I think J.P. only needs to find three more options and there will be nothing left to worry about for the rest of the year for Jays fans or the front office.

 No trades that need to be made, nothing left to do. He can begin his vacation April 1 knowing that backup plans A, B and C are already in place for any situation.

So what's left to do? Another reliever, another middle infielder and another starting pitcher. Then all the backup plans will have backup plans.

This looks like a good pickup. Zambrano has a good arm and seems to have made some progress with his control in 2005 (before he got injured). Another low-risk signing.

I agree about the middle IF situation. The thought of Royce Clayton and John McDonald splitting time is a bit depressing (I love how Ricciardi said "we're strong one through eight" the other day. Um, aren't there nine players in a lineup?). Anyone know what options might exist for an upgrade at SS (or possibly 2B) in spring training or mid-season?

Russ Adams.

Aaron Hill.

(With the acquisition of Ronnie Belliard or some other underappreciated second baseman)

    Here's the most intriguing quote from the Zambrano article:

"We're trying to keep McGowan, Janssen and those guys in triple-A," said Ricciardi. "What we're trying to do is have lots of veterans around to carry the load and make the kids force our hand."

   I predict that these will be among the toughest decisions that Ricciardi will have to make this season.  If he's got a veteran starter who is putting up a mediocre but adequate record after a few starts -- let's say an ERA of 5 or 5.5 and an average of five innings per start -- do you keep him in the rotation or do you call up a Janssen or McGowan or Marcum who might be putting up somewhat better numbers at Syracuse?   At what point does a kid "force our hand"?  None of the kids are going to tear up AAA with stunning numbers, but they might be a bit better than a veteran -- or a lot better -- if they're called up.

None of the kids are going to tear up AAA with stunning numbers

I'm not sure what you're basing this on.  All three of the guys you mentioned have had extended periods of stunning numbers in their minor league careers.  Why can they not, with a bit of experience, do that at the AAA level?  Heck, it can be argued that Marcum has already had a period of "tearing up" AAA.

Janssen (A-/2005): 4-0, 1.37 ERA, 38/4 K/BB
Janssen (A+/2005): 6-1, 2.26 ERA, 51/12 K/BB
Janssen (AA/2005): 3-3 , 2.93 ERA, 47/4 K/BB
Marcum (AA/2005): 7-1, 2.53 ERA, 40/10 K/BB
Marcum (AAA/2006): 4-0, 3.42 ERA, 60/9 K/BB
McGowan (AA/2003, pre TJ): 7-0, 3.17 ERA, 72/19 K/BB
McGowan (AA/2005, post TJ): 0-2, 3.34 ERA, 33/10 K/BB

All of these guys were forced into the majors prematurely in 2006 because of the injuries to the MLB pitching staff and the unexpectely poor performance turned in by Josh Towers.  This was damaging to (a) the development of these young pitchers and (b) the playoff chances of the Jays.  

Now, in 2007, instead of having to plug a young player in when they are not ready, the Jays have the luxury of giving guys like Janssen and McGowan a chance to experience success for an extended period of time at AAA rather than throwing them straight into the frying pan and hoping for the best. 

The "force our hand" thing is a bit of a judgement call, but I expect that a pitcher is going to have to be lights out at AAA before the Jays will consider cutting one of their veteran 5.00 ERA guys in favour of the kid.  Rather than having the kids post crappy numbers as they learn at the MLB level and burn up their service clock time, you use the cheap major league retreads instead.  And don't forget that all of these retreads have had some degree of success in the past.  There's always a chance some of them catch lightning in a bottle and have career years.  If that ends up happening, then your 2007 Blue Jays are going to the playoffs.

Depth, depth, and more depth.  Seems like a good idea to me.  The only thing down the road that might be a problem is room on the 40-man roster, but I guess the Jays will cross that bridge when they come to it.  You can see this already happening with the decision to DFA Ryan Roberts rather than keep him on the 40-man.

Nice low risk signing.  Zambrano always had significant control issues.  He's going to get a chance to work on these issues in a relatively stress-free environment while rehabbing.

Zambrano pitched well in his rookie year (but struggled in his second) in a relatively low leverage relief role.  Relief might be his future after TJ.

Did Zambrano have TJ surgery?  The media reports I've been hearing indicated that it was surgery on a tear in a tendon not a ligament (the UCL).  Don't know what the prognosis is for a tendon vs. a ligament injury.

According to the Jay's site Zambrano tore his flexor tendon.  He had previously had TJ surgery on his elbow so this was his second major surgery on the joint.

Russ Adams.

A possible but unlikely upgrade, given his minor- and major-league offensive numbers and apparent defensive woes. You'd have to put him at 2B and Hill at SS, which would further weaken the middle IF defensively. Honestly, I think Jays fans (and probably JP) have had enough of the Hill-Adams experiment.

A true upgrade would mean something like a decent SS who can provide 75-100+ more OPS than Clayton/McDonald. Or a decent 2B who can hit (which would compensate for the defensive downgrade that would occur as a result of moving Hill back to SS).


 

I bet Brad Arnsberg can fix Zambrano in ten minutes....

Mike Bordick
.274/.340/.382 (.722 OPS) - with Toronto
.232/.302/.365 (.667 OPS) - year prior

Chris Gomez
.282/.337/.346 (.683 OPS) - with Toronto
.251/.279/.354 (.633 OPS) - year prior

John McDonald
.290/.340/.323 (.662 OPS) - with Toronto
.204/.237/.344 (.581 OPS) - year prior

Ricciardi seems to have a good track record with veteran short-stops. It could be because playing in Toronto helps their offensive numbers, but we've seen Bordick, Gomez, and McDonald increase their OBP and OPS significantly from the previous year with a move to Toronto. Clayton could surprise people this year. Maybe that's just optimism taking over better judgement, but we've seen it before with players of similar or worse offensive talent acquired by Ricciardi. With JP, I'm comfortable in his judgement with two things: veteran short-stops and veteran catchers.

As for Zambrano, good signing. He has good stuff, and when healthy he keeps the ball in the park and has a very good strike out rate. This could be a sleeper signing for the Jays.

The other thing to remember with all these signings is that people like Okha, Thomson and Zambrano also might make good trade deadline bait if a Marucm, Janssen or McGowan comes through.

The only thing down the road that might be a problem is room on the 40-man roster

The Jays could still easily drop Hattig, Santos, Diaz, Machi, Roney, Houston, and Thorpe and either not risk losing them or it'd be no big deal if they did get claimed.

The online version is behind a subscriber wall, but the Post today reports that Zambrano had a second TJ in May.

With JP, I'm comfortable in his judgement with two things: veteran short-stops and veteran catchers.

I agree. But now JP now has a bigger payroll. Players like Bordick, Gomez, McDonald, Huckaby, Wilson and even Zaun were thrust into starting roles because of the slash-and-burn policy of the first few years of JP's tenure. (Perhaps not coincidentally, we didn't get anywhere near the playoffs during those seasons.)

Clayton and McDonald are both potentially useful bench players. But if the goal is making it to the postseason (which will likely require 95 wins), I think they fall short of what we need. I hope I'm proved wrong, but that's my perspective.

Realistically, I don't think it will be a situation in which one of the youngsters has to "force our hand".  I bet that at least one, probably two, of Burnett, Chacin, Thomson and Ohka will go down with injuries at some point in 2007.  At that time J.P. will have to call up the AAA starter performing the best.  If it's later in the season it may be Zambrano, if it's early on, it may be Marcum or McGowan.  Time will tell.

That raises an interesting question though.  Who will be in the rotation in AAA?  I'm guessing the rotation will consist of McGowan, Marcum, Ramirez, Janssen, and Towers, with Banks and Taubenheim being demoted to AA.  There may be quite a log jam if/when R.Romero is ready for AAA, Zambrano is nearing the end of his rehab, Taubenheim is knocking on the door and if Purcey comes around.  There is certainly a lot of depth which is never a bad thing.  And as mentioned before, it makes trades easier.

greenfrog,

I'm not going to throw out a bunch of stats, you can find Adams' numbers on www.thebaseballcube.com

He's been a decent hitter the last three years between AAA and the majors, except for 251 AB with the Jays in 2006.  Rookies have their struggles and usually they improve, perhaps Adams' was going through a sophomore slump.  About half of his errors were throwing errors, and a move to 2B should help with that.  I'm not suggesting that he'll be an all-star, but I do believe that Hill/Adams could be an overall improvement over Clayton/Hill.  I think a lot of people underestimate Adams.  He's a good athlete, he has soft hands, decent range and a strong work ethic. 

That raises an interesting question though.  Who will be in the rotation in AAA?  I'm guessing the rotation will consist of McGowan, Marcum, Ramirez, Janssen, and Towers, with Banks and Taubenheim being demoted to AA.  There may be quite a log jam if/when R.Romero is ready for AAA, Zambrano is nearing the end of his rehab, Taubenheim is knocking on the door and if Purcey comes around.  There is certainly a lot of depth which is never a bad thing.  And as mentioned before, it makes trades easier.

I don't see the point in demoting Banks to New Hampshire after he's already pitched a full season at AAA.  If he can cut his HR rate in half, then he's a decent back of the rotation starter.  I suspect that Ramirez will stay put in AA and Banks stays in the rotation at Syracuse, at least for the first few months of the season.  I also think the loser in the Marcum/Taubenheim battle for the last rotation spot at Syracuse will become the AAA swingman instead of being demoted.  Purcey goes back to AA for now, but I expect he will force his way back up with a strong performance.

 Bryan Smith has his top 75 prospects up on SI.com. He has Lind ranked 55th and says he combines Aubrey Huff's bat and Carlos Lee's glove. Travis Snider is ranked 56th and says he'll be the best slugger in the Mid-West league since Prince Fielder. I didn't see it posted anywhere else but I may have missed it.

I think that we'll likely see Marcum as the long-man out of the 'pen for the Jays and maybe put Towers as the long-man in Syracuse. His innings as a starter would probably be better spent on a pitcher who's still developing.

Timpinder: I've looked at Adams's stats. I don't find them encouraging. He's going to turn 27 this year. His career OPS is 759 in the minors, and 690 in the majors. Not good. And on a purely subjective basis, I've been unimpressed by his play. He seems overmatched at the major-league level and generally looks like a below average player.

Could he still turn into a player similar to Adam Kennedy or David Eckstein? Yes, possibly. But I think the Jays need to assume the odds are against it, and plan accordingly for 2007.

I think JP is using the pot of spaghetti method when it comes to  signing pitchers. You throw the pot of spaghetti against the wall and some of it is bound to stick; you sign enough pitchers, some of them are bound to win/stay healthy/have some success/not cost a lot of money. It ain't scientific and it ain't pretty but it might work.

I guess.

This is still a good signing. The Jays now have a ton of pitching depth which is always a good thing.

 

Are we supposed to cheer for Zambrano? I've done nothing but mock the Devil Rays all throughout their existence, focusing mostly on him, their long-term plan for 70 wins, and Jonny Gomes' attempts to play right field.

This doesn't seem right at all.

their long-term plan for 71 wins

That Season From Hell just won't go away, will it? .

It says here he had both a torn tendon and a torn ligament resulting in a second Tommy John.

If this is the case I'd be amazed if he does anything this year. T.J. usually has an 18 month rehab period (surgery May 2006). Gaining control of the breaking ball post surgery can be difficult especially for a guy who  had control issues pre-surgery.

Still you never know, maybe he can pull a Lieber like recovery, but I wouldn't hold my breath on this matter.

Blair on Zambrano.

"I didn't know what his status was, to be honest," the Toronto Blue Jays general manager said Wednesday"

I admittedly know nothing about the day to day operations of a General Manager, but it strikes me as troubling that this avenue was only brought to JP's attention after surfing the internet. If he found this opportunity by chance, what else is he missing out on?

This certainly tests the "GMs are approximately 7 steps ahead of the fan" theory.

I do appreciate the honesty, though.

If we signed Redman now, he'd be no more than our ninth best option for the rotation and could be as much as 12th best.

I'd rank Doc, AJ, Gus, Okha, Zam, Thomson, Janssen, and Marcum definately ahead of him and possibly Taubenhiem, McGowan and even Towers are, at least, his equal. Except for being left handed, there's not a single thing that recomends signing Redman to this team.

 

I heard Alex Anthopolous on the Swirsky show yesterday, he said Marco Pady saw Zambrano in VZ. he was hitting 88 MPH on the radar gun and his delivery looked good. He said that he usually hits 92 MPH on his fastball. It doesn't look like he might be too far off. Anthoploulous said he was hoping for Zambrano to be ready in May or June.

Rich Lederer continues his K, GB rate with double A pitchers today.  Davis Romero and Jean Macri find themselves in the right spot.  Of course, any analysis of pitching has to include control, but plotting performance in three dimensions is a little more challenging.  Romero would be in the right quadrant in all aspects, and has been throughout his minor league career.

JP not knowing Zambrano's status off the top of his head is understandable.  I could see a lot of GM's expecting calls from the agents of pitchers like Zambrano should they be available.  I suspect he expected the Mets to quickly sign him to a minor league deal, thus didn't think too much about it.  Given the other signings recently I'd bet JP just didn't worry about guys beyond his core and felt safe as was.

If I was Zambrano I would not be impressed with my agent not banging down the doors with all teams.  For a GM not to be aware without checking it out himself on a pitcher who has no contract in January seems bad on the agent. 

The $4 million option is nice.  Not too much, but could easily be 'thanks but no thanks' if he is hurt again.

Regarding Adams, I think his ceiling might be a Ryan Freel type career...

That may well be true, but I think the team should be more interested in his floor than his ceiling. Can he contribute to this team in a way that would meet minimal major league standards? So little is expected of him at this point that whom he has the theoretical capacity to ultimately morph into is of minimal import.

For fun, check out Royce Clayton's top 10 BBRef comparables.  Pee Wee Reese, Rabbit Maranville, Frank White, Davey Concepcion, Omar Vizquel...Usually players who are as poor offensively (and now defensively) as Clayton is have reduced playing time by age 33 or so.  Clayton's career OPS+ is 76, and he's almost had 8000 career PAs.  There aren't too many players in baseball history who were that poor with the bat and got that much playing time.  Bob Boone and Bill Mazeroski are close.

Ricciardi's comments that Marcum could stay up with the Jays in a bullpen role further complicates the positions in the pen:

certainties:  Ryan, League, Frasor, Downs

others:  Marcum, Rosario, Tallet, Romero, Accardo

I really like Romero, but it looks unlikely that he'd survive the cut, unless two of Marcum, Tallet and Accardo are optioned out to Syracuse.

As an aside, what is the status of players like Zambrano?  Are they non-roster invitees?  Do they only have to be added to the 40-man roster once they are added to the 25?  Interesting that Bernie Williams was only offered a minor league deal.

 

JP not knowing Zambrano's status off the top of his head is understandable.

I would think someone on the Jays should be on top of this even if it's not Ricciardi.  Zambrano was non-tendered - it was public knowledge that many people here talked about.  I would think the team would go through the list of all of those players the day that it happened to see if they were interested in them or not.  And I would think that they have some sort of board indicating who's a free agent, etc..  At the very least they could use the free agent tracker at ESPN.com.

And if the Jays didn't know about Zambrano for awhile I suspect it's probably a safe guess they didn't know Marcus Giles was likely to be non-tendered.  How much better would they be today to trade a C-level prospect for Giles (which would be more than nothing that the Braves ended up with) and offer him arbitration?  Giles/Hill looks a lot better than Hill / 3 headed SS rotation.

I don't understand why people are so upset with the Clayton signing. No, he's not a great hitter, but the Jays 1-8 are above-average. Plus Clayton can bunt well, his a great clubhouse guy and a solid defender (although sliding in that area). One of the things that really kept the 2006 Jays apart from a team like, say the 1992 Jays, was the lack of veteran leadership... battle-scarred veterans. (And pitching, but that's another topic) Clayton and Thomas should really help in that regard moreso than the average person realizes. And other teams have lineup weaknesses too. Boston is weak at second base. New York is lacking at first base.

For the longest time, the same old explanations have been given for signing 37 year old replacement level players to fill a starting role.  Veteran leadership.  "We're strong everywhere else, and one weakness won't cost us..."

Good teams generally don't do this.  Dustin Pedroia had a poor major league debut in 89 at-bats, but take a closer look.  He controlled the strike zone as he always has.  He had about the same pop as he always has.  His BABIP was a miserable .188 despite the fact that 22.5% of his balls in play were line drives.  Most importantly, he's 23 years old.  I have no idea whether he's going to hit .250 or .290, but I am pretty sure that he will be all right and getting better. 

Before the Thomas/Clayton acquisitions, this was not a young club.  Overbay, Glaus, Zaun, McDonald, Johnson and Wells all count as veterans in my book.  Hill hardly needs a veteran presence. 

The Thomson and Ohka signings look even better when you consider Armas just got $3.5 million from the Pirates.

Shaun Marcum and Brandon League earn a mention in the latest installment of Rich Lederer's minor league pitchers K and GB rate analysis. Both had excellent control to complete the trifecta.

I would have glady flipped a McGowan or Rosario for Giles.

Ugghh!  Were you one of the ones wanting Craig Wilson for Alexis Rios last year?  Oh well, I guess some people just like trading toolsy 24-year olds for marginal talent one year from free agency.  Sell low, buy lower.

 Rich Lederer also likes Ryan Houston, but dislikes Jamie Vermilyea.

 

Laugh now, but McGowan's going to be a #2 starter in the majors and the Jays' #3 in 2008, and Rosario's going to be the third best pitcher in the Jays pen this year.  (2.79 ERA, 6.21 H9, 0.43 HR9, 2.79 BB9, 10.71K9, 1.00 WHIP in AAA last year). 

I'd hold on to both of these guys.  Marcus Giles?  No way.

As Pistol pointed out above,  McGowan or Rosario would not likely have been required to pry loose Giles.  The Braves non-tendered him, as had been rumoured, and it is likely that a C prospect would have done the job.

It is really a mystery why no team was interested in Giles, given the escalating salaries in the free agent market.  Perhaps there was some information known to insiders.  Or it just might be that teams don't appreciate the value of a decent second baseman.  I won't get started on that hobby horse of mine.

Alex Rio's signed for 2.535M today says Rogers Sportsnet

Is that a good thing?  I don't think that you want your change up to be the same speed as a typical fastball, do you?  I thought that the real key was the difference in speeds between your change up and fastball.

It's a very good thing in that his regular change is that hard, meaning that his arm is that strong.

You normally don't want too pronounced a difference between your change and your fastball, because a change that is thrown too slowly actually will allow a hitter to catch back up.  There are pitchers who throw a "second change" or "change off their change"... Stu Miller was legendary at being able to do so.  These types of pitchers are rare, and the success of such a pitch depends on having the intermediate changeup to begin with.  (Miller probably threw a "fast" ball at around 80, a changeup at around 70, and a change-off-the-change at probably about 60 miles per hour, which is about the speed of Dave Bush's lollipop curve that we all remember - remember that slow, big-breaking curve?)

Your typical pitcher normally wants his change about 10 mph slower than his fastball, not too much more, because otherwise you're easing up on your change and that will allow the hitter to pick up on it because the reduced effort in your motion will tip the pitch - and the changeup is the one pitch that you must never, ever tip.

What I'm alluding to is the fact that Tony Armas Sr. played for the Pirates.

I couldn't remember this at all... I remembered Armas Sr. as an A, and even more as a Red Sock, and as a grossly underperforming millionaire with the Angels.  But a Pirate?

Sure enough, Armas came up as a Pirate.  He played all of four major league games there and had the grand total of two hits, all after the 1976 pennant race was over.  I somehow don't think that's worth much to the Pirates fans.

This is just another case of the Pirates making a poor move (they have lots of young SP talent) and of the Pirates having to grossly overpay to attract anyone to the Wreck of the Medusa clone that is PNC Park.