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Features Over/Unders 2008
Another one of those little rites of Spring; the Vegas Over/Under lines for the year.



Arizona     	86.5
Atlanta        	84.5
Baltimore   	65.5
Boston        	93.5
Chicago(NL)    	87.5
Chicago(AL)    	79.5
Cincinnati    	79.5
Cleveland    	88.5
Colorado    	82.5
Detroit        	93.5
Florida        	68.5
Houston        	72.5
Kansas City    	71.5
Los Angeles(AL)	91.5
Los Angeles(NL)	87.5
Milwaukee    	84.5
Minnesota    	72.5
New York(NL)    93.5
New York(AL)    93.5
Oakland        	73.5
Philadelphia    87.5
Pittsburgh    	68.5
San Diego    	84.5
San Francisco   71.5
Seattle        	86.5
St Louis	78.5
Tampa Bay    	73.5
Texas        	74.5
Toronto        	85.5
Washington    	70.5


What say you Bauxites, if you were of a gambling persuasion where would you be putting your money ?

At first glance I like the over on Tampa Bay and Cleveland (8 wins worse than last year?) and the under on Detroit (they're good, but I'm not sure they're 94 wins good).

* Numbers from sportsinteraction.com

Posted by Gwyn on Monday, March 10 2008 @ 03:05 PM EDT.
Over/Unders 2008 | 26 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
Anders - Monday, March 10 2008 @ 03:25 PM EDT (#180828) #
Jason Stark has a nice piece on Glaus and Rolen - it's a bit puffy, but it's nice to see the Jays getting this kind of attention.

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/spring2008/columns/story?columnist=stark_jayson&id=3285915&lpos=spotlight&lid=tab2pos2
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zeppelinkm - Monday, March 10 2008 @ 03:40 PM EDT (#180829) #
Fresh off reading Magpie's article on the Braves, I'll take the over on them!
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Pistol - Monday, March 10 2008 @ 05:03 PM EDT (#180830) #
Without any 'cheating' I like:

* Cincinnati over 79.5
* KC over 71.5 (preview coming this week!)
* Milwaukee over 84.5
* Oakland over 73.5
* Pittsburgh over 68.5
* St Louis under 78.5
* Seattle under 86.5 (easiest under)
* Tampa over 73.5 (probably the surest bet)


If you have BP they have projected standings based on projected playing time and average PECOTA ratings:

BP really likes Tampa - they have them at 89 wins.  That seems way out there, but apparently defensive upgrades do a lot here.  Oakland (over), Seattle (under), and San Diego (under) are the only others with more than a 5 game difference between BP and the O/U.  I'm surprised at the SD one without giving it too much thought.
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Geoff - Monday, March 10 2008 @ 05:40 PM EDT (#180831) #
Very interesting to see Baltimore rated as the bleakest franchise in the game. Not surprising, but interesting. I understood they've been treading water for a few years, but it looks like this year, given the slightest bit of adversity (read: injury to what talent they have), they are certain to drown in the most horrific spectacle Baltimore has ever seen.

They shipped out two stars (Tejada and Bedard, fading and rising) for kids and now their ace is ...Daniel Cabrera? their fearsome veteran bat is ... Brian Roberts? Is Guillermo Quiroz actually going to make this team? Either Greg Aquino or George Sherril might close games? I understood that Baltimore was going down the tubes, but I'd largely ignored them to this point.

I'll take the under on the lowly O's and look forward to their upbeat season preview. It's going to be fascinating to follow the occasions when the O's will beat good teams this year, a certain mark of shame. Despite competition from Pittsburgh and Florida, the O's are your 2008 Bad News Bears. Tryouts held every Thursday.

In other news, Buck Coats did well today and Josh Towers did not.

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Anders - Monday, March 10 2008 @ 05:59 PM EDT (#180832) #
I think Pittsburgh was hit right on the nose - they've won 68, 67 and 67 games the last three years. More on this tomorrow though.
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CaramonLS - Monday, March 10 2008 @ 06:16 PM EDT (#180833) #

Excellent article on Sabermetrics and Brian Bannister embracing it.  Great read for the stat heads out there.

http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/news;_ylt=AlcYZ1xIR224M4tbqFWfAeoRvLYF?slug=jp-springbannister030808&prov=yhoo&type=lgns

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Alex Obal - Monday, March 10 2008 @ 06:16 PM EDT (#180834) #
The average team wins 81.033 games! There are opportunities for hedging!

I'll take Tampa Bay over 73, St. Louis under 79, and Seattle way under 86. In fact, I wonder what kind of odds they'd give on Tampa over Seattle...
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electric carrot - Monday, March 10 2008 @ 06:21 PM EDT (#180835) #
OK -- nobody's said it yet -- but I like the over on Toronto. In fact, I have been in touch with my man in Vegas ...

Aside from TO I like the over on Tampa and Atlanta and the under on Philly.
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seeyou - Monday, March 10 2008 @ 06:21 PM EDT (#180836) #
I notice Robinson Diaz spent some time at 3B in today's game.  Likely just a freak occurance to get him an AB, but perhaps they're going to try and get him some experience at other positions this year, especially with Thigpen likely getting most of the ABs at catcher in Syracuse.   Count me among those who like both Diaz and Thigpen, and would love to see a way to have them both contributing for the Jays in 2009/2010.
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Gerry - Monday, March 10 2008 @ 07:19 PM EDT (#180837) #
Seattle at 86.5 and St. Louis at 78.5 look high to me.  If Pujols has his elbow surgery then the under on St. Louis would be a lock.
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ramone - Monday, March 10 2008 @ 07:35 PM EDT (#180838) #
Anyone who's interested, MLB.tv is showing Yanks vs the Reds with a great pitching match up of Joba and Bailey, it's on right now.
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Alex Obal - Monday, March 10 2008 @ 10:42 PM EDT (#180842) #
Oh, and just to be original, here's one nobody else has yet. Colorado over 82.
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soupman - Monday, March 10 2008 @ 10:43 PM EDT (#180843) #
Am I the only one that thinks the Yanks at 93.5 is a little optimistic? In part because the Ray's wins are gonna have to come from somewhere.
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Mike Green - Monday, March 10 2008 @ 10:56 PM EDT (#180844) #
Tampa over 73.5 is easy.  I'd take the under on the Tigers and Mets.

FWIW, Rally also has the Rays at 89 wins.  I think that the figure is somewhat high, but it is interesting that BP and Rally agree.

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Geoff - Monday, March 10 2008 @ 11:18 PM EDT (#180846) #
Zito was horrible again today, taking the loss against Hideo Nomo and the Royals with this line:
3 2-3 IP  5 H   8 R   5 ER  4 BB  0 K

Is he really going to get worse this year? Is he destined to be the biggest waste of money in free agent history? (with a supplementary philosophical question of: what is worse, paying a lot of money to a player who doesn't play, or one who plays horribly with great durability? see Hampton, Mike and compare his contributions with Zito's in 2014)

Six more years of Barry's $18M per contract, while Vernon's big contract begins this year. So which is more likely to happen: Vernon wins two Gold Glove awards, or Barry wins one Cy Young award by 2014?

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KLSnow - Monday, March 10 2008 @ 11:30 PM EDT (#180847) #
I've used these projections to start a projection contest in the diaries over at BrewCrewBall.com - check it out and participate if you're interested.
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ayjackson - Tuesday, March 11 2008 @ 12:20 AM EDT (#180848) #

Oh, and just to be original, here's one nobody else has yet. Colorado over 82.

On that theme, I'll take Arizona UNDER 86.5 - the youngsters will come along nicely, but that division will be tightly bundled between 81 and 86 wins (Giants excepted).

And because I'm smart enough to never bet on a loser to win until they show me first, I'll take the UNDER on Tampa Bay.

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TamRa - Tuesday, March 11 2008 @ 05:00 AM EDT (#180852) # 
Atlanta        	84.5 - over
Cincinnati    	79.5 - over
Cleveland    	88.5 - over
Kansas City    	71.5 - over
New York(AL)    93.5 - under
Oakland        	73.5 - under
San Francisco   71.5 - under
St Louis	78.5 - under
Tampa Bay    	73.5 - over
Toronto        	85.5 - over
Washington    	70.5 - under
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braden - Tuesday, March 11 2008 @ 09:42 AM EDT (#180854) #

I'll take the under on the lowly O's and look forward to their upbeat season preview...

I'm currently writing the O's preview for da box, and let me tell you, it'll make Schindler's List look upbeat. 

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Leigh - Tuesday, March 11 2008 @ 10:52 AM EDT (#180855) #
A's and Nats over, Mariners under.
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Geoff - Tuesday, March 11 2008 @ 11:01 AM EDT (#180856) #
Apparently the Giants are going to have a very fun year, what with no Barry and Bengie Molina hitting cleanup. The O's of the West.
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melondough - Tuesday, March 11 2008 @ 11:43 AM EDT (#180857) #

Jamie Cambell reports that the Jays have signed Armando Benitez to a minor league deal and Janssen has been hurt.

http://www.sportsnet.ca/baseball/2008/03/11/jays_benitez_janssen/

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melondough - Tuesday, March 11 2008 @ 11:50 AM EDT (#180859) #

Maybe the stress of pitching more innings in a row then he has in the past two years is paying a toll on Janssen's arm.  This should convince JP that leaving Janssen in the bullpen is what is best for the team and his arm.    Here is a latest piece on the new development.

http://toronto.bluejays.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20080311&content_id=2418640&vkey=spt2008news&fext=.jsp&c_id=tor

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Mike D - Tuesday, March 11 2008 @ 01:17 PM EDT (#180860) #

I like expansion cousins Florida and Colorado to each go over.

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Andrew K - Tuesday, March 11 2008 @ 01:21 PM EDT (#180861) #

Just a note: today's spring training game is on YES, and also carried by mlb.tv. Come chat!

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R Billie - Tuesday, March 11 2008 @ 01:39 PM EDT (#180864) #

Janssen for me has always had an iffy delivery.  He really appears to be a max effort drop-and-drive kind of guy and that was really evident last year when he was airing it out in the pen, reaching low-90s with consistency as opposed to the 88-90 range he was at as a starter the previous year.

In 2006, eventually his back felt the stress of his delivery.  Now I have a hard time believing that after less than 10 innings in spring training, pitching at most three innings, his shoulder is going to give out just like that.  I think he's had some left over wear and tear from 2006 and from 2007, his first year of going full tilt out of the pen, often on back-to-back(-to-back) days.

Often the effect of heavy usage on a pitcher is not felt until the following year.  Damage, particularly to a shoulder area, tends to be cumulative and you don't notice it until something actually gives.

I don't think Janssen's role is so much to blame...starting is a different kind of stress but both are stressful.  I think he just heaves the ball at the plate with all of his might on every pitch and has a relatively complicated delivery despite his good control.  We have to keep similar eyes on all of the young pitchers as they follow up their first full year in the bigs.  Remember League's 2007 wasn't all sunshine and roses either and he was purely a reliever (though like Janssen he started coming up through the farm).

[ Reply to This ]
Over/Unders 2008 | 26 comments | Create New Account
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