Here's part II of my bandwidth-choking thread on Blue Jays minor league hitters. Have fun!
Joe Lawrence
Buzz Factor: 3
Marginal infield prospect who was asked to convert to catcher in 2000. Always had tremendous plate discipline in the minors, and actually walked 105 times in Dunedin in 1998. He seems to be able to do everything but hit, alas. Originally signed with the draft pick the Jays received as compensation for losing Roberto Alomar.
Manuel Lee
Buzz Factor: 6
Played several years in the majors before letting people know that he wished to be called "Manuel" instead of "Manny", which I guess says all you need to know about him (or, possibly, how he was treated). Actually hit better in the majors than his minor league numbers would indicate: except for a batting title in A-ball in 1984, Manuel never really hit much on the farm. Did you know that he grew up on the same street as Pedro Guerrero? The same street!
Nelson Liriano
Buzz Factor: 5
I didn't realize that he ran that well: lots of triples, and a great stolen base percentage. His plate discipline wasn't bad, either. Had he been able to hit just a little better, he would have had a long career as a leadoff man. Epy Guerrero signing. From the 1990 media guide: "Was pursued by the New York Yankees prior to signing with Toronto." Moral: to be successful in the scouting business, you need to be able to run faster than your competitors.
Felipe Lopez
Buzz Factor: 8
A lot of people have said a lot of things about Lopez's work ethic - probably justifiably - but no one has mentioned his high strikeout rates, or his low batting averages in the minors. From these numbers, it seems likely that Lopez just has too many holes in his swing to succeed at the major league level, and all the attitude in the world can't fix that. He was younger than most players at his level, though, so he could still improve. Struck out 157 times in class-A ball in 1999.
Luis Lopez
Buzz Factor: 4
Long-time minor-leaguer who couldn't hit well enough to play first in the majors, or field well enough to play third in the majors (as one embarrassing trial conclusively proved). Baseball Prospectus calls this "Prospect's Disease," and it's invariably fatal. Won an R. Howard Webster Award in 1999 and 2001. His stats are not listed in the Jays' 2002 media guide, despite his winning the award.
Fred Manrique
Buzz Factor: 3
Decent middle infield prospect, with some pop in his bat, but trapped behind Tony Fernandez. Was essentially donated to the Expos in 1985, and spent parts of the next eight seasons bouncing between the minors and six major-league teams. Low walk totals basically did him in. The youngest of 10 children.
Domingo Martinez
Buzz Factor: 3
Perennial first-base sorta-prospect, who spent eternity in the Jays' high minor leagues waiting for The Call That Never Came. Was tried at catcher in 1989. Was a September callup in both 1992 and 1993 - I wonder if he got any World Series rings? Was traded to the White Sox in 1994 for Mike Huff.
Sandy Martinez
Buzz Factor: 4
Praised for his defensive skills at a time when the Jays had no prospects to speak of. There was no reason to expect him ever to hit in the majors, and he didn't. Cruddy plate discipline.
Fred McGriff
Buzz Factor: 8
Never put up a monster season in any particular league, as he either switched levels mid-season or got hurt. Hit 28 home runs in 1983 and 22 home runs in 1984, so everybody could see him coming. Injuries delayed his development a year or two. Was seemingly born with good plate discipline: his walk totals were good all the way through his minor-league career. Never hit for a high average in the high minors, probably because he was young for his level. Hit only .148 in his first season as a pro (in 1981, for the Yankees' Gulf Coast League farm club).
Lloyd Moseby
Buzz Factor: 9
If you want to think of what would have happened to Vernon Wells had he been promoted to the majors right away, look at Moseby. The Shaker rocketed through the minors even faster than V-Dub did, hitting .304 in rookie ball in 1978 and .332 in Dunedin in 1979. He went 2 for 4 with a double in his Jays debut in 1980, went 3 for 5 with a home run in his next start, and hit safely in his first four games. Was cut from his first Little League team.
Pedro Munoz
Buzz Factor: 5
Another Epy Guerrero signing, Munoz was sent to Minnesota, along with Nelson Liriano, for John Candelaria. This is possibly the worst stretch drive trade the Jays ever made. Munoz had some serviceable seasons with the Twins, but never really gained control of the strike zone at the major league level. Proof of the fleeting nature of a baseball career: one year after hitting .301 with 18 home runs for the Twins in 1995, he was out of the major leagues for good. No wonder players seem "greedy" in contract negotiations - each contract may be their last.
Greg Myers
Buzz Factor: 7
Here's something I didn't know about Myers until I looked him up in this year's media guide: he's gotten hurt a lot. He was injured in 1988, 1989, 1990, 1992, 1994, 1995 (three times), 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, and 2001. Perhaps his latest renaissance is just due to his finally being healthy for a change. His recent power surge isn't that surprising when you look at his minor league numbers: he hit 20 home runs in A-ball in 1986, and was crushing the ball in 1988 before, yes, getting hurt. Crash looks so much older in his 2003 media guide pic than he did in his 1991 pic. Mind you, we all looked a lot younger twelve years ago, didn't we?
Greg O'Halloran
Buzz Factor: 3
From Mississauga (poor man). One step behind Randy Knorr in the organization, and put up roughly the same level of performance - i.e., not quite enough. It must be tough to get close to the big money but not all the way there. Had a cup of coffee with Florida in 1994, so at least he's got his name in the Baseball Encyclopedia.
John Olerud
Buzz Factor: 10
Hailed as Superman brought to life when first signed: He can hit! He can pitch! He's recovered from a life-threatening ailment! He can fly if he wants to! What you may have forgotten: by 1991, the papers were calling for him to be sent down for seasoning in favour of Ed Sprague. If my memory serves me correctly, some writers of the time saw it as practically a moral issue, implying that Big John needed the sort of character-building experience that only crappy minor league ballparks can provide. Obviously, the writers were wrong. John's father, also named John, was a minor-league catcher, and is mentioned in Jim Bouton's Ball Four.
Jeff Patzke
Buzz Factor: 2
The Baseball Prospectus people just loved this guy because of his high walk totals. At one point, BP claimed that the Jays could make the postseason if they just put Patzke at second and Evans at third. Erm, no. I seem to recall reading that Patzke wasn't good enough defensively to play second, and he didn't hit well enough to play elsewhere. When he was demoted out of the Jays' system, the Jays mailing list found out about it before his mother did. (I saw him play once at Altoona - he looked slow but, indeed, patient.)
Robert Perez
Buzz Factor: 4
Of the three men who won batting titles at Syracuse, Perez had by far the worst career; the other two were Derek Bell and Shawn Green. Perez's problem was that he swung at everything that didn't swing at him first. His batting title year was his third in the league, near the age at which most players reach their peak in the majors. Did manage to hit .327 in a part-time role for the Jays in 1996 - sure, it's an empty .327, but not many people do that. Won an R. Howard Webster Award in 1993 and 1995.
Tomas Perez
Buzz Factor: 4
Slick-fielding, confident infield prospect acquired in the Rule V draft. Good field, no hit, as they say. Has stuck around forever as a spare part. Hit .304 for the Phillies in 2001 in 135 at-bats - even a blind pig finds an acorn every once in a while. There's worse players in the majors, though.
Gino Petralli
Buzz Factor: 4
The Jays' best catching prospect during the Bobby Cox era, Petralli was blocked by the Whitt/Martinez combo. Was a two-team All-Star while with Syracuse. Purchased by Cleveland, and then released, early in 1984; signed by Texas, he went on to have a nine-year career with the Rangers. Great plate discipline - he would have been a Baseball Prospectus favourite, had BP existed back then.
Josh Phelps
Buzz Factor: 8
After comparing his numbers to Delgado's, it's clear now that Josh isn't going to be as good as Carlos, for two reasons. First, Phelps was older when he rang up his stats. Second, Delgado's stats have always been just a little bit better: Phelps usually hit in the .290 range in the minors, while Delgado was at about .315. Having said that, I can confidently predict that Phelps will be a quality major-league hitter. He just won't be as good as Delgado - and, if the Jays replace Carlos with Josh, they're going to have to find a way to make up that production elsewhere, or they will be doomed to an eternity of 86-win seasons. The difference between a team with players like Phelps and a team with players like Delgado is the difference between a team that almost makes it to the dance and one that actually dances.
Simon Pond
Buzz Factor: 2
His minor-league numbers bounce all over the place: he's hit as high as .340, but hit .150 in his second year in the Gulf Coast League. He's a great story, but his Syracuse numbers and his age show that he is conclusively no prospect. Still, he did burninate the Eastern League, didn't he?
Tom Quinlan
Buzz Factor: 3
Third baseman with middling power who hung around the Jays' high minor league system for a few years, hoping for a multi-vehicular accident involving all the guys who were better than him. It never happened; eventually, Sprague moved over to third, killing off what little there was of his career. Never really a serious prospect. Could play hockey - was a fourth-round pick of the Calgary Flames in 1986. Was on the roster for the 1992 ALCS.
Guillermo Quiroz
Buzz Factor: 8
You've got to give the Jays' scouting department a lot of credit for finding this guy and sticking with him, as his minor league numbers before this year weren't exactly anything to write home about. The clue, Watson, is his plate discipline: even when Q was very young, he was near or over the magic 1 walk per 10 at-bats level. Article I of the Gospel According to Beane: if you work the count, eventually they throw you pitches you can hit. Relatively high strikeout total may be a warning.
Dominic Rich
Buzz Factor: 3
At this point, his statistics scream "no prospect".
Alexis Rios
Buzz Factor: 9
You know as much about him as I do, of course: after underperforming for three years, and serving as the poster boy for Interbrew-era cheapness, Lexi went off like a nail bomb in 2003. Normally, I'd worry that this year was a bit of a fluke, but .352 is just too good. His walk total could be better, but it's not Robert Perez bad. Right now, I'd rank him one click below Shawn Green: his numbers are very similar to Green's, but his strikeouts are higher, and he's about one to two years behind Green in his development curve.
Jerry Schunk
Buzz Factor: 1
Got lots of playing time during spring training in 1991 when Alomar got hurt, and became a media darling because of his sound fundamental approach to the game and his politeness to sportswriters. Then, of course, the big kids showed up and started throwing those nasty breaking pitches. It's not his fault that he didn't have major-league ability - very few people do. I hope he kept the press clippings, and has had a good life.
Mike Sharperson
Buzz Factor: 5
Handed the second base job in 1987, but lost his confidence, and the job, shortly afterwards. Was traded for Juan Guzman, which assured him a place in Blue Jays history. Was named the Southern League's top prospect by Baseball America in 1984. Died young, alas.
Ron Shepherd
Buzz Factor: 4
One of two outfielders stuck behind Bell, Moseby and Barfield in the mid-1980's (Mitch Webster was the other). Probably would have had a full shot with another organization; superficially, at least, his minor-league numbers don't look worse than Barfield's.
Luis Sojo
Buzz Factor: 3
The Yankees' favourite mascot started his career here. One of many indistinguishable minor league infield prospects. Every team has a few of them. Apparently very well liked. Epy Guerrero signing; from the same home town as Luis Leal (Barquisimeto, Venezuela). Had two stints in Toronto, and about 11 in New York. Pure contact hitter: low strikeout totals, low walk totals, low power totals.
Ed Sprague
Buzz Factor: 8
His lack of position-specific skills was partly due to his being shuffled around in the minors: he went from third base to catcher and then back to third base, putting in some time at first along the way. Was promoted to Syracuse in mid-season at the age of 21, despite hitting only .219 at Dunedin. Highly touted as a prospect after having played on an NCAA World Series champion and the gold medal U.S. Olympic team in 1988. Has baseball bloodlines: his father, also named Ed, was a major league pitcher from 1968 to 1976. His 1991 hot streak was the first of a series of career-long hot starts. Had more than 1200 at-bats in a Syracuse uniform.
Matt "Big Guy" Stark
Buzz Factor: 6
Was nicknamed "Big Guy" because, apparently, that's what he called everybody. First round pick in 1983. I don't have complete stats for him, but I seem to recall that he got hurt: he had a good season in Knoxville in 1986, and was back there two years later, by which time he was off the 40-man roster. Rule V pick by Atlanta in 1989, but released. Briefly surfaced with the White Sox. The 1987 media guide lists the following about him: "Pet superstition - snakes." Hisssss!
Shannon Stewart
Buzz Factor: 8
Blocked by Otis Nixon, until he hit so well in Syracuse that the Jays had no choice but to make room for him. I've always believed that the extra time in the minors did him good - when he finally arrived, he never went into one of those confidence-threatening slumps which tend to feed on themselves (yo there, Kevin Cash). Was projected as a centre fielder, arm and all, but moved over when the Jays figured out that Cruz had better instincts at the position. Was selected as the best defensive outfielder in the South Atlantic League in 1994; so there!
William Suero
Buzz Factor: 3
I originally thought that he was one of the billions of Latin utility infielders that the Jays seemed to churn out a while back, but Suero was different: he was a multi-dimensional offensive talent at second base, instead of just another guy with a glove. However, he was old for his league, hit for a low average, and was trapped behind both Jeff Kent and Roberto Alomar. Shipped to Milwaukee in 1992 as part of the payment for Candy Maldonado, Suero sipped a couple of cups of coffee with the Brewers before hitting the road. He's dead now, by the way: he died in his home town of Santo Domingo in 1995.
Andy Thompson
Buzz Factor: 2
I have no memory of this guy. He was rated highly enough as a prospect to be given uniform number 15 in the 2001 media guide. (Non-prospects get assigned numbers like 64.) From his numbers, he looks like one of those dreaded tweenie players - hitters with a bit of power, a bit of average, a few walks now and then, and a bit of speed. In other words, a good player, but one with a low ceiling.
Ryan Thompson
Buzz Factor: 4
Best known as the other player who went to New York for David Cone. I seem to recall him being extremely confident, if not cocky, as a young prospect. If this was the case, his minor-league numbers show no reason for it. He was old for his leagues, and didn't hit for average. You've got to think that the Mets could have done better in the deal. Spent two-thirds of a year in Syracuse five years later, after being traded for minor-league perennial Jeff Manto.
Lou Thornton
Buzz Factor: 4
Loooouuuuu! Looouuuuuu! Usually cited as a textbook example of how spending a year as a Rule V draftee can ruin your career, but I don't see it. Thornton's plate discipline was poor, he didn't have a lot of power, and he didn't hit for a high average. I think he just lacked the goods. And, what the heck: he got to spend a year living the major league high life, and he even went to the post-season. By the way, whatever happened to Willie Canate?
Mitch Webster
Buzz Factor: 5
Trapped behind Bell, Moseby and Barfield, and eventually donated to the Expos. Had a couple of good years as their leadoff man, and spent several years as a spare part for the Dodgers and other teams. Wound up staying in the majors longer than any of the Jays' outfielders of the 1980's. Grew up in Larned, Kansas (where, presumably, he picked up his book larnin').
Vernon Wells
Buzz Factor: 9
Only Stieb and Moseby shot through the minors faster than V-Dub. There were doubts about him after he struggled in Syracuse in 2000 and 2001, but players asked to wait their turn often slump a bit. When looking at his 1999 numbers, you can see why he was promoted so quickly: he had a .946 OPS at Dunedin, a .919 OPS at Knoxville, and an .838 OPS at Syracuse. Has a chance to become the greatest Blue Jay hitter ever, and that's including Delgado.
Jayson Werth
Buzz Factor: 7
When you look at his minor-league numbers, his major-league struggles aren't all that surprising. His best minor-league season was his .285 at Tennessee, but lots of people have hit that well for the Smokies (compare his numbers to, say, Alex Gonzalez's). One of those outstanding athletes who can do everything except hit a baseball regularly: he's got some power, he draws walks, he runs well, and he's got a good throwing arm. What this means is that he's among the top 99% of the population instead of the top 99.5% - and that is the difference between million-dollar contracts and touring AAA ball. Young enough to take a step forward, so feel free to laugh at me if he burns down the buildings in 2004. The good plate discipline prior to 2003 means that J.P. will be willing to take a long look at him. Horribly miscast as a catcher.
Mark Whiten
Buzz Factor: 6
The Jays' farm system was so potent in the Gillick years that a guy like this, who went on to play parts of 11 years in the majors, was buried in the shuffle. Reasonably good plate discipline, which I'd forgotten about. From Pensacola, Florida, which is also Tom Cheek's home town.
Nigel Wilson
Buzz Factor: 6
Canadian outfield prospect. Picked up by Florida in the expansion draft, but didn't make the team. K/W ratio in Knoxville was bad, which was the clue, I guess. Was he a mistake hitter, who could only launch a ball if the pitcher threw it down the middle or hung a breaking ball?
DeWayne Wise
Buzz Factor: 4
Tennessee is a good place to hit - even this guy hit .297 there. Of course, it was his second time through the league. No bat, no prospect.
Kevin Witt
Buzz Factor: 7
Got everybody's attention when he whapped 30 home runs in class AA ball at the age of 21. Started his minor league career as a shortstop, but by 1997 had been relocated to first base; this isn't surprising, given that he's 6'4" and 210 pounds. And, as I suspect you know, first base in Toronto was already occupied by one C. Delgado, Esq., which left Witt rotting away in Syracuse. Wasn't quite a good enough hitter for his position. Is now the starting first baseman for the Detroit Tigers; sure, it's not exactly something that gives you bragging rights, but it is the major leagues. Looks like a surfer dude.
Chris Woodward
Buzz Factor: 3
Whatever you think of Woody and his misadventures at shortstop, you've got to give him credit for exceeding anyone's expectations of him. He was a 54th round draft pick in the 1994 draft, and was the 1438th player selected; they don't even have 54 rounds any more. In his first two years as a minor-leaguer, he basically sucked, hitting .232 at Medicine Hat and .224 at Hagerstown. The only sign that he was capable of better things was his walk totals - he was always above the magic 1 walk per 10 at-bats total that the Beanes of this world go on about. Oddly enough, he may have been too passive at the plate: his other offensive numbers started to go up about when his walks started to go down.
Eric Yelding
Buzz Factor: 4
Infield prospect trapped behind Fernandez/Lee/Liriano. Two big negatives: low walks, high strikeouts. In his only full season in the majors - with Houston in 1990 - Yelding stole 64 bases, and was caught 25 times, which means that his baserunning didn't make much of a difference one way or another. As the saying goes, you can't steal first.
Eddie Zosky
Buzz Factor: 7
Was virtually anointed the Jays' shortstop of the future in 1991; many baseball annuals actually listed him as the Jays' expected starter that year. When I look at Eddie Z's stats, I wonder: what were they thinking? Exactly why did they think that this guy was going to hit in the majors, especially in 1991? Never gave up trying: had three other trials in The Show, the last in 2000 with Houston. In 50 career major-league at-bats, Zosky walked once. Aha, say the sabermetricians - Aha! Did you know that he gave part of his signing bonus to Toronto's Hospital for Sick Children?
So what have I learned from all of this?
- This was a bigger project than I thought.
- High strikeout totals are a huge warning sign. If minor-league pitchers are punching a player out, major-league pitchers will eat him for lunch.
- Very low walk totals are an even more huge warning sign.
- Players are slightly older now than they were at the same level of the minors 20 years ago. Obviously, this is due to the influx of college players.
- Many players forced to repeat a level due to being blocked become discouraged, and their numbers slip.
- Lots and lots of people have hit .270 or better in Knoxville. Even Eddie Zosky.
Joe Lawrence
Buzz Factor: 3
Marginal infield prospect who was asked to convert to catcher in 2000. Always had tremendous plate discipline in the minors, and actually walked 105 times in Dunedin in 1998. He seems to be able to do everything but hit, alas. Originally signed with the draft pick the Jays received as compensation for losing Roberto Alomar.
| Year | Age | Team | AVG | AB | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | SO | SB | CS | Notes |
| 1999 | 22 | Knoxville-AA | .264 | 250 | 16 | 2 | 7 | 24 | 56 | 48 | 7 | 6 | good K/W ratio |
| 2000 | 23 | Tennessee-AA | .263 | 133 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 30 | 27 | 7 | 1 | poof! power-B-gone! |
| 2001 | 24 | Syracuse-AAA | .220 | 318 | 11 | 4 | 1 | 26 | 36 | 62 | 6 | 9 | ugh |
Manuel Lee
Buzz Factor: 6
Played several years in the majors before letting people know that he wished to be called "Manuel" instead of "Manny", which I guess says all you need to know about him (or, possibly, how he was treated). Actually hit better in the majors than his minor league numbers would indicate: except for a batting title in A-ball in 1984, Manuel never really hit much on the farm. Did you know that he grew up on the same street as Pedro Guerrero? The same street!
| Year | Age | Team | AVG | AB | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | SO | SB | CS | Notes |
| 1986 | 21 | Knoxville-AA | .272 | 158 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 11 | 20 | 29 | 8 | 4 | bring the outfielders in! |
| 1986 | 21 | Syracuse-AAA | .246 | 236 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 19 | 21 | 39 | 7 | 9 | |
| 1987 | 22 | Syracuse-AAA | .283 | 251 | 9 | 5 | 3 | 26 | 18 | 50 | 2 | 2 | obviously swinging harder |
Nelson Liriano
Buzz Factor: 5
I didn't realize that he ran that well: lots of triples, and a great stolen base percentage. His plate discipline wasn't bad, either. Had he been able to hit just a little better, he would have had a long career as a leadoff man. Epy Guerrero signing. From the 1990 media guide: "Was pursued by the New York Yankees prior to signing with Toronto." Moral: to be successful in the scouting business, you need to be able to run faster than your competitors.
| Year | Age | Team | AVG | AB | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | SO | SB | CS | Notes |
| 1986 | 22 | Knoxville-AA | .285 | 557 | 25 | 15 | 7 | 59 | 48 | 63 | 35 | 12 | |
| 1987 | 23 | Syracuse-AAA | .250 | 531 | 19 | 10 | 10 | 55 | 44 | 76 | 36 | 10 |
Felipe Lopez
Buzz Factor: 8
A lot of people have said a lot of things about Lopez's work ethic - probably justifiably - but no one has mentioned his high strikeout rates, or his low batting averages in the minors. From these numbers, it seems likely that Lopez just has too many holes in his swing to succeed at the major league level, and all the attitude in the world can't fix that. He was younger than most players at his level, though, so he could still improve. Struck out 157 times in class-A ball in 1999.
| Year | Age | Team | AVG | AB | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | SO | SB | CS | Notes |
| 2000 | 20 | Tennessee-AA | .257 | 463 | 18 | 4 | 9 | 41 | 31 | 110 | 12 | 11 | |
| 2001 | 21 | Tennessee-AA | .222 | 72 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 23 | 4 | 4 | |
| 2001 | 21 | Syracuse-AAA | .279 | 358 | 19 | 7 | 16 | 44 | 30 | 94 | 13 | 5 |
Luis Lopez
Buzz Factor: 4
Long-time minor-leaguer who couldn't hit well enough to play first in the majors, or field well enough to play third in the majors (as one embarrassing trial conclusively proved). Baseball Prospectus calls this "Prospect's Disease," and it's invariably fatal. Won an R. Howard Webster Award in 1999 and 2001. His stats are not listed in the Jays' 2002 media guide, despite his winning the award.
| Year | Age | Team | AVG | AB | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | SO | SB | CS | Notes |
| 1998 | 24 | Knoxville-AA | .313 | 450 | 27 | 1 | 15 | 85 | 58 | 55 | 0 | 2 | 18 GIDP |
| 1999 | 25 | Syracuse-AAA | .322 | 531 | 35 | 2 | 4 | 69 | 40 | 58 | 1 | 0 | 22 GIDP |
| 2000 | 26 | Syracuse-AAA | .328 | 491 | 27 | 1 | 7 | 79 | 48 | 33 | 3 | 1 | low K total! |
Fred Manrique
Buzz Factor: 3
Decent middle infield prospect, with some pop in his bat, but trapped behind Tony Fernandez. Was essentially donated to the Expos in 1985, and spent parts of the next eight seasons bouncing between the minors and six major-league teams. Low walk totals basically did him in. The youngest of 10 children.
| Year | Age | Team | AVG | AB | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | SO | SB | CS | Notes |
| 1981 | 19 | Knoxville-AA | .279 | 469 | 15 | 6 | 5 | 42 | 21 | 68 | 7 | 7 | |
| 1982 | 20 | Syracuse-AAA | .251 | 362 | 9 | 2 | 4 | 37 | 17 | 45 | 5 | 3 | |
| 1983 | 21 | Syracuse-AAA | .268 | 485 | 22 | 8 | 10 | 50 | 22 | 74 | 3 | 8 | manager loves hit and run? |
Domingo Martinez
Buzz Factor: 3
Perennial first-base sorta-prospect, who spent eternity in the Jays' high minor leagues waiting for The Call That Never Came. Was tried at catcher in 1989. Was a September callup in both 1992 and 1993 - I wonder if he got any World Series rings? Was traded to the White Sox in 1994 for Mike Huff.
| Year | Age | Team | AVG | AB | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | SO | SB | CS | Notes |
| 1988 | 20 | Knoxville-AA | .264 | 516 | 25 | 2 | 13 | 70 | 40 | 88 | 2 | 7 | |
| 1989 | 21 | Knoxville-AA | .246 | 415 | 19 | 2 | 10 | 53 | 42 | 82 | 2 | 2 | |
| 1990 | 22 | Knoxville-AA | .257 | 463 | 20 | 3 | 17 | 66 | 51 | 81 | 2 | 4 | |
| 1991 | 23 | Syracuse-AAA | .313 | 467 | 16 | 2 | 17 | 83 | 41 | 107 | 6 | 4 | |
| 1992 | 24 | Syracuse-AAA | .274 | 438 | 22 | 0 | 21 | 62 | 33 | 95 | 6 | 0 |
Sandy Martinez
Buzz Factor: 4
Praised for his defensive skills at a time when the Jays had no prospects to speak of. There was no reason to expect him ever to hit in the majors, and he didn't. Cruddy plate discipline.
| Year | Age | Team | AVG | AB | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | SO | SB | CS | Notes |
| 1995 | 22 | Knoxville-AA | .229 | 144 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 22 | 6 | 34 | 0 | 1 | midseason callup |
Fred McGriff
Buzz Factor: 8
Never put up a monster season in any particular league, as he either switched levels mid-season or got hurt. Hit 28 home runs in 1983 and 22 home runs in 1984, so everybody could see him coming. Injuries delayed his development a year or two. Was seemingly born with good plate discipline: his walk totals were good all the way through his minor-league career. Never hit for a high average in the high minors, probably because he was young for his level. Hit only .148 in his first season as a pro (in 1981, for the Yankees' Gulf Coast League farm club).
| Year | Age | Team | AVG | AB | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | SO | SB | CS | Notes |
| 1984 | 20 | Knoxville-AA | .249 | 189 | 13 | 2 | 9 | 25 | 29 | 55 | 0 | 2 | |
| 1984 | 20 | Syracuse-AAA | .235 | 238 | 10 | 1 | 13 | 28 | 26 | 89 | 0 | 1 | |
| 1985 | 21 | Syracuse-AAA | .227 | 176 | 8 | 2 | 5 | 20 | 23 | 53 | 0 | 0 | missed two months |
| 1986 | 22 | Syracuse-AAA | .259 | 468 | 23 | 4 | 19 | 74 | 83 | 119 | 0 | 3 |
Lloyd Moseby
Buzz Factor: 9
If you want to think of what would have happened to Vernon Wells had he been promoted to the majors right away, look at Moseby. The Shaker rocketed through the minors even faster than V-Dub did, hitting .304 in rookie ball in 1978 and .332 in Dunedin in 1979. He went 2 for 4 with a double in his Jays debut in 1980, went 3 for 5 with a home run in his next start, and hit safely in his first four games. Was cut from his first Little League team.
| Year | Age | Team | AVG | AB | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | SO | SB | CS | Notes |
| 1980 | 19 | Syracuse-AAA | .322 | 146 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 19 | 17 | 20 | 9 | 2 |
Pedro Munoz
Buzz Factor: 5
Another Epy Guerrero signing, Munoz was sent to Minnesota, along with Nelson Liriano, for John Candelaria. This is possibly the worst stretch drive trade the Jays ever made. Munoz had some serviceable seasons with the Twins, but never really gained control of the strike zone at the major league level. Proof of the fleeting nature of a baseball career: one year after hitting .301 with 18 home runs for the Twins in 1995, he was out of the major leagues for good. No wonder players seem "greedy" in contract negotiations - each contract may be their last.
| Year | Age | Team | AVG | AB | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | SO | SB | CS | Notes |
| 1989 | 20 | Knoxville-AA | .267 | 442 | 15 | 4 | 19 | 65 | 20 | 85 | 10 | 4 | only 46 games in the outfield |
Greg Myers
Buzz Factor: 7
Here's something I didn't know about Myers until I looked him up in this year's media guide: he's gotten hurt a lot. He was injured in 1988, 1989, 1990, 1992, 1994, 1995 (three times), 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, and 2001. Perhaps his latest renaissance is just due to his finally being healthy for a change. His recent power surge isn't that surprising when you look at his minor league numbers: he hit 20 home runs in A-ball in 1986, and was crushing the ball in 1988 before, yes, getting hurt. Crash looks so much older in his 2003 media guide pic than he did in his 1991 pic. Mind you, we all looked a lot younger twelve years ago, didn't we?
| Year | Age | Team | AVG | AB | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | SO | SB | CS | Notes |
| 1987 | 21 | Syracuse-AAA | .246 | 342 | 19 | 1 | 10 | 47 | 22 | 46 | 3 | 3 | September callup |
| 1988 | 22 | Syracuse-AAA | .283 | 120 | 7 | 1 | 7 | 21 | 8 | 24 | 1 | 0 | torn rotator cuff June 19 |
| 1989 | 23 | Knoxville-AA | .333 | 90 | 10 | 0 | 5 | 19 | 3 | 16 | 1 | 0 | swinging at everything |
| 1989 | 23 | Syracuse-AAA | .270 | 89 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 4 | 9 | 0 | 0 | low BB, low K |
Greg O'Halloran
Buzz Factor: 3
From Mississauga (poor man). One step behind Randy Knorr in the organization, and put up roughly the same level of performance - i.e., not quite enough. It must be tough to get close to the big money but not all the way there. Had a cup of coffee with Florida in 1994, so at least he's got his name in the Baseball Encyclopedia.
| Year | Age | Team | AVG | AB | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | SO | SB | CS | Notes |
| 1991 | 23 | Knoxville-AA | .254 | 350 | 13 | 3 | 8 | 53 | 27 | 46 | 11 | 6 | |
| 1992 | 24 | Knoxville-AA | .271 | 409 | 20 | 5 | 2 | 34 | 31 | 64 | 7 | 7 |
John Olerud
Buzz Factor: 10
Hailed as Superman brought to life when first signed: He can hit! He can pitch! He's recovered from a life-threatening ailment! He can fly if he wants to! What you may have forgotten: by 1991, the papers were calling for him to be sent down for seasoning in favour of Ed Sprague. If my memory serves me correctly, some writers of the time saw it as practically a moral issue, implying that Big John needed the sort of character-building experience that only crappy minor league ballparks can provide. Obviously, the writers were wrong. John's father, also named John, was a minor-league catcher, and is mentioned in Jim Bouton's Ball Four.
| Year | Age | Team | AVG | AB | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | SO | SB | CS | Notes |
Jeff Patzke
Buzz Factor: 2
The Baseball Prospectus people just loved this guy because of his high walk totals. At one point, BP claimed that the Jays could make the postseason if they just put Patzke at second and Evans at third. Erm, no. I seem to recall reading that Patzke wasn't good enough defensively to play second, and he didn't hit well enough to play elsewhere. When he was demoted out of the Jays' system, the Jays mailing list found out about it before his mother did. (I saw him play once at Altoona - he looked slow but, indeed, patient.)
| Year | Age | Team | AVG | AB | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | SO | SB | CS | Notes |
| 1996 | 23 | Knoxville-AA | .303 | 429 | 31 | 4 | 4 | 66 | 80 | 103 | 6 | 5 | |
| 1997 | 24 | Syracuse-AAA | .285 | 316 | 25 | 2 | 2 | 29 | 51 | 66 | 0 | 3 |
Robert Perez
Buzz Factor: 4
Of the three men who won batting titles at Syracuse, Perez had by far the worst career; the other two were Derek Bell and Shawn Green. Perez's problem was that he swung at everything that didn't swing at him first. His batting title year was his third in the league, near the age at which most players reach their peak in the majors. Did manage to hit .327 in a part-time role for the Jays in 1996 - sure, it's an empty .327, but not many people do that. Won an R. Howard Webster Award in 1993 and 1995.
| Year | Age | Team | AVG | AB | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | SO | SB | CS | Notes |
| 1992 | 23 | Knoxville-AA | .260 | 526 | 24 | 5 | 9 | 59 | 13 | 87 | 11 | 10 | |
| 1993 | 24 | Syracuse-AAA | .294 | 524 | 26 | 10 | 12 | 64 | 24 | 65 | 13 | 15 | stop running, Robert! |
| 1994 | 25 | Syracuse-AAA | .304 | 510 | 28 | 3 | 10 | 65 | 27 | 76 | 4 | 7 | consistent |
| 1995 | 26 | Syracuse-AAA | .343 | 502 | 38 | 6 | 9 | 66 | 13 | 60 | 7 | 5 | why walk when you can hit? |
Tomas Perez
Buzz Factor: 4
Slick-fielding, confident infield prospect acquired in the Rule V draft. Good field, no hit, as they say. Has stuck around forever as a spare part. Hit .304 for the Phillies in 2001 in 135 at-bats - even a blind pig finds an acorn every once in a while. There's worse players in the majors, though.
| Year | Age | Team | AVG | AB | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | SO | SB | CS | Notes |
| 1996 | 22 | Syracuse-AAA | .276 | 123 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 7 | 19 | 8 | 1 | midseason callup |
| 1997 | 23 | Syracuse-AAA | .224 | 303 | 13 | 0 | 1 | 20 | 37 | 67 | 3 | 4 | good BB's; 14 bunts; callup |
Gino Petralli
Buzz Factor: 4
The Jays' best catching prospect during the Bobby Cox era, Petralli was blocked by the Whitt/Martinez combo. Was a two-team All-Star while with Syracuse. Purchased by Cleveland, and then released, early in 1984; signed by Texas, he went on to have a nine-year career with the Rangers. Great plate discipline - he would have been a Baseball Prospectus favourite, had BP existed back then.
| Year | Age | Team | AVG | AB | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | SO | SB | CS | Notes |
| 1979 | 19 | Syracuse-AAA | .232 | 56 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 2 | 11 | 0 | 0 | too soon |
| 1980 | 20 | Knoxville-AA | .285 | 382 | 20 | 2 | 3 | 38 | 54 | 30 | 0 | 1 | |
| 1981 | 21 | Syracuse-AAA | .265 | 151 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 16 | 11 | 1 | 1 | out three months with injuries |
| 1982 | 22 | Syracuse-AAA | .289 | 395 | 19 | 3 | 9 | 58 | 73 | 54 | 2 | 2 | walks!!! |
| 1983 | 23 | Syracuse-AAA | .245 | 323 | 9 | 2 | 3 | 40 | 54 | 37 | 0 | 1 | discouraged |
Josh Phelps
Buzz Factor: 8
After comparing his numbers to Delgado's, it's clear now that Josh isn't going to be as good as Carlos, for two reasons. First, Phelps was older when he rang up his stats. Second, Delgado's stats have always been just a little bit better: Phelps usually hit in the .290 range in the minors, while Delgado was at about .315. Having said that, I can confidently predict that Phelps will be a quality major-league hitter. He just won't be as good as Delgado - and, if the Jays replace Carlos with Josh, they're going to have to find a way to make up that production elsewhere, or they will be doomed to an eternity of 86-win seasons. The difference between a team with players like Phelps and a team with players like Delgado is the difference between a team that almost makes it to the dance and one that actually dances.
| Year | Age | Team | AVG | AB | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | SO | SB | CS | Notes |
| 2000 | 22 | Tennessee-AA | .228 | 184 | 9 | 1 | 9 | 28 | 15 | 66 | 1 | 0 | needed to adjust |
| 2001 | 23 | Tennessee-AA | .292 | 486 | 36 | 1 | 31 | 97 | 80 | 127 | 3 | 3 | adjusted! 17 HBP |
| 2002 | 24 | Syracuse-AAA | .292 | 257 | 20 | 1 | 24 | 64 | 32 | 83 | 0 | 0 | all or nothing, mostly all |
Simon Pond
Buzz Factor: 2
His minor-league numbers bounce all over the place: he's hit as high as .340, but hit .150 in his second year in the Gulf Coast League. He's a great story, but his Syracuse numbers and his age show that he is conclusively no prospect. Still, he did burninate the Eastern League, didn't he?
| Year | Age | Team | AVG | AB | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | SO | SB | CS | Notes |
| 2003 | 26 | NewHaven-AA | .338 | 228 | 17 | 1 | 7 | 49 | 39 | 33 | 1 | 1 | |
| 2003 | 26 | Syracuse-AAA | .306 | 248 | 21 | 1 | 5 | 36 | 16 | 42 | 1 | 1 |
Tom Quinlan
Buzz Factor: 3
Third baseman with middling power who hung around the Jays' high minor league system for a few years, hoping for a multi-vehicular accident involving all the guys who were better than him. It never happened; eventually, Sprague moved over to third, killing off what little there was of his career. Never really a serious prospect. Could play hockey - was a fourth-round pick of the Calgary Flames in 1986. Was on the roster for the 1992 ALCS.
| Year | Age | Team | AVG | AB | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | SO | SB | CS | Notes |
| 1988 | 20 | Knoxville-AA | .218 | 326 | 18 | 1 | 8 | 47 | 35 | 99 | 4 | 9 | yuck |
| 1989 | 21 | Knoxville-AA | .210 | 452 | 21 | 3 | 16 | 57 | 41 | 118 | 6 | 4 | yuck with a little power |
| 1990 | 22 | Knoxville-AA | .258 | 481 | 24 | 6 | 15 | 51 | 49 | 157 | 8 | 9 | 14 HBP, 7 SH; RHW winner |
| 1991 | 23 | Syracuse-AAA | .240 | 466 | 24 | 6 | 10 | 49 | 72 | 163 | 9 | 4 | whiffo! |
| 1992 | 24 | Syracuse-AAA | .215 | 349 | 17 | 1 | 6 | 36 | 43 | 112 | 1 | 3 | they've found a weakness |
Guillermo Quiroz
Buzz Factor: 8
You've got to give the Jays' scouting department a lot of credit for finding this guy and sticking with him, as his minor league numbers before this year weren't exactly anything to write home about. The clue, Watson, is his plate discipline: even when Q was very young, he was near or over the magic 1 walk per 10 at-bats level. Article I of the Gospel According to Beane: if you work the count, eventually they throw you pitches you can hit. Relatively high strikeout total may be a warning.
| Year | Age | Team | AVG | AB | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | SO | SB | CS | Notes |
| 2003 | 21 | NewHaven-AA | .282 | 369 | 27 | 0 | 20 | 79 | 45 | 83 | 0 | 0 |
Dominic Rich
Buzz Factor: 3
At this point, his statistics scream "no prospect".
| Year | Age | Team | AVG | AB | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | SO | SB | CS | Notes |
| 2002 | 22 | Tennessee-AA | .273 | 132 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 14 | 18 | 23 | 2 | 4 | |
| 2003 | 23 | NewHaven-AA | .259 | 390 | 22 | 2 | 3 | 46 | 30 | 48 | 1 | 4 | 16 GIDP |
Alexis Rios
Buzz Factor: 9
You know as much about him as I do, of course: after underperforming for three years, and serving as the poster boy for Interbrew-era cheapness, Lexi went off like a nail bomb in 2003. Normally, I'd worry that this year was a bit of a fluke, but .352 is just too good. His walk total could be better, but it's not Robert Perez bad. Right now, I'd rank him one click below Shawn Green: his numbers are very similar to Green's, but his strikeouts are higher, and he's about one to two years behind Green in his development curve.
| Year | Age | Team | AVG | AB | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | SO | SB | CS | Notes |
| 2003 | 22 | NewHaven-AA | .352 | 514 | 32 | 11 | 11 | 82 | 39 | 85 | 11 | 3 | 22 GIDP |
Jerry Schunk
Buzz Factor: 1
Got lots of playing time during spring training in 1991 when Alomar got hurt, and became a media darling because of his sound fundamental approach to the game and his politeness to sportswriters. Then, of course, the big kids showed up and started throwing those nasty breaking pitches. It's not his fault that he didn't have major-league ability - very few people do. I hope he kept the press clippings, and has had a good life.
| Year | Age | Team | AVG | AB | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | SO | SB | CS | Notes |
| 1989 | 23 | Knoxville-AA | .241 | 270 | 13 | 4 | 4 | 31 | 17 | 19 | 6 | 3 | |
| 1990 | 24 | Knoxville-AA | .288 | 274 | 13 | 1 | 3 | 31 | 9 | 25 | 8 | 7 | 14 sac bunts here... |
| 1990 | 24 | Syracuse-AAA | .240 | 100 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 3 | 10 | 1 | 2 | ...but only 1 SH here |
Mike Sharperson
Buzz Factor: 5
Handed the second base job in 1987, but lost his confidence, and the job, shortly afterwards. Was traded for Juan Guzman, which assured him a place in Blue Jays history. Was named the Southern League's top prospect by Baseball America in 1984. Died young, alas.
| Year | Age | Team | AVG | AB | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | SO | SB | CS | Notes |
| 1984 | 22 | Knoxville-AA | .304 | 542 | 25 | 7 | 4 | 48 | 48 | 66 | 20 | 13 | RHW winner |
| 1985 | 23 | Syracuse-AAA | .289 | 535 | 19 | 7 | 1 | 59 | 71 | 75 | 14 | 15 | keep walking, stop running! |
| 1986 | 24 | Syracuse-AAA | .289 | 519 | 18 | 9 | 4 | 45 | 69 | 67 | 17 | 13 | eerily consistent; RHW winner |
Ron Shepherd
Buzz Factor: 4
One of two outfielders stuck behind Bell, Moseby and Barfield in the mid-1980's (Mitch Webster was the other). Probably would have had a full shot with another organization; superficially, at least, his minor-league numbers don't look worse than Barfield's.
| Year | Age | Team | AVG | AB | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | SO | SB | CS | Notes |
| 1982 | 21 | Knoxville-AA | .247 | 482 | 19 | 8 | 15 | 65 | 40 | 125 | 31 | 8 | |
| 1983 | 22 | Syracuse-AAA | .272 | 405 | 20 | 3 | 13 | 62 | 28 | 109 | 12 | 8 | |
| 1984 | 23 | Syracuse-AAA | .220 | 363 | 16 | 3 | 12 | 50 | 41 | 99 | 6 | 3 | discouraged, probably |
| 1985 | 24 | Syracuse-AAA | .308 | 133 | 12 | 2 | 2 | 16 | 11 | 28 | 1 | 3 | |
| 1986 | 25 | Syracuse-AAA | .211 | 128 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 17 | 11 | 24 | 3 | 4 | called up anyway |
Luis Sojo
Buzz Factor: 3
The Yankees' favourite mascot started his career here. One of many indistinguishable minor league infield prospects. Every team has a few of them. Apparently very well liked. Epy Guerrero signing; from the same home town as Luis Leal (Barquisimeto, Venezuela). Had two stints in Toronto, and about 11 in New York. Pure contact hitter: low strikeout totals, low walk totals, low power totals.
| Year | Age | Team | AVG | AB | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | SO | SB | CS | Notes |
| 1989 | 23 | Syracuse-AAA | .276 | 482 | 20 | 5 | 3 | 54 | 21 | 42 | 9 | 14 | stay on first, for chrissake |
| 1990 | 24 | Syracuse-AAA | .296 | 297 | 12 | 3 | 6 | 25 | 14 | 23 | 10 | -- | midseason callup |
Ed Sprague
Buzz Factor: 8
His lack of position-specific skills was partly due to his being shuffled around in the minors: he went from third base to catcher and then back to third base, putting in some time at first along the way. Was promoted to Syracuse in mid-season at the age of 21, despite hitting only .219 at Dunedin. Highly touted as a prospect after having played on an NCAA World Series champion and the gold medal U.S. Olympic team in 1988. Has baseball bloodlines: his father, also named Ed, was a major league pitcher from 1968 to 1976. His 1991 hot streak was the first of a series of career-long hot starts. Had more than 1200 at-bats in a Syracuse uniform.
| Year | Age | Team | AVG | AB | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | SO | SB | CS | Notes |
| 1989 | 21 | Syracuse-AAA | .208 | 288 | 14 | 1 | 5 | 33 | 18 | 73 | 0 | 0 | slow, even then |
| 1990 | 22 | Syracuse-AAA | .239 | 519 | 23 | 5 | 20 | 75 | 31 | 100 | 4 | 2 | |
| 1991 | 23 | Syracuse-AAA | .364 | 88 | 8 | 0 | 5 | 25 | 10 | 21 | 2 | 3 | lots of low fastballs, I guess |
| 1992 | 24 | Syracuse-AAA | .276 | 369 | 18 | 2 | 16 | 50 | 43 | 73 | 0 | 2 | yoo hoo! over here! |
Matt "Big Guy" Stark
Buzz Factor: 6
Was nicknamed "Big Guy" because, apparently, that's what he called everybody. First round pick in 1983. I don't have complete stats for him, but I seem to recall that he got hurt: he had a good season in Knoxville in 1986, and was back there two years later, by which time he was off the 40-man roster. Rule V pick by Atlanta in 1989, but released. Briefly surfaced with the White Sox. The 1987 media guide lists the following about him: "Pet superstition - snakes." Hisssss!
| Year | Age | Team | AVG | AB | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | SO | SB | CS | Notes |
| 1985 | 20 | Knoxville-AA | .245 | 53 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1986 | 21 | Knoxville-AA | .295 | 424 | 21 | 0 | 17 | 72 | 47 | 48 | 1 | 1 | |
| 1987 | ?? | ||||||||||||
| 1988 | 23 | Knoxville-AA | .266 | 334 | 17 | 1 | 11 | 54 | 45 | 28 | 1 | - | low K rate |
Shannon Stewart
Buzz Factor: 8
Blocked by Otis Nixon, until he hit so well in Syracuse that the Jays had no choice but to make room for him. I've always believed that the extra time in the minors did him good - when he finally arrived, he never went into one of those confidence-threatening slumps which tend to feed on themselves (yo there, Kevin Cash). Was projected as a centre fielder, arm and all, but moved over when the Jays figured out that Cruz had better instincts at the position. Was selected as the best defensive outfielder in the South Atlantic League in 1994; so there!
| Year | Age | Team | AVG | AB | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | SO | SB | CS | Notes |
| 1995 | 21 | Knoxville-AA | .287 | 498 | 24 | 6 | 5 | 55 | 89 | 61 | 42 | 16 | 13 GIDP; RHW winner |
| 1996 | 22 | Syracuse-AAA | .298 | 420 | 26 | 8 | 6 | 42 | 54 | 61 | 35 | 8 | .377 OBP; RHW winner again |
| 1997 | 23 | Syracuse-AAA | .346 | 208 | 13 | 1 | 5 | 24 | 36 | 26 | 9 | 6 | is the phone ringing yet? |
William Suero
Buzz Factor: 3
I originally thought that he was one of the billions of Latin utility infielders that the Jays seemed to churn out a while back, but Suero was different: he was a multi-dimensional offensive talent at second base, instead of just another guy with a glove. However, he was old for his league, hit for a low average, and was trapped behind both Jeff Kent and Roberto Alomar. Shipped to Milwaukee in 1992 as part of the payment for Candy Maldonado, Suero sipped a couple of cups of coffee with the Brewers before hitting the road. He's dead now, by the way: he died in his home town of Santo Domingo in 1995.
Andy Thompson
Buzz Factor: 2
I have no memory of this guy. He was rated highly enough as a prospect to be given uniform number 15 in the 2001 media guide. (Non-prospects get assigned numbers like 64.) From his numbers, he looks like one of those dreaded tweenie players - hitters with a bit of power, a bit of average, a few walks now and then, and a bit of speed. In other words, a good player, but one with a low ceiling.
Ryan Thompson
Buzz Factor: 4
Best known as the other player who went to New York for David Cone. I seem to recall him being extremely confident, if not cocky, as a young prospect. If this was the case, his minor-league numbers show no reason for it. He was old for his leagues, and didn't hit for average. You've got to think that the Mets could have done better in the deal. Spent two-thirds of a year in Syracuse five years later, after being traded for minor-league perennial Jeff Manto.
Lou Thornton
Buzz Factor: 4
Loooouuuuu! Looouuuuuu! Usually cited as a textbook example of how spending a year as a Rule V draftee can ruin your career, but I don't see it. Thornton's plate discipline was poor, he didn't have a lot of power, and he didn't hit for a high average. I think he just lacked the goods. And, what the heck: he got to spend a year living the major league high life, and he even went to the post-season. By the way, whatever happened to Willie Canate?
Mitch Webster
Buzz Factor: 5
Trapped behind Bell, Moseby and Barfield, and eventually donated to the Expos. Had a couple of good years as their leadoff man, and spent several years as a spare part for the Dodgers and other teams. Wound up staying in the majors longer than any of the Jays' outfielders of the 1980's. Grew up in Larned, Kansas (where, presumably, he picked up his book larnin').
Vernon Wells
Buzz Factor: 9
Only Stieb and Moseby shot through the minors faster than V-Dub. There were doubts about him after he struggled in Syracuse in 2000 and 2001, but players asked to wait their turn often slump a bit. When looking at his 1999 numbers, you can see why he was promoted so quickly: he had a .946 OPS at Dunedin, a .919 OPS at Knoxville, and an .838 OPS at Syracuse. Has a chance to become the greatest Blue Jay hitter ever, and that's including Delgado.
Jayson Werth
Buzz Factor: 7
When you look at his minor-league numbers, his major-league struggles aren't all that surprising. His best minor-league season was his .285 at Tennessee, but lots of people have hit that well for the Smokies (compare his numbers to, say, Alex Gonzalez's). One of those outstanding athletes who can do everything except hit a baseball regularly: he's got some power, he draws walks, he runs well, and he's got a good throwing arm. What this means is that he's among the top 99% of the population instead of the top 99.5% - and that is the difference between million-dollar contracts and touring AAA ball. Young enough to take a step forward, so feel free to laugh at me if he burns down the buildings in 2004. The good plate discipline prior to 2003 means that J.P. will be willing to take a long look at him. Horribly miscast as a catcher.
Mark Whiten
Buzz Factor: 6
The Jays' farm system was so potent in the Gillick years that a guy like this, who went on to play parts of 11 years in the majors, was buried in the shuffle. Reasonably good plate discipline, which I'd forgotten about. From Pensacola, Florida, which is also Tom Cheek's home town.
Nigel Wilson
Buzz Factor: 6
Canadian outfield prospect. Picked up by Florida in the expansion draft, but didn't make the team. K/W ratio in Knoxville was bad, which was the clue, I guess. Was he a mistake hitter, who could only launch a ball if the pitcher threw it down the middle or hung a breaking ball?
DeWayne Wise
Buzz Factor: 4
Tennessee is a good place to hit - even this guy hit .297 there. Of course, it was his second time through the league. No bat, no prospect.
Kevin Witt
Buzz Factor: 7
Got everybody's attention when he whapped 30 home runs in class AA ball at the age of 21. Started his minor league career as a shortstop, but by 1997 had been relocated to first base; this isn't surprising, given that he's 6'4" and 210 pounds. And, as I suspect you know, first base in Toronto was already occupied by one C. Delgado, Esq., which left Witt rotting away in Syracuse. Wasn't quite a good enough hitter for his position. Is now the starting first baseman for the Detroit Tigers; sure, it's not exactly something that gives you bragging rights, but it is the major leagues. Looks like a surfer dude.
Chris Woodward
Buzz Factor: 3
Whatever you think of Woody and his misadventures at shortstop, you've got to give him credit for exceeding anyone's expectations of him. He was a 54th round draft pick in the 1994 draft, and was the 1438th player selected; they don't even have 54 rounds any more. In his first two years as a minor-leaguer, he basically sucked, hitting .232 at Medicine Hat and .224 at Hagerstown. The only sign that he was capable of better things was his walk totals - he was always above the magic 1 walk per 10 at-bats total that the Beanes of this world go on about. Oddly enough, he may have been too passive at the plate: his other offensive numbers started to go up about when his walks started to go down.
Eric Yelding
Buzz Factor: 4
Infield prospect trapped behind Fernandez/Lee/Liriano. Two big negatives: low walks, high strikeouts. In his only full season in the majors - with Houston in 1990 - Yelding stole 64 bases, and was caught 25 times, which means that his baserunning didn't make much of a difference one way or another. As the saying goes, you can't steal first.
Eddie Zosky
Buzz Factor: 7
Was virtually anointed the Jays' shortstop of the future in 1991; many baseball annuals actually listed him as the Jays' expected starter that year. When I look at Eddie Z's stats, I wonder: what were they thinking? Exactly why did they think that this guy was going to hit in the majors, especially in 1991? Never gave up trying: had three other trials in The Show, the last in 2000 with Houston. In 50 career major-league at-bats, Zosky walked once. Aha, say the sabermetricians - Aha! Did you know that he gave part of his signing bonus to Toronto's Hospital for Sick Children?
So what have I learned from all of this?
- This was a bigger project than I thought.
- High strikeout totals are a huge warning sign. If minor-league pitchers are punching a player out, major-league pitchers will eat him for lunch.
- Very low walk totals are an even more huge warning sign.
- Players are slightly older now than they were at the same level of the minors 20 years ago. Obviously, this is due to the influx of college players.
- Many players forced to repeat a level due to being blocked become discouraged, and their numbers slip.
- Lots and lots of people have hit .270 or better in Knoxville. Even Eddie Zosky.
