I called them the New Haven Juggernauts earlier this year, when they were tearing up the Eastern League with standout batting performances. They cooled off slightly in the second half (see, Simon Pond really was the glue that held that team together) and exited the playoffs early, but the 2003 Ravens are a team that Jays fans may be talking about years from now because of the talent it contained. No fewer than five first-round draft picks were on the squad at one time or another, as were all five of the Jays’ consensus top prospects (Rios, Quiroz, McGowan, Gross, Bush). The Ravens were so stacked that this review, which runs more than 4,500 words and features 13 players, still doesn’t cover everyone of interest on the roster. I say again, if there are players about whom I haven’t written in these reports, please let me know and I’ll include them in a minor-league wrap-up article next week.
Two other thoughts. First, I’ve read the heated discussion in the Dunedin thread about Russ Adams, and although it made for compelling reading, it didn’t change my opinion of the player; my review of Adams was largely written beforehand and wasn’t swayed by the strong arguments against it. I will observe that Adams is a focal point of some dissension among the ranks of Bauxites, and perhaps the Blue Jays in general, about the Ricciardi regime. Most of the authors and posters at this site approve of JP’s plan and methods and think that they’ll result in playoff-calibre teams within a couple of years; but even within that collective, there are degrees of skepticism about the wisdom of certain moves and the potential of some players. This is great, of course, because it makes for terrific baseball debates on these pages and increases everyone’s understanding of and insight into the Jays’ evolution (and of course, the last word any site like this wants to hear is "groupthink"). Some of us will be right and others of us will be wrong, and I trust that we’ll all be in one camp or the other over time.
Second, this is my last installment of the 2003 Farm Reports; tomorrow, John Neary takes over and guides us through a review of the Syracuse Skychiefs, which I’m very much looking forward to reading. Thanks for all your feedback and for the many compliments; this is just a hobby for me, in between real life, but I get a kick out of it and I’m glad it provides some entertainment and a little insight into the Blue Jays’ minor-league system. Thanks for reading!
Russ Adams, SS, 23
New Haven 2003
271 AB, .277/.349/.387, 42 R, 19 2B, 4 3B, 4 HR, 26 RBI, 30 BB, 37 K, 8 SB, 1 CS
Dunedin 2003
258 AB, .279/.380/.388, 50 R, 9 2B, 5 3B, 3 HR, 16 RBI, 38 BB, 27 K, 9 SB, 2 CS
I think there's a misperception in some quarters that Russ Adams had a disappointing year. To the contrary, I think he fulfilled most of the expectations placed on him in what was (let’s not forget) his first full pro season, and exceeded others. He knocked out 44 extra-base hits over two levels, coming on particularly strong once he escaped the power-deflating effects of the Florida State League. He scored 92 runs (50 of them with offensively challenged Dunedin), again walked more times than he struck out (68/64), and stole bases at an 85% success clip (17/20). His defensive play settled down after a rough start (his lapses tend to occur more on throws than on fielding, perhaps reflecting his limited arm strength, and his range is very good), and he continued to hold his own at shortstop despite the general belief he’s destined for second base. He’s only been swinging a wooden bat for a year and a half, and already is doing well at Double-A Ball. Simply put, he’s continued to perform well in all the categories the Blue Jays need him to.
The thing about Adams, more than for almost any other Toronto prospect, is that the Dreaded Intangibles really do matter. All the smarts and instincts that brought unsolicited praise from Mike Bordick and others in spring training should only have been improving all this time. From all accounts, he understands baseball in ways that don’t yet show up in a stat column, but eventually will, because he displays a great capacity to absorb the nuances of the game. Most young players suffer a certain “stat devaluation” as they rise through the minors: 25 homers at AA often become 20 at AAA and maybe 15 in the majors; a 2.57 ERA in AA rises to 3.22 in AAA and into the low 4.00s, often, in the majors. But Adams looks like a guy who’s going to post pretty much the same basic numbers – .280/.360/(and soon enough).430 – at every level. He’ll never be a home run guy, but he’ll start hitting more doubles, get on base 35% of the time, score 100 runs, walk 70 times, steal 30 bases and play second base more solidly every season. Perhaps most importantly, from the Jays’ perspective, he’ll be doing it for the league minimum for years.
It says here that Orlando Hudson, as terrific as he is, has one more season to figure out lefties and continue to dazzle fans with his glove, in order to increase his eventual trade value – because after spending most of 2004 at Syracuse, Russ Adams is going to be the Opening Day second baseman for the Blue Jays in 2005. He’ll take time to adjust to the majors – it might not be till 2006 before he really comes into his own – but he’s going to be an important player for this ballclub in the latter half of the decade.
David Bush, RHP, 23
New Haven 2003
7-3, 2.78, 14 GS, 81 IP, 73 H, 19 BB, 73 K, 4 HR, 21.9% KBF
Dunedin 2003
7-3, 2.81, 14 GS, 77 IP, 64 H, 9 BB, 75 K, 6 HR, 24.1% KBF
Which stat do we like the best here? How about the combined 28/148 BB/K rate in 158 innings? Or the virtually identical W-L, ERA and K/IP numbers at Dunedin and New Haven? Or the fact that David Bush did all this after having thrown exactly 35 2/3 professional innings, all of them in relief, before 2003? No, let’s put this in perspective: in his entire college career, David Bush never threw more than 74 innings in a season: he doubled that this year and thrived in the process. He’s got a great pitcher’s body (6’2”, 210 lbs), his arm has always been healthy, and he pitches for a smart organization that takes care of its valuable young hurlers, so I’m not at all worried about overwork. Bush’s repertoire is solid: low 90s fastball, high-80s slider, solid changeup – but his pinpoint control is his real advantage. His walk rate returned to something approaching normal when he arrived in New Haven – to 1 every 4 innings rather than 1 every 8 – but it’s still plenty good.
The conversion to the rotation has propelled David forward faster than anyone could have predicted, and there don’t appear to be any roadblocks in his immediate future. Assuming he doesn’t have a lights-out spring training, he’ll start the year in Syracuse and will go from there. Jason Arnold has demonstrated that the jump from AA to AAA can be treacherous, but with all respect to Jason, who will be a good pitcher in the majors soon enough, Bush has the better raw stuff to help him make that transition sooner. David should be in Toronto by September 2004, and pitching as a middle reliever or even a starter by early 2005.
Jordan DeJong, RHP, 24
New Haven 2003
4-5, 1 Sv, 3.58, 27 G, 0 GS, 27 IP, 27 H, 17 BB, 29 K, 0 HR, 23.3% KBF
Dunedin 2003
2-3, 17 Sv, 2.79, 28 G, 0 GS, 29 IP, 23 H, 18 BB, 30 K, 2 HR, 23.3% KBF
Those 18 saves and pretty KBF rates in ’03 masked a growing problem: DeJong couldn’t keep runners off base. You could overlook the nearly 1/1 IP/H ratios if he showed dominance in the BB/K and BB/IP rates; instead, DeJong walked a batter every 1.6 innings over the course of a difficult 2003. Now the good news: August was a revelation. In his last month of the season, DeJong posted these numbers: 12 IP, 8 H, 4 BB, 15 K, 30.6% KBF; his ERA dropped from 6.00 to 3.58. I don’t know what happened there – whether some coaching advice finally sunk in, or the snap came back on his breaking stuff, or what – but this was the first sign of dominance he’s showed since his great debut in Rookie Ball last season. Hopefully, it’s a harbinger of things to come, and soon: at 24, DeJong needs to move forward in a hurry. I still think his wide-ranging repertoire seems better suited to the rotation, and maybe he’ll get the chance in 2004 with some of the big rotation guns gone to Syracuse. Here’s hoping August was a trend, not a blip.
Dave Gassner, LHP, 24
10-4, 2.79, 35 G, 19 GS, 145 IP, 139 H, 28 BB, 92 K, 10 HR, 15.6% KBF
Now on the one hand, there should be no reason to be particularly positive about Dave Gassner, chosen from Purdue in the 24th round of the 2001 draft. His lack of overpowering stuff and general inability to fool hitters resulted in a measly 15.6% KBF, and these factors almost always spell disaster at any level with three letters (AAA, MLB). To illustrate, consider:
Pitcher A, 24, Tennessee (AA), 2001,
15-6, 3.37, 28 G, 26 GS, 179 IP, 162 H, 42 BB, 121 K
I’ll save you the calculations and tell you that the H/IP (0.95, 0.91), BB/IP (0.19, 0.23) and K/IP (0.63, 0.67) rates for Gassner and Pitcher A were almost identical. This doesn’t really bode well for Dave, because Pitcher A is current Gassner teammate Chris Baker, spinning his wheels at 26. So is there any reason to hope that Gassner will succeed where Baker, Vinny Chulk and countless other AA stars have failed?
Well, yes. There’s the fact that Dave’s left-handed, which is always a positive. There’s his pinpoint control, barely more than 1½ walks every 9 career innings. There’s his ability to keep the ball in the park, far better than Baker could (Baker allowed 22 HRs in 2001, while Dave allowed just 10 this season). There are the excellent reviews from coaches and scouts on his pitching smarts, his deceptive change-up and his work ethic. And there’s this record in his final 5 appearances of 2003, all starts: 4-0, 34 IP, 32 H, 0 BB, 24 K. And I have to add, there’s the fact that he was the first Jays prospect I ever picked out of a crowd and thought could make it big. If Dave has a major-league future, it’s probably in the bullpen. But I imagine the Jays will keep him in the rotation and keep promoting him until the day he can’t do the job any longer. For my money, I still think he’ll make it all the way to The Show.
Tyrell Godwin, OF, 24
New Haven 2003
123 AB, .309/.328/.431, 38 R, 6 2B, 3 3B, 1 HR, 13 RBI, 3 BB, 27 K, 6 SB, 1 CS
Dunedin 2003
322 AB, .273/.348/.332, 52 R, 16 2B, 0 3B, 1 HR, 33 RBI, 29 BB, 39 K, 20 SB, 7 CS
Not everyone blows off a New York Yankees’ first-round draft selection and lives to tell the tale. Tyrell Godwin did just that back in 1997, and before it was all over he’d been drafted twice more – once by the Rangers in 2000, and again, this time successfully, by the Blue Jays in 2001. Entering this season, both Godwin and the Jays might have been reconsidering the wisdom of their choices: after a successful campaign at Auburn in 2001, Tyrell had an injury-plagued and disappointing 2002 in Charleston.
The organization promoted him to Dunedin anyway, and challenged him to stay healthy and produce runs in ’03 – and he did, posting his best all-around pro campaign. Even better, his late-season promotion to New Haven to replace the injured John-Ford Griffin improved his average and helped unleash the power that had been dampened by the Florida State League. But it also did away with much of the plate discipline he’d displayed before – just 3 walks in 123 AB, against 27 K. Then again, his base-stealing improved markedly, in terms of his success rate. The thing of it is, Godwin has done a number of things very well in his career; he just hasn’t done them all at the same time.
Tyrell got a late start on his professional baseball life and is catching up as best he can, but the clock is working against him: if he isn’t in Syracuse by next summer, you have to think that he simply doesn’t figure into the club’s plans. No one doubts his physical tools, his intelligence or his determination; it’s just that sometimes those three great attributes simply don’t click till later on. Godwin will probably start the year at Double-A Manchester and will be expected to hit the ground running. His skill set and overall potential suggest he might be a good fit for another organization, one that doesn’t have such amazing outfield depth (Wells, Gross, Rios, Werth) ahead of him.
John-Ford Griffin, LF, 23
373 AB, .279/.361/.461, 48 R, 23 2B, 3 3B, 13 HR, 75 RBI, 49 BB, 85 K
A breakout season for Griffin ended July 29 with a stress facture in his foot, an injury that guaranteed he’d be the last member of the Ravens’ potent outfield (Alexis Rios, Gabe Gross) to move up a level. But even without the foot injury, John-Ford was a step behind his mates: his 822 OPS, though just fine, lagged well behind Rios’ 923 and Gross’s 904. An early-season batting slump had caused concern in some quarters, but his power and plate discipline were doing just fine, leading one to believe the best was yet to come. Indeed, his .230 average in May had climbed to .260 in June and almost to .280 by the end of July. True, he was whiffing a lot, but you know, he’s struck out a lot his whole career; at least now he’s adding the power to justify it. John-Ford’s 13 homers equalled his two-season career total to that point in the lower minors: his strength and physical maturity are catching up with his amazing bat speed (though it should be noted that New Haven’s home park had a short right-field porch that favoured lefty hitters).
Griffin’s foot surgery was a success, and he should be 100% in spring training. So what can we expect? Few people think he has a future as a major-league outfielder: he’s not particularly fast and his throwing arm never fully recovered from surgery a number of years ago. His future likely is at first base or even as a DH. But what John-Ford can do is hit, and after he battled slumps and injuries in 2003, I think he’s going to start hammering the ball, hitting for average and power both, at Double-A next spring; if so, I think it will be only a matter of time before he makes it to Syracuse, maybe by mid-season. His upside is Ryan Klesko; his downside is a permanent AAA slugger. I think he’ll end up closer to the former than the latter.
Diego Markwell, LHP, 23
5-7, 7.04, 28 G, 19 GS, 110 IP, 146 H, 54 BB, 69 K, 20 HR, 13.1% KBF
It says a great deal about Markwell’s year that the highlight was getting robbed by Pasqual Coco. His season was exactly as ugly as those numbers indicate. Starting or relieving, April or August, it was just one stinker of a time for Markwell, whose tenure with the organization may be over. Although he only turned 23 in August and he’s a lefty, this was Diegomar’s sixth season with the club, and JP Ricciardi has better uses for a 40-man roster spot than this. Another team will pick him up and try to coax some effectiveness out of a guy who has a good curveball and isn’t afraid to pitch inside, but it won’t be the Jays. Some teenage Latin American free-agent signings work out (Guillermo Quiroz); more often, they don’t, and that’s the kind of lottery the Blue Jays can’t afford and don’t want to participate in anymore.
Dustin McGowan, RHP, 21
New Haven 2003
7-0, 3.17, 14 GS, 76 IP, 78 H, 19 BB, 72 K, 1 HR, 22.2% KBF
Dunedin 2003
5-6, 2.85, 14 GS, 75 IP, 62 H, 25 BB, 66 K, 1 HR, 21.0% KBF
High-school pitchers, I suspect, are a whole lot like teenagers (granted, speaking as someone who has fed and clothed neither). When they first arrive, they’re often immature, cocky and pretty darn stupid. They have so many false starts and failures that you sometimes find yourself doubting whether they’ll make it at all. Then one day, usually when you’re not even looking, they turn a corner and it all comes together, and you’re filled with the kind of pride and delight that can only come from having watched someone who’s been struggling suddenly grow up and do good.
Dustin McGowan’s future was never in any real doubt – even when he fought command early on, his stuff was so overpowering he could still strike guys out – and so far as I know, there was never any question about his character. But all the same, it’s been a huge kick watching him evolve from a thrower into a pitcher. His consistently mid-90s fastball and his power curve have been supplemented with a fine changeup, and he can throw them all for strikes. Interestingly, his control actually improved slightly upon the difficult promotion to AA. Of all the pitchers currently in the Blue Jays’ farm system, McGowan is the one most likely to someday earn a comparison to Roy Halladay.
McGowan and David Bush both hit their stride together this year, and they appear to be advancing in rapid lockstep through the organization; I don’t know whether they’re good pals or just friendly rivals, but they’re apparently good for each other’s development (the same thing appeared to happen when Gabe Gross became John-Ford Griffin’s roommate). Like Bush, McGowan could conceivably break camp next spring with the big club; but even if not, he should be in Syracuse for no more than a year. Starting in 2005, Blue Jay pitching starts to get really, really interesting.
Adam Peterson, RHP, 24
New Haven 2003
2-2, 9 Sv, 4.88, 24 G, 0 GS, 24 IP, 24 H, 7 BB, 24 K, 1 HR, 22.8% KBF
Dunedin 2003
1-0, 1 Sv, 0.71, 9 G, 0 GS, 12 IP, 5 H, 0 BB, 13 K, 1 HR, 29.5% KBF
Charleston 2003
2-4, 1 Sv, 2.19, 10 G, 0 GS, 24 IP, 15 H, 13 BB, 19 K, 1 HR, 19.1% KBF
It’s safe to say that Adam Peterson’s arrival in the minor leagues did not come as a shock to the baseball cognoscenti: he was drafted four times before finally signing on with the last team to choose him, the Blue Jays. Check this out: he was taken by the Phillies in ’98 (13th round), the Royals in 2000 (14th round), the Yankees in 2001 (8th round), and finally, Toronto last June (4th round). It’s pretty clear that a lot of teams liked this guy a whole lot, and liked him more as time went on. His last season as the ace of the Wichita State staff (9-3, 3.58, 83 IP, 82 H, 23 BB, 91 K) shows why: great control, tremendous strikeout numbers. But there was also some concern that the Shockers worked him too hard in college, so the Jays started him off in the pen at Auburn, where things worked out really well.
What to make of his 2003 numbers, though? Peterson, a strapping 6’3”, 220 lbs, really had three different seasons: his sojourn in the Sally was fairly unremarkable, but he was lights-out upon his promotion to Dunedin. Then he climbed to New Haven and, though he got knocked around pretty good, both his command and his K’s were better than at Charleston. It’s difficult to analyze his effectiveness from these numbers: the sample sizes here (never more than 24 innings at any level) are just too small, and the results too varied. What we know is this: he has a moving fastball that’s consistently in the mid-90s, to go with a curveball and changeup. And we know this: when JP talked about his untradeable pitchers in the minors, he named off Jason Arnold, David Bush, Dustin McGowan and Adam Peterson. And finally, we know that the Jays don’t have a legitimate closer candidate anywhere else in their organization, and that includes Aquilino Lopez, who was okay this year but could serve the club better as a setup guy. “I personally think there’s a closer in every organization,” JP told the National Post last month. “You just have to find him.” I think that maybe he has. For my money, look for Adam Peterson in the Skydome bullpen by September.
Guillermo Quiroz, C, 21
369 AB, .282/.372/.518, 63 R, 27 2B, 0 3B, 20 HR, 79 RBI, 45 BB, 83 K
You think Don Cherry would be a huge fan of this guy? They don’t appear to come much tougher than Quiroz, who played with a collapsed lung late in the season until his breathing became so laboured he couldn’t run the bases. But Quiroz’s real victory wasn’t over his health (he recovered in time to catch one game of the Ravens’ abortive playoff series) so much as over his detractors, who said he was a waste of a $1.2M signing bonus (and I will readily admit that you can count me among them).
There was certainly reason to be skeptical: coming into 2003, GQ’s lifetime minor-league numbers were .224/.308/.360, with a 128/319 BB/K rate in 1,257 at-bats. But he was also only 20 years old, and like his teammate Alexis Rios, Quiroz took to heart his coaches’ instructions to command the strike zone and attack the good pitches. After a blistering April, Guillermo stayed steady: his OBP never dipped below .350 or his SLG below .500 throughout the course of his breakout season. His newfound batting skills simply complement an already fearsome defensive arsenal: he threw out more than 40% of baserunners this season. Despite his solid frame (6’0”, 205 lbs), he’s agile behind the plate and he reportedly handles pitchers very well. In short, Kevin Cash has about one full season to find his batting stroke. Quiroz will start 2004 at Syracuse; if he thrives there, it’s a very short trip to being Toronto’s Catcher of the Future.
Cameron Reimers, RHP, 25
10-5, 3.08, 28 G, 26 GS, 163 IP, 170 H, 38 BB, 96 K, 10 HR, 14.0% KBF
Sorry, but I’m unimpressed. This is Reimers’ third season at Double-A, and he’s still not dominating anyone, as the K/IP and BB/K will attest. Only 56 of his 68 total runs were earned; throw those extra 12 runs onto his ERA and you’d have a figure more representative of those unexciting peripherals. We pulled out Chris Baker earlier to draw a comparison with Dave Gassner, but Cameron Reimers is Chris Baker. He’ll eat innings for Manchester and maybe Syracuse for the next couple of seasons, but beyond that, I can’t see him filling any useful role for the organization.
Dominic Rich, 2B, 24
390 AB, .259/.326/.349, 49 R, 22 2B, 2 3B, 3 HR, 46 RBI, 30 BB, 48 K, 1 SB, 4 CS
He made a game of it, I’ll give him that. Mired in a miserable early slump (probably brought on by a springtime groin injury), Rich kept hacking away and slowly pushed his season average to just below .260. But while he deserves credit for battling, the fact remains that overall this was a pretty uninspiring season. Rich, as you probably know, won the Florida State League batting title last year with a .345 average and has a lifetime 160/159 BB/K rate, so many people will consider this just a blip on his radar. And maybe so; but maybe it’s also time we took a closer look at Rich’s career numbers:
236 AB, .263/.364/.343 (2000, NY-Penn, 21)
327 AB, .278/.368/.370 (2001, Sally, 22)
377 AB, .345/.437/.472 (2002, FSL, 23)
132 AB, .273/.364/.341 (2002, AA, 23)
390 AB, .259/.326/.349 (2003, AA, 24)
Does one of those seasons look like an outlier to you? The sad fact is, Rich will be 25 next summer and offers no speed, not much power and (reportedly) no defensive skills to speak of, which means he’d need to hit about .320/.390 at the major-league level to justify his presence on the roster. As exciting as Dunedin 2002 was, Dominic has not displayed much else in his pro career to make a believer out of me. It’s very possible that his 2003 was ruined by that groin injury – I can think of few ailments more aggravating and distracting – and that 2004 will see him back on track to being a middle-infield on-base machine. But right now, I have to say that this looks more like the CV of an International League veteran-in-training.
Alexis Rios, CF, 22
514 AB, .352/.401/.521, 86 R, 32 2B, 11 2B, 11 HR, 82 RBI, 39 BB, 85 K, 11 SB, 3 CS
Finally, we come to The Man. There was surprise in some quarters when JP elected to keep Alexis Rios on the 40-man roster last off-season, despite the wholly unfulfilling career he’d had up to that point. Once again, the Ricciardi eye proved to be sharper than most, though I doubt even the GM saw this monster season coming. After slumping briefly in mid-summer, raising questions about whether he was a first-half flash, Lexi went on a tear in the second half, batting over .400 in August with power to wrap up the Eastern League’s MVP Award.
Rios looks like the complete package: he’s athletic, tall (6’6”) and getting stronger all the time, yet his short, quick stroke helps him to control his huge strike zone. He finished with a BB/AB rate well below 1/10 and will probably never draw a lot of bases on balls; frankly, that doesn’t appear to be his game. But critics of sabrmetism often overlook the fact that people like Ricciardi and Beane don’t necessarily want batters to draw a ton of walks; they want batters who command the strike zone, swinging at and driving the pitches they feel confident about and letting the rest go by. Who wouldn't prefer a .350/.400 BA/OBP line over a .300/.400 line? Rios gets on base the old-fashioned way, and there’s nothing wrong with that. He’s becoming a very good baserunner, stealing less frequently but with a much-improved success rate. Defensively, he roams centrefield like a big-leaguer, showing excellent range, a pretty decent arm and the ability to make acrobatic catches. He’d make a fine major-league centrefielder, but with that job already taken in Toronto, he should end up as an exceptional defensive left fielder.
Alexis will start next year at Syracuse, but how long he remains there will depend upon his performance at AAA, as well as the outfield situation in Toronto: Reed Johnson, Vernon Wells and Bobby Kielty will be filling those positions quite nicely through the first half of next season, with Gabe Gross poised to join them at any time and Jayson Werth one hot streak away from making it five potential starting outfielders. Be prepared for the fact that Rios might well be the bait that’s needed to land a solid #2 starter, which this team seriously needs. JP does not strike me as someone afraid to pull the trigger on a major deal; he has the confidence in his front office’s ability to find more hitting talent as needed. But right now, Alexis has to be considered the top positional prospect in the Blue Jays system, a guy with the potential to someday become a reasonable facsimile of Juan Gonzalez or even Vladimir Guerrero. Watch his first month or two at Syracuse closely; if his average is down and his strikeouts are greatly outnumbering his walks, then he’s taken a step backwards and is going to need more time. But if he’s taking his walks, whacking the ball and posting strong numbers, then the outfield situation in Toronto gets very pleasantly interesting.
Two other thoughts. First, I’ve read the heated discussion in the Dunedin thread about Russ Adams, and although it made for compelling reading, it didn’t change my opinion of the player; my review of Adams was largely written beforehand and wasn’t swayed by the strong arguments against it. I will observe that Adams is a focal point of some dissension among the ranks of Bauxites, and perhaps the Blue Jays in general, about the Ricciardi regime. Most of the authors and posters at this site approve of JP’s plan and methods and think that they’ll result in playoff-calibre teams within a couple of years; but even within that collective, there are degrees of skepticism about the wisdom of certain moves and the potential of some players. This is great, of course, because it makes for terrific baseball debates on these pages and increases everyone’s understanding of and insight into the Jays’ evolution (and of course, the last word any site like this wants to hear is "groupthink"). Some of us will be right and others of us will be wrong, and I trust that we’ll all be in one camp or the other over time.
Second, this is my last installment of the 2003 Farm Reports; tomorrow, John Neary takes over and guides us through a review of the Syracuse Skychiefs, which I’m very much looking forward to reading. Thanks for all your feedback and for the many compliments; this is just a hobby for me, in between real life, but I get a kick out of it and I’m glad it provides some entertainment and a little insight into the Blue Jays’ minor-league system. Thanks for reading!
Russ Adams, SS, 23
New Haven 2003
271 AB, .277/.349/.387, 42 R, 19 2B, 4 3B, 4 HR, 26 RBI, 30 BB, 37 K, 8 SB, 1 CS
Dunedin 2003
258 AB, .279/.380/.388, 50 R, 9 2B, 5 3B, 3 HR, 16 RBI, 38 BB, 27 K, 9 SB, 2 CS
I think there's a misperception in some quarters that Russ Adams had a disappointing year. To the contrary, I think he fulfilled most of the expectations placed on him in what was (let’s not forget) his first full pro season, and exceeded others. He knocked out 44 extra-base hits over two levels, coming on particularly strong once he escaped the power-deflating effects of the Florida State League. He scored 92 runs (50 of them with offensively challenged Dunedin), again walked more times than he struck out (68/64), and stole bases at an 85% success clip (17/20). His defensive play settled down after a rough start (his lapses tend to occur more on throws than on fielding, perhaps reflecting his limited arm strength, and his range is very good), and he continued to hold his own at shortstop despite the general belief he’s destined for second base. He’s only been swinging a wooden bat for a year and a half, and already is doing well at Double-A Ball. Simply put, he’s continued to perform well in all the categories the Blue Jays need him to.
The thing about Adams, more than for almost any other Toronto prospect, is that the Dreaded Intangibles really do matter. All the smarts and instincts that brought unsolicited praise from Mike Bordick and others in spring training should only have been improving all this time. From all accounts, he understands baseball in ways that don’t yet show up in a stat column, but eventually will, because he displays a great capacity to absorb the nuances of the game. Most young players suffer a certain “stat devaluation” as they rise through the minors: 25 homers at AA often become 20 at AAA and maybe 15 in the majors; a 2.57 ERA in AA rises to 3.22 in AAA and into the low 4.00s, often, in the majors. But Adams looks like a guy who’s going to post pretty much the same basic numbers – .280/.360/(and soon enough).430 – at every level. He’ll never be a home run guy, but he’ll start hitting more doubles, get on base 35% of the time, score 100 runs, walk 70 times, steal 30 bases and play second base more solidly every season. Perhaps most importantly, from the Jays’ perspective, he’ll be doing it for the league minimum for years.
It says here that Orlando Hudson, as terrific as he is, has one more season to figure out lefties and continue to dazzle fans with his glove, in order to increase his eventual trade value – because after spending most of 2004 at Syracuse, Russ Adams is going to be the Opening Day second baseman for the Blue Jays in 2005. He’ll take time to adjust to the majors – it might not be till 2006 before he really comes into his own – but he’s going to be an important player for this ballclub in the latter half of the decade.
David Bush, RHP, 23
New Haven 2003
7-3, 2.78, 14 GS, 81 IP, 73 H, 19 BB, 73 K, 4 HR, 21.9% KBF
Dunedin 2003
7-3, 2.81, 14 GS, 77 IP, 64 H, 9 BB, 75 K, 6 HR, 24.1% KBF
Which stat do we like the best here? How about the combined 28/148 BB/K rate in 158 innings? Or the virtually identical W-L, ERA and K/IP numbers at Dunedin and New Haven? Or the fact that David Bush did all this after having thrown exactly 35 2/3 professional innings, all of them in relief, before 2003? No, let’s put this in perspective: in his entire college career, David Bush never threw more than 74 innings in a season: he doubled that this year and thrived in the process. He’s got a great pitcher’s body (6’2”, 210 lbs), his arm has always been healthy, and he pitches for a smart organization that takes care of its valuable young hurlers, so I’m not at all worried about overwork. Bush’s repertoire is solid: low 90s fastball, high-80s slider, solid changeup – but his pinpoint control is his real advantage. His walk rate returned to something approaching normal when he arrived in New Haven – to 1 every 4 innings rather than 1 every 8 – but it’s still plenty good.
The conversion to the rotation has propelled David forward faster than anyone could have predicted, and there don’t appear to be any roadblocks in his immediate future. Assuming he doesn’t have a lights-out spring training, he’ll start the year in Syracuse and will go from there. Jason Arnold has demonstrated that the jump from AA to AAA can be treacherous, but with all respect to Jason, who will be a good pitcher in the majors soon enough, Bush has the better raw stuff to help him make that transition sooner. David should be in Toronto by September 2004, and pitching as a middle reliever or even a starter by early 2005.
Jordan DeJong, RHP, 24
New Haven 2003
4-5, 1 Sv, 3.58, 27 G, 0 GS, 27 IP, 27 H, 17 BB, 29 K, 0 HR, 23.3% KBF
Dunedin 2003
2-3, 17 Sv, 2.79, 28 G, 0 GS, 29 IP, 23 H, 18 BB, 30 K, 2 HR, 23.3% KBF
Those 18 saves and pretty KBF rates in ’03 masked a growing problem: DeJong couldn’t keep runners off base. You could overlook the nearly 1/1 IP/H ratios if he showed dominance in the BB/K and BB/IP rates; instead, DeJong walked a batter every 1.6 innings over the course of a difficult 2003. Now the good news: August was a revelation. In his last month of the season, DeJong posted these numbers: 12 IP, 8 H, 4 BB, 15 K, 30.6% KBF; his ERA dropped from 6.00 to 3.58. I don’t know what happened there – whether some coaching advice finally sunk in, or the snap came back on his breaking stuff, or what – but this was the first sign of dominance he’s showed since his great debut in Rookie Ball last season. Hopefully, it’s a harbinger of things to come, and soon: at 24, DeJong needs to move forward in a hurry. I still think his wide-ranging repertoire seems better suited to the rotation, and maybe he’ll get the chance in 2004 with some of the big rotation guns gone to Syracuse. Here’s hoping August was a trend, not a blip.
Dave Gassner, LHP, 24
10-4, 2.79, 35 G, 19 GS, 145 IP, 139 H, 28 BB, 92 K, 10 HR, 15.6% KBF
Now on the one hand, there should be no reason to be particularly positive about Dave Gassner, chosen from Purdue in the 24th round of the 2001 draft. His lack of overpowering stuff and general inability to fool hitters resulted in a measly 15.6% KBF, and these factors almost always spell disaster at any level with three letters (AAA, MLB). To illustrate, consider:
Pitcher A, 24, Tennessee (AA), 2001,
15-6, 3.37, 28 G, 26 GS, 179 IP, 162 H, 42 BB, 121 K
I’ll save you the calculations and tell you that the H/IP (0.95, 0.91), BB/IP (0.19, 0.23) and K/IP (0.63, 0.67) rates for Gassner and Pitcher A were almost identical. This doesn’t really bode well for Dave, because Pitcher A is current Gassner teammate Chris Baker, spinning his wheels at 26. So is there any reason to hope that Gassner will succeed where Baker, Vinny Chulk and countless other AA stars have failed?
Well, yes. There’s the fact that Dave’s left-handed, which is always a positive. There’s his pinpoint control, barely more than 1½ walks every 9 career innings. There’s his ability to keep the ball in the park, far better than Baker could (Baker allowed 22 HRs in 2001, while Dave allowed just 10 this season). There are the excellent reviews from coaches and scouts on his pitching smarts, his deceptive change-up and his work ethic. And there’s this record in his final 5 appearances of 2003, all starts: 4-0, 34 IP, 32 H, 0 BB, 24 K. And I have to add, there’s the fact that he was the first Jays prospect I ever picked out of a crowd and thought could make it big. If Dave has a major-league future, it’s probably in the bullpen. But I imagine the Jays will keep him in the rotation and keep promoting him until the day he can’t do the job any longer. For my money, I still think he’ll make it all the way to The Show.
Tyrell Godwin, OF, 24
New Haven 2003
123 AB, .309/.328/.431, 38 R, 6 2B, 3 3B, 1 HR, 13 RBI, 3 BB, 27 K, 6 SB, 1 CS
Dunedin 2003
322 AB, .273/.348/.332, 52 R, 16 2B, 0 3B, 1 HR, 33 RBI, 29 BB, 39 K, 20 SB, 7 CS
Not everyone blows off a New York Yankees’ first-round draft selection and lives to tell the tale. Tyrell Godwin did just that back in 1997, and before it was all over he’d been drafted twice more – once by the Rangers in 2000, and again, this time successfully, by the Blue Jays in 2001. Entering this season, both Godwin and the Jays might have been reconsidering the wisdom of their choices: after a successful campaign at Auburn in 2001, Tyrell had an injury-plagued and disappointing 2002 in Charleston.
The organization promoted him to Dunedin anyway, and challenged him to stay healthy and produce runs in ’03 – and he did, posting his best all-around pro campaign. Even better, his late-season promotion to New Haven to replace the injured John-Ford Griffin improved his average and helped unleash the power that had been dampened by the Florida State League. But it also did away with much of the plate discipline he’d displayed before – just 3 walks in 123 AB, against 27 K. Then again, his base-stealing improved markedly, in terms of his success rate. The thing of it is, Godwin has done a number of things very well in his career; he just hasn’t done them all at the same time.
Tyrell got a late start on his professional baseball life and is catching up as best he can, but the clock is working against him: if he isn’t in Syracuse by next summer, you have to think that he simply doesn’t figure into the club’s plans. No one doubts his physical tools, his intelligence or his determination; it’s just that sometimes those three great attributes simply don’t click till later on. Godwin will probably start the year at Double-A Manchester and will be expected to hit the ground running. His skill set and overall potential suggest he might be a good fit for another organization, one that doesn’t have such amazing outfield depth (Wells, Gross, Rios, Werth) ahead of him.
John-Ford Griffin, LF, 23
373 AB, .279/.361/.461, 48 R, 23 2B, 3 3B, 13 HR, 75 RBI, 49 BB, 85 K
A breakout season for Griffin ended July 29 with a stress facture in his foot, an injury that guaranteed he’d be the last member of the Ravens’ potent outfield (Alexis Rios, Gabe Gross) to move up a level. But even without the foot injury, John-Ford was a step behind his mates: his 822 OPS, though just fine, lagged well behind Rios’ 923 and Gross’s 904. An early-season batting slump had caused concern in some quarters, but his power and plate discipline were doing just fine, leading one to believe the best was yet to come. Indeed, his .230 average in May had climbed to .260 in June and almost to .280 by the end of July. True, he was whiffing a lot, but you know, he’s struck out a lot his whole career; at least now he’s adding the power to justify it. John-Ford’s 13 homers equalled his two-season career total to that point in the lower minors: his strength and physical maturity are catching up with his amazing bat speed (though it should be noted that New Haven’s home park had a short right-field porch that favoured lefty hitters).
Griffin’s foot surgery was a success, and he should be 100% in spring training. So what can we expect? Few people think he has a future as a major-league outfielder: he’s not particularly fast and his throwing arm never fully recovered from surgery a number of years ago. His future likely is at first base or even as a DH. But what John-Ford can do is hit, and after he battled slumps and injuries in 2003, I think he’s going to start hammering the ball, hitting for average and power both, at Double-A next spring; if so, I think it will be only a matter of time before he makes it to Syracuse, maybe by mid-season. His upside is Ryan Klesko; his downside is a permanent AAA slugger. I think he’ll end up closer to the former than the latter.
Diego Markwell, LHP, 23
5-7, 7.04, 28 G, 19 GS, 110 IP, 146 H, 54 BB, 69 K, 20 HR, 13.1% KBF
It says a great deal about Markwell’s year that the highlight was getting robbed by Pasqual Coco. His season was exactly as ugly as those numbers indicate. Starting or relieving, April or August, it was just one stinker of a time for Markwell, whose tenure with the organization may be over. Although he only turned 23 in August and he’s a lefty, this was Diegomar’s sixth season with the club, and JP Ricciardi has better uses for a 40-man roster spot than this. Another team will pick him up and try to coax some effectiveness out of a guy who has a good curveball and isn’t afraid to pitch inside, but it won’t be the Jays. Some teenage Latin American free-agent signings work out (Guillermo Quiroz); more often, they don’t, and that’s the kind of lottery the Blue Jays can’t afford and don’t want to participate in anymore.
Dustin McGowan, RHP, 21
New Haven 2003
7-0, 3.17, 14 GS, 76 IP, 78 H, 19 BB, 72 K, 1 HR, 22.2% KBF
Dunedin 2003
5-6, 2.85, 14 GS, 75 IP, 62 H, 25 BB, 66 K, 1 HR, 21.0% KBF
High-school pitchers, I suspect, are a whole lot like teenagers (granted, speaking as someone who has fed and clothed neither). When they first arrive, they’re often immature, cocky and pretty darn stupid. They have so many false starts and failures that you sometimes find yourself doubting whether they’ll make it at all. Then one day, usually when you’re not even looking, they turn a corner and it all comes together, and you’re filled with the kind of pride and delight that can only come from having watched someone who’s been struggling suddenly grow up and do good.
Dustin McGowan’s future was never in any real doubt – even when he fought command early on, his stuff was so overpowering he could still strike guys out – and so far as I know, there was never any question about his character. But all the same, it’s been a huge kick watching him evolve from a thrower into a pitcher. His consistently mid-90s fastball and his power curve have been supplemented with a fine changeup, and he can throw them all for strikes. Interestingly, his control actually improved slightly upon the difficult promotion to AA. Of all the pitchers currently in the Blue Jays’ farm system, McGowan is the one most likely to someday earn a comparison to Roy Halladay.
McGowan and David Bush both hit their stride together this year, and they appear to be advancing in rapid lockstep through the organization; I don’t know whether they’re good pals or just friendly rivals, but they’re apparently good for each other’s development (the same thing appeared to happen when Gabe Gross became John-Ford Griffin’s roommate). Like Bush, McGowan could conceivably break camp next spring with the big club; but even if not, he should be in Syracuse for no more than a year. Starting in 2005, Blue Jay pitching starts to get really, really interesting.
Adam Peterson, RHP, 24
New Haven 2003
2-2, 9 Sv, 4.88, 24 G, 0 GS, 24 IP, 24 H, 7 BB, 24 K, 1 HR, 22.8% KBF
Dunedin 2003
1-0, 1 Sv, 0.71, 9 G, 0 GS, 12 IP, 5 H, 0 BB, 13 K, 1 HR, 29.5% KBF
Charleston 2003
2-4, 1 Sv, 2.19, 10 G, 0 GS, 24 IP, 15 H, 13 BB, 19 K, 1 HR, 19.1% KBF
It’s safe to say that Adam Peterson’s arrival in the minor leagues did not come as a shock to the baseball cognoscenti: he was drafted four times before finally signing on with the last team to choose him, the Blue Jays. Check this out: he was taken by the Phillies in ’98 (13th round), the Royals in 2000 (14th round), the Yankees in 2001 (8th round), and finally, Toronto last June (4th round). It’s pretty clear that a lot of teams liked this guy a whole lot, and liked him more as time went on. His last season as the ace of the Wichita State staff (9-3, 3.58, 83 IP, 82 H, 23 BB, 91 K) shows why: great control, tremendous strikeout numbers. But there was also some concern that the Shockers worked him too hard in college, so the Jays started him off in the pen at Auburn, where things worked out really well.
What to make of his 2003 numbers, though? Peterson, a strapping 6’3”, 220 lbs, really had three different seasons: his sojourn in the Sally was fairly unremarkable, but he was lights-out upon his promotion to Dunedin. Then he climbed to New Haven and, though he got knocked around pretty good, both his command and his K’s were better than at Charleston. It’s difficult to analyze his effectiveness from these numbers: the sample sizes here (never more than 24 innings at any level) are just too small, and the results too varied. What we know is this: he has a moving fastball that’s consistently in the mid-90s, to go with a curveball and changeup. And we know this: when JP talked about his untradeable pitchers in the minors, he named off Jason Arnold, David Bush, Dustin McGowan and Adam Peterson. And finally, we know that the Jays don’t have a legitimate closer candidate anywhere else in their organization, and that includes Aquilino Lopez, who was okay this year but could serve the club better as a setup guy. “I personally think there’s a closer in every organization,” JP told the National Post last month. “You just have to find him.” I think that maybe he has. For my money, look for Adam Peterson in the Skydome bullpen by September.
Guillermo Quiroz, C, 21
369 AB, .282/.372/.518, 63 R, 27 2B, 0 3B, 20 HR, 79 RBI, 45 BB, 83 K
You think Don Cherry would be a huge fan of this guy? They don’t appear to come much tougher than Quiroz, who played with a collapsed lung late in the season until his breathing became so laboured he couldn’t run the bases. But Quiroz’s real victory wasn’t over his health (he recovered in time to catch one game of the Ravens’ abortive playoff series) so much as over his detractors, who said he was a waste of a $1.2M signing bonus (and I will readily admit that you can count me among them).
There was certainly reason to be skeptical: coming into 2003, GQ’s lifetime minor-league numbers were .224/.308/.360, with a 128/319 BB/K rate in 1,257 at-bats. But he was also only 20 years old, and like his teammate Alexis Rios, Quiroz took to heart his coaches’ instructions to command the strike zone and attack the good pitches. After a blistering April, Guillermo stayed steady: his OBP never dipped below .350 or his SLG below .500 throughout the course of his breakout season. His newfound batting skills simply complement an already fearsome defensive arsenal: he threw out more than 40% of baserunners this season. Despite his solid frame (6’0”, 205 lbs), he’s agile behind the plate and he reportedly handles pitchers very well. In short, Kevin Cash has about one full season to find his batting stroke. Quiroz will start 2004 at Syracuse; if he thrives there, it’s a very short trip to being Toronto’s Catcher of the Future.
Cameron Reimers, RHP, 25
10-5, 3.08, 28 G, 26 GS, 163 IP, 170 H, 38 BB, 96 K, 10 HR, 14.0% KBF
Sorry, but I’m unimpressed. This is Reimers’ third season at Double-A, and he’s still not dominating anyone, as the K/IP and BB/K will attest. Only 56 of his 68 total runs were earned; throw those extra 12 runs onto his ERA and you’d have a figure more representative of those unexciting peripherals. We pulled out Chris Baker earlier to draw a comparison with Dave Gassner, but Cameron Reimers is Chris Baker. He’ll eat innings for Manchester and maybe Syracuse for the next couple of seasons, but beyond that, I can’t see him filling any useful role for the organization.
Dominic Rich, 2B, 24
390 AB, .259/.326/.349, 49 R, 22 2B, 2 3B, 3 HR, 46 RBI, 30 BB, 48 K, 1 SB, 4 CS
He made a game of it, I’ll give him that. Mired in a miserable early slump (probably brought on by a springtime groin injury), Rich kept hacking away and slowly pushed his season average to just below .260. But while he deserves credit for battling, the fact remains that overall this was a pretty uninspiring season. Rich, as you probably know, won the Florida State League batting title last year with a .345 average and has a lifetime 160/159 BB/K rate, so many people will consider this just a blip on his radar. And maybe so; but maybe it’s also time we took a closer look at Rich’s career numbers:
236 AB, .263/.364/.343 (2000, NY-Penn, 21)
327 AB, .278/.368/.370 (2001, Sally, 22)
377 AB, .345/.437/.472 (2002, FSL, 23)
132 AB, .273/.364/.341 (2002, AA, 23)
390 AB, .259/.326/.349 (2003, AA, 24)
Does one of those seasons look like an outlier to you? The sad fact is, Rich will be 25 next summer and offers no speed, not much power and (reportedly) no defensive skills to speak of, which means he’d need to hit about .320/.390 at the major-league level to justify his presence on the roster. As exciting as Dunedin 2002 was, Dominic has not displayed much else in his pro career to make a believer out of me. It’s very possible that his 2003 was ruined by that groin injury – I can think of few ailments more aggravating and distracting – and that 2004 will see him back on track to being a middle-infield on-base machine. But right now, I have to say that this looks more like the CV of an International League veteran-in-training.
Alexis Rios, CF, 22
514 AB, .352/.401/.521, 86 R, 32 2B, 11 2B, 11 HR, 82 RBI, 39 BB, 85 K, 11 SB, 3 CS
Finally, we come to The Man. There was surprise in some quarters when JP elected to keep Alexis Rios on the 40-man roster last off-season, despite the wholly unfulfilling career he’d had up to that point. Once again, the Ricciardi eye proved to be sharper than most, though I doubt even the GM saw this monster season coming. After slumping briefly in mid-summer, raising questions about whether he was a first-half flash, Lexi went on a tear in the second half, batting over .400 in August with power to wrap up the Eastern League’s MVP Award.
Rios looks like the complete package: he’s athletic, tall (6’6”) and getting stronger all the time, yet his short, quick stroke helps him to control his huge strike zone. He finished with a BB/AB rate well below 1/10 and will probably never draw a lot of bases on balls; frankly, that doesn’t appear to be his game. But critics of sabrmetism often overlook the fact that people like Ricciardi and Beane don’t necessarily want batters to draw a ton of walks; they want batters who command the strike zone, swinging at and driving the pitches they feel confident about and letting the rest go by. Who wouldn't prefer a .350/.400 BA/OBP line over a .300/.400 line? Rios gets on base the old-fashioned way, and there’s nothing wrong with that. He’s becoming a very good baserunner, stealing less frequently but with a much-improved success rate. Defensively, he roams centrefield like a big-leaguer, showing excellent range, a pretty decent arm and the ability to make acrobatic catches. He’d make a fine major-league centrefielder, but with that job already taken in Toronto, he should end up as an exceptional defensive left fielder.
Alexis will start next year at Syracuse, but how long he remains there will depend upon his performance at AAA, as well as the outfield situation in Toronto: Reed Johnson, Vernon Wells and Bobby Kielty will be filling those positions quite nicely through the first half of next season, with Gabe Gross poised to join them at any time and Jayson Werth one hot streak away from making it five potential starting outfielders. Be prepared for the fact that Rios might well be the bait that’s needed to land a solid #2 starter, which this team seriously needs. JP does not strike me as someone afraid to pull the trigger on a major deal; he has the confidence in his front office’s ability to find more hitting talent as needed. But right now, Alexis has to be considered the top positional prospect in the Blue Jays system, a guy with the potential to someday become a reasonable facsimile of Juan Gonzalez or even Vladimir Guerrero. Watch his first month or two at Syracuse closely; if his average is down and his strikeouts are greatly outnumbering his walks, then he’s taken a step backwards and is going to need more time. But if he’s taking his walks, whacking the ball and posting strong numbers, then the outfield situation in Toronto gets very pleasantly interesting.
