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The Globe And Mail and TSN are both reporting that Batter's Box favourite Josh Towers has signed a two-year deal with the Jays.

It's reportedly a $5.2 million contract in total, with $2.3M due in 2006 and $2.9M in 2007. Hopefully the groundball-inducing Josh will have the same fine defence behind him over the next two years that he enjoyed in his breakout 2005, in which he earned just $358,000 for posting a 120 ERA+ in nearly 210 innings.

Congratulations, Josh!
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Carson - Tuesday, November 15 2005 @ 03:25 AM EST (#132076) #
I for one am happy the Jays gave him this contract. He definately desereved it. He was fairly consistent last year and the better part of 2004. Now lets see how he pitches with a little bit of job security. I just hope that he can put up numbers as good as last year. Congrats Josh.
Dave Till - Tuesday, November 15 2005 @ 06:46 AM EST (#132077) #
A good move. I'm not convinced he'll stay at this level, but a pitcher with Towers' numbers would command a lot more than this on the open market. And he's definitely earned a little job security.
Jonny German - Tuesday, November 15 2005 @ 08:18 AM EST (#132083) #
Bravo! I can't think of a more well-deserved contract in recent memory.
Christopher - Tuesday, November 15 2005 @ 08:58 AM EST (#132087) #
It's nice to see a deal that works well for both parties. Josh gets a nice raise and the Jays get a solid starter at a reasonable rate.
Flex - Tuesday, November 15 2005 @ 09:24 AM EST (#132089) #
Have to feel that Arnsberg deserves a lot of credit for what happened to Towers last season. Towers was always a fierce competitor, but lacked some raw materials (stuff, speed etc). Arnsberg somehow managed to give that competitor a bit more to work with, and combined with another year of experience and maturity, presto! a 13-win pitcher with an ERA well under 4.

Towers deserves this contract, no doubt. It's nice to see a good guy get his due. But he might want to peel off a few bills for his pitching coach before he pockets the wad.
Mike Green - Tuesday, November 15 2005 @ 09:27 AM EST (#132090) #
Well done.
VBF - Tuesday, November 15 2005 @ 09:33 AM EST (#132093) #
Just more money to spend on Billy Talent CDs...
Craig B - Tuesday, November 15 2005 @ 10:00 AM EST (#132096) #
I am so freakin' happy for Josh Towers this morning I think I might burst. You made it, kid.

The Jays did fairly well to lock Josh in for two arb-eligible seasons where his value will probably rise significantly. I think that if you add 2004 and 2005 together you get the real Towers - an excellent control pitcher who has learned (the hard way) how to pitch to major league hitters to keep the ball in the park. Good in the field, superb confidence, incredibly tenacious, fits perfectly with the team's "dirtbag" self-image. All in all, an average starter (probably a touch better) who is an excellent #4 and very useful #3 guy on a contending team.

I'd agree that Arnie deserves a lot of credit for Towers's superb 2005, because he showed a level of consistency and aggressiveness that he hasn't before, and also Towers discovered another foot or two on his fastball that let him be even more aggressive with hitters on his counts.
smcs - Tuesday, November 15 2005 @ 10:32 AM EST (#132097) #
Wow, that headline scared me. I thought it was Josh Phelps. But then I saw the dollar figures and realized nobody would pay Josh Phelps that much.

Good move by JP. Very well deserved contract for Towers.
Jordan - Tuesday, November 15 2005 @ 10:36 AM EST (#132099) #
As I've mentioned before, the two outstanding elements of Towers' 2005 were his 200 innings pitched (60 more than his previous career high) and his remarkable 17 starts (out of 33) in which he allowed 2 or fewer runs. With better run support, Towers would have won at least 15 games and as many as 17 or 18.

That said, I'd caution against expecting another 3.71 ERA next year. Towers did a great Brad Radke impression last season, but he also carved his HR-allowed rate significantly from past seasons, which is what Radke has done whenever he's successful. Josh's K/IP rate is feeble enough that he needs to be constantly on top of his game in other areas. If he again keeps both his walks and home runs allowed below 30 in 200 IP next year (assuming he can reach that mark again), he'll have another fine season. If either total rises significantly, his ERA will be in the 4.50 range.

This is a good signing, of course. But expectations for Towers should be kept moderate.
Rob - Tuesday, November 15 2005 @ 11:14 AM EST (#132103) #
There's an interesting bit in Blair's story on this signing:

Towers, 28, has won 22 games for the Blue Jays in the past two years after being jettisoned by the Baltimore Orioles and running afoul of former Blue Jays manager Carlos Tosca.

"Running afoul"? Would that be last year when he was sent down and said he was pitching for the other 29 teams? That's not really against Tosca specifically, though...and I can't think of what it could be.

For example, if I read in three years that David Bush ran afoul of John Gibbons, I'd know what happened, even if I don't think the specific event was significant.

What did Towers do?

Anders - Tuesday, November 15 2005 @ 11:30 AM EST (#132104) #
A good signing, as I see we all agree. It seems like Josh is a good guy, and even if he regresses slightly ( or more) he is a a good guy to have around.
CaramonLS - Tuesday, November 15 2005 @ 12:02 PM EST (#132107) #
I was wrong when I went on my DFA Towers rant mid season.

He definately proved himself as an MLB able pitcher. Here is hoping he keeps it going.

*eats crow*

Grasshopper - Tuesday, November 15 2005 @ 12:44 PM EST (#132108) #
Josh is awsome and he is finally getting what he deserves. I went to my first big league games this year, and saw Josh dominate the Royals. It was fantastic. I'm glad that hes going to be around for a while.
Kingsley Zissou - Tuesday, November 15 2005 @ 12:55 PM EST (#132109) #
As a quick aside, I'd like to know where all the yahoos are that vehemently supported signing Josh Phelps last offseason?
Hello?
Guys?
Where are you?
Craig B - Tuesday, November 15 2005 @ 12:58 PM EST (#132110) #
I didn't want Josh Phelps back per se, but I still think he has a lot to offer a team.
Ron - Tuesday, November 15 2005 @ 01:32 PM EST (#132114) #
I'm not sure if Josh will improve his numbers next season but I'm happy he finally has job security. And with this contract, he's set for life.

He never backs down and that's what I like about him.
Kingsley Zissou - Tuesday, November 15 2005 @ 01:42 PM EST (#132118) #
He does have a lot to offer, I agree.
A lot of strikeouts.
A lot of AAAA talent.
Mike D - Tuesday, November 15 2005 @ 02:09 PM EST (#132125) #
Kingsley, I'm inclined to agree with you about Phelps...but let's not go picking fights today.

This is the Good-News-For-The-Pleasantly-Surprising-Josh-Not-The-Utterly-Disappointing-Josh thread. Let's keep it celebratory!
VBF - Tuesday, November 15 2005 @ 02:10 PM EST (#132126) #
For the remaining people who still see Josh Towers as 'fringe player', please come on here and explain why he is. I'm looking forward to it.

Last year's season minus Josh Towers has a significantly worse rotation.

Caramon's got some crow to share :)
R Billie - Tuesday, November 15 2005 @ 02:37 PM EST (#132130) #
I like Towers and he delivered a lot of value to the Jays this past season. The chances of him producing another sub-4.00 era season seem very slim though. I would expect something closer to 4.50 than 3.70.

He does pretty much have to be perfect when he's pitching. He can't walk people and he has to keep the ball in the yard as much as possible. If he took a step forward in the latter regard this year and it's repeatable then this is a great deal for the Jays.

If he falls back and starts allowing a lot of homeruns again then $5 million seems like a lot of money along side Chacin, Bush, and all the young arms coming from AA and AAA by 2007.

This is definately a fair and well deserved deal for Josh. But this is also channeling resources into maintaining what the team already has (decent but not great pitching depth) while not adding any new talent to actually improve the whole. And I certainly recognize you have to do both, but I'll get more excited when we start seeing the latter.
Mike Green - Tuesday, November 15 2005 @ 02:49 PM EST (#132131) #
Well, I started fooling around with Josh Towers' record in Toronto to try to get a handle on reasonable expectations. Using weighted averages of his dERA and ERA (according to IP) for 2003-5, I arrive at a dERA of 4.42 and ERA of 4.22. Now, the Jay defence was significantly above average in 2005 (lopping off .3 of a run off an average pitcher's dERA), and promises to be as good in 2006, and Josh Towers is an above average fielding pitcher. The defence improved between 2003-4 and 2005 primarily as a result of the substitution of Koskie for Hinske at third. So, given Towers' weighted dERA of 4.42 and allowing a reduction of .35 for the above average defence, including Towers', one gets a 2006 ERA of 4.07. You read it here first.
Newton - Tuesday, November 15 2005 @ 03:03 PM EST (#132133) #
Towers is a tremendous bargain.

If he can keep hitting the low 90's on the radar gun he should be able to maintain his ratios of 05 and will never dip below league average even in those seasons where his OBA inexplicably rises (I see his WHIP fluctuating within a range of 1.25-1.40 from season to season as it does with many control/contact inducing pitchers).

He is a right handed version of David Wells in the OO's, without the gout.



Pistol - Tuesday, November 15 2005 @ 03:35 PM EST (#132136) #
This deal is similar to Lilly's deal after the Jays acquired him - 2 years and a shade over $5 million. Given that it's a couple years later and Towers seems to be more durable it seems like a slightly better deal.

And to think that 29 other teams could have had him for just a waiver claim a couple years ago.
Jonny German - Tuesday, November 15 2005 @ 03:40 PM EST (#132139) #
R Billie got me interested in checking out some 2005 splits for Josh:

Towers made 33 starts, averaging 6.3 innings, with 3.4 strikeouts, 1.1walks, and 0.7 homers. His overall ERA was 3.71.

Strikeouts:
2 or less: 13 starts averaging 5.6 innings with a 4.60 ERA
3 or 4: 9 GS, 6.6 IP, 4.25 ERA
5 or more: 11 GS, 7.0 IP, 2.45 ERA

Walks:
0: 12 GS, 6.5 IP, 3.79 ERA
1: 15 GS, 6.5 IP, 3.32 ERA
2 or more: 6 GS, 5.4 IP, 4.68 ERA

Actually he walked more than 2 just once, a 4-1/3-inning 4-walk 5-earned run effort at Oakland in June.

Homers:
0: 16 GS, 6.9 IP, 2.52 ERA
1: 10 GS, 5.9 IP, 4.12 ERA
2: 7 GS, 5.6 IP, 6.46 ERA

Nothing shocking in here... maybe the most interesting conclusion is that for a guy with a reputation of being either ON or OFF on any given day, things only ever got out of hand on him when he was touched for multiple homers. That happened once every 5 starts.
Kingsley Zissou - Tuesday, November 15 2005 @ 03:50 PM EST (#132140) #
This contract was a nothing more than a loyalty reward for what will undoubtably go down in the books as Towers' career year. His numbers were an abberration - every single game he pitched, I had a nervous knot in my stomach. It was just waiting for 'it' to happen...for 'it' to fall apart.
Congrats Josh - you did have a great year. You managed to pull it all together during a season in which our rotation was once again decimated by an errant line drive, a season in which you NOT having pitched your guts out would have been disasterous. However, counting on Josh to keep it together over another season, to count on 'it' not vanishing...well, friends, that's too many what-if's for me.
These deals are the reason the Jays have finished in 3rd place for what seems like an eternity. Another example of being happy with the status quo, and overpaying as such.
Josh will be nothing more than the long righty out of the 'pen come mid-season.
I love his tenacious bulldog attitude, but the bubble will burst.
Lefty - Tuesday, November 15 2005 @ 04:21 PM EST (#132145) #
Personally I'm not so pessimistic. Finesse pitchers take their time to develop. I think Towers has done that and will turn in many more quality starts and quality seasons to come. As well I think he's pretty low risk in sucumbing to injury and that gives the staff an anchor of stability.
King Ryan - Tuesday, November 15 2005 @ 04:35 PM EST (#132147) #
I disagree with you Kingsley. If Towers manages to pitch 180+ innings while just being average, it's still a good signing IMO.

alsiem - Tuesday, November 15 2005 @ 04:45 PM EST (#132149) #
Regardless of how you feel about Towers, this is not a gift contract or loyalty. Average pitchers make 2.5 million see Steve Trachsel as an example.

Great work, to finally break through to being viewed as average
John Northey - Tuesday, November 15 2005 @ 04:57 PM EST (#132151) #
Towers is someone you wonder about, as he doesn't have the 'out' pitch that one hopes for (ie: he isn't dominate).

Checking some numbers to see if he was lucky or good, and will he continue to be...

ERA: 3.71
ERA+: 131 (park adjusted)
FIP: 3.99 (fielding independent ERA)
xFIP: 4.45 (also adjusts for HR based on fly balls given up)
K/9: 4.9
BB/9: 1.3
K/BB: 3.9
HR/9: 1.05

All these are for last year via http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/stats/players/index.php?lastName=Towers&firstName=Josh

For the past 3 years his ERA+ has been 105,95,120 based on http://www.baseball-reference.com/t/towerjo01.shtml (guess different sites use different methods for ERA+) and lifetime he has a 100 ERA+.

To me it looks like Towers is the definition of an average pitcher when it comes to performance. Very solid as your #3/#4 pitcher and fairly consistant too. Probably will never win a Cy Young, or even get a vote, but should make the team happy year in year out. Much like Jim Clancy was imo (lifetime 98 ERA+ with a peak of 131, 3 times cracking 120 over a 15 year career). $2-$3 mil per year sounds good to me as league average with good endurance should be worth about $5-7 million in todays market (if he was a free agent, which he isn't).
Jim - Tuesday, November 15 2005 @ 06:06 PM EST (#132154) #
I've said enough bad things about Towers, I don't need him making me look stupid anymore. :)

Flex - Tuesday, November 15 2005 @ 06:41 PM EST (#132156) #
Who is Kingsley Zissou and why is he crapping all over a good man and a good pitcher?

You wanted to get noticed? Well done.
R Billie - Tuesday, November 15 2005 @ 07:11 PM EST (#132158) #
These deals are the reason the Jays have finished in 3rd place for what seems like an eternity. Another example of being happy with the status quo, and overpaying as such.

I sadly kind of agree with this. And that's not a knock on Josh or the great year he had. It's just we keep finding ourselves eating more and more of the payroll with Shea Hillenbrands and Josh Towers...players everyone seems to like but who cannot lift this team beyond a third place position behind Boston and New York.

Do we know what we'll get out of Josh? I don't think he'll wash out of the rotation but by the same token just because you pay him about $2.5 million a year doesn't mean he'll come close to another 130 ERA+ either. I think you have a solid average 4th or 5th starter who seems durable. And it's very possible he could be surpassed by younger guys when 2007 rolls around.

Flex - Tuesday, November 15 2005 @ 07:30 PM EST (#132160) #
If he's surpassed, we trade him. No harm done. If he's not, good thing we locked him up. And steady 4th or 5th starters who have a way of staying healthy and keeping you in games and don't get rattled on the mound and seem to be learning their craft more and more every year do not grow on trees!

This deal breaks no bank and secures our rotation depth and how anyone can argue that it's an indicator of being happy with the status quo is beyond me.
CeeBee - Tuesday, November 15 2005 @ 07:45 PM EST (#132161) #
"I sadly kind of agree with this. And that's not a knock on Josh or the great year he had. It's just we keep finding ourselves eating more and more of the payroll with Shea Hillenbrands and Josh Towers...players everyone seems to like but who cannot lift this team beyond a third place position behind Boston and New York."

The problem is 20-25 teams in baseball have no choice but to operate this way. Only NY, Boston, LA and maybe a few other can actually even come close to having stars at most every position while the other 20-25 teams are lucky to have a handfull or less of star type players and use average or even below average players at the rest of the positions. This is unfortunately, baseball in the next millenium and unless baseball goes the way of hockey, basketball and football and imposes a reasonable salary cap it won't be changing any time soon.

Named For Hank - Tuesday, November 15 2005 @ 09:21 PM EST (#132163) #
Josh will be nothing more than the long righty out of the 'pen come mid-season.
I love his tenacious bulldog attitude, but the bubble will burst.


I smell an NFH CHALLENGE!

Kingsley:

First off, if you don't know what an NFH challenge is, here is the thread that contains the first one. Short version: Dudek thought Hillenbrand would post a sub .350 OBP at the All-Star break. If he did, I'd buy Dudek some bobbleheads. If he didn't, Dudek would buy a Hillenbrand jersey and wear it to a game, then give it to me.

It's a very nice jersey and I like it a lot, however Robert has not yet worn it. Gotta be next season, I suppose.

So, here's an NFH CHALLENGE for you, Kingsley: if Towers is still in the rotation after the All-Star break, will you purchase and wear a Josh Towers jersey to a game, approach Josh during warm=up and ask for his signature on it, and then hand it off to me?

Your counter-challenge is negotiable, as are the terms of the bet.
Jonny German - Tuesday, November 15 2005 @ 10:58 PM EST (#132168) #
Only NY, Boston, LA and maybe a few other can actually even come close to having stars at most every position while the other 20-25 teams are lucky to have a handfull or less of star type players and use average or even below average players at the rest of the positions.

And yet the Yankees, Red Sox, and Dodgers had only one pitcher amongst them who accumulated a higher VORP than Towers in 2005. All of them would have been much better for having Josh Towers as their #2 starter... enough of this "decent #4" garbage.

Dylan - Wednesday, November 16 2005 @ 04:15 AM EST (#132170) #
It's nice to see a guy like Josh get what he deserves. Especially with the extreme lack of confidence he's been shown the last few years. Players get the job done in different ways. He gets the most out of talent, has been able to stay relativly healthy, consistently throws strikes and takes advantage of an excellant Jays defence. He's a great fit for this team, 200+ innings with an era around 4 next year would be great. I can't think of many teams not wanting a guy like that in their rotation. He'll never light up the radar gun but doesn't mean he cant develop into a solid pitcher.
CeeBee - Wednesday, November 16 2005 @ 07:48 AM EST (#132173) #
"And yet the Yankees, Red Sox, and Dodgers had only one pitcher amongst them who accumulated a higher VORP than Towers in 2005. All of them would have been much better for having Josh Towers as their #2 starter... enough of this "decent #4" garbage."

All the more reason to not only spend wisely but trade smart and look for deals on the scrap heap. Thats why 5 years/55-60m for AJ scares me.

Kingsley Zissou - Wednesday, November 16 2005 @ 09:09 AM EST (#132176) #
Who is Kingsley Zissou and why is he crapping all over a good man and a good pitcher?

Sorry Flex - go back and re-read my comments. I congratulated Josh on getting thhe contract. I stated that I liked his bulldog attitude. I have nothing against Josh Towers, the man. I have a serious problem with the Blue Jays accepting mediocrity, and overpaying through the nose for it. Like I said, this isn't an isolated incident - we've been dealing with mediocre players for years. The fact that most on this board are willing to accept that this is a 'great' signing is just an indication that there's more Kool-Aid drinking going on than I realized. Plain and simple.

So, here's an NFH CHALLENGE for you, Kingsley: if Towers is still in the rotation after the All-Star break, will you purchase and wear a Josh Towers jersey to a game, approach Josh during warm=up and ask for his signature on it, and then hand it off to me?

No, I do not accept the terms of that challenge, however I do accept some sort of challenge. Perhaps I go to the game wearing some sort of 'I Love Josh Towers' T-shirt with accompanying Tiger-Beat'ish homemade sign? I get them both signed: "To Hank, you are one of a kind. Love, Josh Towers" for you?

Mike Green - Wednesday, November 16 2005 @ 09:36 AM EST (#132179) #
So, Mr. Zissou, what would you suggest that the Jays should have done with their starting pitching? Are you suggesting that the Jays should have gone to arbitration with Towers? Offered him a one year deal only? Non-tendered him? And what about Ted Lilly?

If what you mean is that the Jays need more definition in their starting rotation, and that they should trade a starting pitcher, such as Towers, for a bat, that is a perfectly reasonable position. You should know however that average starting pitchers often earn $7 million annually in free agency, so teams generally, and not just the Blue Jays, perceive them as having considerable value.
PeterG - Wednesday, November 16 2005 @ 10:36 AM EST (#132183) #
A FA with the numbers Towers put up last year would go for about 8 mil x 3.

If we sign a FA pitcher, then I would trade someone off the current staff for hitting - 1st choice Chacin, 2nd - Bush
Andrew K - Wednesday, November 16 2005 @ 11:01 AM EST (#132185) #
I like this move because

a) Josh is a great guy who deserves every penny,
b) I think he's good enough to be our 4th starter all year,
c) At that salary in 2007 he's a good trading chip this time next year. And should we get lucky and he improve still further in 2006 then he might be a really seriously amazing trading chip.

For me, c) is the most important. In some ways it is JP taking a gamble without taking a gamble -- it doesn't actually hurt the team at all to have Josh at that price, and if he improves still further we could flip him, plus a few throw-ins, for someone closer to being an elite hitter, in a year's time.
Kingsley Zissou - Wednesday, November 16 2005 @ 11:30 AM EST (#132190) #
See, "I think Josh is a great guy and deserves every penny" is NOT the way to operate a major league baseball franchise as a general manager. That's my problem. Everyone is so excited because Josh is such a nice, sweet, caring, loving guy. He's so warm and cuddly and charming. It has NO bearing on whether he deserves that contract, so let's ALL stop bringing up what a nice fella he is, ok? Moratorium on the niceness? Agreed everyone?

Now, as for the business at hand, I definitely think non-tendering him would have been the responsible way to go. If someone else was actually was stupid enough to pay him $8 mil x 3, let him walk and have a laugh about it. If nobody was interested (more than likely, because it's a proven fact that other teams have had no interest in him), then we sign him for something more reasonable, say a base of $1.0 mil for 1 year plus attainable PERFORMANCE bonuses.

My problem is they awarded a career year with an exorbinant contract that is easily above market value for a glorified journeyman. Give him a comfortable base with performance bonuses, and see whether 2005 was an abberation, or whether it was a benchmark. If it turns out to be a benchmark, and he matches 2005, he gets paid handsomely with bonuses up to the level of the deal the just signed, and we have the option to re-up. If he turns out to be the mediocre #5-at-best starter of 2004 and previous, we're protected by a minimal outlay of dollars and a one-year term.

JP simply went overboard here. Sorry, I know you're all JP lovers, but this was just a bad bad bad fiscal decision.
VBF - Wednesday, November 16 2005 @ 11:37 AM EST (#132192) #
I'm not a JP lover.
BCMike - Wednesday, November 16 2005 @ 11:46 AM EST (#132195) #

JP simply went overboard here. Sorry, I know you're all JP lovers, but this was just a bad bad bad fiscal decision.

It's 2.5 million dollars a year for two years. Even in the worst case scenario (Josh Towers doesn't pitch a game in the majors) it's hardly anything to worry about.

This contract is in no way "exorbinant."

And you don't run a successful baseball franchise by non-tendering players who pitch as well as Josh Towers did, and certainly not over 3% of your payroll.

Grasshopper - Wednesday, November 16 2005 @ 11:51 AM EST (#132196) #
yah baseball is a buisness, but it is also a game. A fun game and fans want to watch players they like as well as players who are the best. Josh is not the best in the league but he is a person that Blue jays fans want to see. I know I do. I am as happy as anybody that Towers got this contract. I love watching him fire, and if i had a choice to watch Towers or Burnett Pitch I would go to the Towers game. If any Jays fans think that way then I think towers is worth every penny.
Brent S - Wednesday, November 16 2005 @ 11:52 AM EST (#132197) #
If nobody was interested (more than likely, because it's a proven fact that other teams have had no interest in him), then we sign him for something more reasonable, say a base of $1.0 mil for 1 year plus attainable PERFORMANCE bonuses.

That's all fine and dandy, but it's easy to forget that in the process of salary arbitration, Towers probably would have rejected an offer such as that. I can't think of any players comparable to Towers at this moment, but I would imagine that he would have been awarded a much higher guaranteed salary than the one you suggested.

sweat - Wednesday, November 16 2005 @ 12:04 PM EST (#132198) #
Non-tender Towers? Wow. I'm speechless. The guy was our best pitcher once Roy went down.
SK in NJ - Wednesday, November 16 2005 @ 12:14 PM EST (#132199) #
"Now, as for the business at hand, I definitely think non-tendering him would have been the responsible way to go".

===============================

Yikes. I'm not a fan of the Towers extension, mainly because he was going to be Jays property for the next three years anyway, so the team could have just gone through arbitration year by year with caution (assuming Towers goes back to his pre-2005 ways), but I can't help but roll my eyes at the above statement. "Non-tendering him would have been the responsible way to go"? So trading him while his value was high or offering arbitration for one year would have been irresponsible?

Towers, more or less, is a league average starter. You don't give that away for nothing. Plain and simple.
Skills - Wednesday, November 16 2005 @ 12:27 PM EST (#132200) #
Not sure if this is true or not, but I just heard a rumor that Mike Cameron has been traded to San Diego.

www.minorleagueball.com

check out the mike cameron link on the right hand side of the page
Jacko - Wednesday, November 16 2005 @ 12:39 PM EST (#132201) #
Some interesting numbers to peruse:

ERA Rank: 12th (out of 44 qualifiers)
IP: 15th
Quality Starts: 9th (3-way tie with Chen and Zito)
WHIP: 20th

Salaries of other AL "finesse" pitchers:

Carlos Silva: 1.75 MM
Kenny Rogers: 3.33 MM
Paul Byrd: 5.00 MM
Gustavo Chacin: .30 MM
Brad Radke: 9.00 MM
Jake Westbrook: 2.90 MM

I think it's a good deal for both sides. Towers gets some security, while the Jays get some protection from a killer arbitration award in 2007 if Towers goes out and wins 20 games in 06.





actionjackson - Wednesday, November 16 2005 @ 01:05 PM EST (#132203) #
Mr. Zissou. Kindly refer to the link www.baseball-reference.com/t/towerjo01.shtml
On this page it lists 3 of Josh Towers' contemporaries that he is closest to in terms of performance at the age of 28. They are (in order of statistical similarity) Rodrigo Lopez, Brett Tomko, and Bronson Arroyo. Before you go leaping down my throat about the mediocrity of these players, and how we should never accept it, understand that all of these guys were paid far more than Towers (who earned $0.358m) in 2005. Lopez earned $2.375m, Tomko earned $2.65m, Arroyo earned $1.85m. All will probably earn raises next year. Two of them were signed by 'well respected' GMs (Sabean and Epstein). It appears to me that Towers current contract is equal to or less than the going rate for 'mediocrity'. If one of the 'statheads' could jump in and help me with the VORP for these 4 pitchers, it would help.

I would rather pay this much for mediocrity, than what the Yankees paid for less than mediocrity (Wright, Pavano, Brown). It sounds like you think we have all the money in the world and should only target superstars, while non-tendering our own 'less than' superstars. I for one would like to build a team here, not a collection of individuals (see the Bronx). I cannot think of a more ultimate team player than Josh Towers and since he is evidently not being overpaid with this contract, I am very pleased with it. No, I don't drink the Kool-Aid, but I'm not sure what you've been drinking...
Andrew K - Wednesday, November 16 2005 @ 01:08 PM EST (#132205) #
See, "I think Josh is a great guy and deserves every penny" is NOT the way to operate a major league baseball franchise as a general manager

When I'm a general manager you can bet that I won't run my team that way. But until I get hired I am only a fan and therefore express my happiness that something good has happened to someone deserving.

The idea of non-tendering a pitcher who had an ERA around 4 is, frankly, silly. At the very least you sign him and try to trade him.

Jobu - Wednesday, November 16 2005 @ 01:22 PM EST (#132206) #
You asked for a stathead but all you got was me. I'm sorry.


Name / Rank / VORP

Rodrigo Lopez/ 218/ 9.5
Bronson Arroyo/ 135 /16.9
Brett Tomko/ 115/ 19.6
Josh Towers/ 44/ 34.1
Kingsley Zissou - Wednesday, November 16 2005 @ 01:55 PM EST (#132208) #
Yikes. I'm not a fan of the Towers extension, mainly because he was going to be Jays property for the next three years anyway, so the team could have just gone through arbitration year by year with caution (assuming Towers goes back to his pre-2005 ways), but I can't help but roll my eyes at the above statement. "Non-tendering him would have been the responsible way to go"? So trading him while his value was high or offering arbitration for one year would have been irresponsible?

Arbitration would have likely resulted in a higher salary than the contract he was awarded. By non-tendering, and resigning to a lower base with incentives, you avoid the high guaranteed cash outlay.

Pistol - Wednesday, November 16 2005 @ 02:01 PM EST (#132209) #
"Arbitration would have likely resulted in a higher salary than the contract he was awarded"

What comparible pitchers, in their first year of arbitration (like Towers was prior to signing), did you use to come up with this conclusion?
Kingsley Zissou - Wednesday, November 16 2005 @ 02:03 PM EST (#132211) #
Oh, and for the record, I have no problem whatsoever with Josh being the #4 starter this year. As stated earlier, I quite like his attitude on the mound. So, please, for those of you trying to twist this into the 'Zissou hates Towers' angle, you're wrong. I like him. I just DESPISE the contract, and think it was a dreadful mistake. I don't think he'll last in the rotation because of the glut of promising arms we have coming up, and (hopefully) some sort of free agent additions.
Do I want him on the team? Yes.
Do I have to love the contract they gave to a guy who *I think* will end up in the bullpen my mid-year? No.
Chuck - Wednesday, November 16 2005 @ 02:05 PM EST (#132212) #
then we sign him for something more reasonable, say a base of $1.0 mil for 1 year plus attainable PERFORMANCE bonuses.

Bonuses in MLB are only permissable based on playing time, not on performance metrics (homeruns, saves, wins, etc.).

Kingsley Zissou - Wednesday, November 16 2005 @ 02:05 PM EST (#132213) #
<i>What comparible pitchers, in their first year of arbitration (like Towers was prior to signing), did you use to come up with this conclusion?</i>

Pistol, I have a job. I don't have all day to research arbitration results. It was simply an anecdotal guess based on Towers' numbers compared to other pitchers, and their corresponding salaries.
CaramonLS - Wednesday, November 16 2005 @ 02:06 PM EST (#132214) #
I disagree with you Kingsley. Take Josh Towers numbers since the All-Star break:

105.0 IP
2.91 ERA
1.15 WHIP
10 BB

You'd be crazy not to resign a guy with a 2nd half like that. Not to mention, if you non-tendered him, there is a very good chance someone looking at that would pick him up.

This is a safe deal. Not too much cash, and not too much to worry about if he completely breaks down.

Will he put up numbers like that again? I'm not sure.

But he did something he hadn't done through his whole career, be very consistant through the second half of the season.
Named For Hank - Wednesday, November 16 2005 @ 02:06 PM EST (#132215) #
No, I do not accept the terms of that challenge, however I do accept some sort of challenge. Perhaps I go to the game wearing some sort of 'I Love Josh Towers' T-shirt with accompanying Tiger-Beat'ish homemade sign? I get them both signed: "To Hank, you are one of a kind. Love, Josh Towers" for you?

I think we can meet somewhere in the middle. I'll start a thread for hashing out the details of the challenge.

I'm too tired and lazy to search for it now, but go look for the interview with J.P. where he takes a strip off of us for devolving into a radio call-in show or something like that. He doesn't think we're "J.P. lovers".

I don't have any problem with this signing for a number of reasons -- first, he kicked ass last year, and regardless of what he does this year it sends the signal to potential Jays that the team does not hesitate to reward performance. Same thing happened with Greg Myers. Second, I like to believe that working with Arnsberg has improved Josh as a pitcher. I have no data to support this other than Towers' '05 performance. Third, as others have pointed out, similar pitchers cost similar money. Fourth, it's a small amount of money. Fifth, it's a terrific investment if he repeats, and we've all been asking for some dice-rolling rather than taking the safe path.
HippyGilmore - Wednesday, November 16 2005 @ 02:08 PM EST (#132216) #
No matter how bad Towers is, this contract will never be considered a "dreadful" mistake. Any team with an 80 million dollar payroll can easily eat 2.5 million a year in salary. Even if Towers is out of baseball by June, this wouldn't hurt the team all that badly. It's a very small risk.
actionjackson - Wednesday, November 16 2005 @ 02:09 PM EST (#132217) #
Thankyou Jobu. Those numbers show 2005 might have been a (so far) career year for Towers. These suggest he is definitely in there for his career with this group of 4 pitchers. Career ERA+:
Towers 100
Arroyo 100
Lopez 96
Tomko 94

Yes, it was a career year for Towers, but he is a league average pitcher. Also, the average 2005 salary for the other 3 was $2.29m. Josh will get $2.3m in 2006. He deserves it, end of story.
CaramonLS - Wednesday, November 16 2005 @ 02:20 PM EST (#132219) #
I'm too tired and lazy to search for it now, but go look for the interview with J.P. where he takes a strip off of us for devolving into a radio call-in show or something like that. He doesn't think we're "J.P. lovers".

I beleive JP said the members of the box had lost perspective, and that he reduced his visits to the site from weekly to ~ bi-monthly.

Myself, I've slagged JP a great deal, but I do like this move.
Pistol - Wednesday, November 16 2005 @ 02:37 PM EST (#132220) #
Pistol, I have a job. I don't have all day to research arbitration results. It was simply an anecdotal guess based on Towers' numbers compared to other pitchers, and their corresponding salaries.

I know you're new around here, but generally we find that specifics are much more convincing than throwing around 'anecdotal guesses'.

Here's what I found searching BBRef just now. Note, AERA+ is the average ERA+ the past two years prior to the year 4 season (with the breakout of the two years to the right, which would be year 3 and year 2 of service time). Players chosen were comparable players based on the BBRef comps, and comps of the comps. I came up with 10 similar players since 2003:

Year	Player	         Team 	Salary	AERA+	Yr3     Yr2
2003	O Perez	         LA	 $3.40 	108	126	90
2005	J Marquis	 StL	 $3.00 	94	113	75
2004	J Pineiro	 Sea	 $3.00 	124	117	130
2004	V Padilla	 Phi	 $2.60 	115	114	116
2004	K Wells	         Pit	 $2.58 	125	129	121
2005	B Lawrence	 SD	 $2.38 	96	97	94
2005	R Lopez	         Bal	 $2.38 	104	133	75
2004	T Ohka	         Mtl	 $2.34 	125	119	131
2006	J Towers	 Tor	 $2.30 	108	120	95
2003	M Redman	 Fla	 $2.15 	100	100	100
2004	A Eaton	         SD	 $1.93 	84	97	71

After looking this up at that I have a hard time seeing how Towers' salary is out of line based on his numbers compared to other pitchers and their corresponding salaries.

binnister - Wednesday, November 16 2005 @ 03:00 PM EST (#132223) #
I think the essense of Kingsley's comments is this: He can't understand why so many of us are so happy that we have to 'settle for' Josh Towers.

The teams that win don't need to 'settle for' a given player...they simply go out and get the best (see: Boston/NY).

Personally, it's all well and good to say that they should cut Towers and used the money toward's signing a star/near-star player.....except that those type of player's don't usually choose to sign with Toronto.

My inital reaction to news of this signing was: That seems to be a bit too much money for a player that has only had 1 'good' year. However, I can just see the 'wildcard' in this being a conversation behind the scene's:

J.P. - Hey Arny, has Josh turned the corner?

Arnsberg - Yup

J.P Dials Towers agent

Ryan Day - Wednesday, November 16 2005 @ 03:16 PM EST (#132227) #
Who's settling? Towers had an excellent year. Even if he regresses, he's still not being paid an unreasonable amount of money for an average pitcher with little-or-no health concerns. And 2005 really was the New Josh Towers, it's an outstanding deal.
Mike Forbes - Wednesday, November 16 2005 @ 04:28 PM EST (#132238) #
Most of you who know me from our usual chats know I'm not a big Josh Towers fan, but I must give him his due, he earned this contract and my trust. Of all the Blue Jays current starters not named Halladay, I think I'd trust Towers most in a critical playoff game. He has that big game mentality to him. Now we just gotta help him get a chance to pitch in an actual big game...
binnister - Wednesday, November 16 2005 @ 04:35 PM EST (#132239) #
Notice the quotation marks around "settle for"

As I mentioned, I feel the thinking is that we "settled for" Josh Towers because he's not a 'name' player.

I don't necessarily agree with that. I think they may have paid Towers a bit too much money (for a 1 year proformance), but if he repeats (or even comes close) its money well spent.

Anders - Wednesday, November 16 2005 @ 06:28 PM EST (#132257) #
i dont understand how anyone could consider 5 million dollars for 2 years an excessive amount of money. Generally in baseball, contracts are based on performance. It's hard to beleive Josh would have gotten less in arbitration. As for non-tendering, well, of course no one would sign him.

Who would want to sign a pitcher that was (all stats AL):

20th in pitching win shares.
12th in ERA
15th in IP
T-8th in QS
6th in K/BB
14th in DIPS
15th in FIP

I dont think it's unfair to say he was a top 20 pitcher in the AL last year. And as far as I know, you have to pay people based on what they do, not on what you think they can do.

Still, non tendering him could have been a good idea. I mean, its not like there's a shortage of pitching of anything. I mean, its not like Odalis Perez got 3/24, or Kris Benson got 3/22.5, or Russ Ortiz got 4/33 after having worse seasons than Josh just had...
R Billie - Wednesday, November 16 2005 @ 06:51 PM EST (#132261) #
Non-tendering Towers is a definate non-starter. He'd easily get similar deals offered from all over the league and would likely have his pick of destinations. He would never settle for an incentive based deal with the Jays.

I might have prefered to either trade him at the height of his value or sign him to a one year deal. But either way he's still quite tradeable unless he performs poorly this year. That's the real risk in this equation.
Skills - Wednesday, November 16 2005 @ 07:00 PM EST (#132263) #
I think it's is a great deal. Not only (as supported by the stats and rankings everyone is putting up) was Towers in the upper echelon of AL starters last year, but the contract is not at all exorbitant. I don't remember what the terms were, but Schoenweis last year was around the same amount, 2 years 5+. I was somewhat wary of that deal at the time, especially for a guy who was going to come out of the 'pen and appeared to struggle the year before, but to sign Towers to a similar deal after this year is completely reasonable. The contract is only two years so even if Towers falls flat on his face, this is going to take us at least a quarter way through the contract. I mean, consider the 900,000 thrown away at Billy Koch. Moreover, if Towers does well and his value goes up, the second year of the contract allows you to trade him when his value is high and perhaps out of the Jays' price range. In all respects, a prudent move by JP.
Mike Forbes - Wednesday, November 16 2005 @ 07:44 PM EST (#132264) #
Abit off subject here but Mike Cameron was just traded to San Diego for Xavier Nady... About time something happened.

http://www.tsn.ca/mlb/news_story.asp?id=143301
R Billie - Wednesday, November 16 2005 @ 08:21 PM EST (#132267) #
The Mets are making salary room to go after someone. But who? But WHO? Whom?
CaramonLS - Wednesday, November 16 2005 @ 10:06 PM EST (#132271) #
Probably Ryan or some help in the Bullpen. You would have to think.



GeoffAtMac - Wednesday, November 16 2005 @ 10:15 PM EST (#132272) #

MLB's main page has a link to a story that claims the Mets are after Delgado.

Stay tuned.

Cristian - Thursday, November 17 2005 @ 02:22 AM EST (#132278) #
I thought Dave Roberts was the Padres' answer at CF. Does this mean that Roberts is back in the role of pinch hitter? If so, look for the Red Sox to make a play for Roberts if Damon leaves. It would be great PR for Boston to bring Roberts back. Bill Simmons would start doing backflips.
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