Trevor Hoffman: hall of famer?

In 13 full seasons, including this one, he has ERA+'s of 107, 161, 105, 178, 146, 258, 205, 143, 117, 140, 174, 130, 205 for an average of 159. The all-time leader is Pedro, with 166, and Lefty Grove is second at 148 (minimum 1000IP - Hoffman is currently at 822 at age 37).

Let's take a look at that other reliever who just got inducted, Mr. Sutter. He had 10 full seasons with ERA+'s of 143, 327, 127, 185, 149, 136, 126, 86, 226, 86 with a couple of short seasons at the end with 92 ad 78. His lifetime ERA+ is 136.

It certainly looks like Hoffman has been better than Sutter, though there are certainly other factors to consider, such as the role of the closer as it as developed over the years. I say he's a definite HoFer.

Sutter is an oddity for the HOF who will not be viewed well by history, so using him as a comparison point isn't the best.

Eck is viewed as the best peak, from 1988 to 1997 he saved between 19 and 51 games (19 was the strike year).  His ERA+ had one year below 100 and a peak of 606 (0.61 ERA vs league of 3.72).  From top to bottom his ERA+ figures were...
606, 237, 196, 160, 130, 129, 107, 104, 100, 90

Hoffman?  11 years of 20+, 6 of 40+ plus this season.  His ERA+ in decending order...
258, 205, 178, 174, 161, 146, 143, 140, 130, 117, 105 plus this year

Even counting his rookie year (just 5 saves) and his injured year (just 9 IP) he has yet to be below 100 for ERA+.  No one reaches Eck's top 606 ERA+, but Hoffman is better than Eck once you go beyond the top 3 seasons when using that measure.  In fact, it isn't even close. 

Now, what about near HOF'ers?  Lee Smith for instance, the guy who's record was just taken away from him.
His ERA+ was sub 100 just in his final season (got his butt kicked as an Expo).  His ERA+ by order for seasons as a closer (20+ saves)...
231, 188, 159, 152, 148, 138, 136, 131, 131, 116, 109, 107, 102 plus a 139 with 17 saves  in '82.
Very steady, but Hoffman is ahead imo.  Actually, surprising to see just how good Smith was for someone most of us never noticed at the time.  7 time All-Star, 4 times led in saves but was fairly hidden despite spending the core of his career for the Cubs then some time with the Red Sox.  One wonders if he'd have got 500 if Cincinnati didn't use him as a setup man for Brantley  &  Shaw.  No idea why Cincinnati traded for him that year.  He played just one more season after that.

To me Hoffman should be a lock.  500 saves is to me a solid standard and he'll be there next year most likely.  400 could let some non-HOF quality in but 500 should be high enough that no 100 ERA+ guys sneak in (takes 10 years of 50 saves, or 20 of 25 saves, unlikely a team would let a poor closer get that many chances).  Funny thing is I used to think that of 300 back in the 80's but now there are 19 before this season with that many and Jose Mesa is no HOFer in my mind.

Btw, for the Jays fans here - Henke has a lifetime ERA+ of 156   His only time he was sub 100 was his last year pre-Toronto, without which he might never have been here. 

However, don't forget that Doug Jones has a 130 ERA+ thus showing that 300 saves and a good ERA plus does not a high caliber player make.  He has a stretch for ERA+ like this - 153-75-182-86-199-98-113-229-99.  Now _that_ is inconsistant. 

Hoffman has been durable and consistent, and has thrown 820 innings in his career.  I don't know whether he belongs in the Hall of Fame.  That's something that I will have to think about. So, Hall Watch 2006 will look at two things, leadoff hitters and closers.

Oh, nice bookending theme possibility there ... the guy who hits first and the guy who's on the mound for the final out.

Next: cleanup hitters and middle relievers, or "Why Big Papi makes more than Terry Forster ever did, even though they're shaped the same."

 

HOFfman

"Why Big Papi makes more than Terry Forster ever did, even though they're shaped the same."

And even though Forster has a higher career batting average.  So many mysteries, so few days.