After having read this, I don't see how Clement signs anywhere but Anaheim.

Then again, Bob Elliott has not exactly been the paragon for accuracy lately, has he?

But then again, he probably digs a little harder for dirt when it concerns a potential failure of the current administration.

We'll see.

Morning all. The winter meetings sure have lived up to the hype so far! With regards to Koskie/Hill, I think with Koskie you know what your going to get at the hot corner. Remember, Aaron Hill has only played 3rd in the AFL and when he reaches the majors he might not be ready to play 3rd.

I'm much more in favor of keeping Koskie, keeping Hill at shortstop, and then flipping either Adams or Hudson (preferably Adams) for pitching depth.

What I really like about the Koskie deal is that it FORCES JP to do something with Hinske. Once Koskie signs on the dotted line that means something will be done with Hinske, whether it's changing positions to first base or better yet and hopefully so... being traded.

The rumors of trading Batista are music to my ears. The problem with prior threads where people compare Clement/Batista's stats and salary is that they TOTALLY neglect strikeouts as if they don't matter much. Matt Clement is NOTHING LIKE Miguel Batista. Batista isn't a power pitcher like Clement is. Over the past 3 years, judging by OBA, Matt Clement has been one of the hardest pitchers to hit in the game. Trading Batista would allow the Jays to up their offer to Clement and hopefully reel him in.

On the surface, none of this seems to make sense at all.

Once Cat was signed, it looked like the Jays were pretty much set at every position except C, 1B, DH, and possibly SS if you wanted to give Adams more time in AAA. For a last place team the starting pitching was quite good last year. There were worse bullpens, but it wasn't exactly a source of strength for the Jays last year.

The Jays have $14 million dollars, and all reports (which admittedly might be false), have the Jays focusing on two positions: Starting pitching (Clement) and 3rd base (Koskie). The former was a source of strength last year, and while the latter was a source of weakness, there is an established player there who could bounce back, and there are other holes.

Maybe JP has some trades in mind that haven't finalized, but on the surface, this seems insane. Why not spend the money on the positions where you have no one in the minors or the majors? The Jays aren't hurting for either pitching prospects or 3B prospects, but other than Vito, the system is devoid of 1B types.

I'm not going to pass judgement until how I see how this all shakes out. I'm hoping they have a bunch of trades already made, but not announced. Right now, though, this plan seems absolutely insane.

Weird, I was just about to write nearly exactly what Moffatt just wrote.

So instead I'll just say I agree with Moffatt, which is a little scary, but I think I can handle it.

Warning: Agreeing with me can be very addictive. Unless you're my girlfriend. She seems immune. :)

I wouldn't be surprised at all if the Jays move Hinske as soon as the Koskie deal is finalized.

Also, I still not convinced that we're out of the Matt Clement hunt. Apparently, reports of the Angels offering 10 million over three years are false.

I wouldn't be surprised at all if the Jays move Hinske as soon as the Koskie deal is finalized.

You'd pretty much have to. But what could you get for him? My guess would be not much. Which is another point: Can Hinske's value get any lower? Why sell that low?

Quit being a JP apologist Moffatt.

The rumors of a Lee/Konerko trade with Hinkse involved, and a potential Koskie signing seem to fit together. That'd fill 1B or DH and give you an upgrade at 3B. That would likely be the '2 bats' and then the Jays could look to the bargain bin for a good lefty bat at DH/OF.

That'd leave a few million left for some pitching help.

The other thing I'd add is that if the Jays didn't resign Cat, they could have made a run at big-time outfield bat (say JD Drew). I know people will say Drew is injury prone, but that's probably the only reason why he could be had at a $ value below his offensive potential.

But anyways that's a moot point, cause they did resign Cat, which means they have a huge offensive hole in the line-up as well as no first baseman.

Has Hiske sucked the last couple years? Yes. But as someone pointed out on yesterdays thread Koskie's real cost will be his contract PLUS whatever prospect and/or cash is used to jettison Hinske. This is just to much to pay for someone with marginal upside. I'd rather have Hinske or some audition of Hill or Hattig plus the money than Koskie.

I'm guessing the Angels have offered Clement a 3/24 deal, maybe even 3/27: Would anyone here go 4/28, oe even 4/32 to pry him away from the Angels. I'm really thinking that it is coming down to us and them.

That White Sox rumour makes zero sense from the Chicago end. Hence I can't give more than a fifty-fifty shot of going through ;)

Quit being a JP apologist Moffatt.

I can't help it. It's in my blood. :)

The rumors of a Lee/Konerko trade with Hinkse involved, and a potential Koskie signing seem to fit together.

What were the various trade rumors again? Didn't most of them involve the Jays eating a lot of salary, or giving away a bunch of prospects to have people take Hinske and/or Batista off of our hands.

I particularly don't understand the latter. I'm not at all a Batista fan, but there are equivalent pitchers who are signing for more in this off-season. He seems like an asset, not a liability. Doesn't mean I wouldn't trade him, but I wouldn't give him away for free either.

The White Sox rumour seems to make a lot of sense to me. They get a left handed bat, an upgrade over Crede at third base, a bargain starter in Miguel Batista, and that's without even mentioning any prospects that good go either way in the deal.

A few quick hits:

- Assuming (and this is a big assumption) that the talks with the White Sox concern a Hinske-Lee swap (perhaps with minor leaguers also going to Chicago), then I can see point of signing Koskie: put him at third, flip Hinske for a 1B, and your infield is set. But that's a lot of speculation right now, and everything has to break right.

- I'm also a little mystified by what this would all mean for Aaron Hill. I think he's still a reasonable option at SS going forward, and certainly at 3B. And as much as I like Russ Adams, I do think Hill has the better overall upside and has leadership qualities to boot. Hill is not far away from the majors, so a decision will have to be made soon. Nice problem to have, though.

- I'm not in a big hurry to dump Batista. As I've said before, he was having a pretty decent season up till August 1, when the wheels completely came off. And as someone else has said here, the crazy contracts being thrown around this winter mean that Batista is now a relative bargain. He still has value; if he cottons on to what Brad Arnsberg's selling and makes some adjustments, he could shock a lot of people.

- If the Jays sign Clement -- and that one is completely up in the air right now -- then I do like Batista as a spot starter/middle reliever/supersub kind of pitcher. Whether Batista himself likes that idea is another story, but in a Halladay-Clement-Lilly-Bush rotation -- which would compare very nicely to what New York and Boston will send out there -- then you can get creative with Batista.

A lot of dominoes have yet to fall, but today could be the day something happens and they all start to topple. The Jays could come away from these meetings with a powerful rotation and a restocked lineup, or they could swing and miss on everything and come away empty-handed. Cross your fingers.

What do people think about Doug Mientkiewicz? I checked at DugoutDollars and it says that whoever has him will be on the hook for $3.75 MIL next year. Perhaps a little pricey, but he is quite good defensively, and has a high on-base percentage (lifetime .363(, which is what JP typically likes. He doesn't have nearly enough pop as we need (and it seems like there is a shortage of Jay-affordable "pop" available), but he has had played well in the past despite last year's performance.

As for the Koskie issue, I am still mulling over the possibility. It appears we might get into a bidding war for his services between Detroit and LA -- in his case, I don't think it would be worth throwing 'unlimited' (read: much of what we have available) money at him trying to pry him away from those teams.

It looks to me like we might have to just make trades this year, and use the extra money to eat up money from teams' players. There are still lots of guys out there, so hopefully JP will get creative. Please keep in mind I am an eternal Blue Jays optimist. :)

Took too long to post, as usual.

I think if the Jays sign Clement, then they have to move Batista. That's too much money to pay for someone not in starting rotation.

Also, re: Clement, his agent has said that he doesn't expect him to sign anywhere until later this week.

The White Sox rumour seems to make a lot of sense to me. They get a left handed bat, an upgrade over Crede at third base, a bargain starter in Miguel Batista, and that's without even mentioning any prospects that good go either way in the deal.

Funny, very few here seem to think Hinske's an upgrade over anything, while Batista is an albatross to the Jays, but a bargain to the Sox?

Yes prospects can swing the deal. Prospects can swing any deal. My point is those prospects will be significant in nature. KW likes the oohs and ahhhs of 100mph fastballs, so I say Perkins is one guy, and either Hill or Adams also goes to complete this deal (if no cash).

It appears we might get into a bidding war for his services between Detroit and LA.

I really don't think that will happen, Koskie seems like a done deal to me. I think he'll be a Bluejay by the end of today.

'and either Hill or Adams also goes to complete this deal (if no cash).'

If JP trades Hill or Adams to the White Sox you'll start to see some folks around here turn on him.

Lots of crazy rumors out there today. One has the Sox trading Mientkiewicz for Kaz Matsui if they can't sign Renteria. I'd love to see that one. :) Looks like the Angels are the front-runners for Clement. And rumor has it that Delgado wanted a 4 year $64 million deal. Could be a fun day.

while Batista is an albatross to the Jays, but a bargain to the Sox?.

Batista is an albatros to the Jays because they believe they can upgrade with a better pitcher for the rotation.

As someone already pointed out, Batista had a great year until August. Remember the interest in him at the deadline? With the contracts being handed out this year, I would definitely consider him a bargain.

http://www.rotoworld.com/content/home_MLB.asp?sport=MLB
According to Rotoworld the White Sox are using Lee/ Konerko to try to land Randy Johnson COMN

This is what could be holding up a Jays/ Whitesox swap. I think the deals mentioned make sense. You deal Hinske and Batista and their approx. $7 million worth of salaries for Lee and his $8 million. If you can get Clement and Koskie for $13 million combined (maybe 5 and 8 this year) you would have filled most of your holes except the bullpen. Given the large number of guys they have fighting for those jobs - you might just see how things shake out in the first month or wait for the bargain shopping in Feb to fill that out.

If this is the deal, then JP must be sweating trying to keep Koskie/ Clement from signing elsewhere while he waits for Kenny Williams to find out RJ won't play there.

when was it that everybody here turned on Batista anyway?

I'd be quite surprised -- but not shocked -- if the Unit accepted a trade to the ChiSox; he's been quite clear and quite picky about wanting to get to a World Series, and Chicago will be fortunate to win their mediocre division.

Interesting stuff. The Yankees now appear to have now overhauled their rotation with Pavano and Wright, so they may have decided to drop out for the moment from the Johnson sweepstakes. With the Dodgers apparently on the verge of picking up Tim Hudson, that leaves the Angels as pretty much the only remaining contender to which Johnson has been linked. That narrows Arizona's options considerably, and they may have to back down on their trade demands from Anaheim.

And of course, if the Angels did pick up Johnson, that would presumably -- but not definitely -- end their interest in Clement. So a whole lot of options for the Jays may be riding on what the Diamondbacks and the voices in their head tell them to do in the next couple of days.

Best case scenario for the Jays would be the Angels somehow aquiring RJ.

when was it that everybody here turned on Batista anyway?

August: 1-4, 6.49
September: 0-3, 7.65

At the tail end of a horrible season, no less. Also, the word began circulating that Batista wouldn't cut back his repertoire of pitches and focus on his strengths. I'm not even sure of the accuracy of that, but it may have given him the reputation of being difficult. Which is ironic, because he arrived in Toronto advertised as something not far short of a folk hero and renaissance man. The truth, as always, is probably somewhere in between. And I do think a new season -- and no "#2 man in the rotation" pressure -- will do him good.

I think if the Jays sign Clement, then they have to move Batista. That's too much money to pay for someone not in starting rotation.

Not really. If he goes out and saves 30 games next season, is he overpaid?

As has been noted, in the context of the current marketplace and given his ability, I have no issue with Batista's price tag. It's not ideal but it's not outrageous.

If it were an albatross, there wouldn't be a market for his services (as there seems to be). To me, that's an asset.

The other point worth making is: if the Snakes are trying so hard to rebuild in a hurry -- signing Glaus and Ortiz to huge deals (and picking up Royce Clayton, of all people, today) -- why would they turn around and get rid of their best pitcher?

I suspect that unless the offer is mind-blowing, the Unit will stay in the desert. The Angels, who have a lot of good young talent, might yet make such an offer.

I turned on Batista when he transformed into "BBatista", the Human Walking Machine (TM), with no command, and no ability to strike anybody out. His August/September wall could have been fatigue/injury related, but it also could have been his ratios catching up to his performance. You generally don't walk 4.36 batters per 9, while only striking oout 4.71 per 9 and expect to be top notch for too long.

With that, I agree Batista is an asset, not someone to trade lightly. His price tag is better than most of the similar pitchers getting 7 or 8 or 9 million a year this off-season. I'd only make the deal with the White Sox if they take Hinske too. I'd be willing to throw in a prospect if need be (with Kenny Williams in charge, god knows who he'd be interested in...Chacin? Negron?). I'd rather have Carlos Lee than Konerko, though.

And I've heard Steve Kline's name more than once, on this forum and another, but I've yet to read it anywhere else. Is this just some guy's fabrication or an actual rumor? Excuse me for being vunerable, I WANT THE JAYS TO MAKE A FREAKIN' MOVE!!!!!

There seem to be so many deals lined up. I hope that first domino falls today.

Hill is not far away from the majors, so a decision will have to be made soon. Nice problem to have, though.

At the risk of upsetting those who think Orlando Hudson is the Jays' best player, my crystal ball says he'll be involved in a big deal about this time next year. I'm hoping he wins a Gold Glove and has his best season yet with the stick, so his value is even higher than it is today. Trading O-Dog to a richer club just before he becomes prohibitively expensive will allow the Jays to acquire more power. That's why the 1B "solution" for 2005 will almost certainly be a stopgap.

While I'm not a professional scout and don't even play one on TV, I've seen Hill and Adams enough to form an opinion. Russ, with a full season of Butterfield tutelage, will be a fine SS, and Aaron has a legitimate chance to become Jeff Kent (with a better glove) at 2B. That's where I expect to see him on Opening Day 2006.

when was it that everybody here turned on Batista anyway?

First of all, it isn't "everybody." The most impatient and emotional reactions to the team and individual players tend to come in game threads, so you might want to re-read some of those to pinpoint when the angry mob singled him out. Miguel was in pain through the second half, but he's too much of a gamer to complain or make excuses. I believe he moved to the bullpen because he wanted to help the team; though still not close to 100%, he was capable of shorter outings and didn't want to go on the DL.

Since all pitchers are now apparently worth at least $21 million over three years, El Artista is indeed a bargain, and a valuable asset. The only logical reason to trade him now would be to acquire someone even better.

A few comments;

I like Koskie more than some posters. I think the Jays are pursuing him for two reasons, his ability to crush RH pitchers (comm for 3 year splits)and signablity. Against righties he's Superman ( Spiderman for the younger posters) pounding out a .893 clip against starboarders. When he faces lefties he's Clark Kent( Peter Parker)struggling with a 2004 Hinske like .711 OPS.( and yes I know OPS has its limitations, but it's a readily available stat) If he was even half-assed against lefties, were talking a star player who makes a star salary in the ten million dollar plus category. Put him out there with a guy who can hit lefties (Menninchino?) and you have pretty good offensive output( and defense) from this slot for reasonable dollars.

Batista at $4.75 million is indeed a bargain in todays market, good point Jordan, I'd keep him.

Signing Koskie and having Hill/Hinske around is a valid consideration, but its a good problem to have and I'm confident Riccardi can spin it positively.

Clement is too expensive for my blood, although I do like him, I'd spend my money on hitting in this market.

with Kenny Williams in charge, god knows who he'd be interested in...Chacin? Negron?

For Batista, Hinske and either of those guys, I'd want a lot more than a short-term rental of Konerko or Lee. I did say a long time ago that Ozzie Guillen might think highly of Chacin, so I'd be shopping him to the White Sox. If the Koskie thing falls through, I'd offer Hinske and Chacin for Lee and Crede and see what happens.

I don't usually indulge in this kind of speculation, because I know just enough to know how much I don't know.

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/splits3?statsId=6110&type=batting
Sorry here's Koskie's splits.(comm)

Good to see you posting regularly again coach, I've never thought of a Hill/Kent comparison its a good one.

Jamey Newberg is reporting that the Jays have offered the Rangers Ted Lilly for Kevin Mench.

That has "good trade for both teams, what are you waiting for?" written all over it.

Newberg also debunks the rumoured three-way mammoth Soriano-Sosa-Piazzw deal that would land Sammy back in Tejas and Sori back in the Apple.

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/splits?statsId=5301
As I stated earlier, in this type of market ,a low budget team like the Jays needs to be shopping at Wal-Mart, not Tiffany's. I'll toss out 3 cheap DH alternative names, Travis Lee, Brad Fullmer and Todd Hollandsworth (comm for his numbers). All these guys have significant issues with injuries etc.., but could be signed short term for cheap, with some proven ability to hit righties.

At the risk of upsetting those who think Orlando Hudson is the Jays' best player, my crystal ball says he'll be involved in a big deal about this time next year......Trading O-Dog to a richer club just before he becomes prohibitively expensive will allow the Jays to acquire more power.

I believe Hudson's first year of arbitration is a year from now. The first year of arbitration is pretty reasonable (maybe a couple million?).

Hudson won't be really expensive until the 2008 season (his 6th season, and final arbitration year). Up until that point the Jays should be getting a lot more value from Hudson then they are paying, although decreasing each year.

I expect Hudson to be in Toronto for 2005 and 2006 (age 27 and 28 season). He should be in his prime years then, and will still be a significant bargain (relative to free agents). I could see him traded after the 2006 season when he's in his 2nd year of arbitration (when it gets more expensive), but I'd be surprised if it happened before that point unless the Jays got a player in return that has similar service time.

Jamey Newberg is reporting that the Jays have offered the Rangers Ted Lilly for Kevin Mench.

To me, this deal only makes sense if Clement is acquired...If Clement is acquired then we can't afford Carlos Lee's 2005 contract (assuming we sign Koskie as well, along with bullpen arms and Zaun)

So, my speculation is that it comes down to Clement, Batista and Mench or Lilly, Lee and a 3 million a year type starter (i.e. 3/4 of a Corey Lidle)

Jamey Newberg is reporting that the Jays have offered the Rangers Ted Lilly for Kevin Mench.

That has "good trade for both teams, what are you waiting for?" written all over it.

How do you figure? The Jays look pretty set in RF for the next 6 years or so.

My... look at Koskie's numbers at the Skydome. Not pretty.

Jamey Newberg is reporting that the Jays have offered the Rangers Ted Lilly for Kevin Mench.

That has "good trade for both teams, what are you waiting for?" written all over it.

You're being sarcastic, right?

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/splits?statsId=6900
Well since I'm there, here's Mench's splits(comm).

Tough call, how much of this fellow's succes is due to Arlington? You'd certainly be selling Lilly at the top of his value, but the way the free agent market is going, Lilly provides huge value for the dollar.

Lilly for Mench, no way. I don't like giving up Lilly at all, but if he goes to Texas, I'd want Adrian Gonzalez here.

And Moffatt, stop stealing my brain waves, I don't have much to spare.

My... look at Koskie's numbers at the Skydome. Not pretty.

Yeah, we can learn a lot from the 29 AB he had there ;-D

Given the numbers Wildrose has shown vs RH pitchers I am happier with the acquisition of Koskie as a 1B than I was before

Mench's OPS+ was 115 or so this year, so playing in Arlington inflated his numbers.

Lilly is (at least) a 3 year, $21 million pitcher right now, and the Jays have him for $3 million next year.

I think this might be another case of:

JP: What would you want for Mench?
Rangers: How about Ted Lilly?
JP: Too rich for my blood, good luck

Well since I'm there, here's Mench's splits(comm).

Over the last 3 years, Mench has put up close to a "season" on the road. The stats for that season:

431 AB, 28 2B, 1 3B, 20 HR, 27 BB and 80K!, .258/.306/.466

There's some power there, but how much of an upgrade is this from Rios or Cat?

Hmm.... Lilly/prospect for Mensch/Gonzalez now were talking

Yeah, we can learn a lot from the 29 AB he had there ;-D

Well, they certainly looked worse when I thought it was 29 games, not at bats. Time to go and hide my head in shame.

I look at Mench and see his Delgadoeque 2nd half of 2004...did he have a career 1/2 season or did he put it all together? If he put it all together then we have a Carlos Lee type for 6 million less than Carlos Lee...is that worth giving up Lilly instead of Batista...there is a lot of ifs there, but I am guessing Mick saw Mench a lot over the 2nd half and believes the last 3 months were no fluke - hence the "good for both teams" remarks

Don't worry about it Doc, perhaps Koskie forgot about Canadian vs. U.S. beer content in his trips back home, driving down his skydome numbers.

Regarding the whole Aaron Hill dilemma if the Jays sign Koskie, can't the team just move Koskie over to 1B? It's not like there is a 1B prospect kicking down the door in the minors. If Hill proves to be ready, let him be a September call-up like Adams, and in 2006, shift Koskie over the 1B and platoon him if need be. There's no need to trade Hudson, Adams, or Hill, IMO. Now if Hattig starts detroying AAA, than we have an issue. A good issue, but an issue nonetheless.

I find myself agreeing with the "batista is a good deal" all of the sudden. This does seem to be an expensive time to go an get a starter. At the same time, signing someone at clements level now, makes it easy to trade a high end starter at the deadline for something very very good.

Regarding the whole Aaron Hill dilemma if the Jays sign Koskie, can't the team just move Koskie over to 1B?

I suppose that's an option, but I'd imagine part of the appeal of Koskie is his defense at 3b.

Or said another way, Koskie is more valuable to a team at 3B than he would be at 1B. By moving him to 1B you're not getting as much value since a 'replacement level' 1B is better than a 'replacement level' 3B.

I don't agree with this Batista is a bargain at all.

It's almost like saying, yeah he sucked, but hey atleast he sucked on the cheap as opposed to pitcher X who sucked for some team we shouldn't even care about for twice the cost.

The bottom line is Batista was horrendous down the stretch last season. I'm not willing to just say "oh he played hurt, that's why" because there are plenty of players around the league who play hurt and their numbers don't suffer the way Batista's did. And how does his playing hurt help the Jays AT ALL? It's romantic to the media to call him a "gamer" but in my opinion that's hurting your team and the Jays don't need that. If Batista alllows himself to be DL'ed, who knows, maybe Chacin gets an earlier call up to show what he can do.

I'm just saying, don't glorify Batista.

And by the way, what makes people think Hinske will bounce back? I just don't see it.

Thanks for the kind words, Wildrose. We're working this month on a major upgrade to the site (hoping to launch it by January 1) and I will be much more active when that is complete.

As I recall, Kent in Double-A was a speed guy who many of us expected to develop power. I lived in Florida when he made his Jays debut, so I only saw Jeff play a couple of times on TV, but I am more impressed with Hill's tools (and personality) at an equivalent point in their development.

This is an aspect of the Ricciardi plan that many people either overlook or fail to understand. A trade like Kent for Cone made sense only because Pat Gillick (correctly) identified his team was ready to win it all by adding the final piece. Obviously, trading the future for the present is insane when you're rebuilding, which is why the current Diamondbacks regime is the subject of such ridicule.

By stockpiling prospects, which he has so capably done already (with the best draft still to come) J.P. can make a similar deal -- or deals -- when the time is right. And yes, I do trust that he'll recognize that time. Fans might desperately want it to be 2006, but it looks more like 2007 from my old-fogey perspective. Patience is nearly extinct in our society -- even instant gratification takes too long for some folks. Fortunately, the Jays know that "quick fixes" are stupid, and hinder long-term success.

unless the Jays got a player in return that has similar service time

That's my point, Pistol. With the good 2005 I anticipate, O-Dog will still be a bargain and teams will line up for him. But thanks to the presence of Adams and Hill through 2010 or so, the Jays might be able to flip him for a 2006 masher who is also on the verge of cashing in. Top of my head, say Hudson and a couple of pitching prospects for Adam Dunn.

I'm not disagreeing with your timetable or assessment of Orlando's value. I just see him as a fantastic trading chip next winter, though it may not happen until the following year, which would be fine. He's a joy to watch.

Too rich for my blood, good luck

Now we're 100% in accord. Lilly for Mench? If the Jays really made that "offer," why hasn't Texas already accepted?

http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/primer/oracle/
Its being reported,Hudson to the Dodgers(comm). Billy sure likes to deal with his protoges.

Whoops,I guess given our earlier discussion that's TIM Hudson.

Lets Recap, If all these moves happen (doubtful)

In:
SP - Matt Clement - 3/24
3B - Corey Koskie - 3/16
LF - Carlos Lee - 2/16
RP - Jorge Sosa - arb elig
RP - Steve Kline
RP - Billy Koch

Out:
3B - Eric Hinske
SP - Miguel Batista
C - Kevin Cash
Prospect

Who would have thought that one player, ie Carlos Delgado would have such a turn over affect on the rest of the club, guess thats what happens when a monster 19 million dollars a year contract ends.

I hope J.P gets ambitious.

I'm not disagreeing with your timetable or assessment of Orlando's value. I just see him as a fantastic trading chip next winter

I don't disagree, you just don't see many trades like that made any more.

I like Lilly and a prospect for Mench and Adrian Gonzalez. It'd free us up with two million or so to add onto a offer to Matt Clement or a non-tendered pitcher (Josh Fogg or Wade Miller come to mind).

http://tsf.waymoresports.thestar.com/thestar/baseball/player.cgi?3208
Actually here's Gonzalez's numbers, not as good as I thought. (Comm)

I find myself agreeing with the "batista is a good deal" all of the sudden.

Blair was on The Score this morning (actually last night, I think) saying pretty much the same thing: that Batista is a bargain compared to what "mediocre" pitchers are getting at the Winter Meetings.

Tim Hudson makes the Dodgers awesome next year. I thought the Cards' offer (allegedly Haren and Ankiel) was excellent, so I'm a bit disappointed, but Antonio Perez fills a more immediate need for Oakland and Edwin Jackson could turn out to be a superstar. Of course, he won't be 22 until September and had some injury trouble last year, so the A's have taken a temporary step backwards in a highly competitive division. Billy must have something else up his sleeve.

Beane, Ricciardi and DePodesta like to make "win-win" deals with each other. That's no surprise; it's so much better to respect your trading partners than to attempt to fleece them. That's true even in fantasy ball, where it took Moffatt and I about 30 seconds to agree on a BBFL deal last year that helped both our teams. Of course, if some moronic GM makes you an offer that's lopsided in your favour, you gotta take it.

Which reminds me: Carlos Delgado is available once the BBFL winter meetings start.

Coach is DEAD ON right about Hill/Hudson.

Hill profiles at ss as not enough range, great arm, good bat. At third lots of range, lots of arm, fair bat. At 2nd lots of range, great arm, well above average bat.

Hill is an all star 2nd base guy. Hudson is GREAT and the ONLY Jay position player with a truly QUALITY guy behind him... Hudson is our ONLY great trade chip. This time next year...

I think Hill's defensive comparisons at each position would look something like this..

SS - Nomar Garciaparra
3B - Scott Rolen
2B - Adam Kennedy

A lot of exciting action this off-season. It seems like the Jays could really improve the team if the right deals fall into place. But it's all a big if at the moment. This is why I admire Theo Epstein--he's moving decisively to revamp the team. Of course, JP doesn't have the same advantages (large payroll, World Series winner, bigger market, grass field), so he has to play wait and see.

DaveInNYC: "The problem with prior threads where people compare Clement/Batista's stats and salary is that they TOTALLY neglect strikeouts as if they don't matter much."

Just to clarify, since you may be talking about my post yesterday, I wasn't really comparing Batista and Clement. I was just using Batista as an example of a pitcher that did not have good control and moved to the AL. Yes, Clement is a different pitcher, and he has better strikeout numbers, but he also has worse control and gives up homeruns at a much higher rate. In the AL, he'll probably walk 95 batters next year, and give up 30 homeruns. Sure, he'll also strike out 175 guys, but that's what puts him at mediocre instead of bad.

Just say "no" to Matt Clement. :)

I'm with those against Koskie. I just don't see the point. The Jays have to be going for upside at this point and Koskie simply doesn't have any. You'll be getting exactly what you pay for. That's fine if it's a contending year and you need to fill in a whole, but that's not the current Jays situation. They need to become a contender first and to do that they need to buy upside. If anything Hinske is the type of player the Jays should be targeting: Someone who has shown in the past that he's capable of performing well, but hasn't for a while which has driven his price down. Take Matt Lawton, last year, for example.

Does anyone else think the best signing the Jays make all winter could be that of Brad Arnsberg? Apparently this guy is excellent and if he can help Bush develop and maybe Chacin if he makes the team along with the rookies in the pen then I can't be anything but excited.

On another note, if J.P can move Cash for a relife pitcher from Tampa then he must be commended. Cash is terrible with the bat as J.P would be filling a hole on his team while getting rid of a minor league problem.

I couldn't resist passing this on:

The Arizona Republic
Dec. 12, 2004 12:00 AM

ANAHEIM - As the Diamondbacks conducted a late Saturday night meeting with Randy Johnson's agents, they continued their pursuit of contending status in the National League West.

They could announce the signing of free agent shortstop Royce Clayton by Monday and make another push toward second baseman Craig Counsell during their meeting with agent Barry Meister, who also represents Johnson.

"I told Royce he's the second best shortstop I've ever seen play," Colorado manager Clint Hurdle said. "Only (Hall of Famer) Ozzie Smith was better."

Maybe this explains some of Arizona's recent moves. They don't get out much.

It would explain that the only time they saw Glaus play was in the World Seires

Whoa, Mike, if Hill's even close to Rolen at 3B that would be miraculous. Scotty puts every throw between the eyes with no arc. He was better on one leg in the postseason than anyone else is on two.

Aaron occasionally throws off his back foot and has been known to pull a 1B off the bag. I think it's a combination of "styling" and bad habits like not squaring up, which Butter would eliminate within about 5,000 reps. The unknown about him at 2B would be the pivot; he does it well enough from the other side of the bag that I assume he'll make the adjustment. It could still turn out that Adams slides to 2B -- they are both young and talented, so whoever works the hardest to refine his game might ultimately win the SS job.

Greenfrog, I share your admiration for Theo and his staff. Most of the players Boston targets would also be high on the Jays' wish list, but it's definitely an added challenge to convince them to play in Toronto. J.P.'s "sales pitch" has always been straightforward honesty; some people (like me) respond very positively to that approach, others seem to enjoy having smoke blown up their -- uh, being flattered.

Count me among those who would consider any of the Tampa relievers mentioned a great return for Kevin Cash. I have stated here before that Cash still has a chance to be like Matheny or Ausmus and should be shopped to NL teams, but I figured for a "B" prospect or two. I also hope those rumours mean that a Zaun signing is imminent.

Has anybody heard anything about Aubrey Huff? I heard earlier in the off-season that the Rays were looking to deal him. If so, he'd be my pick for Delgado's potential replacement.

I predict the Jays will sign Koskie and Kline and trade for another bat in the next 2 days. They will address the pitching during the non tender period. I would say they'll pick up a guy like Wade Miller, and possibly pick up another cheaper short relief guy rather than 1 guy. Also I believe Batista will stay a Blue Jay, and be their closer for '05, and Zaun will also be signed.

Kevin Cash should be traded for whatever we can get for him. Whether its a bat, pitching depth, cash, or a new batboy, this guy should be moved. Its obvious that Quiroz is the better player.

Sorry I meant they will sign 2 short relievers instead of 1 more expensive ones. Justin Speier should be 1, and somebody like Jim Mecir the other.

This is just speculation, but it looks like the Yankees are going to have Mussina, Vazquez, Wright, Pavano, Milton and Brown in the fold after these meetings. Some might add Harnandez to that list. If the Diamondbacks have deluded themselves in believing they're contenders, I wouldn't be shocked if the RJ talks started up again, but this time for major league talent to deepen the Arizona rotation behind Brandon Webb. I imagine it would all depend on how much salary the Yankees are willing to eat.

Hernandez, even.

Hernandez, even.

Wasn't the word yesterday that Jared Wright conveniently failed his physical, at approximately the same time that Carl Pavano agreed to play for the Yankees?

Ya but he passed a second one soon after

I think the NYY have had a bizarre and net negative offseason so far. That said, if they deal Brownie to the Braves, as rumoured, and re-sign Hernandez to be the swing man/sixth starter, I really like this rotation heading into '05:

Mussina-Milton-Vazquez-Pavano-Wright

True, there's no HOF-quality #1 guy like they had with Clemens or would with Johnson, and there's only one lefty, but overall that front five plus one is as good as any in the game now.

if I were a playoff tema and had to chose between
Mussina-Milton-Vazquez-Pavano-Wright/Hernandez
and
Haliday-Clement-Lilly-Bush-Towers/Chachin
i thinkI'd take the toronto guys plus Clement

Apparently the trade talks of Brown to Atlanta are dead. However things have heated up with Brown going to the Padres.

The Yankees are also negotiating a trade of J. Vasquez for A.J Burnett. It is speculated Burnett would then be put in a package for Randy Johnson.

People are jumping the gun with the Hudson "trade".

Huddy hasn't even been dealt yet. A LA Writer was on MLB radio and said there wasn't a deal but that's what the Dodgers offered Beane, and he's going over his options right now.

Media types are quick to jump the gun.

God, I am so far behind.

Why is Beane shopping Hudson, again?

Hudson has demanded a trade if he isn't resigned by March 1st. It's been rumored that all of the A's Big Three are on the block, so that Beane can see what his best option is.

Media types are quick to jump the gun.

This has to be a joke, especially when you're quoting a "media type" to justify your skepticism. Ron, I'm sure you'd handle your sources with a much more discerning ear -- if you had any.

Thanks for the info on Jaret Wright. I wasn't aware of the second physical.

For those who arn't in the know but want to be check out rotoworld.com. You can pick up on all the latest transactions from the winter meetings there.

Not worth your time, SF.

For here or the mailbag: Kent from Toronto wants to know your top five candidates to play first base Opening Day. Or if you have time, top ten...

Speaking of Rotoworld, they say:

According to ESPN's Peter Gammons, Toronto could have Corey Koskie signed this afternoon.
It's going to be a three-year deal worth about $17 million

More from rotoworld... Apparently Koskie could be had the Jays by the end of today for 3/17 (I like the deal...) and Kline is slotted in behind Koskie and Clement as far as the Jays' priorities are concerned and he might be a bargain since NYY and BOS haven't looked at him...

Ducey scooped half of my story :-P...

OK, these rumours aren't a confirmation, and people jump the gun all the time, so a tentative "woo-hoo" and a premature welcome to one of the greatest Canadian players ever!

I don't understand how signing a 32 year old injury-prone 3B is going to help this team in two or three years. Koskie will never be as good as he was 3 years ago, and who knows how his body will react to the turf at the dome.
He is a player in his most rapidly declining years (32 onward) who will be making the more money than at any time during his career. I was under the impression that players fitting that description were not what the Jays would be pursuing. I sure hope JP knows what he is doing and that Koskie's splits will make him worth every penny.

Well, the defence improves dramatically. Hinske could be awesome with the big mitt and will definitely be a huge upgrade over Delgado at first, and with all due respect for Eric's hard work and dramatic improvement at third, Corey's pretty special over there.

The White Sox rumours loom larger now. That doesn't make them any more accurate.

Good points Tommy -- I hope though, the value in signing Koskie comes from whomever we get from either flipping Hinske for a 1B guy, or potentially, moving Hinske to 1B, and trading someone else for power.

3 yrs @ $17 MIL sounds a little pricey for his services, but I guess we had to outbid both LA and Detroit, as people have been speculating.

...

Some people were asking about potential 1B-guys? What about Tino Martinez, Brad Fullmer or Travis Lee? Each of these guys is serviceable, at least in my opinon, and could probably be flipped to DH for the occasional rest (likely more of an issue) while we break in a prospect (Hattig or someone).

...

Two pitching related question though?

1) Do people expect Wade Miller to be non-tendered (seemed to be hinted at above)? He would make an excellent pickup, but I assume there would be many chomping at the bit to get him.

2) Does anybody else think we should sign up Lilly now while to a more reasonable deal, so we aren't screwed by trading for some super-contract signed by the Yankees, or the Mets or someone later on in life, that was artificially inflated? Maybe if we signed Lilly for a further extension to 2006-2007, for 6 and 6.5 MIL, or like 5.5 and 6 MIL, then we would be in good shape for the near future.

I don't know about Clement anymore...an awesome pitcher yes, but worth the money that he will take out of Toronto's limited budget, that is questionable.

From Rotoworld:

The Blue Jays have no interest in signing Japanese reliever Denny Tomori after working him out yesterday.
Said GM J.P. Ricciardi, "Any time you have 87-year-old Bobby Mattick asking for a bat, that's a good time to pass." Dec. 12 - 3:10 pm et

The Blue Jays are talking to lefties Shawn Estes and Scott Downs.

If the Koskie signing goes down for the amount suggested then Clement is less of a possibilty. An extra million in two of the three years for Koskie means one Million less for Clement. Too bad because a Halladay, Lilly, Clement rotation would look just as good as Mussina, Pavano, Vasquez/Brown/Wright.

I like Estes, but only if the price is right. I'm still hoping for Steve Kline to be signed as well.

That is a lot to pay for marginally improved defence. I bet as time goes on, he'll be DH'd pretty frequently when the Jays are playing on turf.

I read some where ( probably rotoworld ) Miller was given a clean bill of health ( doesn't mean he won't get again ) and Houston would offer him a contract.

Why wouldn't the Jays be in the Tim Hudson sweepstakes?? Middle infield and young pitching are the strong suits. You can always flip Hudson later to fill holes....

JP wouldn't want to confuse Richard Griffin by having two Hudsons on the same team. He's a nice guy that way.

Still trying to think of some FA alternatives for starting pitching should we shy away from Clement...

What about Kevin Milwood (not what he once was) or Orlando Hernandez (risky)? I say if we are going to go the route of Estes, then we might as well stick with whom we have (Halladay, Lilly, Bush, Chacin and Towers/Batista). Estes seems like a Loaiza-type guy to me -- the occasional glimpse of talent, but can really go on prolonged bad streaks...

...

I decided to name my least favourite Blue Jay pitchers of the last few years

1) Pedro Borbon -- like a bullpen pitcher, who helps the other team (don't let his ERA fool you, he had some bad, bad streaks)

2) Esteban Loaiza -- pitched well-enough to get signed, crapped out in T.O., and went on to nearly grab a Cy Young

3) Joey Hamilton -- what a bust. Oh what a bad trade that was indeed.

4) Mike Sirotka -- enough said. Kenny Williams -- arrgh!

"Media types are quick to jump the gun.

This has to be a joke, especially when you're quoting a "media type" to justify your skepticism. Ron, I'm sure you'd handle your sources with a much more discerning ear -- if you had any."

SF, I'm not saying there's anything wrong with the media reporting what they hear from their sources, I'm just pointing out some people will jump the gun and report something (i.e. Pedro will sign a 40mil/3 year contract in the next 24-48 HR's a few days ago from RotoWorld)as if it's a fact.

I'm not slamming the sports media in any way shape or form. Heck after all we're only talking about player movement in baseball.

http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/wire?section=mlb&id=1944227
Apparently, concurrently with signing Pavano, the Yankees have developed concerns regarding Jaret Wright's health and are requesting that he re-take his medical examination. After Aaron Boone last year and Jason Giambi and Jaret Wright this year, the Yankees might develop a reputation as the "Bad Bronx Bombers" instead of the rich ones. COMN for the story.

I had thought that Wright took and passed a second physical, and that they decided to keep him in the end.

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=1944230
You're a little behind the times Mike. Get with the program! ;) COMN

You have to feal a bit bad for write if the Yankees say no after all this and he seems like he's hurt and haslost the winter meating to sign with another team

http://oakland.athletics.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/oak/news/oak_news.jsp?ymd=20041212&content_id=921387&vkey=news_oak&fext=.jsp
There's still been no announcement on the Hudson to LA trade. Seems like the newspaper that reported that one has jumped the gun. Plus, Hudson is denying there is a trade.

I'd have given that trade to the Dodgers. I have to think Beane can do better than that for the ace of his staff.

Question of the Day:

I wonder if a team will give Rickey Henderson a invite to Spring Training?

Have to give the 46 year old credit for even playing in the Independent League. He clearly doesn't need the money.

Rotoworld is reporting that there's a potential deal that would send Kevin Cash to the D-Rays for Travis Harper or Jorge Sosa.

I don't have much to say about the deal, but has anyone else noticed how often the Jays under JP have done position players for pitching deals? Lilly for Kielty, Lidle for Rouse, Frasor for Werth, Lopez for Arnold (and Griffin), Cooper for Fullmer, Wiggins for Mondesi, Heredia for Gonzalez, and now possibly this one.

The only ones I can recall going the other way were Koch for Hinske (and Miller), and Adams for Hattig. There may be others I'm forgetting, though.

No real point to this. Just found it interesting.

Rotoworld has this posted:

Tim Hudson told MLB.com that no trade between the Dodgers and A's has been completed yet.
"It's still all speculation right now," Hudson said. "If a deal was done, I'd know about it, and I haven't heard anything concrete." The A's may be trying to get an extra prospect from the Dodgers, who seem prepared to give up Edwin Jackson and Antonio Perez for Hudson.

http://www.aberdeennews.com/mld/aberdeennews/sports/baseball/10398742.htm
Alternatively, Hudson's agent seems to think he's going to LA. It's all nice and complicated and serving to keep me distracted from my studies.

If this trade is true it could turn out nicely for Oakland, but it comes with a significant amount of risk considering Jackson's strained forearm and the fact his minor league numbers, while very good for his age, are not outstanding.

I haven't checked either of their numbers but I think i'd rather have Sosa, he can compete for the 5th starter spot or pitch in the bullpen.. Either way, I like this trade no matter who we get in return.

Harper would be a nice return for Cash. Nothing outstanding, but a cheap, reasonably good arm to slot into a 7th inning role.

And at this point, Cash really isn't our plans anymore so losing him is not a big deal, except for the fact it necesitates we find two catchers (Myers potentailly being one, Zaun the other) to handle the duties for the first half of the year until Quiroz is ready.

I was refering to the potential Kevin Cash for Jorge Sosa/Travis Harper deal just incase anyone was confused by my last post.

Is the Rule 5 draft tomorrow ?

If Delgado's playing for someone else in the AL, do we really want Sosa? Isn't that streak still alive?

Actually... After looking at Harper's numbers compared to Sosa's... Give me Travis Harper!

http://www.baseball-reference.com/h/harpetr01.shtml
As much as I enjoy Cash throwing out runners, it seems like he's not going to be a big part of the team down the road, so if he could be traded for Travis Harper (COMN) I think I'd be in favor of it. Harper seems like a pretty decent reliever. (Sosa, while having a nice K rate walks almost just as many)

It'd be Harper's first year of arbitration, so he'd probably be in the $1-$1.5 million range.

Looking at both he and Speier, they look pretty similar - consistent ERA+ of 110-120.

Is the Rule 5 draft tomorrow ?

Yes.

Marc's Pinch Hit-Rule 5 draft preview

Baseball America's Rule 5 Preview

Baseball Prospectus Rule 5 Draft - Top 25 Eligible Players (subscriber only)

Question on the astro-turf; does it have as much of an impact on the corner positions? How thick is the dirt that they lay on top of the rubber?

From what I'm hearing, there's not a tremendous amount of interest to the Jays in the Rule 5 Draft cupboard this year. There might be more action in the minor-league portion. But the Jays' moves at the Winter Meeting -- if they ever happen -- might have an impact on what they need or want.

When are the winter meetings over?

If that Sisco kid (Andy?) is around when we pick, i'd like it very much if we'd pick him up.

Why wouldn't the Jays be in the Tim Hudson sweepstakes??

Hudson's a free agent next year. If the Jays were poised for a pennant race, sure they would have made an offer. Would you give up six years of (for example) League and Hill for one season of any pitcher unless you were pretty sure of winning? Renting Huddy makes sense to the Dodgers, Cards and Braves, who see him as the final piece of the puzzle.

Does anybody else think we should sign up Lilly now...?

Lilly's here for two more years at a very reasonable cost. He's arbitration-eligible next winter, so if he has a career year in 2005, could get about $7 million for 2006 before finally testing the market in 2007. He's not likely to give up that opportunity. He's also quite tradeable, right up to the '06 deadline, as each starter who signs this winter makes him look like more of a bargain. Maybe after the free-agent musical chairs, a contender left standing will overpay.

Question on the astro-turf; does it have as much of an impact on the corner positions?

It's almost certainly going to be replaced by FieldTurf now that the Jays own the Dome. It actually plays slower than some grass fields and gives reasonable hops.

Does anybody know Travis Lee's status? Is he still a Yankee? If not, he might be a nice cheap replacement at 1B; being one of the best defensive 1B in baseball (with a little speed to boot) and before his injury last year seemed to be coming around a bit as a hitter.

http://www.palmbeachpost.com/marlins/content/sports/epaper/2004/12/12/z1b_marlins_1212.html
Here's some new rumours:

The New York Yankees, who are finalizing a four-year contract that will pay the 28-year-old Pavano about $39 million, spent parts of Friday and Saturday talking to the Marlins about a trade that would add A.J. Burnett to New York's rotation.

The Marlins would get right-hander Javier Vazquez, according to two major-league sources with knowledge of the talks.

"That would be pretty cool," Burnett said before cracking a joke about Yankees owner George Steinbrenner's clean dress codes. "I don't know if I could shave my goatee."

After being informed that Pavano wanted to go to New York, the Yankees asked the Marlins if they would be interested in Vazquez. The Yankees indicated they would be interested in Burnett, who is Pavano's best friend. The Marlins were intrigued, knowing they could potentially save money because Burnett will become a free agent in 2006.

Very quickly, the Yankees are going to have a dynamite rotation. Especially if, as I believe, that if they got Burnett, they'd send him as part of a package for Randy Johnson.

Oh yeah, for the source, COMN.

Blue Jays Off Season Observations:

1. Odalis Perez should be on the Blue Jays Wish List alongside Matt Clement.

2. Hinske is not an option as a MLB regular at any position.

3. Batista will never be a starter you can trot out every fifth day. We should keep him at his current price and get 140-160 IP out of him unless he can be packaged with Hinske for an .850 OPS 1b/OF bat (which I doubt).

4. We should consider signing J.Gonzalez to a one year incentive laden deal.

5. 1 of Hill or Adams should be dealt for offensive/starting pitching help if we can acquire Koskie.

"1. Odalis Perez should be on the Blue Jays Wish List alongside Matt Clement."

J.P. always says he goes after undervalued free agents, while Perez isn't as good as a Matt Clement, he's not the worst pitcher in the world.. I'd say Perez is being undervalued in the market, if you could get him for 2 years at around 2.5 million a year then i'd jump all over that.

If Delgado's playing for someone else in the AL, do we really want Sosa? Isn't that streak still alive?

Indeed it is. Going back to September 10, 2003, in fact. Five straight homeruns. Maybe we should start a pool; guessing when the streak will die (i.e., the next non-HR). Once Carlos signs somewhere, we can check the 2005 schedule and pick a date and inning.

Does anybody know Travis Lee's status? Is he still a Yankee? If not, he might be a nice cheap replacement at 1B; being one of the best defensive 1B in baseball (with a little speed to boot) and before his injury last year seemed to be coming around a bit as a hitter.

The Yankees declined Lee's option for 2005, so he's a free agent. I don't know if he's worth a look, he hasn't played since mid-May.

As far as Tampa relievers go, is there any chance of us getting Jesus?

I'm sure the Cheer Club would have some fun if we picked up Jesus Colome.

If the Jays are going to sign Koskie, why not build in some incentives? Say, create a base $8M for 2 years, with extra cash and a 3rd year vesting if certain incentives are reached (say, 450-500 AB in each of the first two years, and an OPS of 800+) that could increase the total to 3 years and $16-18M. This would make me much happier. Of course, this is unlikely to happen, but hey, it's worth a try. I think a 3-year deal at $17M may come back to haunt the Jays.

".P. always says he goes after undervalued free agents, while Perez isn't as good as a Matt Clement, he's not the worst pitcher in the world.. I'd say Perez is being undervalued in the market, if you could get him for 2 years at around 2.5 million a year then i'd jump all over that."

The Nationals have offered Perez a 18mil/3 year deal. Perez is still going over his options right now. I assume he wants to be in the price range of Benson, Lieber, Wright, Milton, and Clement.

If the Jays are going to sign Koskie, why not build in some incentives?

Because he can sign with a team without incentives.

I'd say Perez is being undervalued in the market, if you could get him for 2 years at around 2.5 million a year then i'd jump all over that.

I'd be shocked if he's not getting $5 million/year. I can't believe he's that's undervalued.

As far as Tampa relievers go, is there any chance of us getting Jesus?

Well, if Jesus can't save games for the Jays no one can.

Perez should come cheaper than Clement, 6 mill per year for 3 years or so being the likely price tag. Especially if we were to act now.

Millwood could also emerge as an undervalued starter.

Remember that scene from "A Beautiful Mind" where Crowe's character figures out that if he and his buddies all go after the hot chick everybody goes home without a date, but if they go after her less hot but still appealing friends they all get lucky. The Jays should pursue a similar strategy and attempt to get one of Perez or Millwood now instead of losing out on whoever might be the best remaining starting pitcher on the market from here one out (and their prices invariably go up).

Also, despite suspect health, a gopher ball problem and issues with walking batters, the Jays might also consider an incentive laden package for HIDEO NOMO. Best Case Scenario is a 4.50 league average ERA and a 4th or 5th starter with the ability to win one out of 5 of his starts by himself, worst case scenario is the loss of the 1 or 2 mill gauranteed it would take to get him.

Pedro Astacio could also be worth rolling the dice on an incentive laden deal.

These are the sort of league average innings eaters we've sorely lacked the last few years.

W

It is appearing more and more likely that we
A) will get Corey Koskie for 3/17
B) we wont get Matt Clement

This aside, it seems like a lot of good stuff is going on. Signing Koskie gives us a good third baseman as well as a hometown (well, this is about as close as we get in Canada) kid. It frees up Hinske for a deal, maybe to the Reds, and who knows what happens. I think its pretty clear that hes getting a little too much money, but if you really want people you have to pay for them sometimes. He did his 25 hr's in 420 ab's last year, which is decent, and could easily be 30+ hr's a year with ahealthy season at the dome. Plus he plays decent defense. Eric Hinske's best season, his rookie year, was about the same as Koskie's worst season, which was last year.
Koskies going to be a solid guy with an OPS in the mid 850's, 25+ hr and a good obp

It seems like JP's interested in Shawn Estes and because the Steve Kline markets soft we migh get in on that too. ANd Kevin Cash could be going to the DEvil Rays

There are quite a few intriguing names available in the Rule V draft: Blake McGinley, Andy Sisco, Brad Knox, Alex Romero, Jason Cooper and Jon Connolly are a few that stand out. Knox went 14-5, 2.59 ERA, 174/24 K/BB in 156.1 IP for Kane County (A) last year. He maybe a bit too far removed, but it's hard to ignore those number. Jason Cooper had a monster year at A ball in 2003, and could be a decent reserve outfielder, although we seem to have enough outfielders on the MLB club.

If I was in charge I'd certainly take someone in the major league portion of the draft. It is only $25,000 if you end up offering them back.

Just heard it live on MLB Radio... Cash traded to the Rays for Gaudin. Hey first for a Saskatchewan Boy isn't it?

East Valley Tribune (Scroll Down): "Texas and Toronto have some interest in infielder Shea Hillenbrand, believed to be expendable with the signing of third baseman Troy Glaus."

Interesting if Koskie somehow falls through.

Yeah, for his first start in AA, he threw a perfect game.

http://tsf.waymoresports.thestar.com/thestar/baseball/player.cgi?4330
Good work, here's Gaudins numbers(comm)

All these rumours, some of which are "on the verge" of coming true, and yet ... the only reported transaction is Cash for Gaudin. How typical of rumours. They're fun, no doubt, but overall they're pointless except to show how little people like Gammons and Stark actually know.

Great trade. Don't think Cash was ever going to hit. Gaudin is only 21. This can only end up good for the Jays. Think he has way more upside than Harper. Plus Sosa never looked like he was going to put it all together.

Oh yeah: nice little deal for the Jays; Guadin has some upside. Of course, I was also thrilled -- well, "thrilled" is a bit glib; how about "satisfied" -- when the Jays picked up Dan Reichert.

Gaudin is only 21 so he has time to develop some more.

Here's a good little story on Gaudin's slider. COMN

Okay, I admit it. I don't know what I'm doing. Here's the link:
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/columns/story?columnist=olney_buster&id=1786067

The Gaudin deal looks like a good one - I really like his age at 21. One thing that struck me about his profile though is his weight...only 165 pounds. Anybody knows what his pitching repetoire is like?

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/columns/story?columnist=olney_buster&id=1786067
Prisoner: you want to put the link in the "Homepage" box.

http://www.raysbaseball.com/Chad_Gaudin.shtml
Gaudins google.....comm

East Valley Tribune (Scroll Down): "Texas and Toronto have some interest in infielder Shea Hillenbrand, believed to be expendable with the signing of third baseman Troy Glaus."

If JP has any interest in Shea Hillenbrand then he's lost all Moneyball credibility.

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/columns/story?columnist=olney_buster&id=1786067
Many thanks. Hope this works: COMN.....

The Jays finally make a move. I think it'll be good for the club in the long run. Been a slow afternoon/evening so far, waiting to hear on Koskie.

And the article Prisoner leads us to tells us that Gaudin is a little guy with a big slider - he lives and dies with it.

I think we remember seeing him last June when he started against the Jays and walked four batters in the first inning. Pinilla pulled him and only one scored, and the D-Rays went on to win...

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=1944972
Here's the AP story on the Cash trade.

J.P's interest in Hillenbread is this, none. The guy is a strikeout machine and goes agaits everything that Moneyball stands for.

A guy that might make sense is Graham Koonce, the guy is 30 , is a professional hitter , only needs a chance, hes not on the A's 40 man so i guess hes eligible for the rule 5. I think the jays have nothing to lose except a roster spot which obviously isnt being used by one Matt Clement , or Corey Koskie.

I've started a new thread to discuss the Cash trade.

It's my understanding Moneyball has nothing to do with strike outs and everything to do with finding bargains in a given marketplace. That being said I don't know if Hillenbrand fits the latter definition either.

Jack, you're wrong. It's Billy Beane's autobiography where he talks about how smart he is.

Rotoworld reports that Tony Saunders, the former Devil Rays pitcher who twice broke his arm while pitching, is attempting a comeback as a reliever and is hoping to sign a minor league contract.

He is truly one of the hard-luck stories of the past half-decade, and I hope he catches on somewhere and makes it back to the show.

Pinilla? My bad...

I'm thinking that that the Jays want to be able reduce their runs allowed by about 60. More than half of that should come from giving Pat Hentgen's innings to Roy Halladay. I think a whole year of David Bush will be better than 16 starts by Bush and 16 by Justin (6.05) Miller.

In which case, if they can score about 40 more runs than they did last year, they should be breaking even on runs for and against, and be in the general neighbourhood of .500, which would certainly be encouraging.

This is the production they got out of each position last year.

POS-G-AB-R-H-2B-3B-HR-TB-RBI-BB-SO-SB-CS-BA-OBP-SLG-OPS

C 161-567-65-138-36-0-10-204- 63-51-129- 1-2-.243-.318-.360-.678
1b 161-588-87-160-30-0-33-289-116-77-129- 2-1-.272-.361-.491-.853
2b 161-608-90-158-37-8-18-265- 73-70-122- 7-4-.260-.339-.436-.775
SS 161-584-62-154-27-8- 6-215- 59-43- 85- 3-4-.264-.317-.368-.685
3B 161-606-74-146-24-3-14-218- 70-59-117-11-8-.241-.310-.360-.669
LF 161-620-76-173-39-1-11-247- 80-43-110- 1-3-.279-.329-.398-.728
CF 161-661-97-184-40-2-26-306- 86-53-102-12-2-.278-.337-.463-.800
RF 161-635-80-176-32-9- 6-244- 56-45-119-18-4-.277-.331-.384-.716
DH 152-557-74-130-23-3-17-210- 66-56-138- 1-2-.233-.316-.377-.693

If Koskie comes on board, he makes up for most of Delgado's 2004 production. I don't like his chances of matching Delgado's 2005 production, but that's not the problem.

Catcher and shortstop should be a little better - Kevin Cash will not be batting 181 times, which is bound to help the team. Adams should do a little more than Gomez/Woodward. Centre field will also be marginally better if Wells can simply play 150 games this time.

So I think at this point, the offense is roughly even with last year. If the offense is going to take a step forward, there are four spots where it needs to improve:

Can the Hinske spot in the lineup be better, whoever or whatever it is? One would think so: even the 2003 Hinske would be better.

Can the team get more than 17 HRs combined from the two corner outfielders? One would think so: I've already said I'm expecting 14 from Rios this year.

Can we find a designated hitter that will be better than .233 with 17 HR and .377 slugging percentage? One would think so: couldn't you once upon a time pick up someone like Cliff Johnson or Ken Phelps in exchange for a ride to the airport?

Uh -- strikeout machine?

Shea Hillenbrand struck out 49 times last year.

Corey Koskie, for example, struck out 103 times in well over 100 less AB's.

The meaning of "Moneyball" has been totally distorted. It does not mean playing station to station, OBP to the exclusion of all else. What Moneyball is all about is finding players who have something that is under valued in the market. At the time that Moneyball was written, OBP was that undervalued commodity. It's all about getting the most bang for the buck filling in the holes in your club with players under appreciated in the market but have hidden value. The main point of moneyball is building a club from your minor league system and pillaging other systems for diamonds in the rough.

Its reported that the Jays will sign Koskie but not until later on in the week first he has to pass a physical.

what's wrong with a .348 on-base percentage anyways?

Ughh...let's not have the "meaning of Moneyball is..." discussion again. The only reason I brought it up is that Hillenbrand is the sort of player who gets overvalued by traditional boosters who look at avg and rbis. Dig deeper into his stats and you find that Hillenbrand is an offensive cypher. He's exactly the guy that JP should avoid.

what's wrong with a .348 on-base percentage anyways?

Not a darn thing although I would like to see the other numbers that go along with it.

I personally would prefer a guy who hit .250/.348/ to a guy who hit .310/.348 because it would imply better strikezone awareness. If the pitchers adjust to the guy hitting .310 and his average drops, you could quickly see an OBP below .300. The guy hitting .250/.348 would not decline nearly as much.

Even in digging through Hillenbrand's stats, I still don't see anything glaringly poor in his numbers. What don't you like?

http://toronto.bluejays.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/tor/news/tor_news.jsp?ymd=20041211&content_id=920829&vkey=news_tor&fext=.jsp
I'm pretty much just making this up as I go along, but I personally don't see anything that awful in going after Hillenbrand. Sure, he doesn't walk at all and strikes out all the time, but perhaps this could just make him undervalued by the market, which at least in my opinion is moving towards embracing Moneyball. The fact is that he still hits .300, and getting base hits might be the way we score runs next year, at least if Koskie ends up being our cleanup hitter at any rate. In the article I linked to, Gibbons mentioned using speed instead of power. It isn't necessarily Moneyball but it's something we can do, at least. I'm of the opinion that the Jays struggled last year because they tried to walk and homer consistently but just didn't have the players to do that. Getting someone like Hillenbrand who at the very least can score runners from second might work well with a base-hit approach. Especially while everyone else is trying to go Moneyball and leaving players like Hillenbrand behind.

I personally don't see anything that awful in going after Hillenbrand.

He's a solid guy who can fill a hole. As a third baseman, he's an upgrade on the 2004 Hinske and he's currently with a team that has third basemen oozing out of every orifice. He made $2.6 million last year, and he's a little under four years service time, so you would control him for at least two years. He's spent his career in Boston and Arizona, but he has absolutely no home/road differential at all. I like Joe Crede better - he's younger, a whole lot cheaper, and better defenisvely - but Hillenbrand is OK.

But that's as a third baseman. As a first baseman... pass.

hillibrand DOES NOT STRIKE OUT ALL THE TIME. he is striking out at a less than 1 in 10 attempts

Moneyball is about employing objective quantitative methods to accurately assess the "true" value of baseball players. Knowing more accurately the "true" value of a player provides an inherent advantage in any transaction.

Teams like the A's however run into problems because they don't recognize that the "true" values they assign to players are not congruent with "market" values. Hence they waste 1st round picks on guys they could have got much later rather than taking a player lower on their list but higher on everyone elses or they pay Scott Hatteberg millions.

Thankyou , Joe Morgan.

Instead of clement, why not sign ramon ortiz.

I think he would be very cheap ... and he has some decent peripherals

I think Travis Lee is certainly worth giving a spring-training invite to; with Koskie (fingers crossed) at 3rd, Hudson at 2B, and Lee at 1B that'd be a pretty impressive defensive infield.

You aren't going to be able to replace the offensive production you lost in Delgado but you can certainly try to make up for it in other areas ie. defense.

Wes, please stick to one handle. It may be true that the A's are overdrafting guys, but it may also be true that they're doing it to control costs. A consensus 1st-rounder costs a whole lot more to sign than a guy like Jeremy Brown.

Great post breaking down the offence, Magpie. FYI, you can use < pre > and < /pre > tags to preserve the ASCII formatting (as you see when you're typing a comment).

Actually isn't Hillibrand a good bet to maintain his obp since he only struck out 48 times in 500+ at bats. The low strike outs are an indication he's making good contact so the .300+ average isn't a fluke.

And here's hoping we get fieldturf for next season. I know the infielders and pitchers (Halladay in particular) would sure love a slower, softer surface. I hear Olympic Stadium has a sale on.

Would SkyDome have a dirt infield with FieldTurf (Tropicana) or just the cut-outs (Olympic). The cut-outs can be a pain, especially for runners. Instead of running on a flatter, smoother surface (astroturf), or a flat dirt surface (most MLB parks), they are running on a surface equivalent to a grass field which may affect speed.

And if the Jays were looking to manufacture runs via small ball and not the big HR, then maybe having a real dirt infield would be of more interest to them as supposed to the cut-outs

Where would Hillenbrand play then if Koskie is signed and Hinski is still on the club?

Since Arizona is so stupid this off season maybe they'll trade Hillenbrand straight up for Hinski!

Sorry Jonny, new to all this.

Magpie, any idea how the Jay's 2004 team DH season ranks historically? Its got to be one of the worst DH seasons since the inception of the position.

JayFan, I agree the Jays should take some chances on guys like Ramon Ortiz. Granted being on a tight budget isn't conducive to taking chances on guys but why not throw a little cash at Ramon Ortiz, Pedro Astacio, and Hideo Nomo.

I'd feel more comfortable with Ortiz as our 5th starter than an unproven roll the dice rookie. Winning Teams don't plan on having a rookie step up in Spring Training to win a rotation spot, if it happens it happens. There is a good chance Ortiz will be below average but his presence gaurantees a passable worst case scenario.

As for Travis Lee, based on Magpie's postthe Jays should have an interest in anybody capable of putting up .800 OPS seasons for minimal cost. Lee could help at 1st or DH but you'd have to hope we could do better at one of the two openings via trade.

W

any idea how the Jay's 2004 team DH season ranks historically?

The Jays have done worse. With the exception of the Molitor years, the position often seems to have been an afterthought.

In 1982, the team went 78-84. Their designated hitters, led by the immortal Wayne Nordhagen, hit .239 with 8 HR and 56 RBI. That off-season, Gillick went out and got Cliff Johnson and Jorge Orta. In 1983, the DHs hit 34 HRs and drove in 113

The division winners of 1989 also had a black hole at DH. Rance Mulliniks had an awful year, and Bob Brenly was washed up. This was the main reason the DHs hit .216 with 8 HR and 55 RBI.

maybe having a real dirt infield would be of more interest to them as supposed to the cut-outs

My priority would be whatever is least likely to contribute to an injury. Sounds like "real dirt" to me.

Since Arizona is so stupid this off season maybe they'll trade Hillenbrand straight up for Hinski!

The irony here is killing me...

Sorry Jonny, new to all this.

No harm, no foul.

Wow Magpie, you are a repository of DH related info.

Do you have that info for every position at your fingertips?

Instead of clement, why not sign ramon ortiz.

I think he would be very cheap ... and he has some decent peripherals

Are HRs allowed not a part of peripherals anymore?

Well, he did say some decent peripherals...;)

I think the Argos use the cut-outs, so that's probably what the Jays will get too.

Anyone know which teams are still in on Clement?

I don't know how Clement feels about living in California, but I've got to think Anaheim has a good chance of inking him. They've got a very good team (now even better with Finley as their CF) with a great chance at winning the AL West in 2005, especially now that Oakland has traded away Hudson. And I think they'll pay more for him than Toronto. My guess is $28M for 3 years.

Of course, if I were the Jays GM, I would be pitching the following to Clement: (1) the Jays are relatively young, with a decent farm system, and we should be competitive as soon as 2006 (this is a sales pitch, after all!); (2) Toronto's "livability" factor; (3) the chance to join Halladay, Lilly, and Bush in what would be a first-rate rotation; (4) if we sign Koskie, our team defense is starting to look pretty good; (5) Arnsberg magic.

What does Steve Finley have on Vernon Wells either then a big bank account?

Clement will certinly consider Toronto but if it's all about money to him then T.O will be out of the picture.

Wes, Magpie knows everything.

Magpie knows everything.

He especially knows that the Jays Media Guide is just full of all sorts of stuff....

Lee could help at 1st or DH

Lee's value is substantialy less if he is not playing 1st base. He is an outstanding defender.

What does Steve Finley have on Vernon Wells either then a big bank account?

A career year in his contract year.

I was just watching Sportscentre (TSN) and they mentioned tomorrows rule 5 draft.. The reporter stated that JP mentioned a player that he had his eye on that could help the team next year. That would lead me to believe that its a hitter.

http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/news?slug=ap-wintermeetings-dodgers&prov=ap&type=lgns
Dodgers are officially out of the running for Koskie.

http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/news?slug=ap-bluejays-koskie&prov=ap&type=lgns
Dodgers are officially out of the running for Koskie.

It don't matter no more; welcome to the Jays Mr. Koskie. COMN.

3 years/17 mil.

Welcome aboard, Corey.

I'd love to see Hinske/Bastita/Gross flipped for Lee next and/or some movement with Clement. A 17 mil deal probably looks like 5/5.5/6.5, which leaves somewhere around 7-9 mil left this offseason. If Clement does not sign, and if the 3/30 deal with the Angels is true he probably won't, I wonder where that cash goes.

With the signing of Koskie the Jays still need another run producer. I would put another bat as a bigger priority than a SP and reliever.

JP is in a position to take on some salary through a trade and hopefully this can land the Jays a bat and leave them with enough room to take a run at Perez and Kline.

I must say as a fan, it's nice when your club actually has financial flexability to make moves. Even with just the speculation this off-season has been a lot more interesting than the past 2 off-seasons.

Koskie was a guy I hoped the Jays made a run at after the season ended and I'm happy he'll be wearing a Jays uni next season. If no other major bats are brought in,I expect to see Koskie bat clean up.

What does Steve Finley have on Vernon Wells either then a big bank account?

A career year in his contract year.

He had a great year, but not a career year.

In his career, he has had 9 seasons in which his +OPS was at least as good as this year. He has had at least 4 seasons of comparable homeruns, 5 comparable seasons of RBI's and his average was, well, just average [in light of his career average anyways].

Finley is a good to very good player that has stayed in incredible shape as he has gotten older. I think he has a good chance to perform pretty well over the course of his contract....though that does not justify the money he's getting...

In regards to Finley, I just noticed that if he had his stats in a different era, he could've had a chance at the HOF. Weird.

By the time he retires he's probably at:

H-2600 to 2700
R-1450 to 1500
HR-320 to 350
RBI-1300
SB-320

Thats a borderline HOF in some eras.

I don't think he has used steroids, at least one wouldn't think so since he has stayed so healthy over his career. Another thing that people might be thinking about when voting people into the HOF, like it or not. Regardless, Finley will not make it into the HOF.

Regardless, Finley will not make it into the HOF.

Nor did I ever imply he would/should. Just saying that there have been players with similar stats that have made it in to the HOF. Compares to Richie Ashburn, Billy Williams, Enos Slaughter, Al Kaline, Duke Snider, Hack Wilson, Earl Averill, Harry Hooper, Heinie Manush, Edd Roush, and Zach Wheat, at least in counting stats...most beat Finley in +OPS.

All I'm saying, is that it's interesting...not that Finley is HOF.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20041212.wxkoskie13/BNStory/Sports/
The Globe has the Koskie signing, and it's actually free to read for a change! 3/17 is the deal, and to quote Jeff Blair:
There is a vesting option year for 2008 at $6.5-million that would kick in based on plate appearances in the next two years.

A 2008 option that doesn't take 2007 into account? Strange...COMN for story.