Batter's Box Interactive Magazine - You be the Manager- the Nervous Ninth

Batter's Box is pleased to introduce a new feature- You be the Manager. From time to time this season, we will post a difficult managerial hypothetical situation, and you, our loyal readers, will give us your answers. You may not always be the Manager of the Blue Jays in our hypotheticals, but you will always be in charge!

That means doing any research you think is necessary, and explaining your decision. On to our first situation: the Nervous Ninth.

It's 3 weeks into the season, and the Jays sit at 13-7 and tied for the division lead with the Yankees. Roy Halladay starts for the Jays against Randy Johnson in a Friday night game opening a series in Yankee Stadium after a Thursday off for both teams. Halladay has previously made 4 fine starts, sits at 3-0 and in his last start went 8 innings and threw 95 pitches. He seems to be showing no ill effects of his leg injury. The Yanks score first in the second inning when Jason Giambi slams a double off the centerfield wall and Hideki Matsui follows it up with a double up the left-centerfield gap. The Jays take the lead in the top of the 5th on a 2 run homer by Aaron Hill and Halladay makes the lead stand up through 8. His line at that point is 4 hits, 2 walks and 7 strikeouts, and has thrown 80 pitches. In the bottom of the 8th, he sets down Jeter, A-Rod and Sheffield in order on 2 Ks and a groundout. His mechanics look absolutely perfect. B.J. Ryan, who has been unscored upon in 5 appearances during the season with 6 strikeouts in 5 innings, warmed in the pen in case of trouble, but there was not even a thought of it in the eighth.

Johnson sets the Jays down in the top of the ninth and sets the stage for the rousing bottom of the ninth. The Jays lead 2-1. Giambi (who's 1-2 with a walk), Matsui (also 1-2 with a walk) and Posada (1-3) are due up. So, your questions for the day are:

a. who starts the ninth- Halladay or Ryan?

b. if you decided to leave Halladay in and Giambi draws a walk on a close 3-2 pitch, who faces Matsui?

c. would your answers have been different if the Yanks' run had been scored on doubles by Jeter and A-Rod?

d. would your answers have been different if the score was 3-1? 1-0?

Over to you, Bauxites.

Posted by Mike Green on Friday, March 24 2006 @ 11:27 AM EST.

You be the Manager- the Nervous Ninth | 58 comments | Create New Account

The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.

Jim - Friday, March 24 2006 @ 12:03 PM EST (#143285) #

My question is.. is it mathmatically possible to have 7 ks and 2 walks through 8 and only have thrown 80 pitches against a team as patient as the Yankees? :)

Pistol - Friday, March 24 2006 @ 12:12 PM EST (#143286) #

a. Halladay

B. My original thought was Halladay to try to get the groundball on Matsui, but upon further thought I like the idea of going with Ryan as it'd be tougher for Matsui or Posada after him to hit a HR. In Yankee Stadium a homerun down the RF line is always a possibility and the lefty comes in handy late in the game.

If the game was at the RC my answer is probably Halladay.

C. No

D. No.

VBF - Friday, March 24 2006 @ 12:13 PM EST (#143287) #

A) Halladay

B) BJ Ryan. Both own Matsui lifetime, but Matsui's seen Doc at least three times today. Bring in Big Time BJ. Chances are Yankee Stadium is rocking, you can also slow any momentum.

C) Yes. Giambi has hit Doc really well in his 45 career at bats. Unfortunately, ESPN is not showing anybody's splits, so it's a weak reason.

D) No.

Keith Talent - Friday, March 24 2006 @ 12:24 PM EST (#143288) #

a) Halladay
b) BJ
c) No
d) No

Craig B - Friday, March 24 2006 @ 12:32 PM EST (#143289) #

Ryan has only made 5 appearances through three weeks. He's rested, he's ready, he hopefully isn't rusty (that's not much work), he's the closer, and Roy would be free to pitch on three days' rest if he wished to do so. My overall strategic thinking would be that I'd like to offer Roy the opportunity to work on three days' rest if he's open to it; I know he prefers it.

a. Ryan pitches the ninth.

b. Halladay would stay in - if I'm gonna go with him, I'm gonna go with him to win or lose the game unless he starts doing stuff wrong. I don't send Arnie to visit, either, unless a second runner reaches base.

c. No.

d. No.

Now what's left unsaid (when Halladay asks why he was pulled, I say I need Ryan to work and it's his job to close games) is that I also need to limit the effectiveness of Giambi and Matsui, the first two hitters in the inning. The #1 job in a one-run game is to keep the leadoff hitter off base, and Giambi and Matsui are lefthanders, so Ryan will obviously be more effective, especially because he dominates lefties. So here, the game-level (tactical) situation complements the team-level (strategic) situation. I'm lucky here; it's not always going to be this easy. (I think this is a relatively easy decision).

These decisions all fit together. Managers need to think about these things long before the season starts... as the roster comes together in February and March, these are the game-level decisions that need to be considered. Once April comes, the decisions all need to have been considered two, three, eleven times, because trying to balance everything properly on the fly is nearly impossible - you'll make a strategic mistake somewhere, overlook something important. I took about 90 seconds to decide on this course of action. In real life, you don't *have* 90 seconds to make a decision, you have five.

You can't build a roster (and make team-level decisions) without considering the game-level decisions that impact on it. BJ Ryan is the closer, JP and I gave him the job, it's the job he was brought here to do. It's April. It's cold. AJ Burnett isn't here yet, so we're short a starting pitcher. 80 pitches is enough work, especially if my team-level strategy (how do I convince these guys to work in a four-man rotation) is considered. I will already have gone through the circumstances a dozen times in my head, about the general situations in which I will pitch Halladay late in the game, or pull him... who I would pull him for, who the hitters might be, etc.

With April nearly at an end, I am facing the end of the extra off-days and will now have to use a fifth starter pretty much all the time. I don't have a fifth starter because Burnett has missed time... my four guys I will have been using all season so far (Halladay, Lilly, Chacin, Towers) were supplemented by a spot start from Downs here or there but really going forward I'd like to avoid pulling Downs out of the pen or someone out of Syracuse to throw into a regular rotation role. I've been hoping to set up my rotation the right way to get the team pointed in the right direction. This just gave me the opportunity.

Gerry - Friday, March 24 2006 @ 12:32 PM EST (#143290) #

Halladay

Halladay, Matsui hits well against lefties and Halladay has a better chance of getting a DP. Also it's a Fridat night game so there are two other games for Ryan to potentially save against the Yankees.

No

No

If it was Towers, Chacin or Lilly I might go with Ryan, but you don't pull your ace after 80 pitches.

Ducey - Friday, March 24 2006 @ 12:54 PM EST (#143291) #

"Giambi and Matsui are lefthanders, so Ryan will obviously be more effective, especially because he dominates lefties"

Matsui and Giambi are both lefties but Matsui went .354/.393/.579 vs LH last year and .281/.354/.455 vs RH

Having said that I would bring in Ryan. Ryan has a better chance with Giambi based upon splits. He is a different look for Giambi who already almost homered vs Doc. Get the first out. Even if Matsui gets on, Posada has not been the same since he took that ball in the face in Spring Training.

It is a long season. Doc is at 80 which is great. If he is throwing 95 pitches in April in cold weather, I'm not so sure I need him doing that when I have good closer.

I would go with Ryan in the other scenarios.

Cristian - Friday, March 24 2006 @ 01:01 PM EST (#143292) #

The other variable that isn't discussed is how the three batters have looked against Halladay in the game. If they have been getting good cuts all game or if Halladay has been saved by his defence, I go to Ryan. If they have looked hopelessly lost, then Roy gets the opportunity to finish what he started.

Cristian - Friday, March 24 2006 @ 01:05 PM EST (#143293) #

I would make a horrible manager because I would have already forgotten how the Yankees scored their run earlier in the game. Let me change my answer. Roy ALWAYS gets the opportunnity to finish his starts.

King Rat - Friday, March 24 2006 @ 01:09 PM EST (#143294) #

I stick with Halladay through the at least the first two scenarios. He hasn't thrown a lot of pitches, I know he has his good stuff, and he's a pitcher, in the second scenario, who can get you a double play.

If Matsui singles, say, and now I have a first and second or first and third situation, I might consider going to Ryan to face Posada, but even there I think I might stick with Doc. And no, I wouldn't change my thinking if other hitters had scored the run or if the score was different.

greenfrog - Friday, March 24 2006 @ 01:12 PM EST (#143295) #

a. I would stay with Halladay, mainly because he's such a great pitcher. Ryan is obviously the closer, and a very good one (so far), but Halladay has superior control, which minimizes the chances of walking the high-OBP leadoff man (which would bring the winning run to the plate). Roy is also a tremendous competitor; he elevates his game when it really counts. His pitch count is low. He's a groundball pitcher, with three slow-to-average runners coming up.

This is no slag on Ryan, who will get ample high-pressure save opportunities throughout the season.

b. Halladay, for the reasons cited above, in addition to Matsui's L/R splits cited earlier (although I'd like to see Matsui square off against Ryan, who isn't exactly your typical left-hander).

c. nope

d. nope

Mike Green - Friday, March 24 2006 @ 01:12 PM EST (#143296) #

Here are Matsui's 3 year splits. He doesn't seem to be one of the very rare reverse platoon players, but perhaps has a smaller platoon differential than most.

greenfrog - Friday, March 24 2006 @ 01:15 PM EST (#143297) #

ps I think the real test will come in similar situations when Roy is pitching well but has thrown, say, 105-110 pitches through 8.

Jonny German - Friday, March 24 2006 @ 01:17 PM EST (#143298) #

I ultimately went with Halladay. Getting through the first game without using Ryan or Schoeneweis gives the Jays a leg up for the next two games, as they shouldn't have to have Burnett or Towers or Frasor or Chulk face the scary lefties in an important situation. (Speier can handle 'em).

Geoff - Friday, March 24 2006 @ 01:18 PM EST (#143299) #

Matsui is 2-19 in his career vs Ryan, and 1-7 last year with 1 HR, 2 RBI and 2 K.

But Ryan was poor against BOS and NYY last year overall..

ERA 	WHIP 	BAA
5.87 	1.57 	.324 	 vs. BOS
6.23 	1.73 	.273 	 vs. NYY

That said, I also believe it's important to hold Halladay back when possible, because giving him 260 innings like in 2003 is asking for trouble. Yet, he's a fierce competitor and will be hurt by being held back too much.

Ryan doesn't have a great track record in Yankee stadium:

8.10 	1.86 	.279 	 in 16.2 innings

but he will be expected to perform there with the dough he's raking in. I'd say bring Ryan in for the ninth and give him the ultimate test. He's in position to succeed, despite his record, and if the manager figures he's as ready as he's ever gonna get, he needs the test here most of all.

Geoff - Friday, March 24 2006 @ 01:51 PM EST (#143300) #

And in response to c. and d., it makes little difference who had done the scoring to me and I would reconsider leaving Halladay in to close out the game if it meant a shutout to him. Unless Roy pays absolutely no attention to counting shutout stats, but I believe he does. If it meant a lot to him and he looked really good, it would bear a second thought.

In this case, it's not just about winning the one particular game and it's not a big deal if you bring in Ryan for two (possibly three) games for a weekend series in New York. If you can't bring him in to Yankee Stadium here, when will you test him?

I might avoid having him face Sheffield (4 for 6 career) with the game on the line until he's more settled in at Yankee Stadium, and Posada has hurt him, but Ryan needs to know he can mow these guys down here. There is no bigger test for him than facing two lefties and a switch hitter in a one-run game, closing for Halladay. Unless it was the heat of the playoff race, but hopefully you've tested him before then. It would be an important confidence-builder and a necessary step for the season, unless you don't think you would ever bring Ryan in here.

jjdynomite - Friday, March 24 2006 @ 02:27 PM EST (#143302) #

I agree with Geoff 100%. Why not fire up a $50 million stud closer and fire him up in the process? This is not Batista we're talking about anymore. Even if his record wasn't that great against the Spankies last year.

If BJ does well in this game his conference will be high for the next two games and the following series against solid teams like LAA, BOS and OAK. The Jays also play the Yankes and BoSox 10 times in the last two weeks of the season, so every pressure situation Ryan has against the Jays' two biggest rivals (in a less pressured environment than the last two weeks) is worthwhile.

Of course, if a shut out/no hitter/perfect game for Doc is on the line, that's another matter entirely.

So, a.b.c.d. Ryan.

P.S. Maybe I'm just excited to see BJ's stuff in a BJ uniform. Yeah, probably.

jeff - Friday, March 24 2006 @ 02:33 PM EST (#143305) #

First of all, I like this new feature, so much so, I am compelled to reply.

I would throw all the statistical, left-right match-up stuff out the window and focus solely on how Halladay is recording his outs. If, in the eighth he is kept his pitch count to the previous established rate of approximately 10 per inning, he starts the ninth. If it took him 20 pitches to record the two strikeouts and ground out, whether by going deep into counts or hitters fouling of pitches, I would go with Ryan because Halladay is no longer dominating the hitters and showing signs of fatigue.

If I do bring out Halladay in the ninth, again I am watching him to do see if the hitters are getting closer - that is deeper counts, more foul balls or hard hits (whether base hits, outs or foul balls). If he shows any sign of struggling, I pull him on the first runner to get on base.

Another aspect I would factor in is Ryan's previous workload. If Ryan hasn't pitched in a couple of days, I would be more apt to bring him in and give him some work. If he had pitched in the previous two days, I would give Halladay a longer leash, so Ryan could get the rest.

TangoTiger - Friday, March 24 2006 @ 02:39 PM EST (#143306) #

Those head-to-head matchups are mostly irrelevant.

The most-important is the "true" platoon splits by hand, and the next one is by groundball/flyball. (Not simply what they did last year.) I'll guess that Doc is a GB pitcher, while BJ is FB, and that those three hitters are all FB?

Doc is facing those guys a 4th time, which puts him at a disadvantage. But he is pitching well (80 pitches on 30 batters!), so there is some carryover. BJ hasn't pitched in a while, so that is good too.

I'd go with BJ.

fozzy - Friday, March 24 2006 @ 02:45 PM EST (#143307) #

After some hemming and hawwing, I elected to go with the Doc to close out the game. He's got the Yanks looking like fools, and the (presumed) entirety of the bullpen waiting in case he shows any signs of wavering. The season is young, Doc is on fire and the pitch count is really quite low.

Even if Doc still blows the win in the 9th, you've got your ace closer waiting in the wings to shut them down the next inning, if necessary. If Ryan is already in the game, the two best options are eliminated.

BaseballNorth - Friday, March 24 2006 @ 02:56 PM EST (#143309) #

Love the new idea for a thread...here's my thoughts

a) Halladay - given his pitch count and Giambi + Matsui splits against lefties (i think i got to this thread too late - no new insight) BJ is the closer but has already established himself as a strong option in the role - give your ace a chance at the complete game

b) Halladay - again Matusui's split against lefties comes into play but I think the biggest point is that you have Giambi on first...unless Torre goes with a pinch runner, there is no way Giambi can score unless Matsui can go yard...it's a great DP opportunity and you are almost through the heart of the lineup...

Let Doc take a crack at Matsui and have BJ waiting in the wings in case Matsui comes through and the Yanks can get 2 men on...then you can confidently pull a tiring Doc and get a true barometer of how your closer handles a true pressure situation early in the season...

c) nothing changes

d) with a 2 run lead I would be even more confident with my decision - but nothing would change

Geoff - Friday, March 24 2006 @ 03:08 PM EST (#143310) #

Can anyone find a case where a guy gets 24 outs, 7 strikeouts, 2 walks and 4 hits and has only made 80 pitches?

Presuming he averaged 4.5 pitches on the Ks, 6 pitches on the walks and 3 pitches on the hits, that's 13 batters with
31.5 + 12 + 12 = 55.5 pitches and only 7 of his 24 outs.

Say he gets 3 double plays on an average of 3 pitches and you have 6 more outs on 9 pitches and a bit of luck.

That leaves 14 more outs in the game and about 16 pitches to do it. Being less conservative, if he averaged 5 pitches on the Ks, he'd have 3.5 more pitches thrown.

I believe Doc is great, but that would be some game. Maybe four pitches hit foul and about 80% of pitches for strikes. (He'd have thrown 8 balls for the 2 BB and at least 7 balls in recording the strikeouts.) Everything else would be one-pitch outs.

That pitch count is near impossible. Give him 95 pitches to be reasonable.

Geoff - Friday, March 24 2006 @ 03:15 PM EST (#143312) #

For a point of reference, see this boxscore of Randy vs. Roy. He had an unbelievable game, and Johnson was terrifically efficient in averaging 12 pitches/inning, but not even he could have had his line with 80 pitches in the 8th.

Ron - Friday, March 24 2006 @ 03:42 PM EST (#143314) #

A. Doc
B. BJ
C. No
D. No

Newton - Friday, March 24 2006 @ 04:56 PM EST (#143322) #

If Doc is cruising and is below 90 pitches leave him in.

To take him out in such a situation is to invite disaster and criticism.

When a dominant pitcher is in a groove with a low pitch count very few closers represent statistical upgrades when it comes to recording the final 3 outs.

Mike Green - Friday, March 24 2006 @ 05:24 PM EST (#143326) #

My answer:

With the current composition of the bullpen, BJ Ryan is by far the best pitcher out there. Using him as a modern closer (save situations in the ninth) is not efficient, as you are not leveraging his talent. He should be used as the ace reliever, coming out in high leverage situations almost exclusively, and often in the eighth inning.

From the start of the season, I would make clear to the staff that Ryan will ordinarily come into the game with a 1 run lead in the ninth because this is a high leverage situation, sometimes with a 2 run lead (usually not with Halladay and more often with others), and not usually with a 3 run lead unless he needs the work or the bullpen has been run through.

That said, the particular issue revolves around likelihood of retiring the side (winning the game), ego and reliever usage. Ryan is more likely to emerge unscathed from the 9th because he's fresher (ace relievers pitch better than starters for this reason) and because he has the platoon advantage against Giambi and Matsui, and the park helps him a little. With the roles set from the beginning of the season, Doc would hopefully accept that with equanimity.

So, Ryan to start the ninth, and it would not matter how the Yankees scored their run, or how in fact Giambi, Matsui and Posada had fared on that day against Doc.

My answer to d. is very different though. I would definitely let Doc stay in with a 3-1 lead. The difference in the chance of winning between him and Ryan would be modest (both very high), at least to start the inning. If Giambi reached base, I'd pull him for Ryan, as it would then be a high leverage situation.

I find the 1-0 situation the hardest of all. There is a significant difference, in likelihood of winning, with pulling Doc the logical choice from this perspective. But, no matter what is said before the season, pulling one's ace in a shutout might be too much. Managers have to know their players, and I don't know enough about Doc to know how he might respond to that.

TangoTiger - Friday, March 24 2006 @ 05:32 PM EST (#143327) #

Geoff: http://www.retrosheet.org/boxesetc/B04180LAN1964.htm
(6 Ks, 3BB, 3 Hits).

My logs here: http://www.tangotiger.net/pitchLogKoufax.html
shows that Koufax threw 83 pitches and faced 29 batters, while throwing 73% strikes.

I also think it would be quite simple to find a Greg Maddux start where he did the same thing. Maddux throws 3.3 pitches per batter I think, so it's kind easy to see how he can do 2.7.

Bob Tewksbury perhaps?

zeppelinkm - Friday, March 24 2006 @ 05:52 PM EST (#143329) #

It's a hypothethical situation.

Baseball is played on the field. It is conceivable that he could have 80 pitches thrown through 8 innings, just not very likely. But stranger things have happened.

It's not that hard to make that leap of faith... especially with Doc being as awesome as he is!

Geoff - Friday, March 24 2006 @ 05:55 PM EST (#143330) #

I knew Maddux would come up. The point is that 80 pitches is very unrealistic, even for Halladay, with the pitching line totals mentioned, and in particular, against this lineup.

Could it ever be done? Sure, once under a very blue moon. It's just not realistic to get Damon, Jeter, Arod, Sheffield, Giambi and Matsui out on so few pitches. Halladay was very effective in that game last April, when the Yanks were scuffling offensively. But he wasn't that good. Give him 95 pitches, and he'd be excellent and the Yankees hitters wouldn't need to be poorer than usual to help him out.

And I give Koufax a huge amount of credit, even if he didn't get a seventh K. Yet Pete Rose wasn't very good that year and nobody on that team outside of Frank Robinson was a big challenge. So I keep my challenge out there.

Geoff - Friday, March 24 2006 @ 06:01 PM EST (#143333) #

I understand expecting awesome with Doc but this is unbelievable. Consider the numbers I put up before, and outside of a K or BB, he'd be getting hitters out at an unreal rate, against one of the toughest lineups to mow down very quickly ever.

And I realize this is only a small point in the whole exercise, and the pitch count won't matter to the decisions of many whether he's at 80 or 95 or 105. But if he did all this in 80, and then he spent at least 6 pitches getting worked over on Giambi, it makes for a real strange situation.

smcs - Friday, March 24 2006 @ 06:02 PM EST (#143334) #

If you go through more of TangoTiger's log, there is an 86-pitch complete game with 33 plate appearences on 1963/09/17. Halladay would have faced 31 batters.

And Also:
a) Halladay
b) Ryan, for the same reasons VBF mentioned.
c) Yes, if Matsui hadn't already doubled, I would leave Halladay in even if Giambi got on
d) Yes, I would give Halladay the biggest opportunity to get the complete game and a shutout.

Cristian - Friday, March 24 2006 @ 06:08 PM EST (#143335) #

That was a fun game. Doc was amazing and Hinske hit a 2 run home run off the toughest lefty in baseball to win the game for Doc. All was right in the world after that game.

Geoff - Friday, March 24 2006 @ 06:28 PM EST (#143337) #

That would be this game and he gave up four hits, no BBs and made only four Ks.

Seven Ks and two BBs requires at least 29 pitches by necessity, and reasonably at least 40. I understand Koufax is a legend for his pitching acumen and ability to get quick outs while logging enormous innings. But we're not talking about facing the '63 Cards. The Yankees, in this day and age, are a completely different beast to pitch through with so much efficiency.

Dave Till - Friday, March 24 2006 @ 06:41 PM EST (#143339) #

(a) I'd start the ninth with Halladay. For one thing, you'd have to drag him out of there with a tractor: no way he'd want to leave this game while he was still sharp. Besides, he's the best pitcher in the known universe. Ryan can relieve one of the other guys - they'll need him then.

(b) I would need to know whether looked like he was starting to tire when he walked Giambi. If he wasn't, keep him in there. See (a)

(c) and (d) - No difference.

Gerry - Friday, March 24 2006 @ 06:44 PM EST (#143340) #

Geoff, Mike posed a great question that most people enjoyed and it has generated a very interesting discussion. It was a hypothetical question. It could happen, it might not be likely, but it could happen. That's the beauty of baseball you can experience something new every time you go to a game.

I think your discussion of how unlikely it is is irrelevant and is taking away from a fine thread.

Geoff - Friday, March 24 2006 @ 06:59 PM EST (#143342) #

I realized after my third post about the pitch count that I was making a mountain of a small detail in the situation, and not many would care about the pitch count anyhow.

I am making more out of the count than was likely intended and calling more attention to it than was designed. But it would be a telling stat as to how awesome Halladay had been that game and should influence a manager's decision to understand how unbelievable he was throwing and dominating the other team for that game. Just putting things in perspective, was my view.

Unless one modified that detail. I'll drop it now. Promise. Maybe Jim can take over the discussion of this if it interests folks.

Magpie - Friday, March 24 2006 @ 07:24 PM EST (#143344) #

Without looking at what anyone else said...

Ryan
Ryan
No
No

The main reason is because that's his job on this team. And if you're not going to let him to do that job against two LH hitters...

Named For Hank - Friday, March 24 2006 @ 07:25 PM EST (#143345) #

Baseball is played on the field. It is conceivable that he could have 80 pitches thrown through 8 innings, just not very likely. But stranger things have happened.

19-year-old Shairon Martis of the Netherlands threw a seven inning mercy rule complete game no hitter without violating the 65 pitch limit at the World Baseball Classic this year. That was a hell of a thing to see.

guerinto - Friday, March 24 2006 @ 07:33 PM EST (#143346) #

a) Definitely Ryan. Eighty pitches in a 1-run game are pressure packed pitches. Against a team like the Yankees, a mistake is in the seats. Ryan is paid to close - let Doc leave with a positive feeling and let Ryan, who historically dominates lefties, blow away Giambi and Matsui . The Yankees would not hit for them.

b) Ryan - see answer a

c) No

d) 3-1 I would give Doc a shot at the CG. A 1-0 nothing score does not change my thinking.

Magpie - Friday, March 24 2006 @ 07:34 PM EST (#143347) #

By the way, Mike - super, super idea. I'm already thinking how I can rip it off and do a historical version!! With the identities of the actual players carefully concealed. (Because it's always easier to take the test after you know the answer.)

Magpie - Friday, March 24 2006 @ 07:43 PM EST (#143348) #

It is conceivable that he could have 80 pitches thrown through 8 innings...

Dave Stieb threw 89 pitches to 29 batters in his imperfect game against the Yankees in August 1989 (the "Roberto Kelly Game.") I have (alas!) lost my scoresheet - but Stieb was at about 73-76 pitches through 8.

What's really remarkable about his pitch count that night is that he struck out 11 guys.

Geoff - Friday, March 24 2006 @ 08:28 PM EST (#143353) #

Interesting note in that game: I forgot that Lee Mazzilli was a DH for the Jays. And now he manages the Orioles.

Jim - Friday, March 24 2006 @ 08:40 PM EST (#143359) #

And now he manages the Orioles.

You might want to check that.

Geoff - Friday, March 24 2006 @ 09:02 PM EST (#143360) #

Ah yes, they canned him after the great start that went awry last year. Now managed by Perlozzo of the '77 Twins led by Rod Carew.

kinguy - Friday, March 24 2006 @ 09:11 PM EST (#143362) #

a) Ryan - you're paying BJ big bucks to save games. If it was any other pitcher on the staff, there would be no question that Ryan would be on the mound in the 9th. Doc may be the 2006 Cy Young Winner-to-be, but there's no reason to stretch him out so early.

b) Halladay

c) No

d) No

Andrew - Friday, March 24 2006 @ 09:37 PM EST (#143364) #

A) Ryan: Halladay may be pitching well, but BJ is still automatic and is facing two lefties in a row with the Yankees nursing a nonexistent bench. Combined with the fact that it's early in the season, I might as well not overwork Halladay. Granted, 90 pitches isn't exactly overworking anyone, but there doesn't seem to be any particular reason to leave Halladay in. Ryan won't be any less effective.

B) I'd leave Halladay in. Matsui is actually a much better hitter versus lefties than righties, for some reason, and walking Giambi on a close full-count pitch isn't quite the same as giving up a first-pitch double. Also, since the decision was made to leave Halladay in at the start of the inning, I'd just stick with that for continuity's sake.

C) No

D) No

Keith Talent - Friday, March 24 2006 @ 11:26 PM EST (#143366) #

but there doesn't seem to be any particular reason to leave Halladay in. Ryan won't be any less effective.

There is a fatal risk factor here that you are overlooking. That you are managing human players, it's not like in the video game where BJ can always strike anyone out. Maybe BJ had some bad guacamole for lunch. Maybe his dog just died. Or is generally distracted on this one particular day.

Any time you bring in a new pitcher, you are bringing in an unknown commodity. You just don't know who he is that day. Whereas if the last pitcher is still rolling and there is no compelling reason to take him out, you should leave him in to protect against this risk. Carlos Tosca never realized this, and I think it was his major failing: managing pitching changes as one would with a video game.

Jim - TBG - Saturday, March 25 2006 @ 01:37 AM EST (#143375) #

That you are managing human players, it's not like in the video game where BJ can always strike anyone out. Maybe BJ had some bad guacamole for lunch. Maybe his dog just died. Or is generally distracted on this one particular day.

This is a good point, but one has to assume that Gibbons didn't just walk into the park at game time and would have some feel for how his closer is feeling that day. Clearly, if BJ is weeping over a picture of the dearly-departed Fluffy at the end of the pen, he's not getting the call.

That said, with two lefties due up, I think Ryan is a no-brainer in this situation.

b) If Giambi walks, I think you definitely get Halladay out of there, despite the ground ball tendencies. This way, the worst Halladay can manage is a no-decision. It may not be the most efficient or stathead friendly strategy, but I like the idea of protecting your starter from getting tagged with a tough loss - it's probably not a bad way to build good will between a manager and pitching staff.

Plus, with a runner on base, Ryan's left-handedness allows him to keep a close eye on whichever pinch runner is in for Giambi, possibly discouraging a steal attempt.

c) No

d) In a 3-1 game, I might leave Halladay until he allows a baserunner, potentially saving Ryan for trickier situations later in the series.

Either way, a sharp Halladay or a fresh Ryan probably results in a Jays win more than 96% of the time in this situation.

Keith Talent - Saturday, March 25 2006 @ 09:02 AM EST (#143381) #

Clearly, if BJ is weeping over a picture of the dearly-departed Fluffy at the end of the pen, he's not getting the call.

Still, human players, with egos. Any personal catastrophe with me and I doubt any of my closest co-workers could spot it, let alone my manager.

Andrew - Saturday, March 25 2006 @ 10:14 AM EST (#143384) #

"There is a fatal risk factor here that you are overlooking. That you are managing human players."

I realize there's a risk of Ryan faltering, but how often do elite closers like Ryan come in completely off their game? I would think the chance of someone who's just worked eight innings faltering in the ninth would be a lot greater than a closer coming in with their head in another country. Part of the makeup of a great closer is their psychological makeup -- every one of the elite closers in baseball is pretty unflappable. Mariano Rivera's mother died last year, or something like that. I don't think that really affected his performance that much.

There's also the factor of bringing in a different arm, too. New York has seen that arm for three-four at-bats that day, and by that point they should start to notice how he's throwing it. By bringing in a fresh pitcher, Toronto can throw that conditioning off and make New York readjust on the fly.

A lot of my opinion on this might have had to do with a Phillies game I saw last summer. Brett Myers was pitching and it was just a gem -- 1 baserunner over the first eight innings. Philly sent him in with a 6-0 lead in the ninth and he gave up three runs. They sent in Wagner and he just shut the Braves down.

I guess my point is that although it's unlikely, the chance of imploding in the ninth is there, and it seems like it's a lot more likely than the closer just not having it at all.

Geoff - Saturday, March 25 2006 @ 11:01 AM EST (#143386) #

Story: Martis didn't strike out a batter, and walked one.

Mike Green - Saturday, March 25 2006 @ 12:17 PM EST (#143392) #

I thought that 80 pitches was a plausible figure after 8 innings of very well pitched ball. Perhaps 85 would have been more reasonable. It doesn't really change the question, does it?

Wildrose - Saturday, March 25 2006 @ 12:23 PM EST (#143393) #

Great question Mike, baseball has so many variables, some of them that can be measured, making it a great game.

I'd probably let Halladay start the ninth, he's only at 80 pitches, going well, has a proven ability to finish games, doesn't really seem to "hit the wall" at this pitch count, so why mess with success.

Bringing in Ryan is also quite defensible ( quite a change from bringing in Batista eh...). He's stone cold against lefties, fresh, can pitch 3 days in a row ( I checked the game logs for 2005 and he appeared 3 days in a row 6 times, with only one negative outcome in game 3 occuring). One factor may be the weather, if its cold you may not want him sitting around and stiffening up waiting to see what happens, on the other hand ,if you do bring him on if Giambi gets on, he certainly can pitch out of the stretch( as expected) opposed to the full windup, with no discernible change in the numbers ( .560/.587 OPS 3 year split runners on/bases empty.)

The Jays should win this game with either Halladay or Ryan finishing the outing.

timpinder - Sunday, March 26 2006 @ 12:58 AM EST (#143414) #

I think I'm going to enjoy this thread.

My answers:

a) Halladay starts the ninth, but Ryan is ready to go

b) If Giambi walks, Ryan comes in for the lefty-lefty match up with Matsui.

c) It wouldn't matter to me who hit the doubles.

d) If the score was 3-1, I'd leave Halladay in there and see how he did against Matsui. I'd try to get him the complete game, but my closer's making $10 million a season to come in and shut the door to if Halladay struggled against Matsui too, Ryan would be coming in.

Jefftown - Sunday, March 26 2006 @ 05:28 PM EST (#143443) #

a. Halladay.
b. Halladay. Matsui is always prone to the GIDP, especially with a groundball pitcher like Doc on the mound.
c. No.
d. No.

You have to give Doc the benefit of the doubt, and only when there is overwhelming reason to bring him out, do you take him out. If the situation were reversed, where Matsui walks and then Giambi comes up, I might have brought in Ryan to face Giambi, but that's just my feeling that Halladay would fare better against Matsui.

Mylegacy - Sunday, March 26 2006 @ 07:14 PM EST (#143449) #

Ryan.

Ryan is not the closer when everyone but Roy pitches, HE'S THE closer.

Roy sits, we thank the gods that he only put 80 pitches on his solid gold arm, Ryan comes in, shortly we all go home with another W in the column that counts.

Michael - Monday, March 27 2006 @ 03:06 AM EST (#143481) #

Two LH and a Switch hitter?

I'd go with Ryan.

The book says as the game goes on the hitter has a progressively greater advantage. And I don't know about strong after 8 IP, but a pitcher with a perfect 3 IP isn't enough to tell if he's on.

laketrout - Monday, March 27 2006 @ 09:07 AM EST (#143491) #

a. Ryan. B.J. dominates lefties and closing games is what you're paying him for. If you're not going to bring him in a 1-run game to start the bottom of the ninth then just when are you going to bring him in. If he's only being paid to protect 3-run leads then Walker could have done that for you. If Halliday had a shutout going then he would have the oportunity to finish the game. Otherwise bring in B.J. and have Halliday ready to start on three days rest if need be.

b. Halliday. If I decided to go with Halliday to start then he would face Matsui too in this situation. If Matsui gets on then Ryan comes in.

c. no

d. 3-1 Ryan. 1-0 Halliday.

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