K/9	ERA
2007	17	RK	7	0	6.0	9.00	0.00	3.00	10.50	4.50
2008	18	A	39	0	68.1	4.74	0.40	4.21	12.91	1.58

Tim Collins should be familiar to most Bauxites, as his season was one of the highlights of the year and one of the best seasons in the entire minor leagues. Collins didn’t attract much attention coming out of high school, in large part of his diminutive size. Collins is only 5’7” and weighs 155 pounds soaking wet. However, when JP Ricciardi’s father saw the Worcester, Massachusetts native pitching several times and liked what he saw. He passed the name on to his son and soon Collins had a tryout and then a professional contract with the Jays.

After six innings with the Gulf Coast Jays in 2007, Collins was sent to Lansing in 2008 and he set the Midwest League on fire. The best reliever in the Midwest League, Collins had a season out of the bullpen perhaps rivalled only by Anthony Siama of the Fort Myers Twins in the entire minor leagues. His strikeout rate was astronomical; nearly 13 batters per 9 innings. Tiny Tim allowed less than 5 hits per 9 innings, often while going 2 or 3 innings per appearance. His stats are even more impressive considering that he was the youngest player on the Lugnuts and was the only member of the pitching staff under 21 and only 71.2 of Lansing’s 1,247 innings pitched were thrown by pitchers other than Collins under the age of 22. The only stat that was somewhat worrisome was his walk rate and Collins will have to improve his control as he progresses.

Collins will have to prove himself at every level because of his build and the history of the minor leagues is littered with players who succeeded in the low minors without spectacular stuff, but did not have the raw talent to succeed at higher levels and in the majors. This may be the fate that awaits Collins, but few of those pitchers succeeded to the degree that Collins did. Collins throws a fastball that sits at 88-89 mph and a 12-6 curve, as well as a change-up. He’ll have to prove himself every year, but he’s passed his first test with flying colours, a gold star and a first-place ribbon.

16. Scott Richmond, RHP
Born August 30, 1979. Signed as a non-drafted free agent in 2007.

Year	Age	Level	G	GS	IP	H/9	HR/9	BB/9	K/9	ERA
2007	27	IND	23	23	145.2	9.08	0.43	2.86	6.70	4.26
2008	28	AA	16	16	89.2	8.93	1.41	3.01	8.43	4.92
2008	28	AAA	8	8	48.0	8.25	1.13	2.44	7.50	3.56
2008	28	ML	5	5	27.0	10.67	0.67	0.67	6.67	4.00

The Blue Jays version of Jim Morris, the 29 year-old from North Vancouver was arguably the feel-good story in the club's minor league system for 2008. Signed as a non-drafted free agent last October, Richmond's fellow Canadian teammates on the Edmonton Cracker-Cats, former big leaguers Stubby Clapp, Ryan Radmanovich and Mike Johnson, helped put in a good word for him to Jays scout Rob Ducey. Richmond spent the better part of three years in Edmonton but did not become a starter until the 2007 season. A 72-17 K/BB ratio in 71 1/3 innings as a reliever the previous year served as a harbinger of things to come. On a staff with former major leaguers Mike Johnson and Lou Pote, Richmond emerged as the staff ace by posting a 10-9 record for a team that finished 20 games below .500. He ranked tenth in ERA in the Northern League and finished second in both innings pitched and strikeouts. Before playing in Edmonton, Richmond was working on the docks in Vancouver and scraping barnacles off boat bottoms after failing to catch on in the B.C. Premier League. Richmond did pitch senior ball before going to Missouri Valley College and Oklahoma State.

The 6-5, 225 pound hurler enjoyed a decent April when he posted a 3.90 ERA but he got hit around in May with an ERA of six-and-a-quarter. He got back on the beam in June with an ERA just over four as he lowered his walks from nine percent to five while maintaining a strikeout rate of 20 percent. That earned him a call up to Syracuse where he was striking out a quarter of the batters he faced while maintaining his June walk rate from AA. On the verge of joining the Canadian baseball team for the Beijing Olympics, he was called up to the big club to replace an ailing David Purcey. He wound up losing his big league debut to Tampa Bay July 30th and wound up making two more starts where he averaged about five innings a start and giving up three runs. He was sent back down to Syracuse where he endured a rough month of August, posting an ERA of 5.63 as his strikeout rate was cut in half while his walk rate almost doubled. Richmond was called up to the Jays in September and acquitted himself well in another five-inning outing against Boston before picking up his first major league win in Baltimore in a rain-shortened complete game shutout in the final weekend of the season. In his five major league starts, the Jays scored only nine runs.

Throwing a fastball around 89-92 MPH, a slider from 84-86 MPH, a change up from 80-83 MPH and a curveball from 74-77 MPH, Richmond's go-to pitch is a slider. He needs to work on his command and hone his two-seam fastball and changeup against lefties as he was a little too hittable at times. Richmond will be bidding for a spot in the Jays starting rotation in '09 but some project him to be a long reliever/spot starter. If he doesn't make the big club out of spring training, he'll be a phone call and five hour flight away in Las Vegas. We should see him at the Rogers Centre in March when he suits up for Canada at the World Baseball Classic.

15. Balbino Fuenmayor, 3B
Born November 26, 1989. Signed as an international free agent in 2006.

Year	Age	Level	AB	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
2007	18	R	178	5	2	1	12	68	0	0	.174	.244	.242
2008	19	R	179	14	2	3	11	48	0	3	.307	.360	.458

The ‘Big Balbino’ was one of the few high profile international signings the Jays have made in recent years when he signed for $725k in 2006 (which is roughly equivalent to 2nd round money). In his pro ball debut in 2007 he struggled in the GCL. However, with a chance to repeat the league the young Venezuelan started to show why there was the hype surrounding him. He increased his average up over .300 and nearly doubled his slugging percentage from the previous year while cutting back on his Ks (which are still on the high side).

An assignment in the Midwest League to start next season will be a good sign for Fuenmayor. With a good season in Lansing Fuenmayor has one of the better chances to crack the Top 5 next season of players not in the top 10 this year).

14. Robert Ray, RHP
Born January 21, 1984. Selected in the 7th round of the 2005 amateur draft.

Year	Age	Level	G	GS	IP	H/9	HR/9	BB/9	K/9	ERA
2006	22	A+	14	9	48.2	10.73	0.37	2.40	6.84	4.99
2007	23	A+	18	15	66.2	11.21	0.41	3.24	7.70	4.86
2008	24	A+	13	13	70.2	9.04	0.76	2.29	7.64	4.20
2008	24	AA	16	16	96.1	10.09	0.56	2.52	6.73	3.18

Ray was drafted in 2005 and had an excellent debut season, his ERA was under three at Auburn and he was on Baseball America's top 30 list. But then Ray battled injuries in 2006 and 2007, he pitched 48 and 66 innings in those seasons and slipped below the prospect radar. But Ray bounced back in 2008 pitching 167 innings and earning a promotion to AA, finishing with a 3.18 ERA in 16 starts at that level. Ray has a plus fastball, 92-93 mph, with good late movement. Ray has an improved change-up and needs to develop his slider and curveball. Ray's fastball makes him a good candidate for a major league reliever, if he can develop his other pitches he could get a shot at being a starter.

13. Eric Eiland, CF
Born September 16, 1988. Selected in the 2nd round of the 2007 amateur draft.

Year	Age	Level	AB	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
2007	18	RK	176	7	1	1	22	62	16	1	.216	.315	.284
2008	19	A	249	14	2	0	37	80	23	1	.233	.334	.305

In an offseason chat Keith Law said Eiland “was a steal” considering his signing bonus and the fact he should have gone to college. Eiland had a scholarship to Texas A&M and was drawing interest by NCAA football programs. However, the Jays were able to sign Eiland, who decided to forego a college baseball career after a strong showing at the 2006 Area Code Baseball Games in Long Beach, California.

Eiland hasn’t put up strong numbers as a professional and there was added disappointment as he missed the beginning of this season and only got about half as many at-bats as his teammates. However, Eiland still remains one of the most toolsy prospects in the system. Eiland’s most obvious strength may be his speed. He runs a 4.5 40-yard dash. Last year he was the only player in the top 10 of stolen bases in the GCL who was only caught stealing once. This year he finished 21st in the MidWest League in stolen bases. However, he was one of only two players in the top 25 with under 250 at-bats and one of only two players in the top 25 who was only caught stealing once. The other was fellow Lugnut Darin Mastroianni who went 30-for-31. Eiland is not only fast, but he's a smart baserunner.

Eiland is an aggressive hitter and he’s still learning at the plate. At the beginning of the year Deric McKamey ranked Eiland as the fifth best prospect in the system based in large part on his good bat speed, which indicates his power should develop in time. He will have to cut down his strikeouts at some point, although he did make a modest improvement in 2008 by striking out in 33.7% of his at-bats as compared to 37.1% in 2007.

Still very raw, Eiland will likely go back to Lansing to begin next season. Next year will be important for him, as now that Eiland has adjusted to a full season of professional baseball the Jays will be looking to see some improvement in his plate discipline and contact rate, and if he shows signs of progress, a mid-season move to Dunedin is possible.

12. Brian Jeroloman, C
Born May 10, 1985. Selected in the 6th round of the 2006 amateur draft.

Year	Age	Level	AB	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
2006	21	A-	141	10	1	0	26	38	0	0	.241	.361	.326
2007	22	A+	290	14	0	3	85	57	0	0	.259	.421	.338
2008	23	AA	226	15	0	6	47	47	0	0	.270	.391	.416
2008	23	AAA	75	2	0	0	11	17	0	0	.200	.302	.227

Rated the best defensive catcher and having the best strike zone discipline in the Jays system by Baseball America, the 6-foot, 195 pound Jeroloman maintained his defensive reputation as one of the best defensive backstops in the minors while making progress with the bat this season. The left-handed hitting catcher from Suffern, New York managed to break the .400 slugging percentage barrier for the first time in New Hampshire. According to first inning.com, his line drive rate went from 18% in April to 32% percent in July and he posted a .405/.542/.649 line in 48 plate appearances in July. Jeroloman's .391 OBP would have put him in the Eastern League's top ten but he did not have enough plate appearances to qualify. When he was called up to Syracuse in late July, Jeroloman had trouble adjusting to AAA pitching as he started out 3-for-18 and his groundball rate shot up to 50 percent, up eight percent from New Hampshire. He struck out a little more but still drew a healthy amount of walks to maintain an OBP just over 100 points higher than his .200 batting average.

Defensively, the former Florida Gator shined behind the dish as threw out 36 percent of base stealers in New Hampshire and 42 percent in Syracuse where he gunned down 8 of 19 base stealers. With throws from home plate to second base in the 1.8-1.9 second range, Jeroloman is considered to be major league-ready behind the plate. His emergence along with that of J.P. Arencibia's made Robinzon Diaz expendable as the former top catcher in the system was sent to Pittsburgh in the Jose Bautista trade. If Jeroloman makes it to the bigs next season, he'll have family bragging rights as his brother Chuck, a former infielder/outfielder in the Boston farm system, did not play affiliated minor league ball in 2008.

11. John Tolisano, 2B
Born October 7, 1988. Selected in the 2nd round of the 2007 amateur draft

Year	Age	Level	AB	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
2007	18	R	183	5	0	10	26	40	7	1	.246	.336	.437
2008	19	A-	432	20	8	6	56	110	5	2	.229	.315	.354

Of all the heralded 2007 Toronto draftees, Tolisano enjoyed arguably the most success at his first taste of pro-ball, swatting ten homers in just over 180 at-bats and showing decent patience at the plate. 2008, however, was a bit of a disappointment for Tolisano as he saw his production drop across most offensive categories, due in some part to a horrific end to the season in which his OPS was .319 over his final 50 at-bats.

In the field, Tolisano displays a strong, accurate arm but struggles with his range and positioning. While it has been mentioned that he could one day move to rightfield, Tolisano will for now stick at second base during his second go-round of the Midwest League.

Despite his underwhelming sophomore year, there's still lots to like about Tolisano. He drives the ball well, and can move fairly quickly, as evidenced by his eight triples. At just twenty years old (today!), Tolisano has plenty of time to re-establish himself among the Jays top ten prospects.

Posted by Pistol on Tuesday, October 07 2008 @ 08:25 AM EDT.

Top 30 Prospects: #20 - #11 | 36 comments | Create New Account

The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.

Mike Green - Tuesday, October 07 2008 @ 08:58 AM EDT (#193163) #

Jeroloman looks to me like a major leaguer, and that might happen some time in 2009. I also really like Pastornicky, but he, of course, is at least 3 years away.

Kieran - Tuesday, October 07 2008 @ 11:45 AM EDT (#193167) #

Excuse my relative ignorance here, but...

Why is it that many of these prospects have batting averages below .225 or ERAs above 4.50? Is it quite frequent that players with poor performances at lower levels transform into quality major leaguers? Am I wrong in interpreting these performances as being "poor"?

I find it hard to get excited about prospects who are seemingly struggling at the low levels. Shouldn't they be tearing it up, relative to the league? Is it not true, that when the talent pool is not as evenly matched, that the top performers will have exaggerated results (in a positive sense)?

I realize that in many cases, power is not developed or demonstrated until later on in a player's career, but stats like batting average, OBP, and ERA could be better, no?

In any case, I realize I have to be wrong but am looking for more of an explanation...thanks.

Dave Rutt - Tuesday, October 07 2008 @ 12:08 PM EDT (#193168) #

I find it hard to get excited about prospects who are seemingly struggling at the low levels. Shouldn't they be tearing it up, relative to the league?

For one thing, it depends on whether they're HS or college draftees. If David Cooper didn't tear it up in Auburn this year, there would be genuine cause for concern, because a 1st round college draftee should be able to hit low-A pitching. But it's excusable for a high school kid or a young international signing like Balbino to struggle at first, since the competition could be tougher than anything they've ever faced.

So it's important to look at context. The high school players who are drafted in the first few rounds are obviously very good baseball players who had a lot of success at their high schools. Just because they can succeed against their peers doesn't mean they're going to succeed immediately against guys 2, 3 years older than them. Of course at some point they're going to have to do that if they want to make it in the bigs, but at age 18 there's still a lot of development going on. And as players move up the minor league ladder, there are always adjustments to be made. How quickly a guy can adjust to tougher competition is one of the ways we can evaluate him.

Pistol - Tuesday, October 07 2008 @ 12:18 PM EDT (#193169) #

Why is it that many of these prospects have batting averages below .225 or ERAs above 4.50? Is it quite frequent that players with poor performances at lower levels transform into quality major leaguers? Am I wrong in interpreting these performances as being "poor"?

I think there's a few things you also need to consider:

1. The further you get away from the Majors the less telling the stat lines are and the more important tools are.
2. You have to consider age as well. For Tolisano, Eiland, etc. they were playing in the Midwest League at 19 when the average age is 21.6.
3. League context. Staying with the Midwest League, the league OPS was in the .690 range.

So while Tolisano, for example, looks pretty bad just looking at the triple slash numbers he's only a little bit below average when he's 2 years younger than the average player he's competing against.

Also, outside of the top 10 you're looking at players who, at best, are probably considered C+ prospects at the moment so they won't have the big numbers that Travis Snider will.

Denoit - Tuesday, October 07 2008 @ 12:21 PM EDT (#193170) #

Sometime players are injured and have off years as well. Doesn't mean there isnt talent there, you can't just look at stats and assume that refects what type of player they are.

This list has to be the deepest I've ever saw. Usually the lower prospects are guys who might be marginal or are really raw, but there are players here who could be legitimate big league guys. The future looks bright.

Denoit - Tuesday, October 07 2008 @ 12:26 PM EDT (#193171) #

I have a question, how is Tim Collins signed as a non-drafted free agent? If he is from North America doesn't he have to be signed through the draft? Im a little confused on that one.

Lugnut Fan - Tuesday, October 07 2008 @ 12:42 PM EDT (#193173) #

Collins was not drafted by a major league organization out of high school, nor was he recruited to play college baseball. His size was a major concern. He was actually all set to go to community college in Rhode Island when he was offered the chance to try out for the Blue Jays. If you aren't drafted, you can sign with anyone much like an international player, only with far less hoopla.

Alot of major league organizations will sign undrafted guys to fill roster spots on minor league teams. Collins has a long ways to go to Toronto, but he is fearless and attacks hitters which is exactly what he has to do.

Ryan Day - Tuesday, October 07 2008 @ 12:43 PM EDT (#193174) #

Emaus feels quite low for a good second baseman with plate discipline and some pop. He's ahead of where Scott Campbell (presumably top 10) was at the same age and considerably more polished than Tolisano. He's probably more likely to stay a second baseman than either of those two.

Thomas - Tuesday, October 07 2008 @ 01:03 PM EDT (#193175) #

The talk about age relative to minor league level reminded the author of the Collins comment that he edited the entry last night, but somehow forgot to post it to the thread. It has now been updated slightly. Collins, of course, had an impressive stat line, but it is another example of someone's performance being even more impressive in context.

John Northey - Tuesday, October 07 2008 @ 01:17 PM EDT (#193176) #

Lets see how these guys have done vs. where they were last year...

Guys in their first year as a Jay
20. Tyler Pastronicky, SS
16. Scott Richmond, RHP

Not in the top 30 last year
18. Brad Emaus, 2B
17. Tim Collins, LHP
14. Robert Ray, RHP

In the top 30 last year and climbed
15. Balbino Fuenmayor, 3B - was #23
12. Brian Jeroloman, C - was #16

In the top 30 last year and dropped
19. Kyle Ginley, RHP - was #9
13. Eric Eiland, CF - was #12
11. John Tolisano, 2B - was #6

Last years #11-20 is here for comparison.

MatO - Tuesday, October 07 2008 @ 01:24 PM EDT (#193177) #

If Tim Collins were 6 inches taller then he's probably be #2 on this list behind Snider and would probably be one of the best pitching prospects in the minors. Another example of context.

92-93 - Tuesday, October 07 2008 @ 03:52 PM EDT (#193183) #

I find it interesting that Ricky Romero and Kevin Ahrens basically receive free passes and are top 10 prospects based on the fact that they were both top draft picks - what does Romero have to do to DROP out of the top 10? Turn 26?

And by my count, I see the top10 as Snider, Cecil, Jackson, Arencibia, Cooper, Ahrens, Campbell, RRomero, Mills, and Rzepcynski (in no order) - unless I'm wrong, that's quite the fall for a 19 year old (Chavez) who was #5 last year and isn't top 30 this year.

Ryan Day - Tuesday, October 07 2008 @ 04:08 PM EDT (#193184) #

I find it interesting that Ricky Romero and Kevin Ahrens basically receive free passes and are top 10 prospects based on the fact that they were both top draft picks - what does Romero have to do to DROP out of the top 10? Turn 26?

There's no denying Romero's been disappointing, but when you look at him on a basis other than "Not Troy Tulowitzki", he's not that bad. He seemed to finally get over his problems at AA this year and had a solid AAA debut. He's still left-handed, he's still got good stuff - BA rated him the best curve and best change in the organization last year - and he doesn't turn 24 until next month.

John Northey - Tuesday, October 07 2008 @ 04:08 PM EDT (#193185) #

I figure Chavez dropped due to hitting 211/272/323 with 128 strikeouts in 439 PA's vs just 25 walks. He really had major issues with full season ball after tearing apart rookie ball in '07. His 2007 was actually a demotion to standard rookie ball from high rookie thus the stats were very misleading in retrospect.

Now, given he is just 19 he could recover and become a strong player, but his drop off the list I view as a plus for the Jays in the respect that a poor year now can knock you out of the top 30 altogether rather than just pushing you down a bit. Jeroloman climbed just 4 slots despite having a better year than most would've predicted. Ginley did OK overall but dropped 10 spots.

Lets hope the system gets deeper each year as it'll make the Jays all the more fun in the 10's and provide either JP or his replacement with a lot of talent to work with. I know I love seeing a guy who spent time in the majors as #16 on the prospect list and another who could be the catcher in 2009 as #12.

Rob - Tuesday, October 07 2008 @ 04:19 PM EDT (#193186) #

Sure, these players look better when age and league context is considered, but as Pistol said, these guys are midrange prospects if that. The 2006 middle 10 included guys like Eric Fowler (76 innings in two years since, out this year), Ismael Ramirez (ineffective then probably hurt), and Ryan Klosterman (OPS under .700 in Double-A at ages 25 and 26).

Speaking from experience, the time spent on ranking anyone below the top 10 really isn't worth it, especially for a weak system like this. I'm actually a little surprised to see a top 30 this year.

MatO - Tuesday, October 07 2008 @ 04:22 PM EDT (#193187) #

If you look at Romero's and Cecil's lines from AAA they're not that different and there's not that big an age difference between them. Romero took a big step forward toward the end of last year. A lefty who sits at 92 with a plus curve and change deserves to be in the top 10.

Gerry - Tuesday, October 07 2008 @ 04:28 PM EDT (#193188) #

Ricky Romero had a 3.38 ERA in AAA this year, not bad for a 23 year old. Now that was only in 7 starts so it is a small sample size but there did seem to be some signs that Romero did make a jump this season.

Kevin Ahrens was named in the midwest league's top 20 prospects by BA so he is doing something right. In total the Jays had seven players make the league top 20's this year, Snider; Cecil; Arencibia; Cooper; Ahrens; Jackson; and Farquhar.

Chavez was BA's #12 prospect last season. He did have a tough year in A ball but as I described in my scouting report, to me, Chavez looked like he had yet to get comfortable with his size. Chavez is 6'3" or 6'4" and looked somewhat uncoordinated to me. This season the coaching staff in Lansing were trying to change his swing a little to get him started earlier. They believed he was improved in that respect by the end of the year. This year's performance has been a setback for Chavez but I wouldn't be surprised to see him make big gains next season.

rtcaino - Tuesday, October 07 2008 @ 04:42 PM EDT (#193189) #

Great work so far guys, I'm looking forward to the top ten!

By my count, this year David Romero will be the only individual included in this list who joined the organization before JP’s tenure.

Glevin - Tuesday, October 07 2008 @ 05:04 PM EDT (#193190) #

"Speaking from experience, the time spent on ranking anyone below the top 10 really isn't worth it, especially for a weak system like this. I'm actually a little surprised to see a top 30 this year"

We all know that most if not all of these players will not make it in any meaningful way, but it's still fun to look at. I appreciate the top-30.

Thomas - Tuesday, October 07 2008 @ 05:05 PM EDT (#193191) #

I'm actually a little surprised to see a top 30 this year.

The fact there's a top 30 isn't a reflection of how deep or shallow the system is. The Box does a Top 30 every year and you'll likely see one again next year, regardless of how well or poorly these players progress. Baseball America does a top 10 prospects for every team, from Tampa Bay and Oakland through to Houston and the Nationals. However, the point that half of these prospects will likely be nothing more than minor league filler in a couple of years is well worth keeping in mind.

Maldoff - Tuesday, October 07 2008 @ 05:18 PM EDT (#193193) #

Speaking of Farqhuar, if the above assumption of the top 10 being Snider, Cecil, Jackson, Arencibia, Cooper, Ahrens, Campbell, RRomero, Mills, and Rzepcynski is true (and I would have no qualms with that), how can Farqhuar be left out of the top 30 all together? I understand he relies on trickery more than a usual prospect would, but if BA even liked him, I would think he could make the top 30!

Gerry - Tuesday, October 07 2008 @ 05:37 PM EDT (#193194) #

Farquhar is an interesting case, most players who throw underarm tend to top out in AA or high A. Seth Overbey and Conor Falkenbach come to mind but there have been others. The difference with Farquhar is that he also throws over the top and he throws harder than most side-armers. It is obvious the NYPL managers liked him and it will be interesting to see where BA rank him in their top 30.

TamRa - Tuesday, October 07 2008 @ 06:28 PM EDT (#193195) #

I have a weakness for wanting to compare players, not necessarily in terms of physicality or "stuff" every time, sometimes just in terms of career track.

In that vein, I wonder if Scott Richmond's future won't look a lot like Pete Walker's career.

Ducey - Tuesday, October 07 2008 @ 06:36 PM EDT (#193196) #

I love the Top 30 list every year.

Sure some of these guys will never make it but following them thru the draft and minor league game threads is all part of being an armchair GM.

CeeBee - Tuesday, October 07 2008 @ 07:18 PM EDT (#193197) #

I'll echo the above post. I love the top 30 lists and while most will never make it there will be some surprises. It's almost as much fun following the Jays minor league players as the bigs and provides a lot of speculative fun as well. Keep em coming guys and thanks for all the hard work. :)

greenfrog - Tuesday, October 07 2008 @ 08:13 PM EDT (#193198) #

These lists are great. Nice work! A couple of comments:

"Kevin Ahrens was named in the midwest league's top 20 prospects by BA so he is doing something right."

Shouldn't a first-round draft pick (even a HS one) be *expected* to make it into the top 20 prospects in low A in his second year of pro ball? If anything, I thought his #19 ranking reflected the fact that he had a relatively disappointing year.

Also, I appreciate that Eiland and Tolisano (along with Ahrens and Jackson) are still young, but how often do players have such poor offensive years early on and rebound to become productive hitters? It can't be that often. I don't mean to focus on the negative. There is clearly talent on this list, and some players, like Collins, have the makings of a wonderful success story. But I was always under the impression that peripheral stats are the strongest predictor of future success - even for younger players at the lower levels.

Denoit - Tuesday, October 07 2008 @ 08:41 PM EDT (#193199) #

Also, I appreciate that Eiland and Tolisano (along with Ahrens and Jackson) are still young, but how often do players have such poor offensive years early on and rebound to become productive hitters?

I thought the same thing at first, I wanted to see how some other good players started out in the Low minors and suprising few actually had great seasons when they are that young. There is the exception such as Travis Snider, but then there are alot more like Alex Rios who as a 20 year old in A ball hit .263/.299/354 with 2Hrs and 20 2Bs in 130 AB's Nothing spectacular at all, but these young players are asked to work on specific things and some figure it out, some don't thats all part of being a prospect. Justin Jackson actually reminds me alot of Alex Rios just the way he holds himself. I know they dont play the same position, but the tools are pretty similar from when I watched him play.

John Northey - Tuesday, October 07 2008 @ 08:45 PM EDT (#193200) #

Farquhar is interesting. I know I hadn't noticed him, but now that I know he is a sidearmer I'll pay more attention.

Just 15 games in relief this year, 32 1/3 IP in low A and A, 20 hits, 1 HR, 8 BB, 31 SO. Pretty good, but a 10th round pick who does well in relief for 32 innings doesn't shift the guy from non-prospect roster filler to star. Now, if he does that again but over 70+ innings in A+ next year then I'll think he's a solid prospect.

Gerry - Tuesday, October 07 2008 @ 09:19 PM EDT (#193202) #

Baseball players really develop when they are 20 or 21. Results at 19 don't mean a lot. If I pull out my 2008 BA prospect handbook here are some comparisons for the Jays youngsters:

Carlos Gonzlaez, Arizona's #1 prospect (since traded); born 1985 - hit .275 in 14 games in 2004 in the MWL and .307 with 86 K's the following year, a full season, also in the MWL.

Jordan Schafer, Atlanta's #1 prospect; born 1986 - hit .240 in the Sally league in 2006 with 95 K's

Jay Bruce, Cincinnati's #1 prospect; born 1987 - hit .291 in the MWL in 2006 with 106K's

Joey Votto, Cincy's #3 prospect; born 1983 - hit .231 in 60 MWL games in 2003; hit .302 with 110 K's the next season also in the MWL

Cameron Maybin, Detroit's #1 prospect; born 1987 - hit .304 in the MWL in 2006 with 116 K's

Brandon Wood, Anaheim's #1 prospect; born 1985 - hit .251 in the MWL in 2004 with 117 K's

Daric Barton, Oakland's #1 prospect; born 1985 - hit .313 in the MWL in 2004 with 44 K's

Andrew McCutcheon, Pittsburgh's #1 prospect; born 1986 - hit .291 in the Sally league in 2006 with 91 K's

Colby Rasmus, St. Louis #1 prospect, born 1986 - hit .310 in the MWL in 2006 with 55 K's

Kevin Ahrens, born 1989 - hit .259 in the MWL in 2008 with 135 K's

Justin Jackson, born 1988 - hit .238 in the MWL in 2008 with 154 K's

So compared to other teams top prospects (most #1's) Ahrens and Jackson look OK, not great but OK, from a batting average perspective. One of the best MWL lines is from Daric Barton who hasn't yet become a star in the major leagues. The number that doesn't look good in Ahrens and Jackson's line is the strikeouts. However I believe that 2009 is the key year for those prospects, not 2008.

Glevin - Tuesday, October 07 2008 @ 10:21 PM EDT (#193203) #

" Results at 19 don't mean a lot."

It usually all matters. The real top prospects often show star potential even at that age. The top prospects tend to follow one of two paths-They dominate, go up a level, struggle for a little bit and then dominate, then go up a level. Or, they just dominate at every level.

For examples, OPS at various levels...
Votto R-.914, A-ball-.800, AA-.955, AAA-.859
Bruce-.R-841, A-.906, AA-only 66 fabulous ABs, AAA-.973.
Gonzalez-R-.712 (when he was 17), A-.848, AA-.798, AAA-.787
Snider-R-.979, A-.901, AA-.818, only 64 ABs in AAA
Maybin-A-.859, AA-.869

Aherns-R-.660, A-.696
Jackson-R-.515, A-.708

So, all these top hitters looked good right away or almost right away. Both could develop, but right now, neither Ahrens or Jackson are top prospects. (Both were actually slightly worse in the second half too which is not a great sign either.)

SheldonL - Tuesday, October 07 2008 @ 11:58 PM EDT (#193204) #

I think we're generally being rather optimistic in our assessments of our top prospects.
Yes, Travis Snider batted .301 in his September call-up but he didn't exactly slug over .500 at AA and his sample size for AAA is too small to consider him a success at that level. I think he needs to kill AAA pitching in order to get the full-time promotion, which we hope can come as early as the all-star break of 2009 but we should be totally committed to have him spend the entire 2009 season in AAA.

Cecil also needs at least two more seasons before we can consider him major league ready. He needs to be able to go 5 innings every start and next year, he has to be able to not only accomplish that feat but also pitch well for the entire season because 6 starts is nothing to write home about. Young pitchers tend to hit a snag at AAA in their first seasons at that level so he has to not only pitch well next year but prove it was no fluke in the early parts of 2010 to get a permanent call up that season.

Ricky Romero has not exactly wowed me with his 51 starts at the AA level (ERA around 4.95) and so his 7 starts with an ERA of 3.31 at AAA is also nothing to write home about. Like Cecil, he has to prove what he can do for a full season at AAA next year and then prove that it was no fluke in the first couple of months in 2010 before he gets the permanent call-up.

Of all our prospects, I think Arencibia is closest (with Snider right behind him) as he's ready for AAA and if he's killing AAA pitchers by the all-star break, I think we've got a major league ready catcher who's got pop.

That being said, I'm not saying Cecil and Romero are crap! They're both talented but they have to provide results; results which I think is about a year and a half away from being considered money in the bank... and that's a best case scenario.
So we need to hurry out there and get a very strong FA starting pitcher like either Derek Lowe, Sheets or Brad Penny to sign a 3 year deal to hold us over until Cecil and Romero make it (that is, IF they make it... which is a big if with young talented pitchers).

Ozzieball - Wednesday, October 08 2008 @ 12:10 AM EDT (#193205) #

Glevin,

Nobody here is delusional enough to believe that Ahrens and Jackson are even remotely close to the class of Bruce, McCutcheon, et al. For normal prospects, statlines don't begin to matter all that much until a player reaches AA. Until then there's too much of a difference in age and experience within the leagues to make any particularly effective judgment.

China fan - Wednesday, October 08 2008 @ 12:43 AM EDT (#193206) #

Sheldon, you seem to have very strict rules about prospects needing to "prove" themselves in the minors before reaching the majors. And you want them to "prove" themselves for a full season at AAA, or even two seasons, before they can be considered for promotion. Yet there are always examples where this is simply not necessary -- look at Jesse Litsch for example who did not need a full season at AAA. Yes, he needed a few games at Syracuse this past season to tweak his pitching, but he simply did not need a full season at AAA. How can you be so certain that Snider, Cecil, Romero and others will need one or two full seasons at AAA? Surely it depends on the individual case, and you can't make such strict rules about everyone. There are always exceptions, and I suspect that at least one of the top prospects will be able to jump to the majors without all the rules that you want to set for them.

Glevin - Wednesday, October 08 2008 @ 01:32 AM EDT (#193207) #

"Nobody here is delusional enough to believe that Ahrens and Jackson are even remotely close to the class of Bruce, McCutcheon, et al. For normal prospects, statlines don't begin to matter all that much until a player reaches AA. Until then there's too much of a difference in age and experience within the leagues to make any particularly effective judgment."

I disagree again. Most players who make the major leagues hit even in A-ball. The younger players are, the more chance they have to develop of course, but a player with a .800 OPS in A will have a much better chance of making the majors than a player with a .650 OPS (given equal age and park factors). Pitching is different, but numbers for hitters matter. I am not saying Ahrens or Jackson are done as prospects, but neither look particularly promising at this point. Jackson seems ahead of Ahrens because of his position and his better ability to walk. Both of these guys need to take a big step forward next year which is a definite possiblity. Anyway, prospects with little to no chance of being impact players just don't excite me. The value of these players will come almost exclusively in cost as being average is very replacable. What people sometimes forget is that a large percentage of even average and bench players were once top prospects. If you look at Baseball America's top 100 from 2002, you will find a bunch stars (Beckett, Cabrera, Reyes, Teixera, Mauer, etc...) but you will find tonnes of major league starters and roll players. At a quick glance, I would say about 60/100 are in the major leagues 6 years later. It would take more time than I have to prove, but I am certain that most major leaguers from stars to borderline players, were once considered top-100 prospects.

John Northey - Wednesday, October 08 2008 @ 08:25 AM EDT (#193208) #

Checking the current Jays for making the top 100 prospects since 1990 (go here to see the full list) we see (among Jay starters in September or notables)....

Barajas: never on list Overbay: #65 in 2003 Inglett: never on list Rolen: #13 in '97, #27 in '96, #91 in '95 McDonald: never on list Lind: #39 in 2007 Wells: #12 in 2001, #4 in 2000, #69 in 1999, #52 in 1998 Rios: #6 in 2004 Snider: #53 in 2007 Scutaro: never on list Hill: #64 in 2005, #96 in 2004 Pitchers... AJ: #20 in 2000, #21 in 1999 Halladay: #12 in 1999, #38 in 1998, #23 in 1997 Litsch: never on list Marcum: never on list McGowan: #48 in 2006, #18 in 2004, #36 in 2003, #98 in 2002 Purcey: never on list Ryan: never on list Downs: never on list Didn't bother checking other relievers as they rarely make these lists. So, making the top 100 lists... Overbay, Rolen, Lind, Wells, Rios, Snider, Hill, AJ, Halladay, McGowan Never making the lists... Barajas, Inglett, McDonald, Scutaro, Litsch, Marcum, Purcey, Ryan, Downs The hitters who didn't make the lists are pretty much guys who are role players. So for hitters to become stars they pretty much have to make the list, for pitchers it isn't as important as shown by Marcum, and Litsch. I was surprised Purcey never made it. Interesting how McGowan went from top 20 to off the list to middle of it before making it too.

cybercavalier - Wednesday, December 14 2016 @ 10:44 PM EST (#336647) #

December 12, 2016. Canadian Tim Collins is still around and signs with the Washington Nationals for minor league contract.

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