In part 1 and part 2 of this preview you were asked to forecast if the Jays runs scored and allowed will be better or worse than 2005. Based on those numbers predict a win total for 2006. Try to be consistent with your runs predictions, if you predicted runs scoring to go down and runs allowed to up, then you probably shouldn't predict more wins.
Finally what is your biggest worry, or the biggest risk to your win forecast?
Rob - Well, my predicted runs scored and allowed figure to be about 89-90 wins. Subjectively, I think the Jays will do better than that, but I wouldn't be surprised to see a total in the mid-80s. Let's go with 92 wins and second place in the East. Take that, New York!
My biggest worry, though, is the starting pitching. If Burnett is healthy all year, and if Lilly puts it together and if Towers and Chacin can repeat 2005 and if Kevin Mench doesn't hit another line drive...I haven't seen that many if statements in a while, and I'm a math student.
Mike G- Let's see, I've said 800 runs scored and 750 runs allowed. That's anywhere between 80 and 90 wins depending on how they fare vs. Pythagoras. Ryan should help them win their fair share of close games this time, so 85 wins.
Dave Till: I'm too lazy to calculate runs scored and runs allowed.
I think that the Jays are a year away. Both the Yankees and Sox are likely to collapse soon, but I don't see both of them crashing and burning this year. I predict that the Jays will finish second with 89 wins (with the Yanks third, due to sudden aging), but won't make the wild card. They'll be close, though, and it'll be an entertaining season. I'm glad I have a Season's Pass.
My biggest worry, by the way: the Jays are counting on Aaron Hill for a lot. (Actually, with the Burnett tweak in spring training, I think I've already had my biggest worry.)
Matthew E: Let me put it this way. I thought at the time that, going into the season, the 2004 Jays looked better than I now think this year's bunch does. And we know how that turned out.
Not that I'm not optimistic. I am. It's just that my optimism doesn't make me feel any better.
To look at the big picture... It seems like this was Ricciardi's plan upon being hired:
1. Since the team wasn't going to win, reduce the payroll and start investing in the future.
2. Hold the line for a few years, competing as much as possible while saving money and building a core of players.
3. Once the core of players is set up as desired, then and only then spend money to put the team over the top.
4. Win.
From the Jays' actions this off-season, we can say that they believe themselves to be at step 3. Which leads us to a couple of questions.
First question. Are Halladay, Wells, Lilly, Towers, Speier, Frasor, Catalanotto, Hillenbrand, Adams, Hill, Hinske and Rios really the core of a championship team?
Second question. Are Glaus, Overbay, Molina, Ryan and Burnett enough to put a team over the top?
I'd think long and hard before answering 'yes' to either of those questions.
And yet, the Jays are better than last year. Boston and New York are on the way down, at least a little. And, in baseball, change can happen suddenly, drastically and unexpectedly. We could be sitting here in October wondering why we ever doubted that the Jays would finish first. It is all, as they used to say, onsartin.
Oh, yeah. A win total. I don't know. Somewhere between 20 and 142. Let me offer this guess, not as a prediction, but as something I want to be right about if it happens: 95 wins and first place in the East.
And what am I worried about? I am worried about everything.
Magpie - We're all sitting here, waiting patiently for the Beasts of the East to come back to earth. While either could crash and burn at any time, it seems too much to ask it of both of them. I think Boston will fall first (but the Yankees will fall further, when they do!), and I think Toronto can slip into second place. They probably won't win enough games to play in October, though. I have the 89-91 range in my mind, so I'll say 90-72, second place. And they will make the Evil Empire pay attention...
Pistol: - Based on my runs scored and runs allowed I came up with 90 wins.
Other than a Halladay injury I really don't have too many concerns about the team. As I mentioned in the offense preview last week the team has a lot of depth. Losing Glaus and Wells would hurt a little, but it wouldn't hurt the Jays all that much in the short term. Hillenbrand could slide into third and Rios could slide into center. It'd take a lot of injuries to put a dent into this team.
Also, depending on how you view greenies and the available current alternatives, the depth of teams could come into play more this season. The Jays seem to be a little bit deeper and younger than their rivals.
Jonny: With runs scored going up by a bigger margin than runs allowed, I'm looking for these Blue Jays to win 90 games.
I wouldn't call this a safe prediction - It doesn't require anybody to explode, but it does require that nobody implode, or at least that the bad surprises be balanced by good surprises. It's guaranteed that every baseball team will have some players underperform reasonable expectations. Even the reigning World Champs, heralded by many for having had everything go right for them, saw their incumbent closer pitch so badly he was demoted to the minors and then released outright. But I think the Jays have enough upside potential to balance the downsides.
Risk? It's all risk! But I guess at the top of my list is that while the Jays are otherwise a good-depth, no-glaring-flaws kind of team, I don't see them being able to fill the void which a significant injury to Roy Halladay, Troy Glaus, or B.J. Ryan would create.
Where will 90 wins leave the Jays? Right in the thick of things at the top of the East and in the wild card hunt. Both Boston and New York have enough flaws that I don't expect either to run away with the division. Across the league I see just a few pushover teams and a lot of potentially very good squads, which is why I expect the wild card team to tally fewer wins than in recent years.
Gerry: The crystal ball says 88 wins, 88-74. That should be good for second place, ahead of whichever of the Yankees or Red Sox blow up good. My worry is the most obvious one, health. Over the off-season the Jays traded Dave Bush and Zach Jackson, and converted Shaun Marcum and Dustin McGowan to the bullpen. There is now little high level depth in the system. After Scott Downs the next starter would be making their major league debut. Four of the five AAA starters have never pitched in AAA. If the injuries were to occur later in the year the concern would be less, but the Jays pitchers in Syracuse are raw.
