The 2007 Tampa Devil Rays stand on the verge of accomplishing something unprecedented....
Sooner or later, it happens to everyone. Even the best of teams stumble and fall, and find them themselves losing 90 games. There are 30 major league teams, and none have escaped.
But the Devil Rays are special. They have never failed to lose 90 games. They've played nine seasons, and lost more than 90 games every time. Nine seasons in a row. That gives them a share of the major league record, and this year they'll try to match the all-time mark.
And here is your Data Table!
--------- 90 LOSS SEASONS----------
- the Athletics longest streak since leaving Philadelphia is three seasons, and they did it it in both Kansas City (1955-57) and Oakland (1977-79)
- the Orioles longest streak since moving to Baltimore is three (2001-03)
- the Braves never lost 90 games in Milwaukee, but they had a nasty five year stretch in Atlanta (1975-79)
- since the expansion Senators moved to Texas and became Rangers they've had consecutive 90 loss seasons three times, but never did make it three in a row.
- since the original Senators moved to Minnesota and became Twins, their worst stretch is four years in a row (1997-2000)
- the Mariners and Blue Jays were both well on the way to making it five straight 90 loss seasons out of the box, when they were spared by the 1981 strike. That's as far as it would have gone, as neither team lost that many games in 1982.
- the Red Sox, for all the whining that comes from Red Sox Nation, have now gone more than forty years without losing 90 games, the longest active streak of any team.
- the Giants never had consecutive 90 loss seasons while in New York (they never had a 90 loss season at all while McGraw was managing.)
- whereas the Dodgers have never had consecutive 90 loss seasons since leaving New York for California
- in case you're wondering, the Yankees played 53 seasons (1914-1966) without losing 90 games even once. Impressive, but we've got something even better...
- the Cubs never lost 90 games before 1948, and they've been playing since 1876. Granted, they were playing a much, much shorter schedule in the really early days. They first time they even played 90 games in a season was 1883. But by 1886, the schedule was more than 120 games, and that was the year the Cubs became the first team to win 90 games in a season (two other teams, Kansas City and Washington, were becoming the first 90 game losers. They're not on the above table which only includes active franchises.) So by my reckoning, the Cubs played 61 consecutive seasons before losing 90 games. They've made up for it since.
So the Devil Rays are on the verge of something quite remarkable. They can become the first American League team to ever lose 90 games ten years in a row, and match the Phillies major-league record. Needless to say, they already have the longest run of futility out of the gate for any of the post 1961 expansion teams - they left the 1962-68 Astros behind a couple of years ago.
Are they up to the challenge?
Well, after looking over their pitching staff for about ten seconds, I think you'd have to say.... you bet your ass they're up to it.
The Devil Rays have had some trouble finding pitchers, and then figuring out what to do with the few decent ones that do stumble across their transom. Until last season, Mark Hendrickson was the only pitcher in franchise history to have consecutive seasons of 10 or more wins. Lurch got off to a pretty good start last season, and was promptly traded lest he make it three seasons in a row. A few years back, they came up with a decent young right-hander named Victor Zambrano, who went 6-2 out of the bullpen as a rookie in 2001. The next year he was 8-8 as a swingman, and in 2003 he moved into the rotation. That year he went 12-10, establishing a franchise record for wins in a season that still stands, and in July of 2004 he had a 9-7 record when... they traded him away. You will notice that in his four seasons in Tampa Bay, Zambrano never had a losing record. On a team that loses 90 games every year, witout exception, that's quite the accomplishment.
I know what you're going to say. Trading Zambrano brought them Scott Kazmir, who has a chance to be way, way better. And Zambrano went and blew out his elbow a year later anyway. All true. But still... if you're having a terrible time finding and developing pitching, you can't give anything away. You've had this long line of endlessly talked out prospect position players - can't you cash in a couple of them for some guys who can pitch 190 innings and battle the league to a draw? Tampa did not have a single pitcher qualify for the ERA title last year, not a one - no one was able to pitch 162 innings. Kazmir led the group with just 144.2, in 24 starts. Casey Fossum made 25 starts, which led the team in that category. This year's team is counting on these two guys to lead the staff again this year.
Scott Kazmir, who only turned 23 in January, remains an extraordinarily exciting young talent. He was outstanding for the first three months of last season, and in July, he was named to the All-Star team for the first of (hopefully!) many times in his career. He put an exclamation mark on the whole thing by tossing a two-hit shutout against the mighty Red Sox, striking out ten. It was his 10th win of the season (second year in a row for him, and Kazmir joins Lurch in the team record book!) The Devil Rays won the next two games against Boston, and at the end of play on July 5, they were half a game behind the Orioles in their quest to Escape the Cellar - they were on pace to post a 72-90 record at that point, but with some second-half improvement...
However, Kazmir, who was still just 22 years old, had thrown 120 pitches in his complete game against Boston. He lost his next two starts, didn't win another game the rest of the year, and was shut down for the season in August with a "stiff shoulder." (Let's at least give the team credit for having enough sense to shut him down.) Tampa Bay went a dreadful 23-54 the rest of the way, and ended up losing more games than any team in the majors. Yes, more than Kansas City. Kazmir has been airing it out this spring, and says he feels great.
By the way, this will be Kazmir's third training camp with the Devil Rays, and by an amazing coincidence Jim Hickey will be the third pitching coach working with him (replacing last year's man, Mike Butcher, who replaced Chuck Hernandez.) Asked about it, Kazmir shrugged, and said in the minor leagues you get used to working with a different pitching coach every season.
Are we on to something? Playing for the Devil Rays is like playing for a minor league team? I know that's not what he meant, but...
Casey Fossum actually had surgery on his pitching shoulder last September, and is probably a little behind the other pitchers this spring (he didn't appear in a game until he worked one inning on March 12.) Even if he's ready, he's nothing to write home about - he's a slightly below average pitcher, who doesn't even eat up innings for you.
James Shields came up from the minors at the end of May and did a pretty commendable job for a rookie on a terrible team. He's got a nice fastball change-up combination that gets his strikeouts for him, and he has a decent idea of where home plate is located. He's got some upside, if he can get his curveball to where he can rely on it a little bit more.
Jae Weong Seo is pencilled in as the fourth starter. Seo came over from the Dodgers along with Dioner Navarro in the Hendrickson-Hall trade. He may have pitched better for Tampa than the 1-8 record suggests, but if he did, it wasn't by much. In 90 IP, he struck out only 39 men while getting tagged for 17 home runs.
When you're actually counting on people like Casey Fossum and Jae Weong Seo, it seems a little unfair to make them find yet another starting pitcher. You won't be surprised to learn that the Devil Fishies haven't quite identified their man yet. Two very young pitchers are still vying for the job - J.P. Howell, slightly built lefty who turns 24 next month, came over from the Royals last season; and Edwin Jackson, the one-time Dodger prospect, who is still just 23 years old himself. They're both having a good camp, and Jackson will probably make the team as a reliever if Howell is the fifth starter. Tim Corcoran and Jae Kuk Ryu may still be in the mix.
The Devil Rays thought that maybe Seth McClung, who has two very good pitches but not much else, might be best suited for a bullpen role. Consequently they announced early on their plan to install him as the Closer. Alas, McClung has been pounded relentlessly this spring, and the D Rays are already casting about for alternatives. Dan Miceli and Ruddy Lugo, who were both pretty decent in last year's pen, are still around. So is Shawn Camp. Jon Switzer and Brian Stokes might stick around.
While the Devil Rays have a lot of very interesting young talent scattered around the diamond, at this point they're not very good at actually putting runs on the scoreboard. The Rays scored 689 runs last season. That wasn't just the worst figure in the American League - it was the worst figure in the majors. That's right - all those teams that had pitchers hitting were still able to out-score Tampa Bay. Some fairly familiar faces - Travis Lee, Julio Lugo, and Aubrey Huff - are gone. Huff, who holds almost every offensive record in team history, and Lugo were among the few players who actually hit well for Tamkpa last season. The fact that they were traded in mid-season doubtless had something to do with last year's second-half collapse . On the bright side, they were able to get rid of Toby Hall at the same time, ridding themselves of a perennial drain on the offense and even acquiring a young player, Dioner Navarro, with a chance to be... well, an older player, at least.
So behind the plate, we will see Dioner Navarro, now with his fourth major league organization after being traded three times in eighteen months. Although he just turned 23 last month, Navarro already has 451 at bats scattered over parts of three seasons. The reviews of his defense are positive, and he should hit enough to not hurt the team. And he's still young enough to im[prove considerably.
Travis Lee went off the cliff last season, and this year first base will be handled by Ty Wigginton and Greg Norton. Wigginton, quite out of the blue, led the Rays in HR and RBI despite the fact that he didn't even have a regular position - he played 45 games at 1b, 43 at 2b, 34 at 3b and another dozen in the outfield. His 24 homers was a little unexpected, but otherwise he didn't really do anything with the bat he hadn't done before - he's a decent major league hitter, and obviously the fact that he can fill in at five positions makes him a terrific utility guy. On this team, it makes him the starting first baseman. Norton hit very well for Tampa last season, but there are eight other Norton seasons on record that strongly suggest that this guy is a journeyman for a reason - he just got hot for a while last summer. Also in camp this spring on minor league deals were those perennial disappointments, Carlos Pena and Hee-Seop Choi. Neither has hit a lick this month, and so neither has a hope of making the team
Jorge Cantu hit 28 HR and drove in 117 runs in his first full season in 2005, which is pretty decent production from your second baseman. Last year, injuries limited him to just 107 games and reduced his effectiveness when he was in the lineup. And the team is worried about his defense and his conditioning. He will be challenged by the team's new super-utility guy, a fellow named BJ Upton.
Upton, the super utility guy? Hang on. Didn't the Devil Rays finally trade Julio Lugo last year? Wasn't the way, at last, cleared for Upton to take over at shortstop? In a word... no. The shortstop will be Ben Zobrist, who came over from Houston when Aubrey Huff was auctioned off. Zobrist has a nice glove, but as a hitter so far all he's done is make Royce Clayton look like Albert Pujols. He'll be 26 years old in May, and in his first taste of major league action he rang up a .260 On-Base and .311 Slugging.
The new guy at third base is Akinori Iwamura, late of the Yakult Swallows. Iwamura was a five-time all star at home and won six Japanese Gold Gloves - in eight seasons, he hit .300 with 188 HR and 570 RBI. I generally expect Japanese players to maintain most of their batting average, but lose about half of their power when coming to North America. So that means I'm expecting something like .290 with 12 HR and 60 RBI. Not sure if that's quite enough for a third baseman. His defense will have to be very good indeed.
Iwamura is in Tampa, and Damon Hollins is off to Japan. The Devil Rays definitely get the better of that - Hollins hit 15 HR but otherwise was mainly a drain on a bad offense. No matter - the Future is here. Meet Delmon Young, everybody. He finally arrived last August, delayed by his own immaturity, and immediately started hitting. He cooled off some before the year ended, but wound up at .306 with 3 HR and 10 RBI. That was in 30 games, so the power is not very impressive, and neither is the fact that he drew exactly one base on balls. On the other hand, he was only 20 years old (he turned 21 last September.)
It took Rocco Baldelli a little longer than expected to make it back into the lineup after missing all of 2005. Once he returned he picked up exactly where he left off, resuming his growth and development as a player while playing pretty well in process. He's still just 25 years old, and last year he kicked his BAVG up over .300 and his slugging up over .500, while continuing to play a fine centre field. This year I'd expect him to crack 20 homers for the first time.
He's not the only one. Left fielder Carl Crawford, also just 25 years old, did not take a step forward last year after making significant improvements in each of his previous major league seasons. Crawford stayed exactly where he was, but that was still a pretty good place to be. The fastest man in the game hit .300 again, and posted career highs in HR, BB, OBP, and Slugging. His runs scored was down from 101 to 89, but Crawford was on base almost as exactly as many times in the two seasons, and his base stealing was as frighteningly efficient as ever (58 SB, caught just 9 times.) A fabulous young talent, an absolute treat to watch, and eligible for free agency after the 2008 season. When he'll be 27 years old, and Lord I wish I was his agent.
The DH will be Jonny Gomes, who got off to a great start last season, but then hurt his shoulder and endured a poor sophomore season (jinx? what jinx?) while attempting to play through the injury. If he's healthy, and supposedly he is, Gomes will hit. He might strike out 170 times, but he'll make up for it. Just keep him out of the outfield. Leave the comedy to trained professionals.
And finally, BJ Upton is expected to play all over the diamond. Because he's been unable to establish him defensively at any one position, they're going to take the pressure off by having him learn how to play four or five of them. Or something like that. So Upton takes over Ty Wigginton's role on last year's team. Maybe it'll work. There are plenty of precedents for something like this - players who first established themselves as kind of everyday utility guys who eventually settled in at one position: Tony Phillips, Jose Oquendo, maybe Placido Polanco. Still seems like a novel way to handle a 22 year old prospect.
So - the big question. Can the Devil Rays do it? Can they make it ten years in a row?
Of course they can - these are the Tampa Bay Devil Rays - but if Kazmir starts 30 games, it might be close. I hope Kazmir does have a fine and healthy season, so let's say 71-91, fifth place.
Sooner or later, it happens to everyone. Even the best of teams stumble and fall, and find them themselves losing 90 games. There are 30 major league teams, and none have escaped.
But the Devil Rays are special. They have never failed to lose 90 games. They've played nine seasons, and lost more than 90 games every time. Nine seasons in a row. That gives them a share of the major league record, and this year they'll try to match the all-time mark.
And here is your Data Table!
--------- 90 LOSS SEASONS----------
First Last Number of LongestA few notes on the preceding:
Team Time Time 90 Loss Seasons Consecutive Run
Phillies 1904 2000 37 10 (1936-45)
Devil Rays 1998 2006 9 9 (1998-2006)
Athletics 1915 1997 35 9 (1935-43)
Browns/Orioles 1905 2006 33 9 (1947-55)
Braves 1904 1990 29 9 (1904-12)
Red Sox 1906 1966 15 8 (1925-32)
Padres 1969 2003 13 7 (1969-75)
Astros 1962 2000 10 7 (1962-68)
Mets 1962 2004 18 6 (1962-67)
Cardinals 1895 1990 17 6 (1905-10)
Pirates 1890 2006 18 6 (1950-55)
Senators/Rangers 1961 2003 17 5 (1961-65)
Reds 1914 2003 14 5 (1930-34)
Tigers 1904 2005 16 5 (2001-05)
Senators/Twins 1903 2000 26 5 (1955-59)
Mariners 1977 2005 10 4 (1977-80)
Blue Jays 1977 2004 5 4 (1977-80)
Pilots/Brewers 1969 2004 14 4 (1969-72, 2001-04)
Expos/Nationals 1969 2006 10 4 (1998-2001)
White Sox 1921 1989 18 4 (1929-32)
Royals 1969 2006 10 3 (2004-06)
Cubs 1948 2006 20 3 (1960-62)
Rockies 1993 2005 4 2 (2004-05)
Marlins 1993 1999 3 2 (1998-99)
Angels 1961 1999 11 2 (1968-69, 1992-93)
Indians 1914 2003 13 2 (1914-15)
Yankees 1908 1991 6 2 (1912-13, 1990-91)
Giants 1899 1996 9 2 (1984-85)
Dodgers 1898 2005 11 2 (1904-05, 1908-09)
Diamondbacks 1998 2004 2 -
- the Athletics longest streak since leaving Philadelphia is three seasons, and they did it it in both Kansas City (1955-57) and Oakland (1977-79)
- the Orioles longest streak since moving to Baltimore is three (2001-03)
- the Braves never lost 90 games in Milwaukee, but they had a nasty five year stretch in Atlanta (1975-79)
- since the expansion Senators moved to Texas and became Rangers they've had consecutive 90 loss seasons three times, but never did make it three in a row.
- since the original Senators moved to Minnesota and became Twins, their worst stretch is four years in a row (1997-2000)
- the Mariners and Blue Jays were both well on the way to making it five straight 90 loss seasons out of the box, when they were spared by the 1981 strike. That's as far as it would have gone, as neither team lost that many games in 1982.
- the Red Sox, for all the whining that comes from Red Sox Nation, have now gone more than forty years without losing 90 games, the longest active streak of any team.
- the Giants never had consecutive 90 loss seasons while in New York (they never had a 90 loss season at all while McGraw was managing.)
- whereas the Dodgers have never had consecutive 90 loss seasons since leaving New York for California
- in case you're wondering, the Yankees played 53 seasons (1914-1966) without losing 90 games even once. Impressive, but we've got something even better...
- the Cubs never lost 90 games before 1948, and they've been playing since 1876. Granted, they were playing a much, much shorter schedule in the really early days. They first time they even played 90 games in a season was 1883. But by 1886, the schedule was more than 120 games, and that was the year the Cubs became the first team to win 90 games in a season (two other teams, Kansas City and Washington, were becoming the first 90 game losers. They're not on the above table which only includes active franchises.) So by my reckoning, the Cubs played 61 consecutive seasons before losing 90 games. They've made up for it since.
So the Devil Rays are on the verge of something quite remarkable. They can become the first American League team to ever lose 90 games ten years in a row, and match the Phillies major-league record. Needless to say, they already have the longest run of futility out of the gate for any of the post 1961 expansion teams - they left the 1962-68 Astros behind a couple of years ago.
Are they up to the challenge?
Well, after looking over their pitching staff for about ten seconds, I think you'd have to say.... you bet your ass they're up to it.
The Devil Rays have had some trouble finding pitchers, and then figuring out what to do with the few decent ones that do stumble across their transom. Until last season, Mark Hendrickson was the only pitcher in franchise history to have consecutive seasons of 10 or more wins. Lurch got off to a pretty good start last season, and was promptly traded lest he make it three seasons in a row. A few years back, they came up with a decent young right-hander named Victor Zambrano, who went 6-2 out of the bullpen as a rookie in 2001. The next year he was 8-8 as a swingman, and in 2003 he moved into the rotation. That year he went 12-10, establishing a franchise record for wins in a season that still stands, and in July of 2004 he had a 9-7 record when... they traded him away. You will notice that in his four seasons in Tampa Bay, Zambrano never had a losing record. On a team that loses 90 games every year, witout exception, that's quite the accomplishment.
I know what you're going to say. Trading Zambrano brought them Scott Kazmir, who has a chance to be way, way better. And Zambrano went and blew out his elbow a year later anyway. All true. But still... if you're having a terrible time finding and developing pitching, you can't give anything away. You've had this long line of endlessly talked out prospect position players - can't you cash in a couple of them for some guys who can pitch 190 innings and battle the league to a draw? Tampa did not have a single pitcher qualify for the ERA title last year, not a one - no one was able to pitch 162 innings. Kazmir led the group with just 144.2, in 24 starts. Casey Fossum made 25 starts, which led the team in that category. This year's team is counting on these two guys to lead the staff again this year.
Scott Kazmir, who only turned 23 in January, remains an extraordinarily exciting young talent. He was outstanding for the first three months of last season, and in July, he was named to the All-Star team for the first of (hopefully!) many times in his career. He put an exclamation mark on the whole thing by tossing a two-hit shutout against the mighty Red Sox, striking out ten. It was his 10th win of the season (second year in a row for him, and Kazmir joins Lurch in the team record book!) The Devil Rays won the next two games against Boston, and at the end of play on July 5, they were half a game behind the Orioles in their quest to Escape the Cellar - they were on pace to post a 72-90 record at that point, but with some second-half improvement...
However, Kazmir, who was still just 22 years old, had thrown 120 pitches in his complete game against Boston. He lost his next two starts, didn't win another game the rest of the year, and was shut down for the season in August with a "stiff shoulder." (Let's at least give the team credit for having enough sense to shut him down.) Tampa Bay went a dreadful 23-54 the rest of the way, and ended up losing more games than any team in the majors. Yes, more than Kansas City. Kazmir has been airing it out this spring, and says he feels great.
By the way, this will be Kazmir's third training camp with the Devil Rays, and by an amazing coincidence Jim Hickey will be the third pitching coach working with him (replacing last year's man, Mike Butcher, who replaced Chuck Hernandez.) Asked about it, Kazmir shrugged, and said in the minor leagues you get used to working with a different pitching coach every season.
Are we on to something? Playing for the Devil Rays is like playing for a minor league team? I know that's not what he meant, but...
Casey Fossum actually had surgery on his pitching shoulder last September, and is probably a little behind the other pitchers this spring (he didn't appear in a game until he worked one inning on March 12.) Even if he's ready, he's nothing to write home about - he's a slightly below average pitcher, who doesn't even eat up innings for you.
James Shields came up from the minors at the end of May and did a pretty commendable job for a rookie on a terrible team. He's got a nice fastball change-up combination that gets his strikeouts for him, and he has a decent idea of where home plate is located. He's got some upside, if he can get his curveball to where he can rely on it a little bit more.
Jae Weong Seo is pencilled in as the fourth starter. Seo came over from the Dodgers along with Dioner Navarro in the Hendrickson-Hall trade. He may have pitched better for Tampa than the 1-8 record suggests, but if he did, it wasn't by much. In 90 IP, he struck out only 39 men while getting tagged for 17 home runs.
When you're actually counting on people like Casey Fossum and Jae Weong Seo, it seems a little unfair to make them find yet another starting pitcher. You won't be surprised to learn that the Devil Fishies haven't quite identified their man yet. Two very young pitchers are still vying for the job - J.P. Howell, slightly built lefty who turns 24 next month, came over from the Royals last season; and Edwin Jackson, the one-time Dodger prospect, who is still just 23 years old himself. They're both having a good camp, and Jackson will probably make the team as a reliever if Howell is the fifth starter. Tim Corcoran and Jae Kuk Ryu may still be in the mix.
The Devil Rays thought that maybe Seth McClung, who has two very good pitches but not much else, might be best suited for a bullpen role. Consequently they announced early on their plan to install him as the Closer. Alas, McClung has been pounded relentlessly this spring, and the D Rays are already casting about for alternatives. Dan Miceli and Ruddy Lugo, who were both pretty decent in last year's pen, are still around. So is Shawn Camp. Jon Switzer and Brian Stokes might stick around.
While the Devil Rays have a lot of very interesting young talent scattered around the diamond, at this point they're not very good at actually putting runs on the scoreboard. The Rays scored 689 runs last season. That wasn't just the worst figure in the American League - it was the worst figure in the majors. That's right - all those teams that had pitchers hitting were still able to out-score Tampa Bay. Some fairly familiar faces - Travis Lee, Julio Lugo, and Aubrey Huff - are gone. Huff, who holds almost every offensive record in team history, and Lugo were among the few players who actually hit well for Tamkpa last season. The fact that they were traded in mid-season doubtless had something to do with last year's second-half collapse . On the bright side, they were able to get rid of Toby Hall at the same time, ridding themselves of a perennial drain on the offense and even acquiring a young player, Dioner Navarro, with a chance to be... well, an older player, at least.
So behind the plate, we will see Dioner Navarro, now with his fourth major league organization after being traded three times in eighteen months. Although he just turned 23 last month, Navarro already has 451 at bats scattered over parts of three seasons. The reviews of his defense are positive, and he should hit enough to not hurt the team. And he's still young enough to im[prove considerably.
Travis Lee went off the cliff last season, and this year first base will be handled by Ty Wigginton and Greg Norton. Wigginton, quite out of the blue, led the Rays in HR and RBI despite the fact that he didn't even have a regular position - he played 45 games at 1b, 43 at 2b, 34 at 3b and another dozen in the outfield. His 24 homers was a little unexpected, but otherwise he didn't really do anything with the bat he hadn't done before - he's a decent major league hitter, and obviously the fact that he can fill in at five positions makes him a terrific utility guy. On this team, it makes him the starting first baseman. Norton hit very well for Tampa last season, but there are eight other Norton seasons on record that strongly suggest that this guy is a journeyman for a reason - he just got hot for a while last summer. Also in camp this spring on minor league deals were those perennial disappointments, Carlos Pena and Hee-Seop Choi. Neither has hit a lick this month, and so neither has a hope of making the team
Jorge Cantu hit 28 HR and drove in 117 runs in his first full season in 2005, which is pretty decent production from your second baseman. Last year, injuries limited him to just 107 games and reduced his effectiveness when he was in the lineup. And the team is worried about his defense and his conditioning. He will be challenged by the team's new super-utility guy, a fellow named BJ Upton.
Upton, the super utility guy? Hang on. Didn't the Devil Rays finally trade Julio Lugo last year? Wasn't the way, at last, cleared for Upton to take over at shortstop? In a word... no. The shortstop will be Ben Zobrist, who came over from Houston when Aubrey Huff was auctioned off. Zobrist has a nice glove, but as a hitter so far all he's done is make Royce Clayton look like Albert Pujols. He'll be 26 years old in May, and in his first taste of major league action he rang up a .260 On-Base and .311 Slugging.
The new guy at third base is Akinori Iwamura, late of the Yakult Swallows. Iwamura was a five-time all star at home and won six Japanese Gold Gloves - in eight seasons, he hit .300 with 188 HR and 570 RBI. I generally expect Japanese players to maintain most of their batting average, but lose about half of their power when coming to North America. So that means I'm expecting something like .290 with 12 HR and 60 RBI. Not sure if that's quite enough for a third baseman. His defense will have to be very good indeed.
Iwamura is in Tampa, and Damon Hollins is off to Japan. The Devil Rays definitely get the better of that - Hollins hit 15 HR but otherwise was mainly a drain on a bad offense. No matter - the Future is here. Meet Delmon Young, everybody. He finally arrived last August, delayed by his own immaturity, and immediately started hitting. He cooled off some before the year ended, but wound up at .306 with 3 HR and 10 RBI. That was in 30 games, so the power is not very impressive, and neither is the fact that he drew exactly one base on balls. On the other hand, he was only 20 years old (he turned 21 last September.)
It took Rocco Baldelli a little longer than expected to make it back into the lineup after missing all of 2005. Once he returned he picked up exactly where he left off, resuming his growth and development as a player while playing pretty well in process. He's still just 25 years old, and last year he kicked his BAVG up over .300 and his slugging up over .500, while continuing to play a fine centre field. This year I'd expect him to crack 20 homers for the first time.
He's not the only one. Left fielder Carl Crawford, also just 25 years old, did not take a step forward last year after making significant improvements in each of his previous major league seasons. Crawford stayed exactly where he was, but that was still a pretty good place to be. The fastest man in the game hit .300 again, and posted career highs in HR, BB, OBP, and Slugging. His runs scored was down from 101 to 89, but Crawford was on base almost as exactly as many times in the two seasons, and his base stealing was as frighteningly efficient as ever (58 SB, caught just 9 times.) A fabulous young talent, an absolute treat to watch, and eligible for free agency after the 2008 season. When he'll be 27 years old, and Lord I wish I was his agent.
The DH will be Jonny Gomes, who got off to a great start last season, but then hurt his shoulder and endured a poor sophomore season (jinx? what jinx?) while attempting to play through the injury. If he's healthy, and supposedly he is, Gomes will hit. He might strike out 170 times, but he'll make up for it. Just keep him out of the outfield. Leave the comedy to trained professionals.
And finally, BJ Upton is expected to play all over the diamond. Because he's been unable to establish him defensively at any one position, they're going to take the pressure off by having him learn how to play four or five of them. Or something like that. So Upton takes over Ty Wigginton's role on last year's team. Maybe it'll work. There are plenty of precedents for something like this - players who first established themselves as kind of everyday utility guys who eventually settled in at one position: Tony Phillips, Jose Oquendo, maybe Placido Polanco. Still seems like a novel way to handle a 22 year old prospect.
So - the big question. Can the Devil Rays do it? Can they make it ten years in a row?
Of course they can - these are the Tampa Bay Devil Rays - but if Kazmir starts 30 games, it might be close. I hope Kazmir does have a fine and healthy season, so let's say 71-91, fifth place.
