Think we could send Reed Johnson (in an Alex Rios jersey) to SF for Lincecum?

No? Shucks.

"the real question now is what happens in a year when he comes back"

Really?  Right now I think there are some pretty good questions about this year...

I have to agree with the sentiments already expressed here, there's no point giving up assets for another back-end-of-the-rotation guy when we already have Litsch and Chacin.  But boy, there is a lot less room for error (and injuries) for A.J., McGowan and Marcum.

Does it make any sense to be frustrated with the pitching coaches or trainers over this?  I want to blame someone, dammit.

This means that Brandon League will go a long way to determining the season.

Sadly with this kind of injury, there's a very good chance he won't come back.

J.P: "The good news is he should be totally fine, bounce back in four months he'll be throwing."

I'm confused.

Maybe I'm being too simplistic, but weren't the Mets interested in Johnson? Johnson plus one or more of Purcey, Thigpen, Lind should net us some pitching in return - shouldn't it?

From the Mets perspective they get their relatively inexpensive RF plus a prospect. Reed's style might be better suited to the NL anyways.

Hey Jeff Weaver is still available!

Uh, Kyle Lohse?

Anyone?

I don't know much about injuries myself ... what is the long-term prognosis on a torn labrum?  Riccardi seemed optimistic, and he always tells the truth about injuries ...

I'm not sure if you're being sarcastic or not, but did you really expect that JP would say anything else? They haven't even had the surgery yet. A labrum tear is usually a pretty bad injury, although there are probably degrees of tear of the labrum and such that have to be considered that we don't know about.

To pick up on a previous comment, I cannot help but wonder about the training and medical staff of the Blue Jays. 

With the absolutely insane amount of injuries sustained last year and this newest issue with Casey, should they not be taking at least a small part of the blame?  I realize injuries (particularily with pitchers) are one part bad luck,  one part overwork and one part the body of the player but when does it become the responsibility of the training staff to step up and speak to either the coaches or the players about potential problems that may arise? 

Shouldn't a good training staff be monitoring someone very closely if he is making a transition from short relief to starter incase any injuries come up? 

I know nothing about medical issues so I may be way off base here.  Just a thought. 

If the Jays could convince Beane to give up Blanton for Lind, Thigpen and pitching prospects such as Ricky Romero, I'd be all for it (I have a feeling that Ricciardi will at least kick at the tires).  Otherwise, I hope Ricciardi stays away from giving up talent to aquire a 5th starter.  By mid-season I imagine at least one of Purcey, Chacin, or Romero could be ready to step in to the Jays' rotation should a starter go down.  Signing Lohse would be fine too since it's only money Ricciardi would be giving up.

Speaking of shoulder injuries, what was Purcey's problem?  If memory serves me correctly, he had shoulder surgery of some kind as well.

The best example of success after labrum surgery is Chris Carpenter who was acrtually better after the surgery than before.

There's a reason why everyone says that you can never have enough pitching.  There is nobody to blame for Janssen's injury because these things just happen.

Brian Wolfe probably deserves to make it, but the Jays seem to lean towards veterans generally in position battles, and I doubt Benitez will be any different.

 "BJ Ryan (I don't anticipate any setbacks, he'll be there on March 31),"

I am not particularly high on Ryan this year. The usual recovery to form of pitchers from Tommy John surgery is two years. Ryan isn't even at year one now. (http://sports.espn.go.com/fantasy/baseball/flb/story?page=MLB30qtor ) I think expectations that he will go back to where he was two years ago are misplaced.  As for Litsch, count me as a non-believer. 111 IP, 50 K, 36 BB is not at all good. Janssen is a definite loss. Not something irreplacable by any means, but not by Litsch IMO.

"I am not particularly high on Ryan this year. The usual recovery to form of pitchers from Tommy John surgery is two years. Ryan isn't even at year one now. (http://sports.espn.go.com/fantasy/baseball/flb/story?page=MLB30qtor ) I think expectations that he will go back to where he was two years ago are misplaced.  As for Litsch, count me as a non-believer. 111 IP, 50 K, 36 BB is not at all good. Janssen is a definite loss. Not something irreplacable by any means, but not by Litsch IMO."

I said BJ Ryan wouldn't experience any setbacks by March 31. He will be part of the Opening Day Roster. What I didn't say was that he would be vintage BJ.

And as for Litsch, his minor league numbers suggest that he's a better pitcher than what he showed at the major league level. He'll be fine as a #5 starter for this team, there is no problem there.

And as for Litsch, his minor league numbers suggest that he's a better pitcher than what he showed at the major league level. He'll be fine as a #5 starter for this team, there is no problem there.

Further to that, in 310.2 career minor league innings, Jesse struck out 7.48 per 9.  That may be a better indicator than his MLB debut of at least a modest ability to miss bats at the major league level.  He's young and has a lot of movement on his pitches.  If he sharpens that movement a bit as he matures, I think he'll be fine.

Wolfe pitched 2 innings today.  Does he have an option left?  I could see him being stretched out at AAA to see if he can be an effective starter.  People also seem to be forgetting about our Rule 5 acquisition in the bullpen equation.  Randy Wells has been effective so far this spring and has to be offered back to his original team if he doesn't make the opening day roster.  If Ryan goes north with the club, the only way Wells does is if one of Frasor, Wolfe or Tallet is sent to Syracuse.  Wolfe being sent down to become a starter (again) is a viable solution.  Packaging a reliever with a left fielder is another.

Non-roster left-hander John Parrish might have fit the bill – he broke in as a starter with the Orioles – but Ricciardi said he is going too well out of the bullpen right now. "We're not that smart," he said with a laugh. "All of a sudden we make him a starter. ... We could screw the whole thing up."

Ricciardi never blinked when a list of available free agents was rhymed off to him:

Kyle Lohse?

"Can't afford him."

Roger Clemens?

"Yeah, that's the guy we're looking at, him and (Barry) Bonds. They'll solve a lot of problems, right?"

Rodrigo Lopez?

Ricciardi, at least gave pause there.

"There's a lot of guys out there, but we're so far into camp now, it's hard to say one of those guys is going to come in and just take a job from someone. I like to have a little bit of faith in the guys we're seeing."

"He burst on the scene with a phenomenal outing and followed it up with 3 horrendous efforts (12ER in 9 IP). But he went back down to the minors and came back with 16 really good starts.
In fact, if you delete those 3 starts, he pitched 102 IP with a 3.08 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP."

You can't take out 15% of someone's starts and say "without those..."  I will not believe in Litsch as a major league starting pitcher until I see him missing bats.

There is no such thing as a "small" labrum tear for a pitcher.  Maybe a hitter can come back easier with reduced strength in the shoulder but hardly any pitchers can.  This is as bad a news for Janssen as it was for Chacin.  What's interesting is that Casey seemed to be fairly effective this spring.  A line of 5 innings, 4 h, 2 r, 1 hr, 0 bb, 6 k.

The usage on a lot of Jays relievers, particularly Downs and Janssen and Accardo in the second half was quite heavy, especially in terms of back-to-back appearances.  Janssen already had a fairly max-effort delivery (one that injured his back as a starter in '06) and I guess a full season of throwing complete effort out of the pen in that drop and drive fashion had an effect.

As the wear and tear was originally diagnosed last season, it probably carried over into Janssen's off-season and spring training until it finally gave way.

Chris Carpenter did not have labrum surgery that I know of...his was rotator cuff surgery.  Very different.  Labrum is actually the fibre that holds the muscles and bones together and help them work together.  It is not a group of muscles like the rotator cuff which can be strengthened and rebuilt.

Doctors can repair labrums to a certain degree with today's techniques but the odds of the pitcher getting back the full strength in that shoulder are very low based on results observed thus far.  I think it will take a technique as revolutionary as Tommy John surgery to solve this problem and it is far more complicated than replacing a ligament.

JP is being close-minded...having Bonds would in fact solve a lot of problems, and might even get us in the playoffs. But I see we're not prepared to take a risk.

The only thing with Bonds is where does he play?  He can't play the outfield anymore, at least not everyday.  You're not going to displace Thomas/Stairs from DH.

You'd love to have his bat in the lineup but there's a whole entire circus that would come along with that kind of signing.  For the players, the front office, even the fans.  It's hard enough to run a MLB team without being called to task at every game for employing a convicted juicer...as opposed to all those that have gone unprosecuted thus far.

It's easy for us to say from the comfort of our home or office chairs that we should take the heat and the risk associated with signing a Clemens or Bonds.  I suspect we'd all have a different view if we were trying to lead a team.

On the other hand, the Janssen injury may make an outfield for pitching trade more likely.

Bonds or Clemens?   Are we out of our minds???    I can't believe that people are suggesting that these are real possibilities!

For starters, there's the $15-$20 million in salary that they would command.     But an even bigger concern is that there's a very real possibility of future jail time for both of them.   Bonds was indicted by a federal Grand Jury in November.   Clemens is being investigated by the Justice Dept. and FBI for lying to Congress.... the scrutiny is only going to get worse for both of them as the season goes on.    No team wants or needs this type of distraction during the season, and certainly not the risk-adverse Jays.  

Maldoff,

I agree, but I still think Blanton will be the target.  He won't demand as much as Haren since he's more of a #3 starter, he has three years before free agency, Beane and Ricciardi have a good relationship, and I bet a package of Lind, Thigpen, and an arm like Ricky Romero could get it done.  I like Lind and would hate to see him go, but with Snider coming up as soon as next year, DH covered until 2010 and 1B covered until 2011, Lind is expendable and has some value.

The bottomline is...putting Barry Bonds in LF would likely give the Jays a very good chance at making the playoffs, and possibly doing more than that. All it would cost is money, something that is not a concern for Ted Rogers and his organization. And JP's already faced a ton of criticism in this city. Another non-playoff season or two, and he might be out of a job anyway. So I'm disappointed that he wouldn't even give such a promising idea a shot, and disappointed that one of the best hitters in baseball is out there for the taking, and the Jays aren't interested. As for possible jail time, well in my opinion that's unlikely in the first place, and even if it does happen, it would come after this season (and we'd only being giving a 1 year contract). It's not a valid reason for not making a deal like this one.

"I think it goes well beyond possible jail time.  Barry is indicted on perjury and obstruction of justice charges.  I don't know enough about immigration law in Canada - but I'm rather certain that Barry is not allowed to leave the US.  Similarly, he may not even be legally allowed to be employed by the Blue Jays given his current circumstances."

How are you "rather certain" he's not even allowed to leave the US? And what are you basing your legal knowledge on here?

Chris Carpenter did not have labrum surgery that I know of...his was rotator cuff surgery

No he had labrum surgery.  I checked before I posted.     http://www.cbc.ca/sports/story/2002/09/02/carpenter020902.html

I don't know why everyone is so concerned about the 5th starter.  Past studies have shown that on average a 5th starter is lucky to have an ERA under 5.  I think Litsch is more than capable of providing that.

As a former canadian immigration officer I can pretty much assure you that Bonds would have little trouble going back and forth. As far as I know Bonds has no criminal convictions(its only convictions(not charges) which make a foreign national(US citizen) unable to enter canada. If an officer is of the opinion that someone with pending charges is running from the law they can also bar them entry into canada. However half of the NBA / CFL players have actual convictions and are almost always allowed to come and work in canada. They just have to buy a special permit allowing them to overcome the convictions.

And as for entering the USA, Bonds is a US citizen so he is not going to have to worry about that. I am no expert on US legislation but the only way it is an issue is if somewhere in the court proceedings or charges he was banned from exiting the country...but usually those types of limitations are only in place as part of an actual sentence to go along with a conviction...which he does not have as of yet.

"You can't take out 15% of someone's starts and say "without those..."  I will not believe in Litsch as a major league starting pitcher until I see him missing bats."

Glevin, look at any pitcher in history, you'll find that they struggled in their first handful of starts. My point is that Litsch has the mental toughness and the ability to succeed and he has already demonstrated both!

He got rocked in 3 of his first 4 starts (like every pitcher in history, even the great Halladay and Santana), but he came back to post a 3.20 ERA in his 16 starts since his second call-up! that alone earns him the 5th spot in the rotation!

As for his low K-rate, Halladay and Burnett had low K-rates in their first two seasons. A K-rate at age 22 isn't the final product! Besides, groundball pitchers like Wang and Carmona(like Moyer, Maddux and Kenny Rogers before them) have shown that pitching to contact is just as good as high K rates.

As for the Bonds idea, anyone who says that adding him doesn't make us instantly World Series contenders is kidding herself! There's no way Bonds and Stairs are superior options.

There's are issues no doubt(immigration issues, steroid scandal, high salary...) but these are issues JP and the boys can deal with or attempt to deal with.

How would the at-bats be distributed? Assuming each hitter ideally gets around 150 AB's vs lefties and 400 vs righties, the breakdown is as follows:

DH Thomas gets all 150 vs LHP and 200 vs the lesser RHP's=350.
Reed Johnson gets all 150 vs LHP only.
Stairs gets 200 vs the lesser RHP's as a LF.

That leaves 200 AB's for each the DH spot and the LF spot vs righties. These go to Bonds. Further, these would be against superior righty pitchers to allow for maximal effect for the rest of the lineup(ie. Bonds' OBP).

It also reminds us again why Ricciardi thought it a good decision to let Carpenter go. Given history to that point, it was highly likely Carpenter was never going to be the pitcher he was.

That and the fact that Carpenter would have made $2M+ to not pitch for the Jays in 2003 (can't cut salary more than 20% in arbitration) after which he would have been a FA anyway.  Since the Jays were dumping payroll this was a no brainer.

Thanks for that article.  I remember reading something distinctly different somewhere else where it was the rotator cuff involved and not the labrum.  But I guess if Carpenter himself said it that puts that to rest.

Let's see if another trade is in the works.

"He burst on the scene with a phenomenal outing and followed it up with 3 horrendous efforts (12ER in 9 IP). But he went back down to the minors and came back with 16 really good starts.
In fact, if you delete those 3 starts, he pitched 102 IP with a 3.08 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP."